nuckin_futz Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 @TGokou Looks like it's payday bud. GameStop Announces Multi-year Strategic Partnership with Microsoft https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-announces-multi-strategic-partnership-180000146.html GME rips 22% to a new 52wk high. There's 9500 Oct calls @$15 sticking out like a sore thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGokou Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 4 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: @TGokou Looks like it's payday bud. GameStop Announces Multi-year Strategic Partnership with Microsoft https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-announces-multi-strategic-partnership-180000146.html GME rips 22% to a new 52wk high. There's 9500 Oct calls @$15 sticking out like a sore thumb. Haha indeed and close to my birthday too. I also got a promotion so yah it's been a good week lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortorella's Rant Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 It is seeming like a good time to take some of that money out that I put in beginning of August. This week was a pretty great week all things considered. Although in it for the long game I would rather have even more cash on hand if Nov 3. goes ugly.. and it most likely will. If the market goes haywire as a result and takes weeks or even a couple months to recover at least I'll be loaded cash wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Sorry about the formatting. The TLDR version. Same options shenanigans going on as early September that led to a sharp selloff. (Bloomberg) -- Stock traders assessing the looming presidential election and a stalling economic recovery also need to keep an eye on the options market. While the frenetic pace of speculation in derivatives has eased a bit recently, it hasn’t stopped, and a chorus of analysts warns the trading remains capable of exacerbating swings in equities. One proxy for the froth still latent in options, the percentage of overall volume represented by single- stock contracts, remains up 19% from a year ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Most of it is concentrated in megacap technology and momentum-driven shares. Meanwhile, a large buyer of tech calls dubbed the Nasdaq whale recently resurfaced, purchasing around $200 million worth of call contracts on tech stocks in a single day. The Nasdaq 100 Index has gained in all but two sessions this month and just notched its best week since July after last month’s sharp drop. It’s up 2.2% as of 11 a.m. in New York on Monday. The situation is another thing for traders to worry about in whipsawing markets where liquidity remains thin. Trading in options showed itself capable of influencing share movement in August and September, when dealer hedging -- demand from people who sell options for the underlying stock -- created feedback loops that helped drive the Nasdaq 100 higher. That dynamic can also add fuel to downside moves as well as sellers adjust positions. “This low liquidity environment lays the groundwork for dealer positioning (i.e., gamma imbalances) that can further exacerbate existing market trends,” wrote JPMorgan analysts including Shawn Quigg in a note Tuesday. “Exceptionally large trades in thin markets, especially in sectors (e.g., technology) or investment styles (e.g., momentum) considered overbought or oversold, increase the potential for exacerbated stock moves as dealers hedge exposure.” Call open interest in Facebook Inc., Amazon.com, Netflix Inc., Alphabet Inc., Apple and Microsoft Corp. has averaged 12.8 million contracts over the 30 days through Friday, the highest since early 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Total open interest on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 exchange-traded fund stands at roughly 8.9 million contracts, above the ETF’s one-year average of about 7.2 million. While developments in the election and economy are no doubt raising anxiety levels, machinations in options are probably making things worse. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has moved an average of 1.8% per day since the beginning of September, while the broader market gauge has fluctuated by 1.2% over that time period. Recent options activity has been momentum-based, meaning that stocks tend to attract more interest in calls when it’s rallying versus when it trades lower, according to Susquehanna Financial Group LLP’s Chris Murphy. But if call strikes are triggered as a stock dips, that can amplify its fall, he said. “Dealer hedging also has an impact when all the tech stocks trade lower through call strikes, and dealers don’t need their long stock hedges anymore,” said Murphy, a derivatives strategist at the firm. Something else to worry about: the impact of speculative options trading on the options market’s more traditional role, as a hedge, particularly around events such as a presidential election. Investors are facing “violent” moves in options prices, elevated implied volatility and wider spreads in contracts as they seek to hedge against turbulence around the Nov. 3 vote, said Robert Knopp, co-head of Optiver’s S&P options trading team. While buying protection around such an event is always costly, it’s been more expensive over the past two months due to the frenzy of call buying on tech stocks, according to the firm. Throw in structural forces that are contributing to a sustained high implied volatility environment, and election hedgers have their work cut out for them. “We’ve certainly witnessed some imbalances in the U.S. options market in the lead-up to the election,” Knopp said in a webcast on Tuesday. Now, “the combination of this crisis potential and the process being drawn out are leading to some real anomalies.” As of Tuesday, hedging the election was the “most expensive options event in the history of the VIX Index,” according to Knopp. What’s more, spreads in options that expire after election are wider than the firm would expect to see. More broadly, options markets look different from a year ago, according to Karinvir Gill, a senior trader in Optiver’s Sydney office. There are fewer short-volatility players -- options sellers, in other words -- in the wake of the Covid crisis, which blew up many of these yield-harvesting strategies. There’s also less volatility selling by retail investors after the delisting of some popular VIX products earlier this year, he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Markets turning green. Biden leading in the polls and market is pricing in a democratic win. If the S&P can stay above 3400 heading into Halloween weekend, we're gonna make a lot of money this fall and winter. (more than we already have this summer ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Putgolzin Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 43 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: Markets turning green. Biden leading in the polls and market is pricing in a democratic win. If the S&P can stay above 3400 heading into Halloween weekend, we're gonna make a lot of money this fall and winter. (more than we already have this summer ) So because I know nothing of any of this, but would like to learn... I'm going to put a few thousand dollars into the market for the very first time. Should I just go ahead and do so now? Or should I wait to see if there's a post-election dip and try to buy some stuff low? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, NucksPatsFan said: Markets turning green. Biden leading in the polls and market is pricing in a democratic win. If the S&P can stay above 3400 heading into Halloween weekend, we're gonna make a lot of money this fall and winter. (more than we already have this summer ) you just keep posting those gems and i'll keep buying in in low enough dollar amounts that I barely break even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) US is set to open cruise ship travel wide open at the end of October. Today CCL, NCLH and RCL absolutely tanked. Would be a decent long term hold if picked up now. Royal Carribean has streams outside of cruise alone so they're semi attractive at the moment even after their now nearly $10 a share plunge Edited October 13, 2020 by Warhippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, nzan said: So because I know nothing of any of this, but would like to learn... I'm going to put a few thousand dollars into the market for the very first time. Should I just go ahead and do so now? Or should I wait to see if there's a post-election dip and try to buy some stuff low? Thanks! I'll need more information to give you an honest opinion (strictly an opinion, not financial advice). What are you planning on putting your money into? How are you planning to split up your money? What is your investing horizon? Are you putting in money now that you don't plan on using for a few years, or are you putting in money hoping next Summer you can pull out profits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, Warhippy said: you just keep posting those gems and i'll keep buying in in low enough dollar amounts that I barely break even "Profit is profit" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Putgolzin Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: I'll need more information to give you an honest opinion (strictly an opinion, not financial advice). What are you planning on putting your money into? How are you planning to split up your money? What is your investing horizon? Are you putting in money now that you don't plan on using for a few years, or are you putting in money hoping next Summer you can pull out profits? Oh hey thanks! I've got my savings with a traditional fund manager who has always told me to expect pitiful returns over the long haul. And he's consistently delivered on the promise of pitiful returns, but I'm still counting on the compounding effect because I'll just leave it there for a generation. So I guess I'm trying to further diversify by putting some money into the market that I can afford to lose; I'll try to self-direct it to real growth over the long term. If I could turn $10,000 into $100,000 over ten years or something maybe at that point it would be worth it to redirect it towards something else (and I realize that I'm showing my ignorance even within this explanation) - but the goal will be to leave it growing in some vehicle until retirement (in about 20 years). I don't even know what to buy - apple and tesla and amazon and lululemon? Probably looking to buy single stocks as I've already got my main savings in funds - this is more of a side venture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 hour ago, NucksPatsFan said: Markets turning green. Biden leading in the polls and market is pricing in a democratic win. If the S&P can stay above 3400 heading into Halloween weekend, we're gonna make a lot of money this fall and winter. (more than we already have this summer ) IMO it doesn't matter who's President. The Fed is the driver and the Fed has told everyone they're not going to stop. The stimulus is going to flow either way. Of course Congressional Dems will probably go nutty with their own stimulus. What is not priced in, is the Dems taking the Senate. Because if they do there will be major changes coming (changes to tax policy, healthcare. environmental policy). Market is already pricing in some of this. Look at solar stocks over the last little while. The move in JKS is nuts and that's a Chinese solar company. Not like they're getting a slice of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, nzan said: Oh hey thanks! I've got my savings with a traditional fund manager who has always told me to expect pitiful returns over the long haul. And he's consistently delivered on the promise of pitiful returns, but I'm still counting on the compounding effect because I'll just leave it there for a generation. So I guess I'm trying to further diversify by putting some money into the market that I can afford to lose; I'll try to self-direct it to real growth over the long term. If I could turn $10,000 into $100,000 over ten years or something maybe at that point it would be worth it to redirect it towards something else (and I realize that I'm showing my ignorance even within this explanation) - but the goal will be to leave it growing in some vehicle until retirement (in about 20 years). I don't even know what to buy - apple and tesla and amazon and lululemon? Probably looking to buy single stocks as I've already got my main savings in funds - this is more of a side venture. I can certainly give you my opinion. I have 4 strategies that I use. Similar to Ari, I like to look at what Cathie Wood is up to in terms of buying (don't pay too much attention to her sells as she is strict with her ETF ratios and will sell shares of a stock doing really well to keep the balance). I then add some of her recent buys (within 30 days) to a watch list and do my own reseach on them and buy the ones I like once they hit (if they hit) my buy in price. Second strategy is I look for value in SPAC's. (Special Purpose Acquisition Company - how draftkings went public among many others). Why? Most insiders buy pre-IPO stocks dirt cheap. For example, Buffett got Snowflake under $10. It IPO'd at over $200. They cash out and the regular Joe Blow gets stuck buying in super expensive. SPAC's are an alternative way to go public for a private company without going through the IPO process. Everyone is on equal footing. Sure you can be a PIPE investor and get in early, but all SPAC's go on the market around $10.20 and PIPE's don't get in much cheaper than that. My third strategy is looking for established companies (often products I use myself or have heard of them) with a track record of great revenue, and seeing which ones are on a downtrend and why. Usually it's for no particular reason (for example I grabbed LULU at 297, there was no reason for it to dip besides COVID, it's at $360 today). If there's an actual significant reason I'll stay way, but typically this is where you can find great value growth stocks. My fourth strategy is with my "meh I don't care if I lose this money" fund. This is trying to capitalize on short plays in hot sectors. I'll scour social media, finviz and other screeners to see what's accumulating volume, it's weekly and monthly trend, and what catalysts are coming up. I'll also play options out of this fund just because they are higher risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Putgolzin Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: I can certainly give you my opinion. I have 4 strategies that I use. Similar to Ari, I like to look at what Cathie Wood is up to in terms of buying (don't pay too much attention to her sells as she is strict with her ETF ratios and will sell shares of a stock doing really well to keep the balance). I then add some of her recent buys (within 30 days) to a watch list and do my own reseach on them and buy the ones I like once they hit (if they hit) my buy in price. Second strategy is I look for value in SPAC's. (Special Purpose Acquisition Company - how draftkings went public among many others). Why? Most insiders buy pre-IPO stocks dirt cheap. For example, Buffett got Snowflake under $10. It IPO'd at over $200. They cash out and the regular Joe Blow gets stuck buying in super expensive. SPAC's are an alternative way to go public for a private company without going through the IPO process. Everyone is on equal footing. Sure you can be a PIPE investor and get in early, but all SPAC's go on the market around $10.20 and PIPE's don't get in much cheaper than that. My third strategy is looking for established companies (often products I use myself or have heard of them) with a track record of great revenue, and seeing which ones are on a downtrend and why. Usually it's for no particular reason (for example I grabbed LULU at 297, there was no reason for it to dip besides COVID, it's at $360 today). If there's an actual significant reason I'll stay way, but typically this is where you can find great value growth stocks. My fourth strategy is with my "meh I don't care if I lose this money" fund. This is trying to capitalize on short plays in hot sectors. I'll scour social media, finviz and other screeners to see what's accumulating volume, it's weekly and monthly trend, and what catalysts are coming up. I'll also play options out of this fund just because they are higher risk. Wow bro, that’s so incredibly appreciated. I’ll try to understand it and digest it sometime shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, nzan said: Wow bro, that’s so incredibly appreciated. I’ll try to understand it and digest it sometime shortly! No worries. A couple SPAC's I'd recommend at least looking at. PIC - taking XL Fleet public. They are trading near redemption price. Meaning if the merger doesn't go through, you get your money back at the redemption price (usually around $10.20 plus interest). Meaning your risk is super low for a high upside. LCA - taking golden nugget online gaming public. Owned by the owner of the Houston Rockets. Just got the approval to expand to Michigan, already approved in New Jersey, and will get Pennsylvania soon. On a downtrend but will be merging soon. They crush all of their competition in terms of revenue. KCAC - Taking QuantumScape public - they produce batteries for electric vehicles. Backed by Bill Gates. IPOC - a SPAC started by one of the owners of the Golden State Warriors Chamath Palihapitiya, also a former Facebook executive and CEO of Social Capital. They haven't announced a target company yet but his other SPAC, IPOB, is doing really well and they haven't even merged yet. SPAQ - Taking Fisker public. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: SPAQ - Taking Fisker public. Damn that's right. I still have a bunch of warrants through them. Only about 10 weeks old but.... wtf should I do with them I wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 (edited) NIO stock up big this morning.. I can't find any catalyst other than JP Morgan Chase saying that it is a good buy and "that their stock could double".. Edit: sold for 30% profit. Will by back in at a lower price.. hopefully. Edited October 14, 2020 by I.Am.Ironman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 On 9/29/2020 at 9:54 AM, NucksPatsFan said: NIO keeps getting rejected at $20.10, once it breaks through it should go to $23-$25 Kapow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said: Kapow The JPM forecast helped them out with that. I can't find any other news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said: The JPM forecast helped them out with that. I can't find any other news. 100%. Prior to the JPM forecast though the technicals were screaming bullish. Too bad SPAQ isn’t joining the EV fun today. Still waiting on them to announce the platform. Lots of leaked reports it is VW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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