ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 After last week’s Drafting Defense thread, I decided to do something similar for the forwards. I combed through the last 18 years (1996-2013) of the drafting, to find top 6 forwards and their correlation to the spot the players were picked in. Also for fun, I added the total number of cups won and the number players that won. The cup wins shouldn’t be that main focused point as it takes more than one players to win the cup, and we ran into a teams winning multiple cups. But it is something to note. I defined a top 6 forward as simplest as possible. A player over .6 ppg over the course of their career. That’s not to say that some players who bloomed later in their careers aren’t important but it would be just too hard to determine and filter. This typically would affect later round picks as they usually take longer to develop. The negatives about this definition is .6 ppg misses the players that contribute more than points that still are considered top 6. (Brown, Schenn, Fisher, Simmonds) and the young players don’t have a big enough sample size and are yet to break the career .6ppg mark (Galchenyak, Jenner, Hertl) With that being said, here are the results. 1-10 115 total forwards picks 51 top 6 players (44%) 10 players won a total of 15 cups (zero players in the 5-10 range) 11-20 111 total forwards picks 15 top 6 players (13.5%) 5 players won a total of 9 cups 21-30 103 total forwards picks 17 top 6 players (16.5%) 5 players won a total of 9 cups 2nd round 335 total forwards picks 22 top 6 players (6.5%) 6 players won a total of 6 cups 3rd round 332 total forwards picks 10 top 6 players (3%) 5 players won a total of 5 cups 4th round + 1515 total forwards picks 21 top 6 players (1.3%) 2 players won a total of 3 cups Things that stood out: Forwards picked in the top 3 have a 80% chance of being a top 6. In those 18 years, forwards pick 5-10 have yet to win a cup with only a 26% chance of them becoming a top 6 (big drop from the top 3) You’re less likely to find a top 6 forward outside the top 10 but If you find a top 6 forward in the 11-20 and 21-30. That player is more likely to win a cup than top 6 forwards found in the top 10. 11-20 (33%) 21-30 (29%) vs 1-10 (20%) Out of 141 (0.6ppg) forwards found in the draft over that 18 year span, only 33 have won cups. Canucks pick 10 Forwards were picked a #5 overall, only 4 of them fall into the top 6 category (Vanek, Kessel, Wheeler) at the top. OHL draft 42 forwards in the top 10 picks, with 19 becoming top 6 players. (London had 6 forwards picked in the top 10, 4 of them our above the .6ppg mark, the other two are Fata and our own Bo Horvat) QMJHL draft 12 forwards in the top 10 picks, with 8 becoming top 6. (Drouin, Couturier, Sheppard, Picard being the 4 not past the .6ppg mark..yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 It's interesting, but for the sake of comparison to drafting D, you've relaxed the standard from elite D to top 6 forward - which doesn't really allow for these numbers to be cross-referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 What you failed to take in to account though my man is that no matter who we pick, they'll be proclaimed a bust or be involved in every trade proposal from here until they're over 100 points per season. And looking at that 5-10 no cup stat, I am sure some are already gearing up to do just that While at the same time Every other pick from 1-4 and 11-30 will be heralded as the next coming of Howe and will instantly include our pick plus top prospect because..."potential" Otherwise loved this write up as much as the defense one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chronic.Canuck Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Great effort on the research. I think you could have relaxed the bar a little, maybe to .5 PPG or to not include the player's first season. Either way, looks like we'll be drafting a top 6 forward at #5 overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 15 minutes ago, oldnews said: It's interesting, but for the sake of comparison to drafting D, you've relaxed the standard from elite D to top 6 forward - which doesn't really allow for these numbers to be cross-referenced. true, there just too much personal biased that can get involved to determine elite vs non elite which a bar, that's why I went with top 6 and .6ppg. Things like Brad richards as one point was elite, 2 cups, playoff MPV but I wouldn't consider him elite anymore? Lecavier has a cup, and two seasons over 90 points. was elite but didn't hold that title very long. Is Spezza who's has a higher ppg mark than both the twins elite? Is Williams a player who's got 3 cup rings, produced over .6 ppg elite? Without some set parameters is really hard to determine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kragar Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 45 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: Things that stood out: Forwards picked in the top 3 have a 80% chance of being a top 6. In those 18 years, forwards pick 5-10 have yet to win a cup with only a 26% chance of them becoming a top 6 (big drop from the top 3) You’re less likely to find a top 6 forward outside the top 10 but If you find a top 6 forward in the 11-20 and 21-30. That player is more likely to win a cup than top 6 forwards found in the top 10. 11-20 (33%) 21-30 (29%) vs 1-10 (20%) Out of 141 (0.6ppg) forwards found in the draft over that 18 year span, only 33 have won cups. Interesting read, thanks for the additional effort. Not sure if I am just pointing out the obvious here, but I think those picks going in the later part of the 1st are going to increasingly better teams, which would increase the odds of that player getting more cup wins. I agree with you that cup wins should not be the focal point of your analysis since it is harder for the player to control, but it would be curious to know how much impact these players had in their respective cup wins. Were the later 1st rounders you reference riding the 3rd line having a low-to-moderate impact on the win, with the top-6 already in great shape, or were they solid contributors. Maybe a helpful data point to that end would be the difference in years between draft year and cup win. Therefore, chances are those in the 11-30 slot range that won a cup within a couple years of their draft were not top-6 at that time, whereas those that were 5-6 years out from the draft could have a greater impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 3 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: true, there just too much personal biased that can get involved to determine elite vs non elite which a bar, that's why I went with top 6 and .6ppg. Things like Brad richards as one point was elite, 2 cups, playoff MPV but I wouldn't consider him elite anymore? Lecavier has a cup, and two seasons over 90 points. was elite but didn't hold that title very long. Is Spezza who's has a higher ppg mark than both the twins elite? Is Williams a player who's got 3 cup rings, produced over .6 ppg elite? Without some set parameters is really hard to determine. Still good stuff - I think regardless, we can see a common underlying trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 20 minutes ago, Chronic.Canucks.Fan said: Great effort on the research. I think you could have relaxed the bar a little, maybe to .5 PPG or to not include the player's first season. Either way, looks like we'll be drafting a top 6 forward at #5 overall. I was originally thinking that but then realized I'd be putting players like Sam Gagner, Perreault, and Parris (who in my mind are 3rd liners) in the same grouping as a Lucic, O'reilly and Saad (who'd I'd say are forsure top 6) I do like seeing the success of #5 overall. We might not get a superstar but we should be getting a impact NHLer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 3 minutes ago, Kragar said: Interesting read, thanks for the additional effort. Not sure if I am just pointing out the obvious here, but I think those picks going in the later part of the 1st are going to increasingly better teams, which would increase the odds of that player getting more cup wins. I agree with you that cup wins should not be the focal point of your analysis since it is harder for the player to control, but it would be curious to know how much impact these players had in their respective cup wins. Were the later 1st rounders you reference riding the 3rd line having a low-to-moderate impact on the win, with the top-6 already in great shape, or were they solid contributors. Maybe a helpful data point to that end would be the difference in years between draft year and cup win. Therefore, chances are those in the 11-30 slot range that won a cup within a couple years of their draft were not top-6 at that time, whereas those that were 5-6 years out from the draft could have a greater impact. Interesting...I like that idea. I'll list the players that won cups in their groupings. From eyeballing, i would say most picks from 1-20 were key contributors (1 of the top 5 important piece) in the cup run. 1-10 Patrick Kane Sidney Crosby Vincent Lecavalier Eric Staal Evgeni Malkin Tyler Seguin Jonathan Toews Marian Gaborik Nathan Horton Andrew Ladd 11-20 Anze Kopitar Jeff Carter Alex Tanguay Marian Hossa Ryan Getzlaf 21-30 Simon Gagne Mike Richards Scott Gomez Corey Perry Justin Williams 2nd round Brandon Saad Patrice Bergeron Tyler Toffoli Milan Lucic Jiri Hudler David Krejci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 8 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: Interesting...I like that idea. I'll list the players that won cups in their groupings. From eyeballing, i would say most picks from 1-20 were key contributors (1 of the top 5 important piece) in the cup run. 1-10 Patrick Kane Sidney Crosby Vincent Lecavalier Eric Staal Evgeni Malkin Tyler Seguin Jonathan Toews Marian Gaborik Nathan Horton Andrew Ladd 11-20 Anze Kopitar Jeff Carter Alex Tanguay Marian Hossa Ryan Getzlaf 21-30 Simon Gagne Mike Richards Scott Gomez Corey Perry Justin Williams 2nd round Brandon Saad Patrice Bergeron Tyler Toffoli Milan Lucic Jiri Hudler David Krejci So what you're saying is... We Should Have Drafted....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Great analysis again. Noah Hanifan, Morgan Rielly, Ryan Strome, Phil Kessel, Carey Price, Blake Wheeler, Thomas Vanek, Rob Niedermayer, Jaromir Jagr, Bill Guerin, Scott Stevens, Tom Barrasso, Rick Vaive. These are the top players of the 5th overall pick going back to 1979. Lots of good players on that list, a couple of hall of famers as well. Also want to point out that guys like Paul Coffey, Peter Forsberg, Oliver Ekman Larsson, Phil Housley, Vincent Damphousse, Ryan Smyth, Mikko Koivu, Hampus Lindholm and Sean Monahan were picked right after at 6th overall. So you can make an argument that with better scouting these guys could have easily gone 5th. This list also has a couple of hall of famers. Another thing to point out is there are some players, hall of famers like Brian Leetch and Cam Neely, that were picked just a couple picks later at number 9. So again scouting becomes the key determination of what player you are gonna get. At the end of the day most drafts only have 3 or 4 slam dunk can't miss prospects. Some years it is even less. That's why you don't see a lot of studs picked at 5. Also, some drafts are much deeper than others. In 2003 there were studs picked all over the place, even in the 2nd round. As a matter of fact the best players out of that draft were all picked outside the top 10. Marc Andre Fleury, the top pick that year, would probably have gone in the 20's in a redo of that draft. The 2016 draft looks to be very similar to a lot of other drafts. 3 elite players and then a bunch of guys interchangeable from 4 all the way to 15. The 15th pick in this draft could very well turn out to be better than the 4th overall pick. Hopefully JB has done his homework and selects the player at 5 who turns out to be at least the 5th best player in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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