Horvat is a Boss

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  1. Forsberg is on an expiring deal out of Nashville.
  2. Fair enough, Barzal got a bit more than I thought he would for 3 years. The one advantage that he has over Pettersson is that he has been more durable, but otherwise Pettersson has outscored him almost everywhere else.
  3. I don't think Point signed for less, I think he chose a bridge deal instead of a long term deal. Kucherov did the same but they happened to win after he got his big extension. Trying to equal off the salary between Tampa Bay and a Canadian city is how you sign Marner for 2.5M more than Kucherov. Toronto is the only team that has done this. Craig Button talked about how every city has advantages and disadvantages when trying to sign players. For example, playing in Toronto or any other Canadian city there are increased branding and advertising opportunities that wouldn't be available in other markets (think of Pettersson and Hughes in those car commercials). Some places offer a spotlight, others offer seclusion. There's more to it than just tax breaks. If that's all it was, then why did Bobrovsky require that monster contract in Florida? He takes home more money than the only goalie to win the Hart in recent memory. Dubois is the best center on his team and just signed a bridge deal for 5M because that's where the comparables and body of work that he produced put him. He didn't automatically get more because he's the best forward on the team. He's not in the top-5 highest paid forwards on his team if you include Dubinsky despite being better and more valuable than any of the players ahead of him. You keep saying that Pettersson and Hughes are the best players on the team at their positions and they will be paid more as a result, but that doesn't guarantee anything. Especially not on a bridge deal. If/when they're ready to sign long term, it will be a different story. Just for the record, I would say that Point is the best forward on the Lightning.
  4. The tax free state is great for Point, but it shouldn't affect Pettersson's contract. That's just a nice bonus for Point. Plus, Pettersson is not in as strong of a negotiating position as Point for the reasons I outlined above (unless he explodes this year, which is certainly possible). The fan's perception of Hughes won't get him extra money on his deal. Boeser was our rookie sensation, prince charming, "the Flow," etc. and clearly our best RW. He got paid less than Eriksson. The only things that matter are the comparables that will be referred to when negotiating the deal and the evidence the player has provided. Paying players based on fan perceptions and/or external motives is how you end up like Toronto (keeping the big 4 no matter what).
  5. Pettersson's deal is the same as Point's deal. Point was coming off a 41 goal, 92 point season when he signed that deal. That's good for 0.52 goals per game and 1.16 points per game. Pettersson has not come close to either of those marks yet in his career; he would need 65+ points this year given the shortened schedule to match Point's point production and 30+ goals to match his goal production (assuming he plays every game). I don't think it's impossible for him to reach those marks, but it's impossible to know whether he did or didn't right now. Plus, Point remained healthier over his first two seasons than Pettersson, playing in an extra 11 games. You pay for durability as well. For Hughes, the best comparable is probably Chabot, but he signed a long term deal. For a bridge deal, I looked at Werenski. In his second year in the NHL, Werenski set the franchise record for defenseman goals while playing in less than 82 games (a record that he broke again last year in even less games played). He scored at 0.54 pointer per game in his third year after setting that record and having a great rookie season. Hughes in his one season so far scored at a 0.78 points per game rate, which is considerably higher while also setting multiple franchise records. As such, I paid him considerably more than Werenski for the same term. We'll have to see how well Hughes does this year because he only has one year of work to draw from.
  6. Benn is our 7th defenseman, so at 2M I'd rather not have him. However, at less than 1M he's a serviceable veteran who provides flexibility by being able to play both sides. If it's not Benn then we sign some other generic depth defenseman. I share your sentiment on Juolevi, but we don't have many assets with value outside of our core. With Rathbone right there with him, I figured we could absorb that loss easier relative to other ones. I chose Stepan simply because he's right handed. I think he would benefit from playing further down the lineup than he was in Arizona and he's still not that old at 31. Other options would be Soderberg, Stastny, etc. Really any free agent than can fill our 3C spot. I'm not convinced Tryamkin is an NHL player, but he deserves a shot. I'm not expecting anything more than an eventual bottom pairing guy, a Zadorov lite. I would not be happy about including Juolevi in a deal, but the value has to come from somewhere. Like I said, we have Rathbone right there with him so it would probably be an easier pill to swallow than moving Hoglander or Podkolzin or someone else. He definitely did have a down year. If we can acquire him for less than what I proposed, I would be all for it. Regardless of this season though, his pedigree and his contract would ensure that he get's some value back, even if it's less than what I suggested. Although at that point Nashville would probably elect to keep him anyway.
  7. So how do you feel about the Miller trade? Would you do it again?
  8. The youngest of those centers you listed is 27. Gaudette fits in to the age group of a re-tooling team much better than they do. They could move Johansen for another big return at some point and keep some of the others as vets for the new core. The whole trade depends on Nashville committing to a re-tool after a hypothetical season. If that doesn't happen, then Arvidsson wouldn't be a target. Miller was 26 when we acquired him. Schmidt is 29. Do these trades limit the Canucks window? I don't know if Juolevi will be as good as Ekholm at some point. A re-tooling team might want to take that chance to develop him in to that, but if the Canucks are trying to be aggressive then waiting 2-3 years or whatever it is won't help them much. Plus Rathbone is still a good young defenseman in the system. In this scenario, I signed Stepan to fill the 3C position.
  9. I know Poile said that, but this trade was proposed with the assumption that Nashville missed the Playoffs and had a bad year and that Arvidsson was unremarkable. This would force them to re-evaluate and they would elect to commit to a re-tool. If these things don't happen then obviously the trade is less likely to happen. The Predators probably won't lose Ekholm in the Expansion draft, but they could lose him in Free Agency. Even if they re-sign him, adding a young defenseman would allow them to efficiently transition him lower in the lineup as he declines. In this particular proposed situation, Juolevi would line up with their new contending timeline better as well. Whether Gaudette would have been in the NHL or AHL, they still had interest in him. We had other players they could have sent down, but they wanted him. Kunin has mostly played wing I believe, while Gaudette has been a center.
  10. That would be a realistic ball park for his price. He's a really good player, but his contract increases his value as an asset quite a bit too. The price for Arvidsson should be similar to what we would expect in a Miller trade or at least something similar.
  11. This is a lengthy post, just letting you know The 2021 Season The Canucks finish somewhere in the middle of the Canadian division. They either make the Playoffs or barely miss in a crazy tight race, but the year is regarded as a solid one. Not great, but not horrible. Trade deadline is quiet since players have to quarantine and such; no significant moves made by the Canucks. After taking the entire season off, Ferland is ready to return. Green signs an extension either during the year or when the year is over. RFA Pettersson - 3 years, 6.75M per Hughes - 3 years, 6M per Demko - 3 years, 3M per Tryamkin: 1 year, 1.25M Rafferty - 2 years, 800,000 per I've warmed up to the idea of giving Pettersson and Hughes bridge deals. Originally, I wanted to sign them both long term immediately, but with the flat cap we wouldn't be able to take advantage of the term. When the cap begins to rise, we can lock them up for 6-8 years and still build around them. Demko's contract is based on young goalie comparables, mainly Blackwood. Tryamkin is brought over from the KHL and Rafferty is brought back as a 7th/8th defenseman. All of Brisebois, Chatfield, Lind and Michaelis should also be brought back on cheap deals for depth. Expansion Draft The Canucks protection list reads as follows: Forwards: Boeser, Horvat, Miller, Pettersson, Virtanen, Gaudette and MacEwan Defense: Schmidt, Juolevi, Rafferty Goalie: Demko Exposed: Roussel, Beagle, Ferland, Motte, Lind, Eriksson, Myers, Holtby. Protection list is relatively straightforward. It was a tough choice to protect MacEwan over Motte, but I went with the younger and cheaper asset. Roussel, Beagle and Eriksson all meet the Expansion requirements, so the Canucks will definitely meet the criteria of exposing two eligible forwards. On defense, the only two players that meet the requirements are Schmidt and Myers, and one of them must be exposed. That's a pretty easy decision. Since Edler and Hamonic will be UFAs and Hughes is ineligible, we can protect our two young defensemen. Goalies is an easy decision as well. Seattle ends up taking Roussel from the Canucks. He takes the Reaves role of establishing a culture for the new team. Plus he's on an expiring deal so they can move him if they want. Trades To OTT: Eriksson 2nd 2021 Karlsson To VAN: Future considerations Ottawa can be any team that is willing to take one year of Eriksson. His salary will be lower than his cap hit, so hopefully a team below the cap floor will be interested. Karlsson can also be changed with most of our other prospects. If this doesn't get it done, I would add a mid round pick as well. This trade obviously frees up an extra 6M in cap space for the Canucks in the offseason. To NSH: Gaudette Juolevi 1st 2022 (top-10 protected) To VAN: Arvidsson This is clearly an aggressive move. Finding wingers for Horvat has been a problem for a long time and this gets him one. This trade is made assuming Nashville underperforms and commits to a re-tool or rebuild. For Nashville, they get two young players and a 1st to kick start their plan. They were rumoured to be very interested in Gaudette back when they were trying to move Subban, so he is a piece that would likely entice them. Juolevi would provide insurance for them on the back end in case they lose Ekholm to the Expansion draft or Free Agency. He and Fabbro would be the young pieces on their blue line behind their vets Josi and Ellis. The Canucks get a scoring RW on a great contract. Arvidsson would have 3 years left at 4.25M at the time of this deal, which is great for a 30 goal scorer. He would fit in well with the high energy style the forwards play with and could play with either Pettersson or Horvat effectively. Free Agency Larsson - 3 years, 5M per Stepan - 2 years, 2.5M per Benn - 1 year, 900,000 Larsson steps in and fills our constant need for a top-4 RHD. He can partner with Hughes and take the Tanev role effectively. The contract must be three years or less though since Hughes will need a contract at that time, so the money will be relocated to him. Stepan can step in and be our veteran 3C. He's right handed, which is perfect for our group. He'll likely be looking for a bounceback year and has been declining for the last couple of years, but he's still effective at the right price and has Playoff experience from his run to the Finals with the Rangers. Any other depth free agent signings such as a third string goalie would obviously occur as well. Benn returns for depth and any other small signings would obviously occur as well. Lineup Miller - Pettersson - Boeser Podkolzin - Horvat - Arvidsson Hoglander - Stepan - Virtanen Motte - Beagle - MacEwan Hughes - Larsson Schmidt - Myers Rathbone - Tryamkin Demko Holltby Ferland Rafferty Benn Cap Space: 1.5M Powerplay 1: Miller - Horvat - Pettersson Boeser - Hughes Powerplay 2: Arvidsson - Stepan - Podkolzin Hoglander - Schmidt Penalty Kill 1: Beagle - Motte Schmidt - Larsson Penalty Kill 2: Stepan - Podkolzin Tryamkin - Myers The forward core is very talented and very deep. The top line will have another year of chemistry and growth. The second and line is Horvat with good wingers, which is an upgrade on what we have currently. The third line brings in Hoglander, who should be able to provide energy and offense in his second year with a veteran and Virtanen. I would call that an upgrade as well. The fourth line is essentially the same, with our defensive specialists. Our defense is almost the same as this year, with Larsson stepping into the Hamonic spot. The top 4 is locked in. Rathbone replaces Juolevi and Tryamkin replaces Benn, both of which could be upgrades but possibly not. Goalies are the same. Ideally I would like to move Ferland and bring in another defenseman for the bottom pair, but I don't think moving Ferland will be moveable. I think this team is closer to contending than we are currently, mainly due to the depth up front and the expected growth of our young players. Podkolzin and Hoglander are two big boosts up front and really help out the middle-6. Our top-9 would be one of the best in the league if they both can fill their spots effectively. Every line as two solid bodies physically. Our defense isn't great, but we can ride our top-4. Rathbone will be a rookie, so I wouldn't expect him to be a contributor yet. This team would also have over 25M in cap space for the following offseason. The notable contracts that would expire would be Boeser, Virtanen and Holtby so it should be a relatively low stress summer cap wise.
  12. I agree with the sentiment that Gaudette has to show more. I didn't see as much as I would have liked from him this past year in all honesty. If the right deal came along I would move him for an upgrade. Including Virtanen is probably too much though, we can sign a 3C fairly easily in FA.
  13. Bob McKenzie's list is out: https://www.tsn.ca/blueliner-owen-power-tops-mckenzie-s-first-2021-draft-ranking-1.1561354 1) Owen Power 2) Simon Edvinsson 3) Dylan Guenther 4) Matthew Beniers 5) Brandt Clarke 6) William Eklund 7) Kent Johnson 8) Aatu Raty 9) Mason MacTavish 10) Luke Hughes This draft is more wild than normal. The unusual circumstance of some players getting more games in that other is definitely playing a part I would imagine. Raty was a potential 1st overall pick in this draft not too long ago but was cut from Finland's WJC team.
  14. The Canucks did what they did last year with Eriksson as a top-6 forward for the majority of it. Toffoli only played 10 regular season games and we won our Playoff rounds without him. Granlund would be a bounceback candidate playing more minutes and would absolutely be better than Eriksson. I agree that Pearson would be upgraded ideally, but that opportunity will come next year when Hoglander and Podkolzin will be on the team full time in all likelihood. Pearson and Granlund out (UFAs), Podkolzin and Hoglander in.
  15. Hamonic would be a great addition. He replaces Tanev and fills our need for a defensively responsible player who can kill penalties. A one year deal would be perfect at something around 2M. He could compliment Hughes well, play with Juolevi on the bottom pair and/or kill penalties. The other UFA I would be interested in is Granlund. I think he would be a good fit in our top-6 and could play with either Pettersson or Horvat. He might be interested in a one year deal as well and could up some good numbers with our team and play in all situations. Hopefully a one year deal around 3.5M would work. To make space for these two additions, Ferland would have to go to LTIR. Another contract would have to be moved as well. I would prefer to move Roussel since he has two years on his deal. Maybe something like Roussel + 3rd + Focht would be enough to find a partner. Baertschi and Eriksson would be buried as well. Miller - Pettersson - Boeser Pearson - Horvat - Granlund Hawryluk - Gaudette - Virtanen Motte - Beagle - Sutter MacEwan Hughes - Hamonic Edler - Schmidt Juolevi - Myers Benn, Rafferty Holtby Demko I think that would be the ideal offseason. The team would be in a much better position to make some noise this year while improving our cap flexibility for the future.