When do you think the Vancouver housing bubble will explode and come crashing down ?

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 2016-06-09 at 7:18 PM, Harvey Spector said:

So if inventory levels are at their lowest in 10-15 years and the same buyers keep bidding on the same listings causing mumarket will never correct. Those people are mostly non-professionals who are saying that. All I can tell you right now is based on current inventory levels a market correction, or crash, isn't coming anytime soon. If people like LOLClarskson are waiting for a market crash before they buy into the market then they will be waiting for awhile. 

 

 

This is what Harvey Spector said a few pages ago.

 

He was going on and on about inventory. I said the inventory did not matter.

 

I was right. He was wrong.

[taxi]

21 minutes ago, LolClarkson said:

This is what Harvey Spector said a few pages ago.

 

He was going on and on about inventory. I said the inventory did not matter.

 

I was right. He was wrong.

Of course inventory will be low when unlimited amounts of foreign capital are flooding in....

[Harvey Spector]

That post was made on June 9. At that particular time with the information I had via live real estate data the inventory levels were definitely at their lowest in 15 years so my comment that "based on current inventory levels" the market isn't coming down anytime soon was correct at the time. 

 

Since June 9 inventory levels have changed drastically in terms of single family detached homes. Also since that post Christy Clark has initiated a potentially illegal 15% foreign buyers tax that was not anticipated at the time of my post, which has caused chaos in the market on the detached homes sales and inventory levels. Also because the foreign tax was not grandfathered Christy effectively voided legal and binding contracts, which again no one, not even lawyers in the City, anticipated. That action has caused even more panic and anxiety within the local market. 

 

Having said all that the drop in sales and prices has so far ONLY affected detached homes. The prices of condos and townhomes even in Vancouver went UP last month not down. So this tax has so far only affected the detached home sales and prices in the Metro Vancouver area, or the "tax" zone. Of course there could be a change in the shift of condos and townhomes in the future, but as of right now there is no indication that is happening. 

 

It looks like Mr. Clarkson's sole intent in this thread is to post flow charts from 20 years ago to make his points along with more recent "comedic" portraits of falling knives and pictures of chickens and plates. His other intent is to continually try and discredit other posters including myself on his self served agenda to prove to the world how smart he is and that he was "right" and everyone else was wrong. We are all dumb and so we need to bow down to his intelligence of deciphering flow charts and his knowledge of the real estate market. Apparently his father is a high end real estate investor and multi millionaire so I will bow down to his superiority over me. 

 

As a result I will be stepping away from this thread entirely as it looks like it has reached its end of life cycle and Mr. Clarkson is declared victorious, as the bubble has indeed burst and the  depression and 20% unemployment is just around the corner. 

 

I will be starting my own thread whereby people can discuss the current market and I can also add value by posting current market stats on a monthly basis as well as any other real estate related information that I deem will be helpful to the CDC family. Mr. Clarkson is more than welcome to post in my new thread as long as he behaves himself and actually adds to the conversation. If his sole purpose is only to discredit other posters including myself and post funny pictures and 20 year old flow charts then he can certainly continue to post all of that "relevant" information in this thread, which is his own and he started before I joined this site. 

 

Thank you. 

 

Harvey

[MaxVerstappen33]

3 hours ago, taxi said:

Of course inventory will be low when unlimited amounts of foreign capital are flooding in....

The tax was not the reason why the market is in the situation that it is. There is a reason why I was short on details all this time. Because none of the details really matter in these speculative manias. Its not like there was a tap flowing with forign money and then all of a sudden, the tap was closed and prices dropped.

 

The tax was a symptom of how out of control this bubble was.

[MaxVerstappen33]

I was polite the whole way through this thread. While some people were being flippant and condescending to me. So obviously I am going to have a word with those replies as things transpire.

 

We all know what the temperature of the thread was at the start.

[taxi]

15 hours ago, LolClarkson said:

The tax was not the reason why the market is in the situation that it is. There is a reason why I was short on details all this time. Because none of the details really matter in these speculative manias. Its not like there was a tap flowing with forign money and then all of a sudden, the tap was closed and prices dropped.

 

The tax was a symptom of how out of control this bubble was.

I'd disagree somewhat. There was most definitely a large source of foreign money that has dried up and/or looking elsewhere. The combination of our tax and the Chinese government cracking down on people taking money is a having a huge effect on the market. It's also become very obvious who was buying a lot of the detached homes for absurd prices, and it wasn't locals.

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 2016-09-08 at 6:31 PM, Harvey Spector said:

That post was made on June 9. At that particular time with the information I had via live real estate data the inventory levels we

It looks like Mr. Clarkson's sole intent in this thread is to post flow charts from 20 years ago to make his points along with more recent "comedic" portraits of falling knives and pictures of chickens and plates. His other intent is to continually try and discredit oth

 

Harvey

The charts of other speculative bubbles that I posted and their relation to the speculative bubble in Van houses so far, is proving to be accurate. So how can you  mock the analysis while it is proving to be correct ? I guess you can. But it  is pure sophistry and obfuscation.

 

The analysis guessed right, the next move in prices.

 

 

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 2016-09-09 at 1:56 PM, taxi said:

I'd disagree somewhat. There was most definitely a large source of foreign money that has dried up and/or looking elsewhere. The combination of our tax and the Chinese government cracking down on people taking money is a having a huge effect on the market. It's also become very obvious who was buying a lot of the detached homes for absurd prices, and it wasn't locals.

Then why didn't it happen when this tap was shut off in 2014 ?

 

Did Canada Just Pop Its Housing Bubble? | Zero Hedge

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-12/did-canada-just-pop-its-housing-bubble

Feb 12, 2014 - As the WSJ noted recently, Canada's housing market is the most ... has announced that

 

Via The South China Morning Post,

 

 

Canada’s government has announced that it is scrapping its controversial investor visa scheme, which has allowed waves of rich Hongkongers and mainland Chinese to immigrate since 1986.

 

[taxi]

On 08/09/2016 at 5:58 PM, LolClarkson said:

 

[taxi]

2 hours ago, LolClarkson said:

Then why didn't it happen when this tap was shut off in 2014 ?

 

Did Canada Just Pop Its Housing Bubble? | Zero Hedge

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-12/did-canada-just-pop-its-housing-bubble

Feb 12, 2014 - As the WSJ noted recently, Canada's housing market is the most ... has announced that

 

Via The South China Morning Post,

 

 

Canada’s government has announced that it is scrapping its controversial investor visa scheme, which has allowed waves of rich Hongkongers and mainland Chinese to immigrate since 1986.

 

The bigger issue was obviously non-residents parking their money here. You don't need a visa for that.

[MaxVerstappen33]

34 minutes ago, taxi said:

The bigger issue was obviously non-residents parking their money here. You don't need a visa for that.

Removing a huge financial incentive for really rich Chinese to move to Vancouver has the same effect as this tax. In both cases, they are big disincentives that remove bids from the housing market. Yet prices shot up after 2014.

 

But I am just pointing out that the tax was not the first China specific curve ball thrown at this market. There have been a few.

 

[captainhorvat]

lol at the people that think the housing market will crash

[Naslund]

I am sure oil price and instability around the world have something to do with the recession if it ever happens.  If people wants to be irresponsible and not live within their means than its really their fault.  Its what finance is all about.  I guess its okay to let inflation and consumer debt go up.  It will be interesting if US fed rate go up. 

[DonaldBrashear]

Vancouver housing market is screwed. Going to drop 80% probably get a condo in Vancouver for $150k when it is done.

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 2016-09-11 at 8:50 AM, captainhorvat said:

lol at the people that think the housing market will crash

Lol at people not realizing that its already happening.

[MaxVerstappen33]

On 2016-09-12 at 11:18 AM, Naslund said:

I am sure oil price and instability around the world have something to do with the recession if it ever happens.  If people wants to be irresponsible and not live within their means than its really their fault.  Its what finance is all about.  I guess its okay to let inflation and consumer debt go up.  It will be interesting if US fed rate go up. 

Are you aware that prices have already fallen hard and that sales have dried up ?

 

As Vancouver Luxury Home Sales Plunge 65%, Chinese Buyers Move To Toronto

Zero Hedge‎ - 12 hours ago

If there was any doubt about the Vancouver housing bubble bursting, and there really ...

 

"The Deals Are Collapsing" - Vancouver's Housing Bubble Has Burst ...

www.zerohedge.com/.../deals-are-collapsing-vancouvers-housing-bubble-has-just-bur...

Aug 3, 2016 - As a new dawn breaks in Metro Vancouver's real estate market, realty companies are reporting the first anecdotes of deals falling through as ...

[Realtor Rod]

1 hour ago, LolClarkson said:

Lol at people not realizing that its already happening.

If the market has collapsed and prices are crashing why isnt everyone buying? Seems like a perfect time to buy if prices are so low and the bubble has popped. 

Condos sales went up 196% in Augusr in my area. No one wants to talk about it though. They want to talk about the uber rich neighbourhoods that no one can afford in that has cooled off.

[taxi]

33 minutes ago, Realtor Rod said:

If the market has collapsed and prices are crashing why isnt everyone buying? Seems like a perfect time to buy if prices are so low and the bubble has popped. 

Condos sales went up 196% in Augusr in my area. No one wants to talk about it though. They want to talk about the uber rich neighbourhoods that no one can afford in that has cooled off.

People aren't buying, because:

 

1. Most locals can't afford it. It's now become obvious that many buyers in the past were speculators and foreigners.

 

2. Many people expect prices to drop. They see this as the start of the fall, not the end. Why buy now, when in a couple of months it could be 20+% cheaper. 

[Warhippy]

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/homeandproperty/incomeless-students-spent-dollar57-million-on-vancouver-homes-in-past-two-years/ar-BBwbsbP?li=AAggFp5

 

Nine students with no apparent source of income bought $57-million worth of single-family homes in Vancouver’s tony Point Grey neighbourhood over the past two years, according to records compiled by British Columbia’s Opposition New Democrats.

The NDP said the purchases are more evidence that authorities have let the region’s housing market overheat beyond the reach of most locals.

 

The properties include a $31-million mansion that Canaccord Genuity founder Peter Brown sold earlier this year to a buyer whose occupation was listed on the title document as “student.”

Four of the sales to student buyers were covered by mortgages from three major banks – a fact that underscores how Canada’s banks are inflating the region’s housing market, said NDP housing critic David Eby, who provided data from his provincial riding.

RELATED: Vancouver’s vacancy tax will rely on owners to declare if homes are empty

 

“How did the students qualify for mortgages? Where did that money come from?” Mr. Eby said at a news conference on Wednesday at which he handed out photos of the homes that included the address and the purchase price.

He said this very small sample size of data he has collected offers a snapshot of problems that are likely plaguing the region’s wider housing supply.

 

“If this work were expanded or done in a systematic way by an academic – or a provincial government – it could raise serious questions about the implications of this bank policy of lending to people with no apparent source of income across Metro Vancouver.”

 

Mr. Eby said he obtained the title documents of the nine homes after reading about a Globe and Mail investigation that found Canadian banks allow foreign clients with no credit history, including students, to qualify for uninsured mortgages without verifying the sources of their income. The practice exempts non-Canadians who have money in the bank from the scrutiny domestic borrowers face when buying a home or an investment property.

BMO, CIBC and HSBC provided mortgages to the four students, Mr. Eby said.

 

Late last year, Mr. Eby and Andy Yan, acting director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program, released an analysis of 172 transactions in three expensive Vancouver neighbourhoods during a six-month period ending last year. That study – which ignited controversy for screening buyers for non-anglicized Chinese names – showed almost a third of all occupations listed on titles held by a single owner was homemaker, followed by business people at 18 per cent and students at 6 per cent.

More on MSN Money about Vancouver real estate: Cooling Vancouver home sales cramp average price

Mr. Eby said he had no way of knowing if the nine students whose real estate data he released were foreign speculators because citizenship is not included on land-title documents. But he said The Globe’s investigation “explained the rapid inflation in real estate values over the last two years, where people have functionally accessed almost unlimited capital as long as they have a down payment.”

 

The federal regulator of financial institutions warned the banks this summer that income verification is lacking for non-Canadian clients and urged them to be more thorough.

Jean-Yves Duclos, the federal minister responsible for housing, said on Wednesday that his government is reviewing this and other issues brought up in another Globe investigation on allegations that speculators avoided taxes in Metro Vancouver’s real estate market.

 

“We are clearly concerned by the fact that there may be ways in which Canadians are not being treated equally in having access to the housing market,” Mr. Duclos told reporters in Vancouver.

Mr. Eby said the provincial Liberal government should immediately review all residential transactions across Metro Vancouver over the past two years to identify how widespread these mortgages are and give qualified academics access to land-title and foreign-buyer data so they can identify trends.

B.C. Finance Minister Mike de Jong was unavailable on Wednesday, but an open-data project on foreign investment in local real estate will be released this fall, his spokesman said in an e-mailed statement.

 

He added that the Conference Board of Canada is expected to complete another taxpayer-funded study of Metro Vancouver’s superheated market before the end of the year.

The spokesman said the province’s financial-services regulator is focusing heavily on ensuring that B.C.’s credit unions are verifying that mortgage recipients have enough income to repay their loans. Still, he said, these credit unions “are not significantly involved in foreign buyer financing programs.”

[Realtor Rod]

35 minutes ago, taxi said:

People aren't buying, because:

 

1. Most locals can't afford it. It's now become obvious that many buyers in the past were speculators and foreigners.

 

2. Many people expect prices to drop. They see this as the start of the fall, not the end. Why buy now, when in a couple of months it could be 20+% cheaper. 

Where are you getting the 'they cant afford it' data? If sales were only down 26% from the record August, who is buying those homes? 

 

To your second point, isnt that speculating? Shouldn't the Asian money be selling and pulling out? I wouldnt want to risk my money in a terrible crash. 

 

The reality. Nothing has changed. August was slower than the record august last year. We've gone back to a balanced market and there is more product coming on. None of my buyers are waiting. I haven't heard one of them say it. I am busy again today.