[Proposal] Shocking Moves that Rock the Core

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, Toews said:

Yikes, sounds like I did hurt someone's feelings. Lol. I did not say you need to accept anyone's opinions as fact. What is the point of posting a proposal if it is not to get feedback on it? What is the point of then attacking and dismissing someone who goes to the effort of actually posting feedback? The funny thing is you go into random threads in the trades/signings forum and you take passive aggressive shots at someone trying to give you some constructive criticism. I am just going to keep it simple, I think your proposals are stupidly one-sided and would probably not even work in NHL 23. 

I'm not attacking anybody though.  I am simply disagreeing and I even provide examples of why.  What you are insisting is that I just take peoples feedback as gospel and that whatever I proposed is wrong.  I firmly believe the market is tapped out.  There's next to no cap space available unless significant sweeteners are provided.   Boston has no 1st or 2nd round picks to provide as sweeteners, so if they want teams to eat millions in cap space, it's gonna cost them a LOT.  

[mll]

12 hours ago, HKSR said:

Completely your opinion only.  I'd put down good money that Boston can't move any of their high priced forwards other than Debrusk.  They could possibly move a few of their defencemen, but it really doesn't help them that much.  FYI, valuable players are dumped all the time because of cap issues.  See Bjorkstrand and Pacioretty as 2 recent examples. 

Guess we'll wait and see who's right here.  

Pacioretty was turning 34 coming off an injury riddled season (only 39 games played) and a 7M cap hit with Vegas wanting to clear the full 7M.  Vegas didn't want to keep him in the West either. 

 

Swayman and DeBrusk are younger and it's easier to find room to fit 4M (Swayman possibly even less).  They seem more in the Fiala situation.  The Wild were just as cap strapped but still got the return they wanted.

 

Bjorkstrand was traded nearly 10 days after free agency opened up - teams had already filled up their rosters.  He probably would have brought back a better return if he had been traded at the draft/before free agency but CBJ didn't know they could land Gaudreau.

 

Boston is likely going to have a tough time moving the players they would prefer to part with (Hall, Reilly etc) but if they are forced to move DeBrusk/Swayman they should be able to get decent returns.

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by mll

[HKSR]

7 hours ago, mll said:

Pacioretty was turning 34 coming off an injury riddled season (only 39 games played) and a 7M cap hit with Vegas wanting to clear the full 7M.  Vegas didn't want to keep him in the West either. 

 

Swayman and DeBrusk are younger and it's easier to find room to fit 4M (Swayman possibly even less).  They seem more in the Fiala situation.  The Wild were just as cap strapped but still got the return they wanted.

 

Bjorkstrand was traded nearly 10 days after free agency opened up - teams had already filled up their rosters.  He probably would have brought back a better return if he had been traded at the draft/before free agency but CBJ didn't know they could land Gaudreau.

 

Boston is likely going to have a tough time moving the players they would prefer to part with (Hall, Reilly etc) but if they are forced to move DeBrusk/Swayman they should be able to get decent returns.

 

We'll find out.  UFA is coming up quick.  Not only that, but there are LOTS of wingers available across the league.  We've seen how difficult it is to unload a winger, especially when there's no leverage to do so.  Goalies also typically don't get traded for much, so I don't see Swayman generating a ton of value either.  Again, no leverage at all for Boston here.

[mll]

Can't really see Vancouver moving Demko.  Allvin was arguing against buyouts at the end of the season yet still bought out OEL so they could have cap space. Seems like the playoffs are pretty much a requirement and with only 2x top-4 Ds Demko seems rather essential

 

Even if they somehow get Swayman not sure he's at the same level as Demko.  Boston was a strong defensive team so unknown how he'll do behind a weaker D-corps.

 

Vilardi broke out as a winger and has barely played C since so not sure the best fit for C3.  He also has had some serious back concerns and taking face-offs might be too much of a strain.  He again missed time this year for an unknown upper body injury which led to some speculation that it was again his back (only speculation).   Vancouver would have access to the medical records before any trade.  Vilardi is somewhat slow speed wise but LA has more speed throughout their lineup than Vancouver.

 

Roy is UFA next summer just when Hronek/Pettersson also need new deals + cap going up (typically AAVs also go up) and who knows if he wants to play in Canada - kind of a theme with US players unless drafted.  Durzi high risk high reward type D but RFA so more control than Roy, but maybe not the kind of D to prioritise as he needs a solid D partner to cover for his risk taking or be sheltered.

Would think LA would prefer to move Durzi than Roy.  Gavrikov-Roy was their 2nd pairing.  Roy upcoming UFA though while Durzi RFA but still Clarke more likely to replace Durzi as offensive D in the short-term rather than play top-4 straight out of juniors.  

 

 

[Alflives]

7 hours ago, mll said:

Pacioretty was turning 34 coming off an injury riddled season (only 39 games played) and a 7M cap hit with Vegas wanting to clear the full 7M.  Vegas didn't want to keep him in the West either. 

 

Swayman and DeBrusk are younger and it's easier to find room to fit 4M (Swayman possibly even less).  They seem more in the Fiala situation.  The Wild were just as cap strapped but still got the return they wanted.

 

Bjorkstrand was traded nearly 10 days after free agency opened up - teams had already filled up their rosters.  He probably would have brought back a better return if he had been traded at the draft/before free agency but CBJ didn't know they could land Gaudreau.

 

Boston is likely going to have a tough time moving the players they would prefer to part with (Hall, Reilly etc) but if they are forced to move DeBrusk/Swayman they should be able to get decent returns.

 

Trading for Patches was a stupid move by Carolina. 

[Alflives]

Demko is soon to be a King. 

[mll]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

We'll find out.  UFA is coming up quick.  Not only that, but there are LOTS of wingers available across the league.  We've seen how difficult it is to unload a winger, especially when there's no leverage to do so.  Goalies also typically don't get traded for much, so I don't see Swayman generating a ton of value either.  Again, no leverage at all for Boston here.

More players available than spots but the better players will typically draw interest 1st.  DeBrusk at 4M seems like a rather efficient contract for next season.  Trading Hall seems near impossible - cap hit but also his NMC.  I do think Boston is going to have a hard time creating cap and it could force them to move players they would rather keep.

 

Quite a few teams looking for goalies.  They don't typically bring back much but the market seems somewhat lean.  Ottawa wants to make the playoffs and could use goalie help.  There's also Buffalo. Got to wonder about Detroit too as well as Columbus.  Quite a teams wanting to take that next step/get into the playoffs and could use a goalie.  Hellebuyck wants out so Winnipeg will need a goalie also.  There should be enough of a market.    

 

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, mll said:

Can't really see Vancouver moving Demko.  Allvin was arguing against buyouts at the end of the season yet still bought out OEL so they could have cap space. Seems like the playoffs are pretty much a requirement and with only 2x top-4 Ds Demko seems rather essential

 

Even if they somehow get Swayman not sure he's at the same level as Demko.  Boston was a strong defensive team so unknown how he'll do behind a weaker D-corps.

 

Vilardi broke out as a winger and has barely played C since so not sure the best fit for C3.  He also has had some serious back concerns and taking face-offs might be too much of a strain.  He again missed time this year for an unknown upper body injury which led to some speculation that it was again his back (only speculation).   Vancouver would have access to the medical records before any trade.  Vilardi is somewhat slow speed wise but LA has more speed throughout their lineup than Vancouver.

 

Roy is UFA next summer just when Hronek/Pettersson also need new deals + cap going up (typically AAVs also go up) and who knows if he wants to play in Canada - kind of a theme with US players unless drafted.  Durzi high risk high reward type D but RFA so more control than Roy, but maybe not the kind of D to prioritise as he needs a solid D partner to cover for his risk taking or be sheltered.

Would think LA would prefer to move Durzi than Roy.  Gavrikov-Roy was their 2nd pairing.  Roy upcoming UFA though while Durzi RFA but still Clarke more likely to replace Durzi as offensive D in the short-term rather than play top-4 straight out of juniors.  

 

 

Swayman is not at the same level as Demko.  Not sure where I'm saying they are.  What i do see out of this is increased depth across the roster though.

 

I'd gladly take Durzi over Roy.  He's still relatively young.  Can teach defence, but not offence. 

[mll]

Just now, HKSR said:

Swayman is not at the same level as Demko.  Not sure where I'm saying they are.  What i do see out of this is increased depth across the roster though.

 

I'd gladly take Durzi over Roy.  He's still relatively young.  Can teach defence, but not offence. 

I didn't think you were saying that.  I don't think the team will feel comfortable going with someone that's not at Demko's level.  That's why I don't see him being moved.

 

LA had the worse goaltending in the league.  By the all-star break they basically started every game 1 goal down vs what an average goalie could do.  They were just so strong defensively that their goalies didn't have to be at an elite level.  It's also kind of how it was for Vegas.  Not sure Vancouver can reach that level of defensive game just yet with so many holes on D but also bottom-6 and notably C3.  Might just be too early for them to be willing to move Demko.  

 

[HKSR]

Just now, mll said:

More players available than spots but the better players will typically draw interest 1st.  DeBrusk at 4M seems like a rather efficient contract for next season.  Trading Hall seems near impossible - cap hit but also his NMC.  I do think Boston is going to have a hard time creating cap and it could force them to move players they would rather keep.

 

Quite a few teams looking for goalies.  They don't typically bring back much but the market seems somewhat lean.  Ottawa wants to make the playoffs and could use goalie help.  There's also Buffalo. Got to wonder about Detroit too as well as Columbus.  Quite a teams wanting to take that next step/get into the playoffs and could use a goalie.  Hellebuyck wants out so Winnipeg will need a goalie also.  There should be enough of a market.    

 

Again, we shall see.  If Boston wants too much, teams just move on.  It'll just be a game of chicken for who blinks first.  If Boston takes too long or gets greedy, there are LOTS of other options.  Debrusk is also to become a UFA, so the team acquiring him might get 1 year of value, then have to pay him way more moving forward. 

 

Every year lots of teams need goalies.  Every year goalies never return that much unless they have a strong track record over several years.  We as fans are clearly not the only ones that saw Swayman play on one of the best regular season teams of all time.  There's risk here that Swayman is only a product of an incredible team in front of him.  The same team that is truly in cap hell. Hence value reduced.

[HKSR]

Just now, mll said:

I didn't think you were saying that.  I don't think the team will feel comfortable going with someone that's not at Demko's level.  That's why I don't see him being moved.

 

LA had the worse goaltending in the league.  By the all-star break they basically started every game 1 goal down vs what an average goalie could do.  They were just so strong defensively that their goalies didn't have to be at an elite level.  It's also kind of how it was for Vegas.  Not sure Vancouver can reach that level of defensive game just yet with so many holes on D but also bottom-6 and notably C3.  Might just be too early for them to be willing to move Demko.  

 

I'm confident in Ian Clark.  If anybody can get the most out of Swayman, it'd be him.  Swayman is also the age where he can grow with the other young core we have.  Demko is older.  The Canucks would have a few years to build up that D core with the age range of Hughes, Durzi, and Hronek.

[BPA]

Can’t Boston also do a buyout to get out of their salary cap crunch?  Like how Canucks bought out OEL to get under the cap.

[Toews]

17 hours ago, HKSR said:

I'm not attacking anybody though.  I am simply disagreeing and I even provide examples of why.  What you are insisting is that I just take peoples feedback as gospel and that whatever I proposed is wrong.  I firmly believe the market is tapped out.  There's next to no cap space available unless significant sweeteners are provided.   Boston has no 1st or 2nd round picks to provide as sweeteners, so if they want teams to eat millions in cap space, it's gonna cost them a LOT.  

You are right, 'attacking' was a stronger word than I intended on using. I am not trying to discourage you from posting your ideas in this forum even though IMHO they are far too favourable from our perspective than the team we are trading with. While I do think cap space is valuable it doesn't mean teams will jettison good players like Debrusk for ex. for mediocre returns.  

Edited June 21, 2023 by Toews

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, Toews said:

You are right, 'attacking' was a stronger word than I intended on using. I am not trying to discourage you from posting your ideas in this forum even though IMHO they are far too favourable from our perspective than the team we are trading with. While I do think cap space is valuable it doesn't mean teams will jettison good players like Debrusk for ex. for mediocre returns.  

Fair enough.  I'm just coming from the perspective that Boston doesn't even have 1st or 2nd round picks for sweeteners.  So the only way they can 'dump' cap is by providing more value than they want as trade bait.  Their forwards are all locked into NMC and NTCs.  They are gonna have 2 goalies making $4M+ each.  And once Swayman is re-signed, they'll have around $1M left to sign 5 to 6 forwards including a #1C.  Cap hell is an understatement for them.

[mll]

8 hours ago, BPA said:

Can’t Boston also do a buyout to get out of their salary cap crunch?  Like how Canucks bought out OEL to get under the cap.

That's an option too.  They have until 30 June.  Using CapFriendly just for year 1.  

 

Hall   1.7M - so 4.4M gained

Grzelcyk   850K - 2.8M gained

Forbort  667K - 2.3M gained

Reilly 333K - so 2.7M gained

 

[Patrick O]

Here is a bold move. Dempko to Philly for Carter Hart, Tanner Laczynski and a second rounder. I know Laczynski is coming 2 hip surgery in two years, but his face off % was pretty good, over 51% this past season. A fourth liner. Face off specialist, ala Manny Maholtra. Contract very affordable. Low risk high reward. Hart is younger than Dempko, and is a RFA. Yes with arb rights. But there is still some control. Maybe under a more stable regime, he could work out. He is a pretty good NHL caliber goalie. Philly gets an asset they can flip for good pieces. Trade Boeser for Lafrenière. Our third line center maybe second line later on. NYR are in a win now scenario. Lafrenière Has not worked out for the NYR. 

[HKSR]

On 6/21/2023 at 12:33 PM, BPA said:

Can’t Boston also do a buyout to get out of their salary cap crunch?  Like how Canucks bought out OEL to get under the cap.

 

On 6/21/2023 at 9:35 PM, mll said:

That's an option too.  They have until 30 June.  Using CapFriendly just for year 1.  

 

Hall   1.7M - so 4.4M gained

Grzelcyk   850K - 2.8M gained

Forbort  667K - 2.3M gained

Reilly 333K - so 2.7M gained

 

Looks fine on paper for the coming year:

But here is what you need to consider:

- buying out those 4 guys means they now only have 4 defencemen under contract, and basically only 3 top 4 defencemen.  They'll need to bring in another top 4 guy, plus a bottom pairing guy -- at least a $5M cap hit cost

- buying out Hall, and now there are only 6 forwards under contract.  They likely need another 7 forwards now including a #1 or #2C depending on what you think Coyle is.  A #1 or #2C is gonna cost at least $6M+

 

So, savings of $12M, $11M of that is on a top 4D and a #1 or #2C.  So they now have $6M in cap space to fill out the rest of the roster including at least 6 more forwards, 1 or 2 more bottom pair defence, and a backup goalie.  So 8 to 9 more roster players for $6M, and that's AFTER buying out all those guys. 

 

They NEED to dump cap.  I'm not sure how much more evident it needs to be for people to see it clearly.  Boston is in TERRIBLE shape in terms of the cap this year.  They're gonna have to move value out for pennies on the dollar considering the cap is officially only going up by $1M. 

[mll]

6 hours ago, HKSR said:

 

Looks fine on paper for the coming year:

But here is what you need to consider:

- buying out those 4 guys means they now only have 4 defencemen under contract, and basically only 3 top 4 defencemen.  They'll need to bring in another top 4 guy, plus a bottom pairing guy -- at least a $5M cap hit cost

- buying out Hall, and now there are only 6 forwards under contract.  They likely need another 7 forwards now including a #1 or #2C depending on what you think Coyle is.  A #1 or #2C is gonna cost at least $6M+

 

So, savings of $12M, $11M of that is on a top 4D and a #1 or #2C.  So they now have $6M in cap space to fill out the rest of the roster including at least 6 more forwards, 1 or 2 more bottom pair defence, and a backup goalie.  So 8 to 9 more roster players for $6M, and that's AFTER buying out all those guys. 

 

They NEED to dump cap.  I'm not sure how much more evident it needs to be for people to see it clearly.  Boston is in TERRIBLE shape in terms of the cap this year.  They're gonna have to move value out for pennies on the dollar considering the cap is officially only going up by $1M. 

It's a given that they need to move cap.  As already noted they might be forced to move players they would prefer to retain.  

They can also combine that with a buyout or 2.  Wouldn't expect them to buy out all 4.  

 

Reilly was demoted to the AHL and played only 10 games for them last season so he seems the most logical to buyout if they can't move him.  2.7M in cap space gained.    

 

They have Bergeron/Krejci's 4.5M bonus overage on their books this coming season - ie year 2 of the buyout is going to be covered by that cap space getting released.  

 

They don't have to run with a roster of 23 and could go as low as 20.    

 

Every team knew the Wild are completely cap strapped and were desperate to move Greenway yet they were still able to get a 2nd round pick.  Players that other teams covet will always be worth something.  Can't really expect to pay pennies if there are others teams bidding for the same player.  That's not going to be Hall, Reilly but could be Carlo/DeBrusk - ie guys they would prefer to retain.

 

[HKSR]

19 minutes ago, mll said:

It's a given that they need to move cap.  As already noted they might be forced to move players they would prefer to retain.  

They can also combine that with a buyout or 2.  Wouldn't expect them to buy out all 4.  

 

Reilly was demoted to the AHL and played only 10 games for them last season so he seems the most logical to buyout if they can't move him.  2.7M in cap space gained.    

 

They have Bergeron/Krejci's 4.5M bonus overage on their books this coming season - ie year 2 of the buyout is going to be covered by that cap space getting released.  

 

They don't have to run with a roster of 23 and could go as low as 20.    

 

Every team knew the Wild are completely cap strapped and were desperate to move Greenway yet they were still able to get a 2nd round pick.  Players that other teams covet will always be worth something.  Can't really expect to pay pennies if there are others teams bidding for the same player.  That's not going to be Hall, Reilly but could be Carlo/DeBrusk - ie guys they would prefer to retain.

 

You keep going back to the Wild.  Let's talk about Vegas and Pacioretty.  Or how about Columbus and Bjorkstrand.  Or how about St Louis and Jake Allen.  Or NYI and Devon Toews.  etc etc.  There's lots of examples of guys that SHOULD have returned much more, but because of the cap hell some teams get themselves into, they are sold off for less (and sometimes MUCH less) than what they're worth.  I think this will be even more apparent this off season as the cap has only moved up $2M in a span of 4 years where contract dollars have continued to climb.  Without a doubt, the Canucks bought out OEL because they simply couldn't find takers for any of their wingers without adding a sweetener.  It's not like their contracts are terrible value either (especially Garland).

 

I'd be really surprised if the Bruins get any kind of haul for Debrusk or Swayman.