Harvey Spector Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian Building Permits - February 7, 2018 The total value of Canadian building permits increased 5 per cent on a monthly basis in December. The increase was primarily the result of higher construction intentions in the residential sector. For all of 2017, the value of building permits across Canada rose 10.4 per cent. The total value of permits issued in BC broke a string of consecutive down months, rising 27 per cent on a monthly basis and 55.5 per cent year-over-year to 1.5 billion. Residential permits accounted for all of the increase, rising 51 per cent on a monthly basis and 60 per cent over December last year. Non-residential permits declined 17.5 per cent on a monthly basis but were 42 per cent higher year-over-year. Building permits were up 22.9 per cent for all of 2017, the largest increase of all the provinces. Construction intentions in December were higher in only three of BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA): Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA rose 167.1 per cent on a monthly basis to just under $80 million. Year-over-year, permit values were more than triple the value from December 2016. In the Victoria CMA, total construction intentions increased 69.2 per cent to $81.5 million and were up 13.7 per cent year-over-year. In the Kelowna CMA, permits were down 31.6 per cent monthly basis to $52 million, a 16.1 per cent decline from December 2016. The Vancouver CMA recorded permit activity valued at $976.3 million, an increase of 39 per cent over November and up 71 per cent over the last year. For the year as a whole, Vancouver permits rose 14.2 per cent to $9.4 billion with all components except single detached dwellings posting increasing permit values. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Foreign buyers in Metro Vancouver in 2017 February 07, 2018 - Government Relations Are the headlines correct? Did foreign buyers drive the market in Metro Vancouver in 2017? Here’s the latest data from the BC Ministry of Finance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Home buyer demand depends on property type: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 8, 2018 Author Share Posted February 8, 2018 BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian Housing Starts - February 8, 2018 Canadian housing starts began the year essentially flat on a monthly basis at 216,210 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts remained elevated at 224,865 units SAAR. BC saw total housing starts fall 16 per cent to 41,648 units SAAR in December on a monthly basis. However, total starts in BC were up 59 per cent year-over-year. Single detached starts were up 1 per cent on a monthly basis but increased 78 per cent compared to January 2017 while multiple starts were down 21 per cent month-over-month and were 54 per cent higher year-over-year.Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC: Total starts in the Vancouver CMA were higher across all home types, nearly doubling the pace of construction in January 2017. There were a total of 2,599 housing starts across the region compared to just 1,334 the same time last year. In the Victoria CMA, housing starts slowed from the record setting pace of previous months, falling 52 per cent on a monthly basis. However, new home construction remains robust at a more than 3,000 unit annual rate in seasonally adjusted terms. The Kelowna CMA saw an increase from 51 units last January to 87 total starts in January 2018. Much of the increase was the result of new rental unit projects. Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA rose 42 per cent on a monthly basis in January with balanced growth across multiple and single detached starts. However, total housing starts were well behind the pace set in January of 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortorella's Rant Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 Waiting for the collapse like... Is that 20% down for new buyers still a thing? I remember when we bought our place 20 years ago for somewhere in the park of $125-150,000. Now the cheapest you may find for something similar is low $400,000.. and 20% down.. that's too much for most of us young folk not named Brock Boeser right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian Employment - February 9, 2018 A slow start to the year as Canadian employment fell by 88,000 jobs in January. On the bright side, the losses were entirely due to declining part-time work while full-time jobs actually grew by 49,000 and total hours worked were up 2.8 per cent. The national unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 points to 5.9 per cent.In BC, employment was down by 5,100 jobs although full-time employment was up by 4,100 while part-time work declined. Despite those losses, the level of employment was still 2.5 per cent higher than January last year. The provincial unemployment edged up by 0.2 points in January to 4.8 per cent. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Tortorella's Rant said: Waiting for the collapse like... Is that 20% down for new buyers still a thing? I remember when we bought our place 20 years ago for somewhere in the park of $125-150,000. Now the cheapest you may find for something similar is low $400,000.. and 20% down.. that's too much for most of us young folk not named Brock Boeser right now First time buyers are mostly NOT putting down 20%. They simply don't have the downpayment. Most are putting down between 5-15% and getting CMHC insurance for their mortgage, which costs them an additional 2-4.5% CMHC fee on top. Low $400,000's, where are you living John? Are you on the Island or in the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortorella's Rant Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Harvey Spector said: First time buyers are mostly NOT putting down 20%. They simply don't have the downpayment. Most are putting down between 5-15% and getting CMHC insurance for their mortgage, which costs them an additional 2-4.5% CMHC fee on top. Low $400,000's, where are you living John? Are you on the Island or in the interior? Fraser Valley. I mean, that's for like, townhouses. Which is what we have now. 400k depending where you look, which type you get. My uncle got a really nice one not long about for about 500 at a discount because he knew the realtor personally.. sold his house. But if I actually wanted one in my name I'd have to pay almost 4x as much compared to 20 years ago.. Is that 20% not required for first time buyers? I was under the impression it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 9, 2018 Author Share Posted February 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said: Fraser Valley. I mean, that's for like, townhouses. Which is what we have now. 400k depending where you look, which type you get. My uncle got a really nice one not long about for about 500 at a discount because he knew the realtor personally.. sold his house. But if I actually wanted one in my name I'd have to pay almost 4x as much compared to 20 years ago.. Is that 20% not required for first time buyers? I was under the impression it was Ah I see. Townhouses in the Fraser Valley are getting more popular with the young folk. It's a way for them to get into the market in a larger home that is not a condo for far less than what it would cost to buy a detached home. No, if you are a first time buyer you can put down as little as 5% downpayment. Actually even if you are not a first time home buyer you can still put down 5%. You would need to insure your mortgage through CMHC which would charge you a fee of 4.5%, which is added on to the mortgage principal. CMHC doesn't insure anything over $1 million, so effectively if you are buying in the Vancouver area the 5% would only cover condos and townhouses. Also, the 5% down is only for the first $500k purchase price. After $500k the minimum is 10% down up to $1 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 (edited) The Impact of the BC Home Partnership Program on Metro Vancouver Home Prices Summary Findings: Our analysis indicates that the Home Partnership Program (HPP) contributed to an annualized increase of 0.55 per cent to the market price of an apartment and an increase of 0.57 per cent to the market price of a townhouse in Metro Vancouver over the first three-quarters of 2017. The HPP either paid or approved a total 1,395 transactions as of September 2017. This represented 1.7 per cent of total BC home sales and 0.9 per cent of the dollar volume. Approximately one-third of the HPP paid or approved transactions occurred in Metro Vancouver, comprising 1.2 per cent of total home sales. Nearly all the HPP paid or approved transactions (96%) in Metro Vancouver were for apartments or townhouses. Analysis: In December 2016, the BC government announced the creation of the Home Partnership Program (HPP) to provide down-payment assistance for prospective BC homebuyers. The assistance was in the form of a second loan that is interest and payment-free for the first 5 years, with interest accruing and principle/interest payments beginning in the 6th year. Using program data provided by BC Housing, we analyzed the impact of HPP on home prices over its first nine months. As of September 2017, the HPP either paid or approved 1,395 transactions representing 1.7 per cent of total BC home sales and 0.9 per cent of dollar volume. Those purchases were widely dispersed around the province with BC’s four largest cities accounting for close to half of purchases facilitated through the program. Approximately one-third of total HPP transactions by count and 40 per cent by dollar volume were in the Metro Vancouver area, accounting for 1.2 per cent of total home sales. The next highest participating region was Victoria, which accounted for just 6 per cent of the total HPP transactions. In Metro Vancouver, the typical successful HPP applicant was as expected. Most were relatively young first-time homebuyers, purchasing homes within their financial means. The median buyer in the first nine months of the program was 33 years of age with an income of about $82,800. The median home price of HPP funded purchases was $415,000, with a down payment of 10 per cent, half of which was provided through the HPP. Approximately 30% of those buyers in Metro Vancouver had less than the 5 per cent down payment required before accessing the HPP funds. Of the total number of HPP funded purchases in Metro Vancouver, about 96 per cent were in the apartment or townhouse segment of the market, which is the focus of our impact analysis. Our analysis indicates that the HPP was helpful to many homebuyers, but not popular enough to cause a significant impact on market conditions, given the program timing coincided with already constrained supply conditions. As an analytical framework, we incorporated a measure of market conditions known as the sales-to-active listing ratio (SALR). This ratio captures the relative balance between supply and demand in a housing market. Using this simple but powerful framework, the relationship between home sales and the supply of homes on the market is directly linked to changes in the market price of homes. A very high SALR typically means that supply is falling short of demand and that home buyers are bidding up home prices. A very low SALR typically brings declining home prices as excess supply causes home sellers to bid down their asking price to attract a relatively scarce number of home buyers. To account for the impact of the HPP, we control for what the sales-to-active listings ratio would likely have been without the HPP. In effect, home sales (demand) would be lower while the number of homes for sale (supply) would be higher, resulting in a lower SALR and, therefore, slower growth in prices. For example, from January to September 2017, the six month trend in the Metro Vancouver apartment SALR was 65.4 per cent. At this level, the SALR model would predict annual apartment price growth of approximately 18.6 per cent. Adjusting for the impact of the HPP by pulling out those transactions and adding back the supply, the SALR would fall to 62.3 per cent, a level that correlates with an annual home price growth of approximately 18.06 per cent. This suggests that the annualized impact of the HPP on Metro Vancouver apartment prices was about 0.55 per cent over the period. Similarly, in the townhouse segment, we estimate that without transactions through the HPP, growth in home prices would have been reduced by 0.57 per cent on an annual basis. This analysis incorporates the most liberal assumption that all successful HPP applicants would not have purchased a home without the added assistance of the program. Even under this discipline, we find the program was not a significant driver of price appreciation in the Metro Vancouver housing market. Cameron Muir, Chief Economist, cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca; 604.742.2780 Brendon Ogmundson, Economist, bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca; 604.742.2796 Additional economics information is available on BCREA’s website at: www.bcrea.bc.ca. To sign up for BCREA news releases by email visit: www.bcrea.bc.ca/news-and-publications/publications/ manage subscriptions. Edited February 13, 2018 by Harvey Spector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down by the River Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 We found a condo in North Burnaby for 399,999. Made an offer of 420,000. Sale price was 438,888. Ouch. The interior was in bad shape. Needed new w/d, microwave, oven, and carpets needed to be replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violator Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 https://news.google.ca/news/amp?caurl=http%3A%2F%2Fvancouversun.com%2Fnews%2Flocal-news%2Fpanama-papers-tax-raid-hits-west-vancouver#pt0-351557 Part of the panama papers leak not suprised about the real estate A December 2016 report from anti-corruption group Transparency International reported that Mossack Fonseca had identified Canada “as an attractive place to set up anonymous companies.” According to the report, half of Vancouver’s 100 most expensive homes at the time had been bought using shell companies or other financial tools that obscured the identity of the true owners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Violator said: https://news.google.ca/news/amp?caurl=http%3A%2F%2Fvancouversun.com%2Fnews%2Flocal-news%2Fpanama-papers-tax-raid-hits-west-vancouver#pt0-351557 Part of the panama papers leak not suprised about the real estate A December 2016 report from anti-corruption group Transparency International reported that Mossack Fonseca had identified Canada “as an attractive place to set up anonymous companies.” According to the report, half of Vancouver’s 100 most expensive homes at the time had been bought using shell companies or other financial tools that obscured the identity of the true owners. Depressing to hear that so much real estate in Vancouver is bought through dirty money...... Canadians are so naive ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harvey Spector Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 For immediate release BC Home Sales Dip After Strong December Vancouver, BC – February 15, 2018. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,306 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in January, an increase of 18.3 per cent from the same period last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $721,477, up 16.2 per cent from the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $3.83 billion, a 37.4 per cent increase from January 2017. “BC home sales dipped 10 per cent from December to January, on a seasonally adjusted basis," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "New mortgage rules requiring conventional borrowers to qualify at a higher interest rate likely contributed to the decline in home sales last month. The impact was magnified by a strong December as many households advanced their purchase decisions ahead of the policy's implementation." Despite the decline in January transactions, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of home sales was 101,800 units. Compared to January 2017, market conditions tightened in all BC board areas except Victoria, where the sales-to-active listings ratio declined from 46.3 per cent to 40.5 per cent. Despite this decline, Victoria remains in strong sellers' market territory. Total active listings in the province were down 8.6 per cent to 20,901 units, compared to the same period last year. BCREA is the professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC, focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing professional education, advocacy, economic research and standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients. To demonstrate the profession's commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities, BCREA supports policies that help ensure economic vitality, provide housing opportunities, preserve the environment, protect property owners and build better communities with good schools and safe neighbourhoods. For detailed statistical information, contact your local real estate board. MLS® is a cooperative marketing system used only by Canada's real estate boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Kiwis consider foreign house buyer ban By Phil MercerBBC News, Wellington 16 February 2018 Share this with Facebook Share this with Twitter Share this with Messenger Share this with Email Share Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionThe dream of home ownership is fading for many New Zealanders In one of the world's most liveable cities, and arguably its windiest, there are tough choices for prospective first-time property buyers in Wellington, where real estate prices soared by more than 18% in the year to June 2017. For Sam, a mother in her thirties, the decision was unenviable; a baby or a house. "It was basically making those hard choices whether (to) make our family larger and have another child (or) to try to get a house because you can't really do both at the same time," she told BBC News. "It is hard. I'm trying to convince my partner to move elsewhere." http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42964656 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Canada - BC government to increase foreign buyer tax on housing, include more cities British Columbia budget announcements Projects budget surplus of C$219 million in 2018/19, sixth consecutive balanced budget Gov't says will increase foreign buyer tax on housing to 20 pct, widen to include more cities To impose speculation tax on value of housing, 0.5 pct in 2018, rising to 2 pct in 2019 To spend C$1.6 billion over three years on increasing affordable housing supply Another weight added to Canada housing prices. At least in one province. (those Headlines via Reuters) http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/canada-bc-government-to-increase-foreign-buyer-tax-on-housing-include-more-cities-20180220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken. Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 SO astounding reading about our incompetent government overlords.. Globe and Mail is helping solve financial crimes better than investigators now.. https://globalnews.ca/news/4034217/no-quick-fix-bcs-attorney-general-says-money-laundering-in-real-estate-casinos-will-take-years-solve/ There better be some huge undercover operations happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taxi Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 The government needs to do something more to address the property already in the hands of foreign buyers. If they've been buying even 3% of our property every year, but just parking the money there, that's a significant share of the property. The government should force sales, thus increasing supply. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 (edited) Time to SELL, SELL , and SELL Get out of the real estate market immediately..... BC housing prices are about to TANK faster than the canuck team after 2011 http://theprovince.com/business/home-sales-plummet-16-9-as-average-price-drops-5-led-by-vancouver-toronto/wcm/a565539c-d3b1-4da0-830d-add6411e2c69 Edited March 15, 2018 by kingofsurrey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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