aGENT Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: I completely agree. J.R has troubles understanding what consensus means, When 9 out of 10 scouting reports have Tkachuk ranked as a the 5th best player in the draft, the general agreement is that Tkachuk was the BPA for the canucks. It's the the same thing with the 2014 draft. 9 out of 11 scouting reports had Nylander ranked higher than Jake, so the consensus is that Nylander was more well regarded as a better draft option than Jake Virtanen. Averages of guesses and crystal ball gazing. Now with a heavy dose of hind sighting! You can continue to stick your heads in the sand thinking there's some clear and obvious little box that you can easily and in a linear fashion place individual prospects in if you like. That's simply not reality. Most drafts have wide ranges of VERY similar value players in groups with their own individual merits that different teams will then prioritize them by (position, character, projected size, skating, intelligence etc). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: I completely agree. J.R has troubles understanding what consensus means, When 9 out of 10 scouting reports have Tkachuk ranked as a the 5th best player in the draft, the general agreement is that Tkachuk was the BPA for the canucks. It's the the same thing with the 2014 draft. 9 out of 11 scouting reports had Nylander ranked higher than Jake, so the consensus is that Nylander was more well regarded as a better draft option than Jake Virtanen. the BPA for them was Tkachuk, the BPA for the Canucks was, obviously, Juolevi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Just now, J.R. said: Averages of guesses and crystal ball gazing. Now with a heavy dose of hind sighting! You can continue to stick your heads in the sand thinking there's some clear and obvious little box that you can easily and in a linear fashion place individual prospects in if you like. That's simply not reality. Most drafts have wide ranges of VERY similar value players in groups with their own individual merits that different teams will then prioritize them by (position, character, projected size, skating, intelligence etc). How do you not understand what consensus is? You're smarter than that J.R.. If you poll a group of experts and 9 out of 10 of them say player x is better than y. Can you not agree that the general agreement among experts is that X is the BPA? Just because a team has player Y ranked higher in their own list doesn't mean that's what the "consensus" believes. It doesn't mean it's the wrong move, it just means that player Y wasn't the choice that 90% of the other experts would have chosen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, J.R. said: Averages of guesses and crystal ball gazing. Now with a heavy dose of hind sighting! You can continue to stick your heads in the sand thinking there's some clear and obvious little box that you can easily and in a linear fashion place individual prospects in if you like. That's simply not reality. Most drafts have wide ranges of VERY similar value players in groups with their own individual merits that different teams will then prioritize them by (position, character, projected size, skating, intelligence etc). I think people assume that central scouting, iss, tsn, sportsnet etc are some scouting mecca. In reality, they don't have the resources to send the numbers out the way the teams do and rely on a lot of info sharing rather than direct scouting the way teams do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Just now, ForsbergTheGreat said: How do you not understand what consensus is? You're smarter than that J.R.. If you poll a group of experts and 9 out of 10 of them say player x is better than y. Can you not agree that the general agreement among experts is that X is the BPA? Just because a team has player Y ranked higher in their own list doesn't mean that's what the "consensus" believes. It doesn't mean it's the wrong move, it just means that player Y wasn't the choice that 90% of the other experts would have chosen. How do you not understand the inherent limits of 'consensus' and that it's an extremely over simplified and frankly poor way to even look at draft ranking of something as complex as 18 year old, human, hockey players? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, stawns said: the BPA for them was Tkachuk, the BPA for the Canucks was, obviously, Juolevi. Exactly, it doesn't mean JB made the wrong choice, it just meant that he made a choice that "them" (100% of the scouting world) wouldn't have made. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: Exactly, it doesn't mean JB made the wrong choice, it just meant that he made a choice that "them" (100% of the scouting world) wouldn't have made. That's not even true or provable. One of the main failings of 'consensus' lists is that they specifically try not to take the team in to consideration. In reality that quite simply never happens. Real teams draft players not some abstract 'consensus' algorithm. That's why consensus lists and 'mock' drafts (that take teams in to consideration) are almost always different. It's also why, even though most scouts had Juolevi 1 or 2 spots behind Tkachuck, most plainly stated they wouldn't be surprised to see the Canucks take OJ at 5. And that it would still be a good pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 minute ago, J.R. said: How do you not understand the inherent limits of 'consensus' and that it's an extremely over simplified and frankly poor way to even look at draft ranking of something as complex as 18 year old, human, hockey players? No one is saying consensus is always right.....That doesn't mean that a consensus doesn't exist. Everything is based on probability. This year bobby mac interviews 20 NHL teams to find out who they thought was the BPA as the 1st overall, 10 said Patrick, 10 said Nico. There's a 50% consensus in the NHL world that believe Nico is the best pick and another 50% for Patrick. 50% consensus isn't a high probability. But when 20 of 20 NHL scouts say McDavid is the BPA 2015, you're probability increases. 100% of the NHL scouting world. Well if 4 of the 10 scouting agencies had Juolevi ranked as the 5th BPA and 6 of the 10 had Tkachuk, consensus would have still been Tkachuk as the BPA but there would have been more risk since the probability wouldn't have been as high, but in this case 10 out of 10 scouting agencies had Tkachuk ranked higher than Juolevi. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, J.R. said: That's not even true or provable. One of the main failings of 'consensus' lists is that they specifically try not to take the team in to consideration. In reality that quite simply never happens. Real teams draft players not some abstract 'consensus' algorithm. That's why consensus lists and 'mock' drafts (that take teams in to consideration) are almost always different. It's also why, even though most scouts had Juolevi 1 or 2 spots behind Tkachuck, most plainly stated they wouldn't be surprised to see the Canucks take OJ at 5. And that it would still be a good pick. No it wasnt shocking because consensus isn't a lock and Juolevi wasn't ranked too much lower, consensus is just what other people would have done in the same situation. If 10 of 10 experts say player Y is better than player X. guess what player Y is likely the better choice. It's not rocket science. And that's where this BPA comes into consideration. Take the BPA regardless of team need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 minute ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: No it wasnt shocking because consensus isn't a lock and Juolevi wasn't ranked too much lower, consensus is just what other people would have done in the same situation. If 10 of 10 experts say player Y is better than player X. guess what player Y is likely the better choice. It's not rocket science. And that's where this BPA comes into consideration. Take the BPA regardless of team need. No, it isn't. Consensus is an average of guesses and a bunch of assumptions that specifically take individual team criteria out of the equation and generally skews towards NHL readiness. It's a specifically designed as a generic list, IE: not reality. So a team that's looking a lot more long term (say 3+ years out, like the Canucks) is going to value a player like Tkachuck's closer NHL readiness lower on their list than other factors. If you gave those scouts a detailed outline on team situation/timeline, existing prospect depth/makeup, team priorities on personality, leadership, intelligence etc and ask those same scouts who they might take given that context, I bet a lot would have a different 'consensus'. Again, this is exactly why most mocks vary from 'consensus' lists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: No one is saying consensus is always right.....That doesn't mean that a consensus doesn't exist. Nobody is denying consensus lists don't exist (what a silly remark). Some of us just seem more able to grasp their limits and and context as to why IRL drafts (or mocks) NEVER follow them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: Exactly, it doesn't mean JB made the wrong choice, it just meant that he made a choice that "them" (100% of the scouting world) wouldn't have made. as I've said this "scouting world" you reference doesn't scout as in depth as the teams do, so I would say the teams usually have better info, especially on players in their target range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: No one is saying consensus is always right.....That doesn't mean that a consensus doesn't exist. Everything is based on probability. This year bobby mac interviews 20 NHL teams to find out who they thought was the BPA as the 1st overall, 10 said Patrick, 10 said Nico. There's a 50% consensus in the NHL world that believe Nico is the best pick and another 50% for Patrick. 50% consensus isn't a high probability. But when 20 of 20 NHL scouts say McDavid is the BPA 2015, you're probability increases. 100% of the NHL scouting world. Well if 4 of the 10 scouting agencies had Juolevi ranked as the 5th BPA and 6 of the 10 had Tkachuk, consensus would have still been Tkachuk as the BPA but there would have been more risk since the probability wouldn't have been as high, but in this case 10 out of 10 scouting agencies had Tkachuk ranked higher than Juolevi. as was recently pointed out in an article, Bobby mac claimed Yakupov was a slam dunk, can't miss NHL impact player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R3aL Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 2 hours ago, missioncanucksfan said: Timmins would be great but he will surely be gone by 33. Max Gildon is one to watch out for as he is 6'3 190 lbs, has done supurb job for USNDTP all year and was really involved in driving the offense for USA at the U18. Central scouting had him around #54 Dylan Samberg played for Waterloo with Shane Bowers and like Gildon is also the same size. He might be a good consideration for 3rd rnd Scott Reedy has size, hands and could be a more physical version of Boeser or more like Christian Fischer or JT Miller. 6'1 200lbs, he could very well sneak an inch plus 5 lbs. Committed to U of Minnesota he will be a teammate and possible linemate of Mittlestadt Mismash committed to North Dakota is an abrasive center that seems to bag timely goals. Most likely has an ability to score a game winner while seriously pissing the opposition off With Tryamkin gone, Tanev likely to be traded, 2 prospects Neill and Olsen not being signed, it's safe to say that D is a major area we need to draft as well as playmaking centers. I hope not - hes perfect for the new NHL in the sense he gets the puck out of trouble and up to the forwards really quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R3aL Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 minute ago, stawns said: as was recently pointed out in an article, Bobby mac claimed Yakupov was a slam dunk, can't miss NHL impact player. well he certainly has made an impact 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rollieo Del Fuego Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 ...cdc...cant' even come to a consensus on what's a consensus.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R3aL Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rollieo Del Fuego said: ...cdc...cant' even come to a consensus on what's a consensus.... Can we ever?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmahyoung Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 I expect the following: 3rd: Mittlestadt 4th: Vilardi 5th: Liljegren We'll end up with and excellent PP Defenceman, the best in the draft. Could have rivaled Nolan Patrick this year, if he was healthy. These guys don't grow on trees. Some complaints will float around, but great defense is what championship teams are built around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier's_elbow Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, jmahyoung said: I expect the following: 3rd: Mittlestadt 4th: Vilardi 5th: Liljegren We'll end up with and excellent PP Defenceman, the best in the draft. Could have rivaled Nolan Patrick this year, if he was healthy. These guys don't grow on trees. Some complaints will float around, but great defense is what championship teams are built around. I rather have Heiskanen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, stawns said: as was recently pointed out in an article, Bobby mac claimed Yakupov was a slam dunk, can't miss NHL impact player. What does that have to do with anything? No one is saying that the consensus is always right and it never wrong..... That doesn't mean that a consensus doesn't exist and that the consensus of NHL scouts believed Tkachuk was the BPA at #5.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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