goalie13 Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Only time will tell, but I think the NDP has made a colossal miscalculation. I think the NDP would have been better off to not sign their deal with the Greens and just let Christy try to govern with her slim minority. It wouldn't take long, and an issue would have come up that would have been election worthy. I bet it would have taken less than a year. The NDP & Greens could have toppled the government then and the NDP would likely win a majority. Now, the Liberals will potentially have a chance to find themselves a new leader and do a little re-branding while sitting in opposition. Then, once the NDP does something that doesn't sit well with the Greens, or if there's a by-election that changes the numbers we will be back at the polls and I think the NDP would lose. In BC Politics, opposition parties are kind of like backup goaltenders. They are great until they are asked to be the starter. We will just have to see how Horgan does now as the starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmonberries Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 1 minute ago, goalie13 said: Only time will tell, but I think the NDP has made a colossal miscalculation. I think the NDP would have been better off to not sign their deal with the Greens and just let Christy try to govern with her slim minority. It wouldn't take long, and an issue would have come up that would have been election worthy. I bet it would have taken less than a year. The NDP & Greens could have toppled the government then and the NDP would likely win a majority. Now, the Liberals will potentially have a chance to find themselves a new leader and do a little re-branding while sitting in opposition. Then, once the NDP does something that doesn't sit well with the Greens, or if there's a by-election that changes the numbers we will be back at the polls and I think the NDP would lose. In BC Politics, opposition parties are kind of like backup goaltenders. They are great until they are asked to be the starter. We will just have to see how Horgan does now as the starter. I think you may be right. It looks like they could be playing the short game here and they'd likely be dead ducks as separate vote splitting entities once again facing a rejuvenated Liberal party sans Clark. The only chance they would have is in a union under a single banner but the Greens seem too stubborn/ideological for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalie13 Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Just now, Salmonberries said: I think you may be right. It looks like they could be playing the short game here and they'd likely be dead ducks as separate vote splitting entities once again facing a rejuvenated Liberal party sans Clark. The only chance they would have is in a union under a single banner but the Greens seem too stubborn/ideological for that. I don't know if it's even stubborn / ideological. I think the Greens look at this election as a sign of better things to come for them. They just tripled their seats. They are going to get faux-official party status. They won't want to just disappear like the Reform party now. I can't see them keeping their coalition with the NDP beyond the next election, unless they are in a similar predicament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapper Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 disagree - the party that causes an early election will pay a huge price at the polls. If the NDP get atleast 2 years before the next election then they will have to rely on their record vs having the public punish them. If they are smart they would use the next 2 years to rebrand and get a new leader. BC is not keen on extreme right wing politics so the shift back towards the center is here for the time being. They should take a page from Justin and out flank the NDP on the left lol. It worked for Justin to draw in voters. The speaker issue is a dead issue - speaker has the legal right to cast a vote in any tie - otherwise you would have to have a 2 seat majority to be declared a majority government, 150 years of history has accepted a simple majority as a holding the house - so by virtue it provides that the speaker can vote. Just because its rarer then hens teeth doesn't make it illegal. If the Libs were smart they would have kept the speaker position to ensure some ability to steer the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted June 30, 2017 Author Share Posted June 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, goalie13 said: Only time will tell, but I think the NDP has made a colossal miscalculation. I think the NDP would have been better off to not sign their deal with the Greens and just let Christy try to govern with her slim minority. It wouldn't take long, and an issue would have come up that would have been election worthy. I bet it would have taken less than a year. The NDP & Greens could have toppled the government then and the NDP would likely win a majority. Now, the Liberals will potentially have a chance to find themselves a new leader and do a little re-branding while sitting in opposition. Then, once the NDP does something that doesn't sit well with the Greens, or if there's a by-election that changes the numbers we will be back at the polls and I think the NDP would lose. In BC Politics, opposition parties are kind of like backup goaltenders. They are great until they are asked to be the starter. We will just have to see how Horgan does now as the starter. I think this is correct. I don't see the Greens in particular gaining any ground whatsoever in the next election, and expect them to lose some support. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they end up well under 10% of the vote next time. On the other side, when I look at Clark as a leader, her main failing from a political strategy pov (not policy) is she was always too late to adjust. When it looks like you were forced to change your stance it makes you look desperate, even when its what people want. It will be interesting to see who emerges from this as the next leader, I hope its someone new from outside the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmonberries Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Just now, goalie13 said: I don't know if it's even stubborn / ideological. I think the Greens look at this election as a sign of better things to come for them. They just tripled their seats. They are going to get faux-official party status. They won't want to just disappear like the Reform party now. I can't see them keeping their coalition with the NDP beyond the next election, unless they are in a similar predicament. But the coalition only works post election if all goes well. The vote splitting on the center-left remains. If there's anything that history teaches us about BCD politics it's that right wing coalitions form dynasties that govern for generations. The left needs to accept this reality if it wants to hold power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapper Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 The Liberals need to decide if they want to return for a good time or a long time as they wont get both. Their big problem will now to hold the right wing coalition together. The BC Liberals are not united I suspect and their next leader may cause deeper divides. Move back to the far right - lose the moderates who want to win power now and are true liberals Move to the center and lose the hard core far right Gordon Campbell was elected to fire the NDP - Christy got elected by selling herself as being in the center then governing from the right. Voters began turning from the liberals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapper Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Salmonberries said: But the coalition only works post election if all goes well. The vote splitting on the center-left remains. If there's anything that history teaches us about BCD politics it's that right wing coalitions form dynasties that govern for generations. The left needs to accept this reality if it wants to hold power. Only if they find a salesperson who can speak from center but govern form the right. If you look at federal politics the right wing coalitions swing back in every 12 or so years for a term or 2 majority then get tossed. BC has been a 2 party only race for 16 years and with the growth of the greens its no longer elections as normal. We will see our patterns most likely follow federal lines now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salmonberries Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 1 minute ago, iwtl said: The Liberals need to decide if they want to return for a good time or a long time as they wont get both. Their big problem will now to hold the right wing coalition together. The BC Liberals are not united I suspect and their next leader may cause deeper divides. Move back to the far right - lose the moderates who want to win power now and are true liberals Move to the center and lose the hard core far right Gordon Campbell was elected to fire the NDP - Christy got elected by selling herself as being in the center then governing from the right. Voters began turning from the liberals. This is incredibly counter intuitive in BC politics. The Bennett's created dynasties following just the opposite playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Looks like Christy asked for an election and got rebuffed by the LG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapper Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 But as I mention - I no longer believe the old patters will hold true for a generation or so. Voter base has changed. My gut tells me 6 years of NDP ( 2 then a 4 year majority ) followed by 12 from another party. Not sure if the far right can hold a right wing coalition now - they may have to accept a move back to the center in order to form government again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapper Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Harvey Spector said: Looks like Christy asked for an election and got rebuffed by the LG... WOW if this is true - I suspect the Libs just dodged a massive hit .... Voters would not be pleased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted June 30, 2017 Author Share Posted June 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, iwtl said: If they are smart they would use the next 2 years to rebrand and get a new leader. BC is not keen on extreme right wing politics so the shift back towards the center is here for the time being. They should take a page from Justin and out flank the NDP on the left lol. It worked for Justin to draw in voters. this is correct I think, but it has to be someone the conservative side of the Lib's doesn't think will spend like Justin does. Someone like Dianne Watts might be a very good choice if she wants to leave federal politics. She did a great job in Surrey and I think would have a wide provincial appeal and give Horgan a tough fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted June 30, 2017 Author Share Posted June 30, 2017 1 minute ago, iwtl said: WOW if this is true - I suspect the Libs just dodged a massive hit .... Voters would not be pleased good god. As much as I didn't want to see the NDP win, I really want this person gone from politics. She's going to kill the Liberal party if she's allowed to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 29 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said: Sure did. But if you remember I hate both parties in B.C. Just pointing out how heavy handed the comment sounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 1 minute ago, iwtl said: WOW if this is true - I suspect the Libs just dodged a massive hit .... Voters would not be pleased Her final lie as Premier. A snake until the very end. She was in there for 90 minutes. The LG must have been pissed at her... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johngould21 Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 She's done like dinner! The knives have been out for 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted June 30, 2017 Author Share Posted June 30, 2017 There has to be an interim leader appointed tomorrow for the Libs, if they don't I can't see how they think they can survive this going forward. Can you imagine QP with her as the leader? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapper Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 If this is proven - I would think the BC Liberal party is finished. They can't recover if its true she pleaded for an election Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted June 30, 2017 Author Share Posted June 30, 2017 43 minutes ago, Warhippy said: I'd just read she'd resigned as premiere but also politics. Will double check I think she's keeping her seat... for now anyway. Well Hip, you got your guy! congrats. I sincerely hope you get some decent work from this and things get better for you and your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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