zombieksa Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 So Canucks army put out an article the other day giving an argument for Markus Naslund to make the HHOF so I decided to dip into HHOF chances a little deeper what I found was an article hockey prospectus' Matt Pfeffer made using PVT values to create a system to determine a players credibility for the HHOF and also includes a chance% of making HHOF. Article: http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=1609 Using his formulas he created an app to explore his findings in adjustable graph for both eligible/not eligible players as well as players already inducted into the HHOF. Graph: http://public.tableausoftware.com/profile/matt.pfeffer#!/vizhome/HHOFAnalytics/Dashboard1 Some interesting nuggets: - Roberto Luongo is one of 6 players with (by these metrics) a 100% chance of making the HHOF (the others include Selanne, Jagr, Brodeur, Hasek, and Lidstrom) - Hank and Dank currently sit at approx. 61% and 71% respectively, notable players in this range include Heatley, Lecavelier, Marleau, Nolan, Giguere, Thomas, and Nabokov.) Under these parameters it isn't impossible to see the Sedins put up 2 or 3 more seasons as Vancouver's top scoring players and their chances could increase, but I was surprised that they were still so low at this point in their careers. Still, with 4 more years to pad their stats I could see them both over 80% by the end of their career (Mogilny territory.) Thought this was a cool little graph i'd share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watermelon Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Like I've always said, Luongo will end up as a Top-5 goalie to ever play and we traded him because 2 backups played good for a sum of like 50 games combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Mind Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Good to see Lu has a great chance of making it, he deserves it considering he'll likely be in the top 5 for wins all time when he retires. As for the Sedins, I'm a little surprised by how they are 10% off of each other. Not that it matters since if one makes it, the other will too. If they can put up 60-70 points a year for the rest of their current contracts, they should make it in. I'd say they have a much better shot than any of the comparables mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thema Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Some very wishful thinking from the Cult of Lou; he has never won a Cup (and you could argue that he has definitely LOST one) nor has he ever won a single individual award. He also has never taken a bad team anywhere (at least not yet). As for Naslund I fear the Cult of Saint Markus will be in for a major disapointment; it is my humble opinion that he will never even be considered for such an honour seeing as he too has never won anything other than the Pearson trophy and his last FIVE seasons were disappointments. The likeliest candidates from the Canucks are indeed the Sedins who actually HAVE won significant awards and are showing no signs of slowing down too terribly just yet. For Lou and Nazzy to be inducted into the HHOF they would have to lower the standards of the hallowed hall considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toews Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Imo Henrik and Daniel are more deserving of getting into the HHOF than Luongo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Mind Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Some very wishful thinking from the Cult of Lou; he has never won a Cup (and you could argue that he has definitely LOST one) nor has he ever won a single individual award. He also has never taken a bad team anywhere (at least not yet). As for Naslund I fear the Cult of Saint Markus will be in for a major disapointment; it is my humble opinion that he will never even be considered for such an honour seeing as he too has never won anything other than the Pearson trophy and his last FIVE seasons were disappointments. The likeliest candidates from the Canucks are indeed the Sedins who actually HAVE won significant awards and are showing no signs of slowing down too terribly just yet. For Lou and Nazzy to be inducted into the HHOF they would have to lower the standards of the hallowed hall considerably. Stanley Cups are team awards, and shouldn't be counted against a player if they've never won it before. And putting a lot of emphasis on individual awards leads to skewed results on a players career. Lu's 2006-07 season (yes he has taken a bad team to the playoffs) was far better than recent vezina winners, yet he didn't win simply because of Brodeur being slightly better than him that year. I certainly wouldn't say Bobrovsky has a better chance at making the HOF because of his lockout-shortened vezina winning season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zombieksa Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 Some very wishful thinking from the Cult of Lou; he has never won a Cup (and you could argue that he has definitely LOST one) nor has he ever won a single individual award. He also has never taken a bad team anywhere (at least not yet). As for Naslund I fear the Cult of Saint Markus will be in for a major disapointment; it is my humble opinion that he will never even be considered for such an honour seeing as he too has never won anything other than the Pearson trophy and his last FIVE seasons were disappointments. The likeliest candidates from the Canucks are indeed the Sedins who actually HAVE won significant awards and are showing no signs of slowing down too terribly just yet. For Lou and Nazzy to be inducted into the HHOF they would have to lower the standards of the hallowed hall considerably. There are goalies in the HHOF that have less wins, gp, shots againsts, shutouts as well as goalies with worse gaa and sv% Lu has another half a dozen seasons to increase those numbers, I think Lu will be a 1st or 2nd ballot guy. Imo Henrik and Daniel are more deserving of getting into the HHOF than Luongo. No, I don't think so, not yet anyways. another 200 pts each and a few more playoff rounds won and I'll say they are equally as deserving. Goalie is the more important position and from a career standpoint Luongo has stats that match some of the greats. The sedins have yet to push themselves of of the crowd in terms of greatness. Stanley Cups are team awards, and shouldn't be counted against a player if they've never won it before. And putting a lot of emphasis on individual awards leads to skewed results on a players career. Lu's 2006-07 season (yes he has taken a bad team to the playoffs) was far better than recent vezina winners, yet he didn't win simply because of Brodeur being slightly better than him that year. I certainly wouldn't say Bobrovsky has a better chance at making the HOF because of his lockout-shortened vezina winning season. Couldn't say this better. Alfredsson, Iginla, Jumbo Joe. No one would doubt these 3 will end up in the hhof despite none of them winning or likely to win a cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riviera82 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Luongo needs a cup and or a Vezina to have a shot at the HOF. Now that he's back in Florida and in his mid 30s that looks rather unlikely. I dont think there are many players who have been inducted into the hall strictly on the merit of their regular season career without any cups or individual awards, and in Luongo's case a very suspect track record in the playoffs. In my opinion Mike Vernon and Cujo should get in first and then maybe Luongo can get a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canuck Surfer Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 I am not sure I would categorize Lou as having a 100% chance... And even though I would categorize myself as a detractor, hard not to acknowledge his chances. Up until a year or so ago he was 2knd all time, to HHOF member Dominek Hasek, in save %. All time! And not with a small sample size either or playing the bulk of his career behind strong teams. He does have his Olympic gold medal (s). I think he'll be a deserving candidate! The Twins, albeit with bigger individual records, scoring titles, similar gold medals (none of the three were standout contributors really), MVP awards, nominations and we can't forget they were co-MVP's of the SEL at 18 or any novelty factor? Still, they have elite playing status only over a portion, not the bulk of their careers. IMO they have a reasonably solid chance to make the HHOF. But only if they can pull off the renaissance we Canuck fans cheer for over the next two to 3 years. 14 years into his career for example, Danny is still some 600 odd points behind other fringe guys like Ducky Dale Hawerchuck. I'll cheer for them though! An 800 or 1000 point career is not the same as finishing top 5 all time in wins, maybe games played or save % which Lou seems destined to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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