UnkNuk Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Wasn't there an agreement years ago wherein the US guaranteed the security of Saudi Arabia as long as the Saudis agreed to only accept US dollars for oil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 18 minutes ago, UnkNuk said: Wasn't there an agreement years ago wherein the US guaranteed the security of Saudi Arabia as long as the Saudis agreed to only accept US dollars for oil? Oh this is slippery but I'll try to remember The agreement was that the US would supply arm and maintain the Saudi arms and army so long as they played ball. That they'd defend the Saudi crown and UAE so long as they maintained the Petro dollar. This included looking the other way for some things but also kicking the crap out of every neighbor. But. This also included the policing of angry and jealous neighboring nations who had and have as much angst towards the Saudis as they do against Israel. A large part of the US Israeli agreement in unspoken terms was also that Israel would not operate within or interfere with Saudi money or governance. Should the Saudi crown decide that China is now the preferred option this allows for the US to remove defensive measures and arms from the area. It also allows for the US to remove armour and tech on loan to the Saudi government. More importantly it also means the following. China now has to step in and somehow juggle no less than 15 different regional powers that all seem to have a minor hatred for the Saudi crown. That Israel will now effectively have unfettered or unchecked operations in the Saudi region and or UAE And that the US will now no longer be beholden to the Saudis in the UN in various councils losing a very serious power vote that, while China may pick up; means they will be beholden to Chinese interests in ways the US never approached. So in terms of overall regional issues. Saudi deciding that China is now preferable to the US, it means China now has to play puppet master which they're incapable of doing. Saudi loses us protection. China now has to increase military spending by nearly $80 billion a year JUST for Saudi Arabia and that the US is free to use those interests elsewhere This is to the best of my memory 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 26 minutes ago, Warhippy said: Oh this is slippery but I'll try to remember The agreement was that the US would supply arm and maintain the Saudi arms and army so long as they played ball. That they'd defend the Saudi crown and UAE so long as they maintained the Petro dollar. This included looking the other way for some things but also kicking the crap out of every neighbor. But. This also included the policing of angry and jealous neighboring nations who had and have as much angst towards the Saudis as they do against Israel. A large part of the US Israeli agreement in unspoken terms was also that Israel would not operate within or interfere with Saudi money or governance. Should the Saudi crown decide that China is now the preferred option this allows for the US to remove defensive measures and arms from the area. It also allows for the US to remove armour and tech on loan to the Saudi government. More importantly it also means the following. China now has to step in and somehow juggle no less than 15 different regional powers that all seem to have a minor hatred for the Saudi crown. That Israel will now effectively have unfettered or unchecked operations in the Saudi region and or UAE And that the US will now no longer be beholden to the Saudis in the UN in various councils losing a very serious power vote that, while China may pick up; means they will be beholden to Chinese interests in ways the US never approached. So in terms of overall regional issues. Saudi deciding that China is now preferable to the US, it means China now has to play puppet master which they're incapable of doing. Saudi loses us protection. China now has to increase military spending by nearly $80 billion a year JUST for Saudi Arabia and that the US is free to use those interests elsewhere This is to the best of my memory Interesting analysis. I don't know how much truth there is to it but I remember there was a theory that, prior to the Iraq invasion, Saddam was making noises about switching from the American dollar for purchases of oil to some other currency. And it was suggested that this was one of the main reasons for the invasion. Ditto for Gaddafi. If that was true, the Saudi royal family might want to rethink this new strategy. The US might be in a vulnerable financial position in some respects but they are still, by far, the biggest military power in the world. Any attempt to wreck their economy, as suggested in the video posted by @AV's Coin, could be regarded as an act of war. Probably not a smart thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 You know your company is in trouble when you need to cut back on staplers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 9 hours ago, UnkNuk said: But isn't the concern that, if countries don't need to buy US dollars to buy oil, the value of the US dollar will drop? Yes. The less the other countries have to rely on the US dollar as a form of currency the more worthless it becomes. Combine that with the expected $17 trillion dollar increase in the US deficit over the next several years and the usage of the printing press to create that $17 trillion in new money out of thin air, and you are looking at the US dollar becoming as valuable as Tyler Myers and OEL at the trade deadline... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 (edited) 11 hours ago, Warhippy said: Oh this is slippery but I'll try to remember The agreement was that the US would supply arm and maintain the Saudi arms and army so long as they played ball. That they'd defend the Saudi crown and UAE so long as they maintained the Petro dollar. This included looking the other way for some things but also kicking the crap out of every neighbor. But. This also included the policing of angry and jealous neighboring nations who had and have as much angst towards the Saudis as they do against Israel. A large part of the US Israeli agreement in unspoken terms was also that Israel would not operate within or interfere with Saudi money or governance. Should the Saudi crown decide that China is now the preferred option this allows for the US to remove defensive measures and arms from the area. It also allows for the US to remove armour and tech on loan to the Saudi government. More importantly it also means the following. China now has to step in and somehow juggle no less than 15 different regional powers that all seem to have a minor hatred for the Saudi crown. That Israel will now effectively have unfettered or unchecked operations in the Saudi region and or UAE And that the US will now no longer be beholden to the Saudis in the UN in various councils losing a very serious power vote that, while China may pick up; means they will be beholden to Chinese interests in ways the US never approached. So in terms of overall regional issues. Saudi deciding that China is now preferable to the US, it means China now has to play puppet master which they're incapable of doing. Saudi loses us protection. China now has to increase military spending by nearly $80 billion a year JUST for Saudi Arabia and that the US is free to use those interests elsewhere This is to the best of my memory Be careful what you wish for China lol. Edited April 4, 2023 by ronthecivil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 20 hours ago, UnkNuk said: But isn't the concern that, if countries don't need to buy US dollars to buy oil, the value of the US dollar will drop? Bet against the US at your own peril. Not sending money to buy oil to the Saudis to buy oil is a good thing for the states. Letting China take on the mess in the middle east is to China's downfall. Oh, of the US debt, China owns 1 Trillion of if. If you owe the bank 100 dollars, that's your problem. If you owe the bank 100 million dollars, that's the bank's problem. And if the USA owes China a trillion dollars, that's China's problem lol! I would feel confident holding an ETF of the S&P 500. I have no interest in investing in China. They were in danger of having a bigger economy than the US, and then they over reacted to COVID. And when they saw their big companies even look a little threating to the establishments power, they neutered them. Slowly but surely they are revealing themselves as a kleptocracy. Riding a free market is the winning long game. That's what the USA is playing. If China changed the way they do things to be more democratic, they might be a threat. But then they wouldn't be able to do the things that are getting them there. So ya. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 11 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: You know your company is in trouble when you need to cut back on staplers... The bigger danger for google is they take over the world. Short them at your peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, ronthecivil said: The bigger danger for google is they take over the world. Short them at your peril. GOOG 52 week high is $143. Its 52 week low is $83. Shorting GOOG would have given me a 42% return over the last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: GOOG 52 week high is $143. Its 52 week low is $83. Shorting GOOG would have given me a 42% return over the last year. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Trying to time to market is more akin to gambling than investing. I know that adverting and microchips (eg google saying no more laptops for a bit) are cyclical, so there's always a timing risk. But I am quite happy owning the cloud, the programming on 99% of cellphones, and the software running the device your typing on. (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple, Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor). My hold period is forever. And as it turns out, from when I personally bought google, to today, I am +1%. So the roller coaster isn't too crazy for me, and the long term prospects are fanstastic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 (edited) 33 minutes ago, ronthecivil said: Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Trying to time to market is more akin to gambling than investing. I know that adverting and microchips (eg google saying no more laptops for a bit) are cyclical, so there's always a timing risk. But I am quite happy owning the cloud, the programming on 99% of cellphones, and the software running the device your typing on. (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple, Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor). My hold period is forever. And as it turns out, from when I personally bought google, to today, I am +1%. So the roller coaster isn't too crazy for me, and the long term prospects are fanstastic. So you bought a tech stock and you are up only 1% since you bought it? You would have been better off buying a GIC with 0% risk. GOOG doesn’t even offer a dividend. Lots of less riskier stocks out there where you can get a 4-5% dividend guaranteed. Edited April 4, 2023 by Elias Pettersson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said: So you bought a tech stock and you are up only 1% since you bought it? You would have been better off buying a GIC with 0% risk. GOOG doesn’t even offer a dividend. Lots of less riskier stocks out there where you can get a 4-5% dividend guaranteed. It's not my entire portfolio. It's the tech/growth portion. It's there for when growth is winning. I have a boring portion too which has one. And I have an oil and cash portion that has out performed. It's no surprise that tech is down lately and that I am flat. I am just happy owning great companies with a bright future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted April 4, 2023 Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 hours ago, ronthecivil said: Bet against the US at your own peril. Not sending money to buy oil to the Saudis to buy oil is a good thing for the states. Letting China take on the mess in the middle east is to China's downfall. Oh, of the US debt, China owns 1 Trillion of if. If you owe the bank 100 dollars, that's your problem. If you owe the bank 100 million dollars, that's the bank's problem. And if the USA owes China a trillion dollars, that's China's problem lol! I would feel confident holding an ETF of the S&P 500. I have no interest in investing in China. They were in danger of having a bigger economy than the US, and then they over reacted to COVID. And when they saw their big companies even look a little threating to the establishments power, they neutered them. Slowly but surely they are revealing themselves as a kleptocracy. Riding a free market is the winning long game. That's what the USA is playing. If China changed the way they do things to be more democratic, they might be a threat. But then they wouldn't be able to do the things that are getting them there. So ya. The issue comes down to the power of Chinas dollar. It swings so wildly that what is a good deal today is a poor deal tomorrow. That is what the safety of the USD offers nations. Will it take a hit? Yup. But who is really going to suffer here? The Saudi crown still purchases everything in USD so at days end they are currently on a road to short their own buying power while alienating their body guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Apparently TD bank is being super shorted. I am contemplated doubling or tripling up since I am confident it's not going to go belly up. They can just bail on the acquisition that is making everyone crazy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 1 hour ago, ronthecivil said: Apparently TD bank is being super shorted. I am contemplated doubling or tripling up since I am confident it's not going to go belly up. They can just bail on the acquisition that is making everyone crazy.... Practically no one shorts banks. TD has a dividend of 4.67%. When you're short a dividend paying stock you pay the dividend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Practically no one shorts banks. TD has a dividend of 4.67%. When you're short a dividend paying stock you pay the dividend. It was just in the news that people are! Like they can drag down the stock lol! If for some reason there's a danger of a short squeeze, their "competitors" will all go "all in" on TD and force a short squeeze themselves instead of risking contagion that can spread to them too. The people shorting are fools! Hence my thoughts on doubling or tripling up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, ronthecivil said: It was just in the news that people are! Like they can drag down the stock lol! If for some reason there's a danger of a short squeeze, their "competitors" will all go "all in" on TD and force a short squeeze themselves instead of risking contagion that can spread to them too. The people shorting are fools! Hence my thoughts on doubling or tripling up..... The % of float short in TD is under 1%. That's insignificant and certainly not enough to generate a squeeze. There's barely anything to squeeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Arrogant Worms Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 Here's why investors are betting $3.7 billion against Toronto-Dominion, making it the world's most-shorted bank https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/toronto-dominion-short-sellers-banking-crisis-financials-schwab-first-horizon-2023-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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