Warhippy Posted April 5, 2023 Share Posted April 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, The Arrogant Worms said: Here's why investors are betting $3.7 billion against Toronto-Dominion, making it the world's most-shorted bank https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/toronto-dominion-short-sellers-banking-crisis-financials-schwab-first-horizon-2023-4 So they can walk away and actually complete or renegotiate the deal or a new deal for a far better price and this all goes away? Seems like a bunch of people making noise about nothing and if in fact as Nuckin said they are paying the dividend to short the company they will lose possibly more than they'll gain in micro movements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronthecivil Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 19 hours ago, nuckin_futz said: The % of float short in TD is under 1%. That's insignificant and certainly not enough to generate a squeeze. There's barely anything to squeeze. Ya I own shares in TD but I am not scared of the it going to zero is all I am saying. I am cheering the short sellers lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted April 6, 2023 Share Posted April 6, 2023 20 minutes ago, ronthecivil said: Ya I own shares in TD but I am not scared of the it going to zero is all I am saying. I am cheering the short sellers lol. I am already at max allocation on TD. It is a buy IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 7, 2023 Share Posted April 7, 2023 On 4/5/2023 at 10:47 AM, ronthecivil said: Apparently TD bank is being super shorted. I am contemplated doubling or tripling up since I am confident it's not going to go belly up. They can just bail on the acquisition that is making everyone crazy.... I have a large position in TD Bank. Six figures. I use my dividend to buy more of the stock, so I dollar cost average every quarter. I may go in and buy more if it drops below $70. I wouldn't do it now though. I'd wait it out a bit longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 First Republic Bank shares fall more than 40% after volatility pause NYSE halts FRC shares I believe this is a volatility halt initiated by the New York Stock Exchange, not a halt for news pending. Shares of the bank are getting obliterated today, down $7.10, or 44.4%, to $8.90. They closed at $16 yesterday ahead of earnings but deposit outflows were worse than anticipated and it's looking like a zombie bank. I'm not sure if the company thought it could spin its way out of this mess and buy time but the market is saying that it needs a suitor sooner rather than later. The company didn't take any questions from analysts in yesterday's quarterly conference call. "We are pursuing strategic options to expedite our progress while reinforcing our capital position," the company said. Bloomberg reports that the company is looking at up to $100 billion in asset sales and a possible equity raise. Despite this and the risk tone, other regional banks are holding up ok with the KRE regional bank ETF down 3.9%, however it's now beginning to deteriorate and is worth watching carefully on the possibility of further extending the broad rout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: First Republic Bank shares fall more than 40% after volatility pause NYSE halts FRC shares I believe this is a volatility halt initiated by the New York Stock Exchange, not a halt for news pending. Shares of the bank are getting obliterated today, down $7.10, or 44.4%, to $8.90. They closed at $16 yesterday ahead of earnings but deposit outflows were worse than anticipated and it's looking like a zombie bank. I'm not sure if the company thought it could spin its way out of this mess and buy time but the market is saying that it needs a suitor sooner rather than later. The company didn't take any questions from analysts in yesterday's quarterly conference call. "We are pursuing strategic options to expedite our progress while reinforcing our capital position," the company said. Bloomberg reports that the company is looking at up to $100 billion in asset sales and a possible equity raise. Despite this and the risk tone, other regional banks are holding up ok with the KRE regional bank ETF down 3.9%, however it's now beginning to deteriorate and is worth watching carefully on the possibility of further extending the broad rout. Is this the beginning of another serious banking sector shock? Or is this just an FRP one off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Warhippy said: Is this the beginning of another serious banking sector shock? Or is this just an FRP one off? I doubt it unless it affects the big banks it's a blip IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, Warhippy said: Is this the beginning of another serious banking sector shock? Or is this just an FRP one off? There is a serious risk of contagion here. Panic can set in quite quickly when you have a bank that goes under... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 25, 2023 Share Posted April 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 On 4/25/2023 at 1:16 PM, Elias Pettersson said: There is a serious risk of contagion here. Panic can set in quite quickly when you have a bank that goes under... That's what FDIC is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: That's what FDIC is for. The FDIC isn't supposed to be in the business of saving banks that run their business like a cocaine addict on the Vancouver Eastside. If a bank cannot run its business in a proper fashion it should be allowed to die like any other business. Giving banks the freedom to do whatever they want and then bail them out with taxpayers' money when they can't pay their bills is the reason the USA is $30 trillion in debt. At some point, they are going to run out of chairs on the Titanic. I can see these small banks all going under at some point, the FDIC will save the people from losing all of their money and you will have like 4-5 goliath banks left in the market. Same with every other industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 42 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: The FDIC isn't supposed to be in the business of saving banks that run their business like a cocaine addict on the Vancouver Eastside. If a bank cannot run its business in a proper fashion it should be allowed to die like any other business. Giving banks the freedom to do whatever they want and then bail them out with taxpayers' money when they can't pay their bills is the reason the USA is $30 trillion in debt. At some point, they are going to run out of chairs on the Titanic. I can see these small banks all going under at some point, the FDIC will save the people from losing all of their money and you will have like 4-5 goliath banks left in the market. Same with every other industry. SVB was allowed to die. Only depositors were made whole. 5 Goliath banks, like we have in Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: SVB was allowed to die. Only depositors were made whole. 5 Goliath banks, like we have in Canada? Depositors took the risk, why should they get their money back from tax payers' dollars? What about the people who bought shares in the company, did they get their money back? If banks were run like regular companies then none of this nonsense would be allowed to occur. Banks take these huge risks and then the governments need to write cheques on taxpayers' dime to bail them out. Canada has more than just the big 5 banks. They have hundreds of small credit unions that do exactly what banks do. Alot of people I know have never dealt with a bank in their entire lives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 24 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Depositors took the risk, why should they get their money back from tax payers' dollars? What about the people who bought shares in the company, did they get their money back? If banks were run like regular companies then none of this nonsense would be allowed to occur. Banks take these huge risks and then the governments need to write cheques on taxpayers' dime to bail them out. Canada has more than just the big 5 banks. They have hundreds of small credit unions that do exactly what banks do. Alot of people I know have never dealt with a bank in their entire lives... Depositors aren't taking risk, investors/shareholders in the bank take risk and are rewarded with dividends and share price increases. Tax payers do not fund FDIC, it's funded by premiums paid by the banks for the insurance. In the case of SVB they didn't take huge risk they bought US long dated treasuries. US treasuries are the safest investment there is. If they had time to wait it out they wouldn't have lost $1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 23 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Depositors aren't taking risk, investors/shareholders in the bank take risk and are rewarded with dividends and share price increases. Tax payers do not fund FDIC, it's funded by premiums paid by the banks for the insurance. In the case of SVB they didn't take huge risk they bought US long dated treasuries. US treasuries are the safest investment there is. If they had time to wait it out they wouldn't have lost $1. There is a maximum amount that is protected by the FDIC. If that money gets liquidated and spent then who is going to bail out the FDIC? The government of course. At the end of the day, the money will always come from the taxpayers. It's not like the FDIC has $200 billion lying around at any time to give to depositors in case of a bank failure. SVB bought long dated treasuries, that are meant to be held to maturity in order to get the payoff. In an inflationary market, those long-term treasuries aren't going to be worth very much when interest rates rise. As a bank who is holding people's hard-earned money, they should have hedged their bets. It's the same with you and me. Do you put all of your money in equity stocks or do you balance out your portfolio with safer investments? If it's a 30-year timeline then most people just let their portfolios ride out with as much risk as possible. If you need money at some point in the short term, then you need to hedge your bets with safer investments. SVB was a bank that catered to Silicon Valley. They needed to keep funds in short term investments in case these companies needed cash in a moment's notice. They took a huge risk and it backfired on them. They risked their depositor's money on a long-term treasury bet and lost. So, the FDIC had to come in and write a cheque for $200 billion in order to avoid contagion and chaos in the financial markets. I wonder how many more times the FDIC will be able to do this before the government has to print trillions of more money to cover the shortfall from the FDIC accounts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCNeil Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 Grabbing a couple 6J futures. Good entry point tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 (edited) So, I wonder how much it's gonna cost the FDIC to pay out all of the depositors at FRB? According to this website, the FDIC has $125 billion in cash on hand with another $100 billion in the form of a line of credit. However, they insure up to $22 trillion in total assets. They also wrote a cheque for close to $200 billion to save SVB depositors. Question is, where is all this money going to come from to save FRB depositors and all the other banks depositors that are going to follow in its path? My guess is the printing press is going to be quite active this year, it might need some new ink before it is done... I have a feeling alot more people are going to learn about "fractional reserve banking" and how it works before this is all said and done... $22 Trillion in US Banking System Backed by Just $225 Billion at FDIC: Bitcoin Proponent Gabor Gurbacs - The Daily Hodl Edited April 28, 2023 by Elias Pettersson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted April 28, 2023 Share Posted April 28, 2023 The FDIC covers only 1.26% of all deposits in the US. Is it time to panic yet? Remember, they already spent ALL of their money to pay out depositors from ONE bank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted May 2, 2023 Share Posted May 2, 2023 Several more banks on the brink... MCB - Metropolitan Bank - $21.24 today, 52 week high is $94.60 PACW - PacWest Bancorp - $6.55 today, 52 week high is $34.68 WAL - Western Alliance - $30.93 today, 52 week high is $86.87 PACW was $12 a week ago, so it's dropped 50% in the last week. Contagion has set in... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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