Canucks not out yet

[Heretic]

I find the whole '1.3%, 2%' etc thing exceedingly stupid tbh.

In the real world, teams sometimes go on 3 or 4 game winning or losing streaks.

A 3 game Phoenix/Dallas losing streak, and a 3 game Canucks win streak, and we're looking at pretty even odds.

Stranger things have happened. You never know - that's why it's absolutely essential to keep pushing every game until a team is literally out of it.

Why? It's a statistical based way of showing the possibilities.

[PlayingBurke]

What is really interesting is both Dallas and Pheonox play each other in their final game of the season...that at least helps Canucks if one loses in regulation...

[JiffyPB]

It's more likely that this team makes the play-offs than tanks.

0% chance this team purposefully loses games

2%~ chance it makes the play-offs

The tanking has already been done. There is a 98% chance by your numbers that the canucks DON'T make the playoffs. The team will definitively lose at least one game in regulation whether you like it or not and 92 points isn't good enough to make it as the 8th seed. Tanking doesn't necessarily happen on purpose because in this case the team genuinely sucks enough to miss the playoffs and get a top 8 pick without even trying.

Put it in perspective, this team couldn't hold a 3-0 lead against the ISLANDERS. They tied a franchise record for most goals against from the likes of freaking Okposo, Hamonic, and JOSH BAILEY!!!!! :picard: :picard:

AND THIS TEAM IS A PLAYOFF TEAM AFTER THAT EMBARRASSMENT ROFL. Imagine what a real playoff team would do to us

2 shootout wins against mediocre playoff bubble teams and a regulation win against a garbage team later and people think this team is still a playoff team? Get over it. We face the avalanche, ducks, and wild next week. Don't be shocked if we don't beat all of them. Also, if this team loses that 1 regulation game that they can not lose at all costs against the likes of the Sabres, that says a lot about this team and how some of you should re-evaluate what you think about this roster as it is lol.

[CanucksCaptain]

Given how much luck we've had as Canucks fan. We might have a chance of making the playoffs if we start a "Canucks will never make the playoffs guranteed" thread.

[L. Stanley]

Seriously it's really depressing how so many people are counting out the canucks. I mean yes the chances are very slim but come on, don't be saying stuff like "winning games at this point is useless" and other discouraging stuff about how the organization needs to start losing games on purpose.

if you look at it if we get on a streak we're very much in this. also if you think about it, as much as highly touted prospect sounds great and all, that's another player taking a potential job of one of our current players so finishing strong will most likely be the case for this team.

Anyways that's all i wanted to say, don't give up just yet. We still got a chance, and if we get in expect us to do some damage (la kings)

I would love for a young prospect to come and take someone's job, thats how these things work duder

[CrazyAL]

Yeah they need to tank and get that 9th over all instead of the 12th overall.

trying is for losers, losing is for winners!

[Dogbyte]

Why? It's a statistical based way of showing the possibilities.

Hockey games aren't random and the percentages are recalculated daily. All you're doing is presenting a statiscal probability that doesn't take into account how the teams are playing, who they are playing, or who is injured. It also assumes fair competition but no teams schedule is the same. As Oldnews mentioned it takes no account for winning streaks and assumes all equations are linear which they aren't.

You can't forsee win streaks but over an 80 game schedule a 3 or 4 game winstreak will greatly affect your probability outcome at that moment. When all the teams are playing games at pretty much the same pace that's impossible to predict. If your team is about to go on a 4 game winstreak you should be using that new percentage 3 games into the future as your basis to predict future points, making your current prediction useless and untrue.

Also add to that in this league where they give away points like candy teams are closely grouped 3-5 points apart. If you look at probability and look at the peaks and valleys like 3 or 4 game win streaks over a season it really comes down to when a team will go on the next one. Going on a win streak at game 79 of the season could mean you're in whereas if your team were destined to go on your next streak at game 83 you could miss the playoffs because of that. It is almost impossible to predict when these streaks will start as there are so many factors invovled.

[asian player]

I just want Jake Virtanen

[5Fivehole0]

It's unlikely because the chances of winning 5 in a row is 3.125%...

STAHP WITH THE PERCENTAGES!!

You have the same chance of winning a hockey game EVERY SINGLE NIGHT.

There is not a 3.125% chance of winning the next 5 games. There is a chance for both teams to win each game.

What's our % chance to beat St. Louis?? Because we have won every game we have played them.

The Canucks chance to make the play-offs is what they make them. It is not unrealistic to say we win 5 in a row, because they have won 5 in a row before. Hell this core has won 14 in a row before... Anything is possible, all you people believing that these %'s are set in stone are just being negative nancies... Realists, as you call yourselves, would believe anything can happen. IT'S SPORTS.

[5Fivehole0]

The tanking has already been done. There is a 98% chance by your numbers that the canucks DON'T make the playoffs. The team will definitively lose at least one game in regulation whether you like it or not and 92 points isn't good enough to make it as the 8th seed. Tanking doesn't necessarily happen on purpose because in this case the team genuinely sucks enough to miss the playoffs and get a top 8 pick without even trying.

Put it in perspective, this team couldn't hold a 3-0 lead against the ISLANDERS. They tied a franchise record for most goals against from the likes of freaking Okposo, Hamonic, and JOSH BAILEY!!!!! :picard: :picard:

AND THIS TEAM IS A PLAYOFF TEAM AFTER THAT EMBARRASSMENT ROFL. Imagine what a real playoff team would do to us

2 shootout wins against mediocre playoff bubble teams and a regulation win against a garbage team later and people think this team is still a playoff team? Get over it. We face the avalanche, ducks, and wild next week. Don't be shocked if we don't beat all of them. Also, if this team loses that 1 regulation game that they can not lose at all costs against the likes of the Sabres, that says a lot about this team and how some of you should re-evaluate what you think about this roster as it is lol.

I think this roster is missing some key pieces in Santorelli, Daniel Sedin etc. I think that a full line up with all players out of their slump could easily beat Anaheim, St Louis, Chicago, etc...

All you people are jumping off the Canuck band wagon so fast. You guys actually believe we are worse than Florida, Edmonton, and Calgary. But last December we were the best team in the NHL. Bad streaks happen, I think the Canucks just had no puck luck this year, and the loss of Santorelli was bigger than people thought. He was .6 points per game, that's a lot to lose when you think about it. He also freed up Kesler to be more offensive.

I for one am very much so looking forward to the possibility of a Stanley Cup next year. All you people screaming 5 year rebuild are bonkers.

We have huge amount of cap space to sign the likes of Vanek, Callahan etc. We have Jensen who looks like great offensively and defensively out there. Lack, despite some struggles still looks very solid.

I don't understand why people seem to think that this team is going to be a bottom of the barrel team. This team still has a lot left in the tank. The Sedins are going to bounce back next year and already are. A lot of what was happening was confidence, look at the swagger Henrik has again, he is confident in his abilities therefore is making the great plays he knows he can.

TL;DR The Canucks aren't nearly as bad as you guys say.

[Dogbyte]

I don't understand why people seem to think that this team is going to be a bottom of the barrel team. This team still has a lot left in the tank. The Sedins are going to bounce back next year and already are.

TL;DR The Canucks aren't nearly as bad as you guys say.

Yeah, Daniel has looked like his old self the last couple games. Great to see.

[Heretic]

Hockey games aren't random and the percentages are recalculated daily. All you're doing is presenting a statiscal probability that doesn't take into account how the teams are playing, who they are playing, or who is injured. It also assumes fair competition but no teams schedule is the same. As Oldnews mentioned it takes no account for winning streaks and assumes all equations are linear which they aren't.

You can't forsee win streaks but over an 80 game schedule a 3 or 4 game winstreak will greatly affect your probability outcome at that moment. When all the teams are playing games at pretty much the same pace that's impossible to predict. If your team is about to go on a 4 game winstreak you should be using that new percentage 3 games into the future as your basis to predict future points, making your current prediction useless and untrue.

Also add to that in this league where they give away points like candy teams are closely grouped 3-5 points apart. If you look at probability and look at the peaks and valleys like 3 or 4 game win streaks over a season it really comes down to when a team will go on the next one. Going on a win streak at game 79 of the season could mean you're in whereas if your team were destined to go on your next streak at game 83 you could miss the playoffs because of that. It is almost impossible to predict when these streaks will start as there are so many factors invovled.

True, but...it's pretty close...and interesting to watch.

From that site:

Welcome. This site sheds light on 3 things:

• A team’s odds of making the playoffs.
• How today’s games impact those odds.
• How well they need to finish the season to have a shot

• The algorithm does not know about things like trades, injuries, and matchups. It does not know that a team has started believing in themselves.
• "Out" does not necessarily mean mathematically eliminated. It just means in the millions of times I played out the season the team never made the playoffs. Likewise for "In".
• The code could have bugs. The nice thing is the numbers are broken down such that bugs don’t stay hidden long. If you find a new one I’ll buy you a beer. Domestic. Milwaukee’s Best, Schaefer, something like that.

t has 2 limitations:

The first is mostly a technicality. On the NHL Playoff Chances page I show odds for getting each seed. If I could run the simulation for an infinite number of seasons you likely would see a few extra 0's show up under seeds that previously where blank. You usually don't care, those new 0's are 1 in a million long shots, but you can't use the site to say a team is mathematically in or out. When the page shows "In" or "Out" it just means the simulation never found a case where they missed/made the playoffs.

The second limitation is important. I play each remaining game by flipping a coin.* The 50/50 version uses a true coin. Not very accurate. The weighted version uses a loaded coin. THIS IS THE KEY: If I magically knew the precise value to load each game's coin then every number on the site (the odds, the big games, the what ifs) would be perfectly accurate. But I can't know that, so for now I load each game's coin based on the 2 opponent's records.** Errors creep in when a team's true current strength is different from what their record implies. You have to read the numbers with this in mind. To take an extreme example, the Blues "chance will make playoffs" graph probably dips too low mid-season, because the system does not factor in injuries. If I were a Blues fan mid season I might say "these players are coming back, I bet they will give us X extra points in the second half of the season. I'm going to adjust Sports Club Stats numbers by looking X points higher up the "What If" table.

OK, but, again, how accurate is it?

I don't know yet. I find it accurate enough to be a useful, interesting tool. The more I use it the more it surprises me with unexpected results that turn out to make sense.

Detail overload:

* For hockey I also give each game a 22% chance of going into OT (22ish percent of games went into OT in 2007-2008). And I randomly give the winner between 1-5 goals and the loser something less. I care about goals because it is one of the tiebreakers. Finally, for the weighted version I give the home team a 4% boost in their chance of winning, to match the league average. (Other leagues have their own values for ot/tie probability, typical points scored per game, and home field advantage.)

** For many sports it is actually based on each opponent's goals delta because, on average, that is a more accurate reflection of a team's true strength. And it applies a mathematical trick called "regression towards the mean" to give less credence to records early in the season when few games have been played. To "load the coin" it uses a mathematical trick called log5 to turn the 2 team "records" into the chance that the home team will win the game.

[Ryan kesler the beast]

Coyotes play bruins rangers penguins devils wild kings Dallas and sharks. How many of just those games you guys think there win?

Dallas plays flyers jets Blackhawks blues Tampa bay and down 1-0 to blue jackets.

So there's a chance these teams slip and especially if Thomas keeps playing below average.

Thing is we need to beat the ducks which I don't see us all doing

[TheTruthHurts]

It's more likely that this team makes the play-offs than tanks.

0% chance this team purposefully loses games

2%~ chance it makes the play-offs

Just wondering if you could point me to the logic that allows you to assign quantifiable values to categorical items.

[CatsPajamas]

[cbdoubleu]

Go Panthers, Flyers, Devils.

[Ben Kenobi]

You fight till you're eliminated. Right now the Canucks are not mathematically eliminated, so they need to work hard and pick up a couple of points here.

[CatsPajamas]

In order to make the playoffs, the Canucks must beat the Ducks twice, who if they did make it, would most likely be their first round opponent. Canucks would go into the playoffs the hottest team in the league having very recently beat their opponent twice. I like those odds. I also like the Canucks vs the Ducks match up because as long as the Sedins can produce at a similar pace to Getzlaf and Perry or eliminate them (no doubt they'll get played against the Sedins), Anaheim will have nothing to stop Beast Modo. In Vancouver Kesler can eliminate Getzlaf and Perry and the Sedins can run wild on Beauchemin.

[CrazyAL]

BELIEVE!

[ForsbergTheGreat]

We basically need 1 team to really slip and looking at some of the teams schedules it could happen.

LA is currently on a 3 games losing streak. They play CAPS X2, FLA, PHI, PITS in their next 5.

It’s not that realistic but not impossible, Caps are on a 3 game winning streak,

if LA could go 1-4 or 0-5 they would be at 82 or 84 points with 74 games played.

If canucks win their next 3 that would put us 2-4 points behind the kings with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining. We also play the kings April 5th. We could we catch them.

MIN, similar to the kings situation, Wild play NJ, DET x2, VAN, STL

MIN could go 1-4 or 0-5 they would be at 82 or 84 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 2-4 points behind the Wild with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining.

PHX likely has the hardest next 5 games FLA, BOS, NYR, PITS, NJ

We need to count on or old goalies to come up big and hope PHX goes 1-4 or 0-5.

If they do they’d only be at 77-79 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 1-3 “AHEAD” of the coyotes with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining

DAL is also cold and had a few rough games getting pummelled back to back, their next 5 they face PHI, OTT, WPG, CHI, NSH

Stars could go 1-4 or 2-3 they would be at 77 or 79 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 1-3 “AHEAD” of the stars with only 2 games in hand and 7 games remaining.

We also need to remember that they have a postpone game to finished where they will start the second period down by a goal.

The other thing to remember is all the teams play each other at least once more in their remaining 7 games, it is important that those games do not go into OT and it will guarantee a loss for one of those teams a game canucks will need to take advantage of.

Other things to note

Luongo plays PHX, DAL, and LA yet this year

Schneider plays PHX and MIN yes this year

Could our old goalies do us a favor and help us out?

The likely hood the canucks make the playoffs is slim, but no one could deny the excitement if they pulled off a miracle and did, especially if they go in hot. Anyone who says they want the team to lose the rest of the games would be right back on the bandwagon, once again cheering for this team to win. I’m not guaranteeing canucks make playoffs but, there’s still a chance. I’d rather look foolish believing/hoping in something with the odds stack against us, than to look foolish by writing a team off and have them prove me wrong and embarrassingly hop back on the cheering train.

End of story.