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Luongo Trade Theory 101


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#391 Canuck Surfer

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 10:18 AM

:picard: :sadno:

His stats weren't all that impressive in Phoenix either way, he had one impressive season, maybe 2.

Smith's stats were not inflated due to Phoenix's system, I'm pretty sure everyone in the Coyotes organization would agree. That was Smith, not there system.


now if I had to choose I might take Komisarek too, but that's not what this was about, if you needed goaltending badly and all you had to give up was an extremely overpaid plug, (Which is a positive in itself) I would do it. You wouldn't have to give up anything, it's risky but even if it doesn't turn out the level of preformence they would get is probably better than what they currently have.


I'd be willing to bet Philly would be happy to trade Bryzgalov for Komisarek straight up, and then go looking for a goalie. MG, is Lou still on the market???

But Toronto would rather trade Komisarek for nothing (and Philly could use him and it could happen) than take on Brygalov.

$50 mill, is expensive but that gives u something is apparently fine as Toronto's interest in Luongo indicates. $50 mill that doesn't is a much bigger problem.

Congrats King! You have just proved Lou's value?

"Struggled in his first year" isn't really a viable excuse when you're talking about a 31 year-old NHL veteran. Remember Keith Ballard? He was supposed to have "adjusted" by year two, was he not?

Bryzgalov's contract is wretched, a team killer. You rather being married to him, at that price, until 2020, versus Komisarek for 1.5 more years at $4.5M, really shows a lack of comprehension.


Edited by Canuck Surfer, 24 December 2012 - 10:19 AM.

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#392 King of the ES

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 10:25 AM

I'd be willing to bet Philly would be happy to trade Bryzgalov for Komisarek straight up, and then go looking for a goalie. MG, is Lou still on the market???

But Toronto would rather trade Komisarek for nothing (and Philly could use him and it could happen) than take on Brygalov.

$50 mill, is expensive but that gives u something is apparently fine as Toronto's interest in Luongo indicates. $50 mill that doesn't is a much bigger problem.

Congrats King! You have just proved Lou's value?


How? Not exactly revolutionary that Lu should be valued higher than Bryzgalov.

The problem with your scenario above - Philadelphia gaining interest in Luongo - is that they'd have to find a buyer for Bryzgalov. Toronto? Not bloody likely. Let's not forget that Bryzgalov also had a tenure with Anaheim prior to his stint with Phoenix. And what happened in Anaheim?

Bryzgalov continued to play backup to Giguere the following season and into the 2007 playoffs. Bryzgalov made comments regarding Anaheim Ducks coach Randy Carlyle, saying he believed Carlyle has no confidence in him...

With the re-signing of Giguère to a four-year contract in the off-season and the acquisition of Jonas Hiller from Switzerland,[6] the Ducks attempted to trade Bryzgalov, but were unable to.[7] General manager Brian Burke claimed he had a deal worked out at the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, but could not finish it.[6] As a result, on November 16, 2007, Bryzgalov was placed on waivers and claimed by the Phoenix Coyotes the following day on November 17.
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#393 Pears

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 06:03 PM

"Struggled in his first year" isn't really a viable excuse when you're talking about a 31 year-old NHL veteran. Remember Keith Ballard? He was supposed to have "adjusted" by year two, was he not?

Bryzgalov's contract is wretched, a team killer. You rather being married to him, at that price, until 2020, versus Komisarek for 1.5 more years at $4.5M, really shows a lack of comprehension.

How exactly is Bryzgalov a team killer? People really shouldn't put much merrit into what you say anymore as you've proven more than once how dumb you are.

And a player can't exactly prove himself when he's benched for the majority of a season.
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In my eyes drouin is overrated he can score in the qmjhl but did nothing in last two gold medal games that canada lost. Fox will be better pro than him talk to me in five yrs

Gaudreau has one NHL goal whereas all your "prized" prospects have none.

   ryan kesler is going to the chicago blackhawks ...       quote me on it


#394 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 06:09 PM

How exactly is Bryzgalov a team killer? People really shouldn't put much merrit into what you say anymore as you've proven more than once how dumb you are.

And a player can't exactly prove himself when he's benched for the majority of a season.


I thaught Ballard adjusted quite nicely, (If that's what you referred to with that last line) He was alot more consistent, he was reliable, made good plays, stood up for teammates, rushed the puck well. Then was one of the few players showed up when it mattered the most.

Not quite the Erik Karlsson breakout year, but he had a much stronger season. But this is something stats can't prove since he had no PP time, so King wouldn't know that since he doesn't watch the games.
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#395 King of the ES

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 08:54 PM

How exactly is Bryzgalov a team killer? People really shouldn't put much merrit into what you say anymore as you've proven more than once how dumb you are.


His contract is a team killer. Not him. When you're earning $5.7M per year, with a contract that extends until 2020, and you're barely asserting yourself as the team's best goaltending option - in year one of the new contract, no less - that's called a disaster.

Kinda like why the Canucks can't keep Luongo for the next 10 years, like you say that they can, because it's simply a horrible use of scarce funds to have them tied up in a backup goaltender.

Edited by King of the ES, 24 December 2012 - 08:55 PM.

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#396 Gollumpus

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 01:03 AM

Kinda like why the Canucks can't keep Luongo for the next 10 years, like you say that they can, because it's simply a horrible use of scarce funds to have them tied up in a backup goaltender.


I don't recall anyone suggesting that the Canucks keep both Schneider and Luongo for all ten of the remaining years on his contract. There may be some who would prefer Luongo over Schneider, but not to keeping both.

This being said, should the Canucks not trade Luongo by the end of the day that the new CBA is finalized, it won't be a bad thing. If Luongo was traded by the end of the week, or the month or maybe even by the trade deadline, I'd be okay with it. However, I would have some reservations should he still be with the team when the playoffs start.

And really, what scarce funds would the Canucks be using up by not trading Luongo sooner? If Luongo has not been traded, then there is likely no great need to allocate the $5.33 million cap hit he represents to another player (or players). The team has $2+ million in free cap space, so should the team have plans to pick up a guy like Arnott, there's cap space to cover him. Actually, there might be even as much as $3 million since the team would likely send/keep someone (Ebbett?) to the minors to make room for a UFA signed for the shortened season.


regards,
G.
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#397 Gollumpus

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 01:04 AM

Stoopid DP.

regards,
G.

Edited by Gollumpus, 25 December 2012 - 01:06 AM.

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#398 Toews

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 06:49 AM

So you're telling me, that you would rather have an absolute pylon of a defenseman than a decent goalie who struggled in his first year in a new system but still put up respectable numbers?

King, you never cease to amaze me.


Do you realize how bad Bryzgalov was last year? More importantly do you realize how bad his contract looks right now? Philly took a huge risk by giving term and money and its backfired in its very first year. Komisarek no matter how bad, still has only a year left after this one. It should be an obvious choice which one you would rather have. Komisarek sitting in the pressbox for 82 games has more value than Bryzgalov does right now.
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#399 smurf47

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 01:30 PM

Do you realize how bad Bryzgalov was last year? More importantly do you realize how bad his contract looks right now? Philly took a huge risk by giving term and money and its backfired in its very first year. Komisarek no matter how bad, still has only a year left after this one. It should be an obvious choice which one you would rather have. Komisarek sitting in the pressbox for 82 games has more value than Bryzgalov does right now.

How bad was Bryz? He was close to Lou in Sp and GAA. He did have a poor start but improved as the season progressed. .He is a better goalie than he was last year and I expect him to rebound next season, The money and term were ridiculous to be sure, as it would be with any player.
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#400 ConnorFutureGM

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 04:07 PM

No team is ballsy enough to trade for Brylgalov.

Payoff could be huge but same with cost.
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#401 smurf47

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 08:42 PM

And you think MG doesn't want to keep two #1 goalies?

I doubt that he does !
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#402 smurf47

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 08:48 PM

Schnieder's value would be more but it's not because he's the better goalie, it's because of his age and contract. He could also go to any team in the leauge so there would be bigger market.

actually...he IS a better goalie ....and his age and contract are better !
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#403 smurf47

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 08:52 PM

Oh, OK. So neither you nor Smashian Kassian see the value - cap space - in having one contract expiring in 2014, versus the other one expiring 6 years later.

Bryz proved what he is last year; an average goaltender who's stats were inflated playing in Phoenix's system (like Smith's are today), and, worse, he's a loudmouth and a headcase. Give me Komisarek with a contract expiring in 2014 over Bryzgalov with a contract expiring in 2020 very easily.

Es...unless you have watched Smith play a lot...keep the subject to something you actually know...and not hearsay.
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#404 ConnorFutureGM

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 11:52 PM

actually...he IS a better goalie ....and his age and contract are better !

I assume I was comparing Schneider to Luongo in that post, it was a while and I don't want to find it.

It's hard to compare Luongo to Schneider. Schneider has played a small fraction of the games Luongo has and Schneider has yet to play a full season as a team's starter.
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#405 Riviera82

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 08:32 AM

I assume I was comparing Schneider to Luongo in that post, it was a while and I don't want to find it.

It's hard to compare Luongo to Schneider. Schneider has played a small fraction of the games Luongo has and Schneider has yet to play a full season as a team's starter.


Just because Luongo has played more games does not mean he's better than Schneider.
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#406 ConnorFutureGM

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 09:17 PM

Just because Luongo has played more games does not mean he's better than Schneider.

No but it does mean he is more proven.

If they both had the same contract that Schneider has, Luongo would be more valuable.
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#407 D-Money

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 09:47 AM

No but it does mean he is more proven.

If they both had the same contract that Schneider has, Luongo would be more valuable.


Briere is more proven than Giroux - but nobody in their right mind would take the former over the latter.

It's similar here. Luongo is a declining asset, and Schneider is just hitting his peak. And Corey has been putting up some of the best numbers in the league at his position. Schneider is worth FAR more than Luongo, regardless of contract.
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#408 smurf47

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 11:47 AM

No but it does mean he is more proven.

If they both had the same contract that Schneider has, Luongo would be more valuable.

In your dreams , more valuable. Proven can mean a lot of different things. Lou has proven to be inconsistant from game to game, has proven that hes not on par with top notch goalies(Quick) in the playoffs. Being middle of the pack in stats last year, proved hes just above average in NHL last year...and..yes, Schneider proved last year that hes better than Lou...and by a long shot !!
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#409 King of the ES

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 05:07 PM

In your dreams , more valuable. Proven can mean a lot of different things. Lou has proven to be inconsistant from game to game, has proven that hes not on par with top notch goalies(Quick) in the playoffs. Being middle of the pack in stats last year, proved hes just above average in NHL last year...and..yes, Schneider proved last year that hes better than Lou...and by a long shot !!


Yet this is the guy that, according to you, can bring Ryan Johansen to Vancouver. Good luck with that one.
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#410 smurf47

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 11:52 PM

Yet this is the guy that, according to you, can bring Ryan Johansen to Vancouver. Good luck with that one.

I have never mentioned Ryan in any post...stub out that doobie and get straight.
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#411 Nuxfanabroad

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:11 PM

On Bryzgalov: I see Calgary as a possible destination-for Kiprusoff. If Philly threw in a couple of their excellent young forwards(eg: Courtourier, Voracek, or Read). The Flyers lose some depth; yet rid themselves of a major blunder, turning it into a positional strength.

In Calgary, Bryzgalov might stop blabbing & simply focus on his job. Then if they swung a similar deal with Iginla, the Flames could have a young, resurgent squad worth watching.

For the Canucks, we're going all the way this year with the incredible-duo. After a championship-run-teams will overpay for Mr Luongo.
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#412 Riviera82

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 07:07 AM

On Bryzgalov: I see Calgary as a possible destination-for Kiprusoff. If Philly threw in a couple of their excellent young forwards(eg: Courtourier, Voracek, or Read). The Flyers lose some depth; yet rid themselves of a major blunder, turning it into a positional strength.

In Calgary, Bryzgalov might stop blabbing & simply focus on his job. Then if they swung a similar deal with Iginla, the Flames could have a young, resurgent squad worth watching.

For the Canucks, we're going all the way this year with the incredible-duo. After a championship-run-teams will overpay for Mr Luongo.


Assuming there is a season and the Canucks win the Stanley Cup, why would anyone overpay for the backup goalie?
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#413 Gollumpus

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 08:50 AM

Assuming there is a season and the Canucks win the Stanley Cup, why would anyone overpay for the backup goalie?


Why? Because the guy is a very good hockey player.

The Avalanche paid a pretty hefty price for Varlamov, and TB traded 3 picks+ for Lindback. They were back-ups. And Luongo is by far the better player compared to either of these.

And prior to last season, how big a price would anyone pay for Schneider, who was the Canucks' back-up?

regards,
G.
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#414 Nuxfanabroad

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 09:52 AM

Assuming there is a season and the Canucks win the Stanley Cup, why would anyone overpay for the backup goalie?
Because BOTH of our fine 'tenders will get a shot(eg:minor injury, flu, etc...), & both will play brilliantly. A little optimism is occasionally warranted.

So how do you like Bryz in Cowtown?


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#415 King of the ES

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:18 PM

Why? Because the guy is a very good hockey player.

The Avalanche paid a pretty hefty price for Varlamov, and TB traded 3 picks+ for Lindback. They were back-ups. And Luongo is by far the better player compared to either of these.

And prior to last season, how big a price would anyone pay for Schneider, who was the Canucks' back-up?


None of the players mentioned are in any way comparable to Luongo. Luongo is 34 years old and has a big money, lifetime contract. Examples you've referenced are all young, inexpensive goaltenders with pedigree and upside.

Schneider would've gotten a king's ransom from any number of rebuilding teams, as they're interested in acquiring someone young, inexpensive, and that can grow with the team while perhaps even assuming a leadership role.

Luongo is simply not comparable, whatsoever, to anyone that you've mentioned.
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#416 Gollumpus

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 03:42 PM

Luongo is simply not comparable, whatsoever, to anyone that you've mentioned.


Ah, so you agree that he is worth a hefty return from the team which does win the bidding once the new CBA is signed. Good.

regards,
G.
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#417 ConnorFutureGM

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 07:23 PM

Briere is more proven than Giroux - but nobody in their right mind would take the former over the latter.

It's similar here. Luongo is a declining asset, and Schneider is just hitting his peak. And Corey has been putting up some of the best numbers in the league at his position. Schneider is worth FAR more than Luongo, regardless of contract.

That's a poor analogy.

Schneider has NEVER been the #1 goalie for an entire season. He has good numbers but he was in a good situation to put up good numbers.

If you have a young defenceman who played 30 games in a season but he just played on the #1 PP unit and in offensive situation and put up 20 points and compare that to a veteran defenceman who plays the entire season and plays against the oppositions best players and plays less on the PP and gets 30 points, it doesn't mean the young guy is better. It means he is less proven.

Edited by ConnorFutureGM, 31 December 2012 - 10:17 PM.

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#418 smurf47

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 06:46 PM

That's a poor analogy.

Schneider has NEVER been the #1 goalie for an entire season. He has good numbers but he was in a good situation to put up good numbers.

If you have a young defenceman who played 30 games in a season but he just played on the #1 PP unit and in offensive situation and put up 20 points and compare that to a veteran defenceman who plays the entire season and plays against the oppositions best players and plays less on the PP and gets 30 points, it doesn't mean the young guy is better. It means he is less proven.

then , what is your excuse for the poorer season that Lou posted? He got yanked once every 11 games, proved his inconsistancy and Schneider excelled at every opportunity. If you knew anything about goaltending, it would be obvious to you who is better. Schneider is better in every facet except puck handling , where they both are below standard ! the floor is yours !!
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#419 ConnorFutureGM

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 11:58 PM

then , what is your excuse for the poorer season that Lou posted? He got yanked once every 11 games, proved his inconsistancy and Schneider excelled at every opportunity. If you knew anything about goaltending, it would be obvious to you who is better. Schneider is better in every facet except puck handling , where they both are below standard ! the floor is yours !!

Put Luongo on the Oilers. What are the chances that Luongo is not good enough to be a starter next season? Very slim, less than 10%.

Put Schneider on the Oilers. What are the chances that Schneider is not good enough to be a starter next season? Possible, more than 10%.

There has been so many flash in the pan goalies, especially if they were on good teams. A team knows that Luongo is a proven starter. Schneider is not.
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