Mafia: Treason and Plot [Game over - town win]

[Blue Jay 22]

Stupid bird? 

[Blue Jay 22]

4 hours ago, Ceres said:

Hoggers I distinctly remember watching your town games and thinking: "wow, this guy does solid analytical work". So now when I see this BS you're pushing I get concerned. 

It’s funnier when you read it a 2nd time.

[Blue Jay 22]

Complimentary, yet still a d!ck 

[Zfetch]

Stupid bird

[Zfetch]

Yeah what happened to perhoggies advanced analytics? He used to be so much deeper than this bros

[Blue Jay 22]

Unvote vote Ceres

 

Why should we trust this guy? He never probed or questioned 112 once...BANG...she’s dead. Screams suspect to me.

[hoggers]

4 hours ago, Zfetch said:

Yeah what happened to perhoggies advanced analytics? He used to be so much deeper than this bros

i'm getting too old for this

[falcon45ca]

Hoggers/DM/TL

 

Feel like we've got at least 1 Maf in that group, hopefully 2

 

DM is sitting back way too casually, I feel like he always has some scumhunting going on when he's TP, and right now he's done zilch. Hoggers "wagonomics" on Lucky doesn't sit well, coupled with his "gamestate" claims. TL for being an absentee is not a good look

[falcon45ca]

Christmas came early for lucky...

 

[Ceres]

8 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

Going through round 1...LL is really the only player who gets the FoS spotlighted on him heavily in the first 24 hours - mainly from falcon, Ceres, and 112 - who started the initial FoS.

 

The 2nd wagon doesn't really come in until AV brings up MH, which garners the attention of BW and I would say myself as well. I don't think there was ever more than 2 votes for him at any point though. The 3rd wagon is then formed when DM and LL both vote Zfetch...and there is really not much wagonomics movement after that. Some BJ votes, some fun with hoggers votes, but nothing that seriously challenged the eventual LL hanging.

 

So...the question becomes: was LL more likely to have mean teammates not afraid to bus him...or are his teammates most likely inactive players that were not around to alter the lynch?

Most likely his teammates can be anywhere outside of Zfetch, me, and Falcon. The lucky wagon was too strong and they probably didn't want to push the counter wagon for fear of being caught. Obviously, we should consider when hoggers came after me aggressively before reluctantly switching to lucky.

[milk and honey]

17 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

I am mafia 

 

There we have it boys and girls 

 

Vote bj 

[Ceres]

Round 1 Analysis Part 1

 

On 11/11/2019 at 10:07 PM, luckylager said:

Just home from one helluva hockey tourney. Road trips are fun but tiring AF.

My boy's team did pretty okay, thanks. Better than some, less great than a few. 

 

First read leaves me sketchy on falc. He seems too light to be the typical paranoid, suspicious TP falcon. Also kicked it all off which isn't in keeping with his normal form.

He's fooled me by coming across as fun in the past. Maybe a bit too much lightheartedness tonight, but I'm very grumpy and tired right now so yeah, what4vr right.

 

BJ and 112 with guest appearances. Both look as equally scummy to me... 60%ish.

 

I always feel like milk and dm are scummy. Milk posted scummy but dm hasn't bothered yet.

 

Only real tp lean is in BW, but he's bound to &^@# that up by the morning.

 

Am I missing any players?

 

 

Nyways, I'm going to bed now. Kid's got practice ar 6am, we just got home from a tourney and I'm beat.

 

Not sure when the vote is so incase I miss it - Vote Falcon

 

His playful, nice guy intro isn't in keeping with normal tp falc. 

 

 

 

Lucky's infamous entrance post. He goes after Falcon specifically; they are probably never w/w, as I don't see them as the type to bus like this. 

 

 

On 11/12/2019 at 8:44 AM, falcon45ca said:

This comes across a bit manufactured, so to speak. Throwing shade on DM? The guy has literally done nothing, which is mentioned, but the question is why? Why bring DM up at all? 

 

You missed Hoggers. Also, BW isn't playing. Ceres tho, that's a different whale of a tale.

 

"Not sure when the vote is, so in case I miss it..." Am I the only one who finds that disingenuous? BJ has already mentioned the 48 hr nightfall in game, and it was mentioned prior to game start as well.

Falcon's response to lucky. Again, he comes out looking good. 

 

 

On 11/12/2019 at 1:22 PM, luckylager said:

Because I can't help but scum read him. I said so in my post. That's why I mentioned him. Feels like you didn't actually read my post.

 

Hoggers new avatar isn't nearly as creepy as the old one.

 

Well yeah, you didn't even know when the vote was. Posters talking 48 hrs, host posts 35.

 

Not sure where bj said 48, must have been in a PM you guys got going or something.

Tin-foil intensifies. Guys, I'm telling you: Lucky saw the new avatar in the mafia PM and said this (call it a drunk slip). 

 

 

On 11/12/2019 at 4:49 PM, luckylager said:

Say what?

No you didn't. And now you're just being confusing. 

 

I'm easily confused today. Had a crap sleep and an early wake up so you can &^@# off with your circle talking bs. I won't play right tonight.

Lucky's response to Falcon. They aren't on friendly terms. 

 

 

On 11/12/2019 at 4:57 PM, luckylager said:

The whole conversation between Ceres, 112, BJ and Falc seems weird to me.

None of them are scum hunting each other and here I am thinking there's a good chance three of them are scum and they're pocketing Ceres.

 

This is funny in retrospect. Realistically, Lucky is trying to trick me into being paranoid about the players I'm working with. It's honestly possible that entire group is just villagers. 

 

 

Conclusion: Falcon is a strong village lean. I wouldn't reconsider that read until LYLO.

[falcon45ca]

On 11/12/2019 at 12:07 AM, luckylager said:

Just home from one helluva hockey tourney. Road trips are fun but tiring AF.

My boy's team did pretty okay, thanks. Better than some, less great than a few. 

 

First read leaves me sketchy on falc. He seems too light to be the typical paranoid, suspicious TP falcon. Also kicked it all off which isn't in keeping with his normal form.

He's fooled me by coming across as fun in the past. Maybe a bit too much lightheartedness tonight, but I'm very grumpy and tired right now so yeah, what4vr right.

 

BJ and 112 with guest appearances. Both look as equally scummy to me... 60%ish.

 

I always feel like milk and dm are scummy. Milk posted scummy but dm hasn't bothered yet.

 

Only real tp lean is in BW, but he's bound to &^@# that up by the morning.

 

Am I missing any players?

 

 

Nyways, I'm going to bed now. Kid's got practice ar 6am, we just got home from a tourney and I'm beat.

 

Not sure when the vote is so incase I miss it - Vote Falcon

 

His playful, nice guy intro isn't in keeping with normal tp falc. 

 

 

 

This is Lukcy's first post. Is he hiding a teammate in his scum list, or did he leave them out of this post?

[Ceres]

^ Ugh, I forgot to add some stuff. 

 

I wanted to also mention that up until that point in the game, players like Milk, AV, and BJ had all entered the thread BUT didn't talk about Lucky at all. It was curious and I think there's a teammate in there that was scared to react to the situation. 

[falcon45ca]

Vote Hoggers

 

 

I'm still suspicious of DM

[Ceres]

1 minute ago, falcon45ca said:

This is Lukcy's first post. Is he hiding a teammate in his scum list, or did he leave them out of this post?

Honesty, it's too much WIFOM, but if he did include a teammate or two they would be within Milk and DM. 

[Ceres]

Round 1 Analysis Part 2

 

 

On 11/12/2019 at 9:12 PM, Alain Vigneault said:

Early indications that milk and honey is probably mafia.

 

A slanker like Darth Melvin may be mafia as well.

AV was after Milk and DM. No comment on Lucky, who has many votes at this point. These actions put AV in a position to be heavily suspected; however, when he's a wolf he's very cautious about making sure he always looks good. I'm not sure how to feel about him. 

 

 

On 11/13/2019 at 12:42 AM, Zfetch said:

I like BJ so far.

 

LL is definitely mafia so I'm gonna vote him..I mean just look at the posts for like one second.

 

112 is probably TP.

 

I'd like @hoggers to come in

 

Ceres is playing pretty good for a new player. He's clearly still got a lot to learn but that's okay cuz it's nice to have some new players playing.

 

Vote LL

This pretty much buries Lucky (112, Falcon, and I already voting him). Zfetch does bus from time to time so I'll stay cautious. 

 

 

On 11/13/2019 at 8:25 AM, luckylager said:

So scummy.

 

A late entry, you provide absolutely no substance except for sucking up to a few all stars, then jump on the only wagon in town.

 

Now that's some quality gamesmanship!

 

Let's all watch as Z slanks off and contributes nothing to the game for another 36 hrs.

 

Unvote, Vote Zsketch

 

 

 

 

 

Lucky's OMGUS response to Zfetch. This reads like he's genuinely frustrated and wants to mislynch Zfetch (who he believes has behaved wolfy). This part in particular has me doubting they would ever be teammates, unless Lucky is pissed that Zfetch has bussed him. 

 

 

23 hours ago, DarthMelvin said:

Sounds like Mafia lackey to me... utilize the weak to gain strength...

 

VOTE Z

DM casts a strange Zfetch vote. I bring this up because this is where his vote ended up despite him expressing suspicion of Lucky multiple times. 

 

 

21 hours ago, Ceres said:

Lucky of Lager

Huggers

Milk/Darth

 

EZ Clap?

Yes

 

 

20 hours ago, Alain Vigneault said:

For me, it's between milk and honey and Darth Melvin for the vote.

Yikes.

But twtbw?

 

 

21 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

I don’t necessarily disagree with the pursuit of lucky, but not all scum hunting pursuits are the same, no? I would at least like to keep 112 in discussion to at least offer another perspective of her play. My 3 right now: LL, MH, 112

My hot take is that BJ genuinely wanted to allow the discussion of other wagons before burying Lucky. Am I right?

 

 

Conclusions:

Zfetch is medium/strong town read. 

AV can stay in the neutral/PoE because of his soft defending of Lucky. 

BJ is getting checked by an investigation so that will sort him out. 

[Ceres]

Round 1 Analysis Part 3

 

19 hours ago, milk and honey said:

U and ll

 

I am a good guy this game 

 

Vote bj

I don't understand Milk's mindset behind this. Ofc, it's not a good look. 

 

 

19 hours ago, milk and honey said:

Ll vote seems to have a easy bandwagon. Not liking that. 

 

AV and Hoggers need more post

 

Has tl voted? I know he votes late but maybe scum??? 

Milk shades the Lucky wagon. I don't know if this is genuine or if he wants a reason to not join it. I won't condemn him for these posts but he's going to be deep in the PoE today. 

 

Link because it needs context. This is DM responding to my prompt for people to tell me what was villagery about Lucky. DM replies that nothing is towny and goes on to substantiate that claim. He even mentions that Lucky was trying to pocket me. This is an accurate inference because Lucky certainly was trying to pocket me throughout the round. But it is possible that this could be a TMI read from DM. It's interesting that he never voted Lucky despite all this.

 

 

18 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said:

I didn't like his vote or reasoning behind Zfetch, but to play devil's advocate, I didn't have a problem with his initial posts that got him in trouble/attention in the first place. With players that fluctuate between sober/non-sober posting, sometimes one of their tells is the element of truth behind the wording of their posts as I feel high/drunk people will post honest thoughts in their head regardless of their faction. In LL's case, I thought his posts that contained hockey updates/flash reads came across a typed up brain vomit. He posts TP leans/suspicion percentiles/one-line reasoning all in one post

 

While LL's follow up play to that post has had moments that warrant a microscope look, I didn't like how a wagon quickly materialized between those posts, which is why 112 initially drew my suspicion. And I understand that nightfall time was adjusted, but to follow up the take with the comment that she wanted to tunnel LL until one of them was gone when Zfetch, TL, hoggers, and DM at the time hadn't posted much while AV and I had not posted many reads at the time as well seems uncharacteristic.

 

I suspect you don't want to vote/give attention to 112 this round because A: her reputation and B: your own suspicions of LL...but if hypothetically LL is later revealed as TP or your opinion of him changes, where does that leave you on your opinion of 112 and her contributions so far?

This is very town-POV imo. I guess it can be fabricated, but the paranoia seems real. If BJ is a wolf, he knows he's never lynching 112 here, so I imagine he'd focus his efforts elsewhere. 

 

Another link that needs context. DM suggests Lucky is being "controlled" and potentially has a coach.

 

 

Conclusions: 

DM was very hard on Lucky. However, it pings me as potential TMI, especially when you consider he never even voted Lucky (like he knew Lucky was a wolf but didn't want to vote this teammate). He stays in the PoE. 

[hoggers]

1 hour ago, Ceres said:

Most likely his teammates can be anywhere outside of Zfetch, me, and Falcon. The lucky wagon was too strong and they probably didn't want to push the counter wagon for fear of being caught. Obviously, we should consider when hoggers came after me aggressively before reluctantly switching to lucky.

i voted lucky when momentum was shifting to zfetch

 

why are you trying to rewrite history

[hoggers]

seems wolves are coming out of the woodworks now. i've been pretty consistently busy, but i'll find time to solve this game if necessary later