[Discussion] Value of our 2021 1st

[HughMungus]

The first is most valuable at this draft. Before FA and training camp.

 

Most valuable without protection.

 

Reality is we are a wildcard team. A trading partner would need to be betting on us missing.

 

I cant think of any players available JB would want to acquire. 

 

Maybe Subban? Id pass on that.

 

 

Id personally see what the 10th, 2019 1st, Julevi, and 1 of Dipietro/Demko and a choice of roster player gets. We can off a package like that and Baer, Pearson, Tanev, Hutton etc. 

 

 

[Chris12345]

I think it's hard to value because you don't know where the team falls aka Ottawa.

[J.I.A.H.N]

4 hours ago, Bure1010 said:

The value of a 2021 1st is dependant on who your trading with. Plus A 2020 protected pick might be a little more valuable as they’d get the 2021 anyways if van decided to hold onto the 2020 pick. And if we r looking to trade a 2021 pick I’d like to see one or two good young pieces that can help now as opposed to a low 1 st but not sure there would be any buyers or if somehow the 2021 and 2019 1sts somehow get us byram Kakko or Hughes (which wouldn’t happen). 

Wonder if 2021 first would get us Johnsson and Kapanen and a cap dump not named Zaitsev from Toronto or something along those lines. 

 

I am not adverse to this idea...…...except for the Seattle draft

Our core will be ready in 4 years, and that is when our picks that we pick this year will not be waver exempt......getting ones that may excel earlier

only makes the potential for one of them being picked up by Seattle...….again, I am not against the suggestion, only the potential difficulty it presents.....

But my point and which you seemed to be agreeing with me on, is to use our 2021 pick now, in some way.....

 

 

 

 

[IBatch]

20 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Brock Boeser says hi.........

 

Jan, each draft is different - for example, this year after the first three or four picks, it is pretty flat until the mid 20's by some scouts' opinions.   There are far too many examples of truly elite players coming from playoff team slots to make such a blanket statement unless you are comparing the top one or two picks in a given draft as your non-playoff benchmark.    

 

In today's NHL, a first round and even a second round pick are far more valuable then they were even three or four years ago given the trend in game with use of CAP (both in terms of "weaponizing" and leveraging for longer windows of competitiveness for a given core) and the gradual overall decrease in average age of players.   That is why I think unless you are in a "win now" and have a legitimate shot at a Cup (truly a top five or so team top to bottom) with a move that involves you surrendering a first round pick, you have to stop yourself and not make that move.   

Even teams that are supposed to make the playoffs don’t....finishing around where we did this year or making the playoffs is about even odds.   And you never know once the lotto comes what’s going to happen as the past few years have shown.     I get the logic behind the OP.  But it’s risky.

 

This will be just as unpopular but what about biting the bullet and taking our medicine by deliberately setting back the rebuild for a few years and trading Horvat for the skilled young RHD that we didn’t draft, there is a pile of good centers (6 of the first 11) this draft...and then add two or three more lottery picks in the mean time (no way management or ownership has the stomach for this, for one it’s self preservation, for the other it’s licking their chops at the playoffs soon around the corner).   This is the type of move that would amp up the chances of this core becoming a contender.  We’d add a stud on defense, and maybe two more lotto picks to our core (not including this one), to make sure we do bounce one or two others for futures.  

 

One lengthy injury to either Horvat, EP or Boeser and we miss the playoffs.  We have the same injury prone lineup (so far) going into next year plus Hughes.  Anything could happen of course, all the young guys could take a step and we could win a round or two even.  

 

It really depends what happens in free agency and the draft, our trade power is quite low and won’t add an impact player or high pick (without touching a core member) and defenseman take longer to develop so they will be coming in late.

 

On trading Horvat I don’t like the idea and would prefer we fix the defense the only way we can which is free agency and hope we have enough in the pipe for it to improve organically.   But have some pretty big doubts it will be enough.

Edited May 26, 2019 by IBatch

[coryberg]

On 5/25/2019 at 9:00 AM, Jimmy McGill said:

I'm sure Ottawa would take Clarkson for even a mid-round pick, just saying that its not worth a 1st to dump him. 

Yep. There is a precedent for this kind of move...

 

Pavel Datsyuks contract (1 year left, same as Clarkson's) was traded along with #16 overall for a dead weight contract spot (Joe Vitale), #20 and #53. 

 

Because the insurance company is picking up the salary any team that is far under the cap and has no intention of hitting it before the season starts could paper him onto their roster without blinking an eye.

 

Now if the player was healthy dead weight like Lucic that would be a totally different animal as they would have to pay his salary and pay it for a long time.

 

All things considered? I would put the value of taking Clarkson at a 4th round pick.

Edited May 27, 2019 by coryberg

[Bure1010]

On 5/25/2019 at 3:45 PM, janisahockeynut said:

I am not adverse to this idea...…...except for the Seattle draft

Our core will be ready in 4 years, and that is when our picks that we pick this year will not be waver exempt......getting ones that may excel earlier

only makes the potential for one of them being picked up by Seattle...….again, I am not against the suggestion, only the potential difficulty it presents.....

But my point and which you seemed to be agreeing with me on, is to use our 2021 pick now, in some way.....

 

 

 

 

O yes I agree it should be in play I want it should be for young player or players that can build with the core. Only way I would like to see it moved for a pick in this years draft is if it’s 11-16 range. 

[J.I.A.H.N]

15 minutes ago, Bure1010 said:

O yes I agree it should be in play I want it should be for young player or players that can build with the core. Only way I would like to see it moved for a pick in this years draft is if it’s 11-16 range. 

Yes, if Benning did nothing else, in way of trades than these 2 trades.....I would be really happy

 

1...………..Vegas 2019 1st (17 OA) + Clarkson       for        Vancouver's 2021 1st          Very little cost to Vegas, if any in terms of their pick....Only time

 

2...………..Tampa's 2019 1st (27th OA) + Callahan       for        Vancouver's 2020 2nd     This is a good deal for Tampa

[J.I.A.H.N]

On 5/25/2019 at 12:07 AM, qwijibo said:

I’m not sure there’s a GM in the league that is trading away a 1st for a return that is 3 years away (plus development time). Most gm’s don’t have that sort of long term shelf life. 

It is actually 2 years

[qwijibo]

12 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Yes, if Benning did nothing else, in way of trades than these 2 trades.....I would be really happy

 

1...………..Vegas 2019 1st (17 OA) + Clarkson       for        Vancouver's 2021 1st          Very little cost to Vegas, if any in terms of their pick....Only time

 

2...………..Tampa's 2019 1st (27th OA) + Callahan       for        Vancouver's 2020 2nd     This is a good deal for Tampa

I don’t see a problem with your valuations.  The fly in the ointment for Tampa is Callahan’s M-NTC.  I don’t see him waiving to go from a high powered cup contender with low/no state tax to come to a bottom feeder rebuilding team with much higher taxation.  

[qwijibo]

1 minute ago, janisahockeynut said:

It is actually 2 years

2 years. 3 drafts 

[IBatch]

On 5/25/2019 at 2:52 AM, janisahockeynut said:

Here is one I think could go...……..

 

David Clarkson + 2019 1st (17 OA) for 2021 1st unprotected...…….

 

Vegas needs to clear cap before July 1st, as they are already over Cap and need to sign 4 more players, 1 of which is Willian Karlsson (7 Million ish),

so they will be well over the 10% excess cap restrictions, they are allowed to be over during the summer.

 

To me, that is a lateral transaction, that gets us a second mid first pick 2 years early...…...I don't see the harm and Vegas would be happy with that solution, IMO

 

They still need to get rid of additional cap after that, so...……..they have problems, and a Clarkson buy out doesn't get them far enough...…..

This makes some sense, but only if Benning and co think there is something in the mix worthwhile around that spot.  Both Seider and Broberg are listed early twenties by ISS (the baseline list, these are after all the experts).  It’s not like Bob McKenzie is out there drinking crappy coffee and watching the guys play, he’s creating his list based on the scouts he knows and trusts, and what he hears more than actually watching these kids play.    

 

This a big risk, we could easily be a lottery team again next year.  If EP gets injured or Horvat, no way we make the playoffs.   If Benning goes big of a UFA than id agree this is a pretty good idea.  

 

That said this isn’t a deep draft class and next years is shaping up for a good one...tough call.

[J.I.A.H.N]

1 minute ago, qwijibo said:

I don’t see a problem with your valuations.  The fly in the ointment for Tampa is Callahan’s M-NTC.  I don’t see him waiving to go from a high powered cup contender with low/no state tax to come to a bottom feeder rebuilding team with much higher taxation.  

I do understand your point and am not disagreeing with your point

 

But Callahan is part of the problem, so is Point...……….which one are you going to keep

 

And from Tampa's perspective...……...you are going to make me dismantle my team?...…..I thought you were a team player?

Callahan...……………………………….$&!#...……..OK...……..who is offering you the best deal

 

Maybe not, but I bet that goes through every bodies mind, and Callahan is asked...…………….

[J.I.A.H.N]

5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

This makes some sense, but only if Benning and co think there is something in the mix worthwhile around that spot.  Both Seider and Broberg are listed early twenties by ISS (the baseline list, these are after all the experts).  It’s not like Bob McKenzie is out there drinking crappy coffee and watching the guys play, he’s creating his list based on the scouts he knows and trusts, and what he hears more than actually watching these kids play.    

 

This a big risk, we could easily be a lottery team again next year.  If EP gets injured or Horvat, no way we make the playoffs.   If Benning goes big of a UFA than id agree this is a pretty good idea.  

 

That said this isn’t a deep draft class and next years is shaping up for a good one...tough call.

But I said 2021....big guy...….2021!

 

I also see Benning signing 2 UFA's...………….1 forward and 1 dman

 

And we add Hughes to a full season...…….I would be suprized if we ended up in the top 10 again, if that happens

[IBatch]

21 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

But I said 2021....big guy...….2021!

 

I also see Benning signing 2 UFA's...………….1 forward and 1 dman

 

And we add Hughes to a full season...…….I would be suprized if we ended up in the top 10 again, if that happens

Sorry!  Ha ha.   MY bad.  That makes way more sense. ... carry on next time i will try and read the post with my brain not just my eyeballs...

[spook007]

Don’t like the idea of trading our future first round picks for this years first round picks. I get the idea of trying to speed things up, but ....

 

1. Is the quality really that high in the lower 1st. this year, that we desperately need them?

 

2.  Since there is no guarantee we will be at the dance in two years time, trading our 1 round pick unprotected could end up being one of the biggest downers like ever, should the club A finally get lucky an win the lottery, or B if they get a rotten year and end up like Ottawa this season. 

 

3. When we eventually starts to get competitive again for real, the picks, 1st rounds in particular, are hopefully, whats gonna make it possible keep a strong team of our own stars + top FA players under the cap...

 

So despite the wish for Christmas

to come early or the envious eyes towards the goody bag of picks, getting picks for future picks could come back to haunt us....unless....of course Jb sees a player available that he is 100% sure will end up being a top player.

 

JB’s job is on the line if he gambles and it back fires for any of the above listed reasons. 

Edited May 28, 2019 by spook007

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Yes, if Benning did nothing else, in way of trades than these 2 trades.....I would be really happy

 

1...………..Vegas 2019 1st (17 OA) + Clarkson       for        Vancouver's 2021 1st          Very little cost to Vegas, if any in terms of their pick....Only time

 

2...………..Tampa's 2019 1st (27th OA) + Callahan       for        Vancouver's 2020 2nd     This is a good deal for Tampa

That second trade seems pretty doable. They’d be thanking any team that would do that for them, moving down ten-fifteen spots to rid themselves of that would go a long way in helping them clear cap space for Kucherov and others coming up...

[J.I.A.H.N]

7 hours ago, spook007 said:

Don’t like the idea of trading our future first round picks for this years first round picks. I get the idea of trying to speed things up, but ....

 

1. Is the quality really that high in the lower 1st. this year, that we desperately need them?

 

2.  Since there is no guarantee we will be at the dance in two years time, trading our 1 round pick unprotected could end up being one of the biggest downers like ever, should the club A finally get lucky an win the lottery, or B if they get a rotten year and end up like Ottawa this season. 

 

3. When we eventually starts to get competitive again for real, the picks, 1st rounds in particular, are hopefully, whats gonna make it possible keep a strong team of our own stars + top FA players under the cap...

 

So despite the wish for Christmas

to come early or the envious eyes towards the goody bag of picks, getting picks for future picks could come back to haunt us....unless....of course Jb sees a player available that he is 100% sure will end up being a top player.

 

JB’s job is on the line if he gambles and it back fires for any of the above listed reasons. 

I may have rose colored glasses on big guy, but I feel we are very close to competing in a couple of years, and certainly in 4 or 5, so getting our picks early works in our favor if you think we are going to be a playoff team.

 

I probably would not have the same sense, but I feel Benning maybe be able to pull a couple of UFA's that will make a difference. To me top end UFA's are like top 10 draft picks, and you are lucky enough to have some cap space and some cap savvy, then I think you take big jumps.

 

I am really excited with Hughes, as I think he will be a difference maker. He will be our best Dman ever within a year or 2, lofty expectations I know. But if you are adding what amounts to 3 top picks to your line up in one year, you are going to be better. So, I see with some work, Benning can achieve all this, plus the extra picks. My belief is that it would complete us for the present and the future.....

 

Like I say, probably my rose colored glasses...…..

 

Just a quick note......In Canuck history, the big deals have always worked out for us.....picking Bure even though everyone though he was ineligible, Signing Mogilny, manoeuvring to get the Sedin's, even the signing of the big Swede out of Toronto helped in the long run......Doing moves that do not cost, is a smart thing. 

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, spook007 said:

Don’t like the idea of trading our future first round picks for this years first round picks. I get the idea of trying to speed things up, but ....

 

1. Is the quality really that high in the lower 1st. this year, that we desperately need them?

 

2.  Since there is no guarantee we will be at the dance in two years time, trading our 1 round pick unprotected could end up being one of the biggest downers like ever, should the club A finally get lucky an win the lottery, or B if they get a rotten year and end up like Ottawa this season. 

 

3. When we eventually starts to get competitive again for real, the picks, 1st rounds in particular, are hopefully, whats gonna make it possible keep a strong team of our own stars + top FA players under the cap...

 

So despite the wish for Christmas

to come early or the envious eyes towards the goody bag of picks, getting picks for future picks could come back to haunt us....unless....of course Jb sees a player available that he is 100% sure will end up being a top player.

 

JB’s job is on the line if he gambles and it back fires for any of the above listed reasons. 

Tried a reply and it erased into the cosmos ha ha.  

 

There is some validity in maneuvering in a way that could speed things up.  Some teams have feasted on the first couple of rounds, without picking in lottery and it’s paying big dividends,  Boston case in point.  Pastrnak, McAvoy, DeBrusk, Carlo, Grzelcyk and I think Donato and Heinen are all guys they’ve got from the first few rounds in the past six or seven years.  Not too shabby for a team that’s usually a buyer at the TDL.   Seemed crazy at the time for trading Hamilton (another hit) ... maybe it wasn’t such a bad idea. 

 

PIT has also done pretty well with very little to work with, Guentzal and Murray have played key roles in their cup runs..

 

Bennings hit on both his late firsts, including Boeser.

 

 

That said it could back-fire just as likely and that would be a hard thing for both the team and Benning to recover from.  It’s a what have you done for me lately sort of job...preaching patience only goes so far though and at some point Benning will have to go for it (again), hopefully he’s learned enough not to bother if the timing isn’t right, and at the same time isn’t paralyzed after the LE signing.  

 

Im not overly full of confidence with this draft class other than a few guys past ten...I’m sure there is some good players...maybe not as you say, risky proposition.  

 

To me trading Tanev for a pick seems plausible.   Maybe a second or if we are very lucky a first to a contender (TO?) who really needs what he has to offer.   We could retain too to make it easier for them, or take back a bad contract that’s finished in a year or two max.   Then sign either Stralman or Myers, both would be upgrades IMO.  Size still matters, Hughes and Myers makes a lot of sense given what both bring to the table.  

 

There are several options.  We could trade Tanev and sign EK.  Hughes and Karlsson would make a crazy line that would bump the entire teams production up a big notch.    We are one of a few teams that have the money and that won’t have huge cap issues for his services.  I know it’s a polarizing idea, and his injuries and cap hit make good arguments to stay away...I just am on the side that thinks he’s got a lot of excellent hockey left in him, he just needs some time to settle in and to heal.   Wilson said he was 100% for six weeks, during that time he was the best defenseman in the league and was racking up points..and when he’s 70% he’s still one of the best anyways.   Personally I view him as Crosby but on defense, if you have a chance to sign Crosby in his late twenties you do that every time.  

[spook007]

10 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

I may have rose colored glasses on big guy, but I feel we are very close to competing in a couple of years, and certainly in 4 or 5, so getting our picks early works in our favor if you think we are going to be a playoff team.

 

I probably would not have the same sense, but I feel Benning maybe be able to pull a couple of UFA's that will make a difference. To me top end UFA's are like top 10 draft picks, and you are lucky enough to have some cap space and some cap savvy, then I think you take big jumps.

 

I am really excited with Hughes, as I think he will be a difference maker. He will be our best Dman ever within a year or 2, lofty expectations I know. But if you are adding what amounts to 3 top picks to your line up in one year, you are going to be better. So, I see with some work, Benning can achieve all this, plus the extra picks. My belief is that it would complete us for the present and the future.....

 

Like I say, probably my rose colored glasses...…..

 

Just a quick note......In Canuck history, the big deals have always worked out for us.....picking Bure even though everyone though he was ineligible, Signing Mogilny, manoeuvring to get the Sedin's, even the signing of the big Swede out of Toronto helped in the long run......Doing moves that do not cost, is a smart thing. 

Cheers Jan.

 

I do believe, you could be right and we are getting close, however I don't want to get myself disappointed in case it does take longer.

We may be at the dance as soon as next year as a bubble team, but then miss it the year after... it happens to bubble teams

 

I am not at all against getting a get a few players through FA on the contrary... I think we could solidify our top 6 and improve our D-core substantially by doing so.

My  only concern is to trade away future 1rd picks... Once we are getting to the dance, being able to regularly supplement the squad with younger players, is what keeps teams under the cap.

Obviously with the expansion on the horizon, getting FA's could be risky, in particular if they come with clauses...

 

Guess the one thing I fear in particular, is not having our 1st rd pick, should we win the lottery...

 

The joy is, I don't have to make the call, so I get to sit back in the cheap seats with my popcorn and watch it unfold... 

 

PS wouldn't mind the Tampa idea as long as it would max cost us a 2nd.

 

7 hours ago, IBatch said:

Tried a reply and it erased into the cosmos ha ha.  

 

There is some validity in maneuvering in a way that could speed things up.  Some teams have feasted on the first couple of rounds, without picking in lottery and it’s paying big dividends,  Boston case in point.  Pastrnak, McAvoy, DeBrusk, Carlo, Grzelcyk and I think Donato and Heinen are all guys they’ve got from the first few rounds in the past six or seven years.  Not too shabby for a team that’s usually a buyer at the TDL.   Seemed crazy at the time for trading Hamilton (another hit) ... maybe it wasn’t such a bad idea. 

 

PIT has also done pretty well with very little to work with, Guentzal and Murray have played key roles in their cup runs..

 

Bennings hit on both his late firsts, including Boeser.

 

 

That said it could back-fire just as likely and that would be a hard thing for both the team and Benning to recover from.  It’s a what have you done for me lately sort of job...preaching patience only goes so far though and at some point Benning will have to go for it (again), hopefully he’s learned enough not to bother if the timing isn’t right, and at the same time isn’t paralyzed after the LE signing.  

 

Im not overly full of confidence with this draft class other than a few guys past ten...I’m sure there is some good players...maybe not as you say, risky proposition.  

 

To me trading Tanev for a pick seems plausible.   Maybe a second or if we are very lucky a first to a contender (TO?) who really needs what he has to offer.   We could retain too to make it easier for them, or take back a bad contract that’s finished in a year or two max.   Then sign either Stralman or Myers, both would be upgrades IMO.  Size still matters, Hughes and Myers makes a lot of sense given what both bring to the table.  

 

There are several options.  We could trade Tanev and sign EK.  Hughes and Karlsson would make a crazy line that would bump the entire teams production up a big notch.    We are one of a few teams that have the money and that won’t have huge cap issues for his services.  I know it’s a polarizing idea, and his injuries and cap hit make good arguments to stay away...I just am on the side that thinks he’s got a lot of excellent hockey left in him, he just needs some time to settle in and to heal.   Wilson said he was 100% for six weeks, during that time he was the best defenseman in the league and was racking up points..and when he’s 70% he’s still one of the best anyways.   Personally I view him as Crosby but on defense, if you have a chance to sign Crosby in his late twenties you do that every time.  

Cheers amigo.

 

I would be delighted, if we could get a good defender with size in FA. I still believe that we need good players with size to supplement players like Hughes....or as you said in another post, players who plays 'Big'... I don't really see that in our D-core except for Schenn, and he may not even be back. (Stecher plays biggish... but still...)

Karlsson is a tricky one, as he who take a huge slice of our cap space. Not sure about the, all the eggs in one basket scenario... He would improve our points total instantly, of course provided he stay healthy. But I think we need more than Karlsson to be properly competitive, and think Karlsson would be too early... Maybe not... 

Still a few holes to be covered. Size/toughness on back end, 1LW, 2RW, RHD... if Lind or Madden could take the 2RW, and Karlsson the RHD, we could be 2 years development of a Krebs or similar LW away from contending? (I'm just going by what I've read).

 

As I said to Jan, I just don't like to give away the lottery ticket.....but of course everything has its price

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by spook007

[Alivia]

Hi, i'm pretty knew to all this but i've been looking into the details more and am really into some of the players we've got goin rn.

I had some thoughts on what I think seem like good ideas and just wanted to see if anyone has some input. Pls educate and correct me if i'm being dumb lol

 

From what i see on this contract list, the two players with ending contracts I think we should drop/trade would be Pearson and Edler. I do like Edler, but i've seen some talk saying they're probably going to part ways with him anyways coming up.

   - My thoughts on that is because they are both a little older they have kind of peaked performance wise and don't offer anything really special to our team. They are both just solid players, but I think it would be best to not re-sign or whatever considering our cap and stuff.

 

I was looking into this kid we drafted in i think 2019 thats out at training camp: Nils Hoglander. He seems to be very interesting. Has a nice unique style and a nice and aggressive forecheck. But i was mostly impressed by his puck-handling and creativity. He seems like a perfect fit for Vacnouver and could offer something special. I was imagining him on a line with Pettersson and Miller. I feel like Miller's strength and aggression mixed with Pettersson's smarts and net area control, Hoglander's creative shooting and board work/ offensive puck control could make a really cool and killer line of forwards, with Hughes and Tanev on D. 

So, I would love to see him brought in for some games this coming 2021 season. With that, we could replace Pearson with Boeser from line 1, on with Horvat and Toffoli. The only other thing I would do is try and trade Edler or trade Pearson or draft etc.  for a new D player. Probably someone with really good possession and strength for board battles etc.  

Since our contract cap is like maxed out almost or whatever, I feel it would be smart to bring in Hoglander and give him a  shot since he's already signed. And, if he works out then we aren't expending anything for a new forward. But we really need to work on our offence and breaking through and controlling the puck.

In this scenario basically i'm just suggesting bringing in Hoglander for some games next season. For some other help and shifting, maybe trading Pearson and Edler for a new defenceman- is that realistic? I'm not super clear on this contract and trading stuff.

But if you get my gist what are some thoughts?

 

Thx