D-Money

It’s crazy that some people think if you don’t literally fly their flag on your body, it is a lack of respect and tolerance. It’s like people forgot what those words even mean.

Buying OEL out may not even be an option. You can't buy out injured players, so if he's not fully healthy by the buyout window it's a no-go. But if it is, I fully expect management to pull the trigger and buy him out. Mainly because they have already identified the next 4 years (the years we save money from the buyout) as key to the franchise. In 3 years Demko is 30, and a UFA. In 4 years, Hughes is a UFA. They are trying to compete - even contend - while they have them locked up for cheap in their primes. After that, who knows where the team will be? Possibly a full-fledged rebuild, so the cap hit won't really matter much. On top of that, the cap is expected to rise dramatically within the next few years, so the later hit should be much easier to absorb, in comparison to the cap relief they would be getting in the next 2 years.

Carolina places Arturri Lehkonen on I/R (Link), and activates Trevor Moore. @Nail

He was talking about the Islanders pick. Despite the Barzal injury, they’re 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. Seems pretty likely that they’ll make the playoffs this year, in which case the pick will be 17th or higher.

Huh? Connor McDavid is 26. Draisaitl is 27. They are right in that zone. There are always outliers. (There are also outliers the other way - players that peak even earlier, but then flame out even younger.) But betting on outliers is kind of foolish, isn't it? It's safe to say that most players will be not as good in their early thirties as they were in their mid-to-late-twenties. Those are the years where your key players are likely their most effective. Hence, why management is forgoing the total rebuild, and trying to do something with Pettersson and Hughes ALREADY in their prime, before that window starts closing.

You mean, likely hitting the beginning of their decline: Rob Vollman summarizes this quite well in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics: “Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35.” https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/#:~:text=Rob Vollman summarizes this quite,by age 34 or 35.”

His cap hit next year would be almost zero. Then it’s 2.3M, $4.8M, and $4.8M. When you can get similar or better production from an AHL call-up making under a million, those savings are huge. The issue is the following 4 years, with a $2.1M hit where if the contract was allowed to just run its course, we’d be free and clear of it. If management was pushing a long-term rebuild, it would make more sense to just ride it out. But the goal is clearly to compete over the next 4 years. If it doesn’t work, we’ll be blowing it up. And even if it does work, the projected rising salary cap may make the $2.1M much more manageable.

Wolanin is playing better, for a fraction of the cost. At this point, if OEL is able to be bought out (off of I/R), I think it’s pretty much a done deal.

A better draft pick would have been nice. But the moment Demko came back and was looking like old Demko, that dream was over. Combined with how Pettersson has been playing, and the low hanging fruit of our remaining schedule, there’s just no way we were going to keep losing as much as we’d need to. And really, even if we could have, what’s the absolute lowest we could reasonably go…6th? That’s only a 7.5% chance at getting Bedard. The highest we’re likely going to climb is 9th, which is still a 5% chance at 1sr. It’s not all that different - both are unlikely.

On the one hand, I'm apprehensive of the deal, and would have preferred more of an in-depth rebuild. But on the other hand, I don't agree with people saying this is the same strategy as Jim Benning. The main problem with Benning's strategy wasn't just that he was trading futures and/or spending big money on established defensemen like OEL, Myers, and Gudbranson...it's that the players he targeted were simply not good players. And the underlying data on these players supported it. With each of OEL, Myers, and Gudbranson, the advanced stats indicated that they were simply not quality top-4 defensemen. Benning said the data was wrong, and bet on them. They were each bad bets. The problem isn't that we are spending over $13M on 2 defensemen (OEL & Myers) - it's that we are spending over $13M and these two players are not worth a fraction of that. With Hronek, the advanced stats heavily suggest he is a very good defensemen...elite, in fact. Dom's WAR model rates him as a top-10 defenseman in the league, with a positive impact only slightly behind Quinn Hughes'. This year, the Canucks are heavily outscoring opponents when Hughes is on the ice, but getting absolutely shelled when he isn't. If Hronek's data is even remotely correct, and he can steady the ship on the 2nd pair for multiple years going forward, he will make a MASSIVE difference on this team. So yeah, I'm not completely sold on the strategy, but I get it. And it is nothing like the moves Benning made to try to fix the defense.

It was a busy deadline weekend for Carolina! First off, we're sad to see a legend like Ovechkin go. We hoped to win another Cup with him. But we had 2 aims for the team: load up for this playoffs (and maybe next), while also transitioning to a younger core. With the situation around Ovechkin this year (with Washington not making the playoffs), the OV deal addressed both. It was a good fit for both sides, as Minnesota needed more scoring, and Ovechkin will get to play with Pettersson. We spent a lot of futures on these deals, but we managed to pull it all off without moving our top 2 prospects: Brennan Othmann and Carter Mazur. We hope to retain Lehkonen to fill the top-6 LW hole left by trading Ovechkin, so if we do that will make the price we paid for him well worth it. Carolina Hurricanes - Expected Playoff Roster Artturi Lehkonen - Patrice Bergeron - Evander Kane Anders Lee - Trevor Moore - Reilly Smith Yegor Sharangovich - Ross Colton - Nick Foligno Jordan Martinook - Nick Bonino - Barclay Goodrow Curtis Lazar, Radim Zohorna Victor Hedman - Darnell Nurse Alec Martinez - Jani Hakanpaa Alex Edler - Jon Merrill Daniil Miromanov Andrei Vasilevskiy Pheonix Copley Might sneak in?: Travis Hamonic, Trevor Lewis Black Aces: Tyce Thompson, Mitchell Chaffee, Bobby Trivigno, Jiri Patera

Do we have the rule that any player claimed off waivers after the deadline cannot be used in the playoffs? @Nail

Carolina places Trevor Moore on I/R (Link). @Nail

Carolina places Michael McCarron on waivers, assign to AHL if he clears. Also, place Nick Foligno on I/R (Link). @Nail

Carolina Hurricanes place defenseman Radko Gudas on waivers. @Nail

Dang, too late to claim

Kings gain $425K cap space here. Wonder if they’re loading up for something big…

At least we’re signing depth players who are good enough to get us picks, as opposed to having to trade away picks to get rid of them.

Superfluous

Most stats - regular and advanced - indicated that the Kings were getting the worst goaltending in the league. Quick is no longer NHL-calibre, not even as a backup. He wasn’t going to be retained, this just expedited it a little.

I got myself tickets to Bruce’s upcoming show in Calgary earlier today… then went back to the pool at my hotel in Mexico (taking a break from the cold). So yeah… Thank you Bruce!

Part of me wonders if they forced that deal because Stillman had the exact salary to make them the first team to make it exactly to the salary cap (to the dollar) in NHL history. It may have been more math-related than hockey-related.

Good proposal. Boeser would be lucky to hit the numbers Bjorkstrand did last year, and his salary is $1.25M higher. So the return in the proposal is fairly reasonable. People who think we’re getting a 1st for him are out to lunch. And Winnipeg is a good fit. Not only for the reasons you mentioned, but also, their weakest position is RW. They have: Wheeler, Appleton, and… a mish-mash of fringe guys (featuring Sam Gagner & Karson Kuhlman). Adding Boeser fills a top-6 spot, and pushes the other guys down into the bottom-6, where they belong. Realistic on all sides. I think Vancouver would take it.

Holy. Crazy that he’s already passed the most Byfuglien or Carlyle ever got.

This is just gorgeous…