Nikolaj Ehlers

[Gyllenhaal]

Because AbsentCanuck asked...

Nikolaj Ehlers Draft year playoff stats:

Round 1 (Charlottetown)

4games - 4g, 10pts

Round 2 (Gatineau)

5games - 4g, 10pts

Round 3 (Val-D'Or)

7games - 3g, 8pts

total points: 11goals, 28 points

Jonathan Drouin Draft year playoff stats:

Round1 (Saint John)

4games - 2g, 10pts,

Round 2 (Gatineau)

4games - 2g, 5pts

Round 3 (Rouyn-Noranda)

4games - 6g, 14pts

Round 4 (Baie-Comeau)

5games - 2g, 5pts

total points(up to round 3): 10 goals, 31 points

Very similar stats up to the 3rd round so make whatever assumption you want with it. Also I know nothing about the Q since we have no prospects in it so some insight into how good the teams they versed would be helpful.

[Absent Canuck]

Mostly come on here to check things out every so often. Just noticed your post count while reading your passionate endorsement of Ehlers. Although, with so many posts promoting one guy, one might think you are actually that guy.....

Why thank you. I appreciate the endorsement and the time you took to look up the post count. Most many not figure it to be a necessary cause nor even a worthwhile task . I do appreciate the effort nonetheless

Getting back to the topic at hand , the natural concequence to the Ehlers finding would be to compare them to other draft eligible players to see if he is worth his salt.

No doubt Minister is guilty of an oversight. A man with his objectivity and integrity would have surely done so if it had dawned on him that we might want a comparison to other prospects as a backdrop instead of trying to come to a conclusion based of using straight conjecture to digest the stats on one player in one playoff series.

So to help the Minister out, I have done such homework. Using Virtanen and Ritchie would not be a kind comparison and even though its the best we have until they are drafted, it says more about these two in a negative light rather than Ehlers himself.

So I have chosen a player who is draft eligible and put up some pretty damn fine numbers. Robbie Fabbri.

Fabbri has had a fantastic playoff. It has no doubt turned many scouts heads. ISS is so taken by him that in their eyes has vaulted past Ehlers in their draft rankings. Quite an endorsement indeed.

And its for good reason. The kid was injured in his first series and only registered one assist in the lone game he played. But after he got back in time for round two, he came out of the gate flying.

The kid put up 15 goals and 38 points in his tenure during the 2014 extra session. Ehlers only mustered 29 points in 21 games. That is a noticeable difference.

As the Minister took pains to isolate Ehlers in his final frame I too decided to look at Fabbri in his finest hour. I mean no disrespect to North Bay as their final opponent, but they were a weak second seed with 82 points when they entered the draw and made their way through the bracket beating teams Niagra who had 57 points, Barrie who had 77 and then finally faced a team who had more points than they. Oshawa had 8 more. 90 points and they took care of them in straight sets.

So instead I chose the semifinal series against an excellent Erie team with their scoring champion and our own goal scoring king Dane Fox. An up and coming kid named McDavid was also along for the fun.

The Storm have no superstars such as Drouin that Ehlers sided with or Mantha whom vanquished them in that fateful 7 game series. However, the storm do have a highly touted Kerby Rychel and they score by committee. Fabbri is right in the middle of it.

He exploded for 4 goals and 9 big points in a short 5 game dispatching of the Otters. 9 points in 5 games is superior to 8 points in 7 against the Val d'or team Ehlers had to contend with.

Fabbri is a great prospect. I dont take him at #6, but his hot playoff certainly has put him on that conversation. All 5ft 10 and 156 to 180 pounds of him, depending on which prospectus you believe. He is also a center and Ehlers only a winger. Definitely food for thought.

[Absent Canuck]

Because AbsentCanuck asked...

Nikolaj Ehlers Draft year playoff stats:

Round 1 (Charlottetown)

4games - 4g, 10pts

Round 2 (Gatineau)

5games - 4g, 10pts

Round 3 (Val-D'Or)

7games - 3g, 8pts

total points: 11goals, 28 points

Jonathan Drouin Draft year playoff stats:

Round1 (Saint John)

4games - 2g, 10pts,

Round 2 (Gatineau)

4games - 2g, 5pts

Round 3 (Rouyn-Noranda)

4games - 6g, 14pts

Round 4 (Baie-Comeau)

5games - 2g, 5pts

total points(up to round 3): 10 goals, 31 points

Very similar stats up to the 3rd round so make whatever assumption you want with it. Also I know nothing about the Q since we have no prospects in it so some insight into how good the teams they versed would be helpful.

Thanks dude. I keyed in on a guy who is being drafted this year but I appreciate the effort nonetheless.

[Stelar]

Why thank you. I appreciate the endorsement and the time you took to look up the post count. Most many not figure it to be a necessary cause nor even a worthwhile task . I do appreciate the effort nonetheless

Getting back to the topic at hand , the natural concequence to the Ehlers finding would be to compare them to other draft eligible players to see if he is worth his salt.

No doubt Minister is guilty of an oversight. A man with his objectivity and integrity would have surely done so if it had dawned on him that we might want a comparison to other prospects as a backdrop instead of trying to come to a conclusion based of using straight conjecture to digest the stats on one player in one playoff series.

So to help the Minister out, I have done such homework. Using Virtanen and Ritchie would not be a kind comparison and even though its the best we have until they are drafted, it says more about these two in a negative light rather than Ehlers himself.

So I have chosen a player who is draft eligible and put up some pretty damn fine numbers. Robbie Fabbri.

Fabbri has had a fantastic playoff. It has no doubt turned many scouts heads. ISS is so taken by him that in their eyes has vaulted past Ehlers in their draft rankings. Quite an endorsement indeed.

And its for good reason. The kid was injured in his first series and only registered one assist in the lone game he played. But after he got back in time for round two, he came out of the gate flying.

The kid put up 15 goals and 38 points in his tenure during the 2014 extra session. Ehlers only mustered 29 points in 21 games. That is a noticeable difference.

As the Minister took pains to isolate Ehlers in his final frame I too decided to look at Fabbri in his finest hour. I mean no disrespect to North Bay as their final opponent, but they were a weak second seed with 82 points when they entered the draw and made their way through the bracket beating teams Niagra who had 57 points, Barrie who had 77 and then finally faced a team who had more points than they. Oshawa had 8 more. 90 points and they took care of them in straight sets.

So instead I chose the semifinal series against an excellent Erie team with their scoring champion and our own goal scoring king Dane Fox. An up and coming kid named McDavid was also along for the fun.

The Storm have no superstars such as Drouin that Ehlers sided with or Mantha whom vanquished them in that fateful 7 game series. However, the storm do have a highly touted Kerby Rychel and they score by committee. Fabbri is right in the middle of it.

He exploded for 4 goals and 9 big points in a short 5 game dispatching of the Otters. 9 points in 5 games is superior to 8 points in 7 against the Val d'or team Ehlers had to contend with.

Fabbri is a great prospect. I dont take him at #6, but his hot playoff certainly has put him on that conversation. All 5ft 10 and 156 to 180 pounds of him, depending on which prospectus you believe. He is also a center and Ehlers only a winger. Definitely food for thought.

Ya, a lot of hard work was put into finding out your post per day rate. Took about 1 min.

[Smashian Kassian]

I haven't do e it for Drouin this year because it doesn't affect his draft position. He's in the past as far as I'm concerned.

I had done some analysis of Virtanen, Ritchie and Fleury because they are around my pool draft position

I'm not sure why I'd be asked to post that here though since this is the Ehlers thread.

Apparently any comment I make on hockey prospects will be blasted and seen as biased.

Well, why I bring up Drouin is that he is widely considered one of the very best NHL prospects, if not the best prospect.

But, if one were to pull out similar stats like you did with Ehlers, for him, and it showed he got the majority of his points against "weaker teams", would he be valued less as a prospect? I doubt it.

Same could be said for someone like Mantha, or as I said in my last post, any highly regarded prospect in the CHL, all 3 leagues have weaker teams & stronger teams.

That might be useful for context. Because if its a concern of yours (which is fine, I respect your opinion & I'm not trying to change it or anything), then we should see if its just an issue with Ehlers (which would IMO then really be a concern) or if its something that is attributed to other highly regarded prospects aswell.

[theminister]

Well, why I bring up Drouin is that he is widely considered one of the very best NHL prospects, if not the best prospect.

But, if one were to pull out similar stats like you did with Ehlers, for him, and it showed he got the majority of his points against "weaker teams", would he be valued less as a prospect? I doubt it.

Same could be said for someone like Mantha, or as I said in my last post, any highly regarded prospect in the CHL, all 3 leagues have weaker teams & stronger teams.

That might be useful for context. Because if its a concern of yours (which is fine, I respect your opinion & I'm not trying to change it or anything), then we should see if its just an issue with Ehlers (which would IMO then really be a concern) or if its something that is attributed to other highly regarded prospects aswell.

Feel free. I wouldn't discourage you doing it. I just haven't.

I was concerning myself with only this draft class in that range.

I did post the Ritchie comparison in the other thread.

My intention wasn't to minimize Ehlers as a prospect but to provide some food for thought that I use to evaluate draft eligible players.

[Absent Canuck]

Ya, a lot of hard work was put into finding out your post per day rate. Took about 1 min.

Why would you want to even do that? I dont know anyone who finds value in looking up other posters point count. Perhaps you could start to talk about ice hockey now ! There is a fairly mainstream concept. I know you dont come here under that ID often so you might have forgotten its a hockey forum.

[TOMapleLaughs]

I guess the points-only argument is appropiate, as Ehlers is a purely offensive player. The question is if it can translate. Hence the argument about the offense being sub-Drouin and being not quite as good against tougher checking. But why?

During my watching of him, I've noticed that he's not the most balanced skater on the ice. This is a bit of a concern.

He seemed to do most of his damage in wide open opportunites and on the power play. This is typical for most offensive stars. He was moved from the right boards to the point later on in the playoffs. To either mix it up or to get him some more room, as the power play effectiveness dropped. Anyway, it's pretty easy to watch him play and tell that he needs space to operate effectively. It's just how he plays. It's very likely going to be the way he plays to be effective until he becomes a more balanced skater, or a bit more effective on the boards.

Not sure why Ritchie or Virtanen came up, and this will be viewed as an 'excuse', but Virtanen and Ritchie bring more to the table than mere points. They have a more diverse skillset, including physical skills that scouts love, while having compatable offensive skills to Ehlers. That's probably why they're ranked higher in this draft. However, both those players have risks too.

[Absent Canuck]

Well, why I bring up Drouin is that he is widely considered one of the very best NHL prospects, if not the best prospect.

But, if one were to pull out similar stats like you did with Ehlers, for him, and it showed he got the majority of his points against "weaker teams", would he be valued less as a prospect? I doubt it.

Same could be said for someone like Mantha, or as I said in my last post, any highly regarded prospect in the CHL, all 3 leagues have weaker teams & stronger teams.

That might be useful for context. Because if its a concern of yours (which is fine, I respect your opinion & I'm not trying to change it or anything), then we should see if its just an issue with Ehlers (which would IMO then really be a concern) or if its something that is attributed to other highly regarded prospects aswell.

We should just move on with comparing the stats with the others. I wouldnt waste any energy in trying to convince the Minister he is wrong. He knows hes wrong. He knew it all along. He was only interested in dissecting the stats to find 'concerns' with Ehlers to piss off the Ehlers supporters while still pretending to be objective.

[Bruce Boudreau]

Ehlers is more likely to have success in the east. A team like Carolina should take him.

Virtanen seems like the safer pick who may be able to contribute right away with his combination of size,speed, and shot.

I would be wary about Ritchie who is already that heavy. Will he be the next Dustin Penner or Byfuglien(the forward version) if he can't keep his weight in check?

With Ehlers at his size he is top six or bust. While Virtanen doesn't have to be top six right away and can play on the third line.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Ehlers is more likely to have success in the east. A team like Carolina should take him.

Virtanen seems like the safer pick who may be able to contribute right away with his combination of size,speed, and shot.

I would be wary about Ritchie who is already that heavy. Will he be the next Dustin Penner or Byfuglien(the forward version) if he can't keep his weight in check?

I totally agree. I think Carolina has a love for Kapanen though. We'll see. NYI/Buf may roll the dice on Ehlers. TO? We'll see there too. I think he'd do far better in the east like post-injury Raymond and Grabner.

I think scouts look at total package and not just points. Plenty of high-points guys in every draft fall because of other issues.

[Bruce Boudreau]

I totally agree. I think Carolina has a love for Kapanen though. We'll see. NYI/Buf may roll the dice on Ehlers. TO? We'll see there too. I think he'd do far better in the east like post-injury Raymond and Grabner.

I think scouts look at total package and not just points. Plenty of high-points guys in every draft fall because of other issues.

Agree on Kapanen he is a logical fit there with Ron Francis in charge who obviously played with his dad Sami.

Ehlers may not make it past Winnipeg at 9 though. They showed they are not scared of taking smaller guys when they took Petan last year and plus they already have Little who is a smallish guy on the team and need top six forward help.

[Smashian Kassian]

Feel free. I wouldn't discourage you doing it. I just haven't.

I was concerning myself with only this draft class in that range.

I did post the Ritchie comparison in the other thread.

My intention wasn't to minimize Ehlers as a prospect but to provide some food for thought that I use to evaluate draft eligible players.

I've done some work on this.

I think its very important to note, that 3 of the bottom 5 teams play in their division. So make of that what you want.

Here's Drouin's stats against those teams:

17/29 goals = 58%

54/108 points = 50%

Ehlers:

26/49 goals = 53%

52/104 points = 50%

So same points, Drouin had a higher % of goals against those teams. So its the same thing for him. Perhaps these 2 could be the reason why those teams are lower in the standings?

Dal Colle had 17 of his 39 goals come against bottom 6 teams, two of which are in his division.

Ritchie had 16 of his 36 goals & 32 of his 74 points against those bottom 6 teams. Again 2 of them in the division.

At the same time though, the OHL has 2 more teams & is structured differently. So that has to be taken into consideration. The leagues are different sizes & different structurly, but all prospects get alot of points against "lesser teams" even the best of the best like Drouin.

I just don't think its that big a deal you when you look at it with greater context, though I see where you are coming from with this.

[Smashian Kassian]

I guess the points-only argument is appropiate, as Ehlers is a purely offensive player. The question is if it can translate. Hence the argument about the offense being sub-Drouin and being not quite as good against tougher checking. But why?

During my watching of him, I've noticed that he's not the most balanced skater on the ice. This is a bit of a concern.

He seemed to do most of his damage in wide open opportunites and on the power play. This is typical for most offensive stars. He was moved from the right boards to the point later on in the playoffs. To either mix it up or to get him some more room, as the power play effectiveness dropped. Anyway, it's pretty easy to watch him play and tell that he needs space to operate effectively. It's just how he plays. It's very likely going to be the way he plays to be effective until he becomes a more balanced skater, or a bit more effective on the boards.

Not sure why Ritchie or Virtanen came up, and this will be viewed as an 'excuse', but Virtanen and Ritchie bring more to the table than mere points. They have a more diverse skillset, including physical skills that scouts love, while having compatable offensive skills to Ehlers. That's probably why they're ranked higher in this draft. However, both those players have risks too.

Ehlers plays the Kessel role on the PP, he's always on that one side either higher or lower depending on whats going on with the puck, its hockey sense, getting himself open to get goals, thats why you see in his highlights some goals are wrists shots from the point on the PP, or some lower down for the backdoor play.

Anyways I would argue Ehlers doesn't just bring offense, I mean yeah thats what he is drafted for to be an offensive player, but you bring up Virtanen, and I would say he's being drafted for his goal scoring, yeah he has a physical element that could make him a 4th line guy, but I would say Ehlers could also be a very useful penalty killer, since he has the willingness to play a two-way game, he will grow in that area, and with his speed could be a responsible two-way player, say for whatever reason he doesn't hit high potential, he could be a Carl Hagelin type with a bit better offensive skill, which IMO is a much better style comparison than Raymond.

[theminister]

I've done some work on this.

I think its very important to note, that 3 of the bottom 5 teams play in their division. So make of that what you want.

Here's Drouin's stats against those teams:

17/29 goals = 58%

54/108 points = 50%

Ehlers:

26/49 goals = 53%

52/104 points = 50%

So same points, Drouin had a higher % of goals against those teams. So its the same thing for him. Perhaps these 2 could be the reason why those teams are lower in the standings?

Dal Colle had 17 of his 39 goals come against bottom 6 teams, two of which are in his division.

Ritchie had 16 of his 36 goals & 32 of his 74 points against those bottom 6 teams. Again 2 of them in the division.

At the same time though, the OHL has 2 more teams & is structured differently. So that has to be taken into consideration. The leagues are different sizes & different structurly, but all prospects get alot of points against "lesser teams" even the best of the best like Drouin.

I just don't think its that big a deal you when you look at it with greater context, though I see where you are coming from with this.

It's certainly not the be all end all and I agree that the structure of the leagues affects how you look at the info.

The real question, in my mind, is not how many points and goals he gets against the lesser teams but how few of them come against top teams. To me this suggest a correlation that he gets shut down a lot against higher quality competition, at least in this one season. As I said in a previous post, it will greatly depend on his next level and how well he can adjust. He is doubtless going to improve upon those numbers next season but can he raise his game enough to equalize those numbers a bit. Only time will tell.

In the past I've looked for a greater balance in scoring against competition as an indicator of whether a prospect can maintain their pace under more difficult circumstances. Ehlers numbers in this regard are quite tilted in the wrong direction. Again, it's not definitive but it is an indicator to me.

[Absent Canuck]

I've done some work on this.

I think its very important to note, that 3 of the bottom 5 teams play in their division. So make of that what you want.

Here's Drouin's stats against those teams:

17/29 goals = 58%

54/108 points = 50%

Ehlers:

26/49 goals = 53%

52/104 points = 50%

So same points, Drouin had a higher % of goals against those teams. So its the same thing for him. Perhaps these 2 could be the reason why those teams are lower in the standings?

Dal Colle had 17 of his 39 goals come against bottom 6 teams, two of which are in his division.

Ritchie had 16 of his 36 goals & 32 of his 74 points against those bottom 6 teams. Again 2 of them in the division.

At the same time though, the OHL has 2 more teams & is structured differently. So that has to be taken into consideration. The leagues are different sizes & different structurly, but all prospects get alot of points against "lesser teams" even the best of the best like Drouin.

I just don't think its that big a deal you when you look at it with greater context, though I see where you are coming from with this.

Ok now you are making a completely different argument from what was originally brought forward . He changed the parameters when the original assessment didnt go his way.

You guys are now digging so far into the weeds that it becomes so subjective it has little informational value. Halifax had a weaker division so they had an extra team to pad their stats ? I guess they should have not scored on purpose so the scouts wouldnt penalize them for it. Do we chop the weak stats by a 1/3d because Dal Colle or Daisaitl only have 2 weak teams in their division ?

Do you know how long that would take to go through every prospect in the last 10 years to see if that kind of stat has an effect on their eventual NHL career? You can dig even further into the math until you head is spinning.

How many goals did Ehlers get when the opposing team had a back to back? What about if some of their guys had the flu? What if they goalie was in a slump? What about a prospect who played on a lousy team so all the other teams were fantastic compared to him? Does that skyrocket him to the top because his goals came against 'harder' teams?

I appreciate the Drouin comparison as we see its virtually identical.However, can you honestly say you have gained ANY tangible insight into the players that you didnt have before ? I find it hard to believe.

Here is a basic stat that would interest the scouts.

Goals per game per league 2014

OHL 6.9

QMJHL 6.8

WHL 6.6

When I saw this I threw out the myth that Ehlers and Drouin were padding their stats in a weak league. I also had more respect for Reinhart's and Daisaitls totals.

[Absent Canuck]

Ehlers is more likely to have success in the east. A team like Carolina should take him.

Virtanen seems like the safer pick who may be able to contribute right away with his combination of size,speed, and shot.

I would be wary about Ritchie who is already that heavy. Will he be the next Dustin Penner or Byfuglien(the forward version) if he can't keep his weight in check?

With Ehlers at his size he is top six or bust. While Virtanen doesn't have to be top six right away and can play on the third line.

I havent heard this one since page 35 of the thread. Why do you think so ?

[Bruce Boudreau]

I havent heard this one since page 35 of the thread. Why do you think so ?

In general most teams in the east play a pretty wide open style with lax defensive structure outside from the Bruins and Habs. There is more room to operate on the ice for smaller and faster skilled players.

Many players like Johnson, Gallagher, Zucarello, Nyquist, Tatar etc have had success in the east as smaller guys. The west in general has bigger more physical teams who are tighter defensively.

There are a select few who have had success in the west as smaller guys over a sustained period of time. Namely Kane, Cammalleri, and Little off the top of my head.

All the California teams have size specifically in the Canucks division. Ehlers seems like he would more likely thrive in the East with less defensive responsibility and the green light to rush with puck and take chances without worrying as much about playing a two-way game.

Plus many smallish players like him have already done really well in the east. Just saying I would feel way more safer if I was an Eastern team taking him than one from the west.

Of course if he surprises with his official combine measurements and arrives bigger than originally thought with the frame to add 10-15 more pounds on top of that in the future, then I would reconsider him for the Canucks or any western team and feel better about his durability and drafting him at #6.

[Absent Canuck]

In general most teams in the east play a pretty wide open style with lax defensive structure outside from the Bruins and Habs. There is more room to operate on the ice for smaller and faster skilled players.

Many players like Johnson, Gallagher, Zucarello, Nyquist, Tatar etc have had success in the east as smaller guys. The west in general has bigger more physical teams who are tighter defensively.

There are a select few who have had success in the west as smaller guys over a sustained period of time. Namely Kane, Cammalleri, and Little off the top of my head.

All the California teams have size specifically in the Canucks division. Ehlers seems like he would more likely thrive in the East with less defensive responsibility and the green light to rush with puck and take chances without worrying as much about playing a two-way game.

Plus many smallish players like him have already done really well in the east. Just saying I would feel way more safer if I was an Eastern team taking him than one from the west.

Of course if he surprises with his official combine measurements and arrives bigger than originally thought with the frame to add 10-15 more pounds on top of that in the future, then I would reconsider him for the Canucks or any western team and feel better about his durability and drafting him at #6.

Your argument is sound. I appreciate it. As you may know, this thread is 55 pages long and many have argued a whole pile of different views. The Western conference angles is one of the most solid arguments. In my opinion it is the one objection I had to think really hard about , because on the surface it has merit. Completely.

The other was that the QMJHL is a weak league where everyone including Al Secords son could net 50. While it used to be the butt end of many defensive jokes back in the day, its not now. The OHL scores slightly more per game than Quebec and the WHL scores slighly less than them both.

Right away I realized that the generalization about the Conference couldnt hold. In the past Pavel Bure and Markus Naslund had careers that put their names in the rafters. Both the same size as Ehlers. Brendan Morrison also had a solid career while being under 6ft tall.

When they changed the hooking and holding rules, and clamped down on hits , this did nothing but encourage even smaller players from thriving in the league. Now we have a host of them , some of which you named. I would argue a great example is Nathan Mac Kinnon. He is virtually the exact same size as Ehlers and came from the exact same junior program.

But this can also be brushed off as exceptions to the rule. So how defensive is the west ?

Of the top 10 scoring teams in the league, 6 are from the west , including the top 2.

Of the top 10 teams in gaa , the west has 5 , and the east has 5.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSAAALL&sort=avgGoalsPerGame&viewName=summary

So there doesnt seem to be any difference in all when it comes to each conference in terms of style of play. It is what it is. They just play. The styles are individualistic to the talent and the men who coach them.

Last but not least, is the size of each team. Does the west have bigger players than the east?

Here is a list . Feel free to carve it up . The gist I get from it is some teams are bigger and some are smaller but in the end I didnt see the western conference being any bigger than the east. If it is , we are talking 1/10th of an inch and 1.5 pounds per player. Thats how much parity there is in the league.

http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2013/10/2013-14-nhl-teams-by-height-weight-and.html

[Smashian Kassian]

It's certainly not the be all end all and I agree that the structure of the leagues affects how you look at the info.

The real question, in my mind, is not how many points and goals he gets against the lesser teams but how few of them come against top teams. To me this suggest a correlation that he gets shut down a lot against higher quality competition, at least in this one season. As I said in a previous post, it will greatly depend on his next level and how well he can adjust. He is doubtless going to improve upon those numbers next season but can he raise his game enough to equalize those numbers a bit. Only time will tell.

In the past I've looked for a greater balance in scoring against competition as an indicator of whether a prospect can maintain their pace under more difficult circumstances. Ehlers numbers in this regard are quite tilted in the wrong direction. Again, it's not definitive but it is an indicator to me.

Yeah its a valid concern, I'd think there are other prospects where that would apply aswell, but I don't know I just don't think its a huge deal, we will have to see beyond this year to see what happens.