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[Discussion] Will the Next one be the Worst Recession in History?


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Senate Democrats to offer a $750B stimulus package

Mon 16 Mar 2020 18:59:32 GMT


That's bigger than TARP

Bloomberg reports that Chuck Schumer will offer a $750 billion proposal to tackle the coronavirus, including:
  • Direct cash transfers
  • Unemployment benefits
  • Medicaid funding boost
  • COVID-19 testing
  • Federal loan forbearance
  • Small biz help
  • Emergency child care
  • Meds/food delivery for seniors
I feel like this is only the beginning. A $50B aviation bailout is already in the works. The deficit is going to hit $2 trillion, easily. I may be underestimating that by half as revenues collapse.
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We're on the verge of helicopter money

Tue 17 Mar 2020 14:19:50 GMT

Support is building

Jake Sherman at Politico reports today that support is building in Washington to cut a $1000 cheque to every adult American.
helicopter money
Mitch McConnell just said Congress needs to provide direct assistance to workers, families and help small business.
In Canada today there were hints about several similar plans that could be rolled out tomorrow. In Denmark, companies are getting state aid to pay 75% of salaries.
I wrote last week about one of my worries right now: That governments everywhere aren't going to be able to process jobless claims fast enough. The wave that's about to hit will be unprecedented.
If you don't recognize him the guy in the picture is former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. AKA Helicopter Ben.
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Well per the thread title... yep




Morgan Stanley, Goldman Declare Global Recession Under Way 


What’ Bloomberg’s Economists Say...

“We are downgrading our forecast for China’s 2020 growth. Our previous forecast for the year was growth at 5.2%. Our new forecast is 1.4%. That includes a 11% contraction in the first quarter.”

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Mnuchin warns senators lack of action could result in 20% unemployment rate, source says

Washington (CNN)Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday morning that without action the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN.

Mnuchin's comments came as he urged Republican senators to act on economic stimulus measures totaling $1 trillion designed to avert that kind of worst case scenario.
CNN has reached out to the Treasury Department for comment.
In the same meeting, Mnuchin also said he is concerned the economic ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic could be worse than the 2008 financial crisis, the source said.
Mnuchin's comments, first reported by Bloomberg News, come amid a rising sense of urgency at the White House and on Capitol Hill to confront the increasingly serious threat of the coronavirus pandemic -- on both the public health and economic fronts.
A 20% unemployment rate would be double the unemployment rate during the Great Recession and the highest in the US since the Great Depression. A 20% unemployment rate would leave more than 32 million Americans out of a job based on the current US labor force.
Great recession 2009 unemployment rate reached 10.2%
Great Depression 1933 unemployment rate hit 24.9%
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