[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[BPA]

55 minutes ago, SilentSam said:

I like what @Me_ has suggested, 8.5mx 5 yr. (42.5m)

Id Also think 7m x 6yr (42. m)

might work too, leaving the player optional trade lists in yrs 4, 5 & 6 at his request in year 4, the teams and his request in 5 & 6.

If he isn’t winning a cup here by then, he should be able to pursue his dream elsewhere.

To have JT Miller as a leader or Captain on this Canuck Team for 4 years minimum, will place the right hockey mindset into the younger players he is with, and a go to guy for vets, Coaches and staff alike.

He handles every situation well.… and that’s without considering his ppg average getting better, consistent, or worse.

 

Injuries , long or short term occur to anybody, don’t accept that argument in the “declining asset” analytics.

30 is not old lmao!

He looks after himself, he wouldn’t play like that if he didn’t.

 

 

1 hour ago, Me_ said:

I think he does 8.5 x 5

If that is what he will sign … then JR/PA will likely be hailed as GM of the year.  Good cap hit and good term.  Sounds like wishful thinking to be honest.

 

BUT…it’s most likely Miller last big payday.  With the way he is playing, I can’t see him getting paid less than $9M aav.  And the term will be 6-8yrs.

[wai_lai416]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

He's probably worth $11M to $12M AAV... so yeah, if he signs for say $10.5M AAV, then I'll give it to ya that he took a discount

10.5 for him? That's a bargain lol less than Tavares mcdavid marner matthews.. easily the most complete hardest competitor out of the bunch. And 10.5 at the current salary cap compared to when they were signed?

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, wai_lai416 said:

10.5 for him? That's a bargain lol less than Tavares mcdavid marner matthews.. easily the most complete hardest competitor out of the bunch. And 10.5 at the current salary cap compared to when they were signed?

We'll say $10.5M in today's dollars.  McDavid is at $12.5M, Matthews at $11.6M.

[wai_lai416]

Just now, HKSR said:

We'll say $10.5M in today's dollars.  McDavid is at $12.5M, Matthews at $11.6M.

Even then mcdavid signed when cap eas 79.5 by the time mackinnin signs it'll prolly be around 84.5 mcdavid matthews easily would be over 14 and 13 respectively. If mackinnkn signs for 10.5 it's a massive steal .. that's like the difference of a 3rd line center or a fringe ahler

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

Even then mcdavid signed when cap eas 79.5 by the time mackinnin signs it'll prolly be around 84.5 mcdavid matthews easily would be over 14 and 13 respectively. If mackinnkn signs for 10.5 it's a massive steal .. that's like the difference of a 3rd line center or a fringe ahler

I get that, I'm just saying let's wait and see if he signs for something like that.  $10.5M would have him as the 8th highest paid player in the entire league as of today.  He should probably be Top 5, so being paid Top 8 would mean he took a discount.

[RWJC]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

You know I'm ALL for re-signing Miller, but realistically though, I just can't see him signing for less than 8 years with us (7 years as UFA).

What would be his incentive to do so?

Exactly, there has to be a balance between both parties that is equitable. 
Miller has stated that he’s only looking at next season to even consider contract values. So, a lot of what will likely determine that is how we close out this season/playoffs , the moves made in the offseason, and if PAJR view Miller as an integral piece/leader going forward and if they take into consideration/consultation with JTM about how to potentially retool this team.

 

if I was JTM, and management was willing to go to certain lengths to accommodate me, I would look at signing the max length contract but make it a team friendly structured deal. I think if we offer 7 or 8 years at 9-9.5 with incentivizing bonuses we have him locked. That’s slightly below market value for a player as important to a franchise as he is.
 

If I’m JTM (and his agent) the major aspects I consider in this are:

 

if I sign elsewhere, do I become a 2nd tier part of their established leadership core? Do I maintain top line minutes? Will I be the face of that franchise? Who are my potential linemates and will there be chemistry there? What is the longterm outlook for being competitive?

 

As much as we don’t talk about it, ego plays a major part in what drives JTM.

This franchise enabled him to become the player he is. He was a middling forward before the responsibility given to him here. Now, he effectively, under Bruce, has the keys to the franchise. 

For a player like JTM, i would like to believe that holds incredible value. He was given the opportunity and turned himself into a made man with THIS franchise. It’s pride, confidence, fire and a certain desire to prove himself that has gotten him this far, under a previous coaching system that in essence, was flawed in that it’s inherent design held a player like him back.

 

Speaking of back, he has a coach who is fully supportive of him and deemed him the real leader.

 

I think with all the pieces in place, and if loyalty is a driver for JTM, the next step would be to get paid, but equally to take this franchise on his back and turn it into a real contender. 
 

we will have to pay almost top dollar for that, but something can invariably be structured to achieve it.

 

he’s going to get 7 years and top dollar elsewhere.  it might as well be here, given the trajectory of this team.

Edited March 11, 2022 by RWJC

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, RWJC said:

Exactly, there has to be a balance between both parties that is equitable. 
Miller has stated that he’s only looking at next season to even consider contract values. So, a lot of what will likely determine that is how we close out this season/playoffs , the moves made in the offseason, and if PAJR view Miller as an integral piece/leader going forward and if they take into his consideration/consultation with JTM about how to potentially retool this team.

 

if I was JTM, and management was willing to go to certain lengths to accommodate me, I would look at signing the max length contract but make it a team friendly structured deal. I think if we offer 7 years at 8.75 - 9.25 we have him locked. That’s slightly below market value for a player as important to a franchise as he is.
 

If I’m JTM (and his agent) the major aspects I consider in this are:

 

if I sign elsewhere, do I become a 2nd tier part of their established leadership core? Do I maintain top line minutes? Will I be the face of that franchise? Who are my potential linemates and will there be chemistry there? What is the longterm outlook for being competitive?

 

As much as we don’t talk about it, ego plays a major part in what drives JTM.

This franchise enabled him to become the player he is. He was a middling forward before the responsibility given to him here. Now, he effectively, under Bruce, has the keys to the franchise. 

For a player like JTM, i would like to believe that holds incredible value. He was given the opportunity and turned himself into a made man with THIS franchise. It’s pride, confidence, fire and a certain desire to prove himself that has gotten him this far, under a previous coaching system that in essence, was flawed in that it’s inherent design held a player like him back.

 

Speaking of back, he has a coach who is fully supportive of him and deemed him the real leader.

 

I think with all the pieces in place, and if loyalty is a driver for JTM, the next step in his kind would be to get paid, but equally to take this franchise on his back and turn it into a contender. 
 

we will have to pay almost top dollar for that, but something can invariably be structured to achieve it.

 

he’s going to get 7 years and top dollar elsewhere.  it might as well be here, given the trajectory of this team.

Yeah, you bring up excellent points.

 

I think if this Canucks team keeps rolling at .700 hockey and actually makes the playoffs, all bets are off on what JT Miller will want.  I could THEN see him taking a slight discount to stay.  All that needs to happen is a sign that this team is heading in the right direction and that it is close.  Close enough that in JT Miller's prime, he could be one of the main contributors.

[T.Demko]

26 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I guess this goes back to how JT Miller has said he loves it here, his family loves it here, but people seem to think that means he wants to leave because "what else is he supposed to say?" ... we won't know until it happens.  I personally don't think Mackinnon is gonna take much of a discount.  He didn't the first time around.

I don't think anyone is advocating he wants to leave.  We're simply stating this has been said and done before, and players have left.  Hockey players are professionals, well most... and they handle the situations professionally, until the situation isn't.  We shouldn't put any emphasis into it, unless there are more concrete evidence suggesting the player has good reasons to stay, and even then, we are simply putting a higher probability on one outcome than the other.  As Management, they should still assess both situations and plan accordingly.

[BPA]

So Miller is in the top 10…

 

Some salary (aav) comparison for the players near his point totals so far…

 

Ovi = $9.5M

Rantanen = $9.25M

Kadri = $4.5M but is UFA next year at 31yr old

Tkachuk = $7M but is RFA next year

Conner = $7.14M

Makar = $9M

Kane = $10.5M

 

 

 

 

[T.Demko]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah, you bring up excellent points.

 

I think if this Canucks team keeps rolling at .700 hockey and actually makes the playoffs, all bets are off on what JT Miller will want.  I could THEN see him taking a slight discount to stay.  All that needs to happen is a sign that this team is heading in the right direction and that it is close.  Close enough that in JT Miller's prime, he could be one of the main contributors.

Double edge sword, which also could bring the worst outcome.  

 

Team is comfortably in a playoff spot next trade deadline, Miller still does not have any contract.  Now we're in a position to gamble.  If we don't win it all next year, which there is an extremely low chance barring any major change this summer, we now face losing Miller in Free Agency with nothing to show for... for few playoff games.

 

Once again, it is all speculations until it happens, and I mean for both side of the arguments a la "Keep Miller" / "Trade Miller".  However, I don't see much reason for Miller to give the Canucks any discount over what he could get in the open market.  I've stated this before, but this is Miller's first and last money contract.  He will want to see what the open market has for him, and once he is there, it really does not favor us.  With the way he is playing, all signs indicate he is going to get paid big, and with hefty terms which he will want.

[HKSR]

5 minutes ago, T.Demko said:

Double edge sword, which also could bring the worst outcome.  

 

Team is comfortably in a playoff spot next trade deadline, Miller still does not have any contract.  Now we're in a position to gamble.  If we don't win it all next year, which there is an extremely low chance barring any major change this summer, we now face losing Miller in Free Agency with nothing to show for... for few playoff games.

 

Once again, it is all speculations until it happens, and I mean for both side of the arguments a la "Keep Miller" / "Trade Miller".  However, I don't see much reason for Miller to give the Canucks any discount over what he could get in the open market.  I've stated this before, but this is Miller's first and last money contract.  He will want to see what the open market has for him, and once he is there, it really does not favor us.  With the way he is playing, all signs indicate he is going to get paid big, and with hefty terms which he will want.

Oh I was referring to this year.  If the Canucks make the playoffs this year, and who knows, maybe do some damage, it would surely have an impact on JT Miller's mind going into the offseason.

[RWJC]

8 minutes ago, T.Demko said:

Double edge sword, which also could bring the worst outcome.  

 

Team is comfortably in a playoff spot next trade deadline, Miller still does not have any contract.  Now we're in a position to gamble.  If we don't win it all next year, which there is an extremely low chance barring any major change this summer, we now face losing Miller in Free Agency with nothing to show for... for few playoff games.

 

Once again, it is all speculations until it happens, and I mean for both side of the arguments a la "Keep Miller" / "Trade Miller".  However, I don't see much reason for Miller to give the Canucks any discount over what he could get in the open market.  I've stated this before, but this is Miller's first and last money contract.  He will want to see what the open market has for him, and once he is there, it really does not favor us.  With the way he is playing, all signs indicate he is going to get paid big, and with hefty terms which he will want.

True. Not to mention playing in a voracious hockey market with ruthless media. On the flip side of that, he seems to be ingesting all of that and outperforming expectation.

THRIVING on it.

 

it really is a gamble/tough decision.

Considering he’s under contract until the end of next season, I really hope we try one last push and bring in assets by the deadline to give this group a last chance to prove what they have and if we can not only make the playoffs, but really make some noise in them too. We’re going to need more depth, especially on D though, to do that.

 

to me, that’s the only way to offset what is a difficult position for management. It’s working, run with it, even try the hail mary this season if it doesn’t set us back too far. 
 

also gives even more time to assess Bo and Boes’ values down the stretch.
 

we don’t need to do a damn thing until the offseason, so carpe diem!

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by RWJC

[Fanuck]

People should take a look at this list and then try to argue that Miller won't be asking for at least what the average of the top 20 guys are making (which is approximately 10mil/season average), when he's outperforming most of these guys and far more valuable to his team than at least half of them:

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active

 

The thought that he'd sign here for anything less than 9.5-10mil aav is comical. 

[T.Demko]

8 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Oh I was referring to this year.  If the Canucks make the playoffs this year, and who knows, maybe do some damage, it would surely have an impact on JT Miller's mind going into the offseason.

Ok!  Well let's play a hypothetical game.  

 

Let's say we make the playoffs and make some noise.  Miller is more inclined to sign with the team, but I still don't think he gives us a discount.  I think at that point, it just means he is willing to sign an extension in the upcoming off-season, without testing the UFA market, at what he believes would be a fair market value next year.  Even that would provide the Canucks a big advantage knowing they can plan out the 2022-2023 season.  

 

Now, at what point do we say it is too much for Miller?  I believe even if he gives us a sweat deal, we're still looking at minimum something like 9.25M x 7 with NMC, knowing full well he could fetch around double digits in an open market with similar terms.  

Edited March 11, 2022 by T.Demko

[RWJC]

6 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

People should take a look at this list and then try to argue that Miller won't be asking for at least what the average of the top 20 guys are making (which is approximately 10mil/season average), when he's outperforming most of these guys and far more valuable to his team than at least half of them:

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active

 

The thought that he'd sign here for anything less than 9.5-10mil aav is comical. 

That AAV can come down when you devise a creative contract, catered to the player.

Edited March 11, 2022 by RWJC

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, T.Demko said:

Ok!  Well let's play a hypothetical game.  

 

Let's say we make the playoffs and make some noise.  Miller is more inclined to sign with the team, but I still don't think he gives us a discount.  I think at that point, it just means he is willing to sign an extension in the upcoming off-season, without testing the UFA market, at what he believes would be a fair market value next year.  Even that would provide the Canucks a big advantage knowing they can plan out the 2022-2023 season.  

 

Now, at what point do we say it is too much for Miller?  I believe even if he gives us a sweat deal, we're still looking at something like 9.25M x 7 with NM, knowing full well he could fetch around double digits in an open market with similar terms.  

Sure...

 

$9.5 x 7 on the open market = $66.5M total

$9 x 8 with the Canucks = $72M total ($5.5M more, and 1 extra year of security)

 

Which one would you take?

 

PS - Even $8.75 x 8 = $70M.  The key is that the Canucks can offer an 8 year deal.  Other teams can't.

[RWJC]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

Sure...

 

$9.5 x 7 on the open market = $66.5M total

$9 x 8 with the Canucks = $72M total ($5.5M more, and 1 extra year of security)

 

Which one would you take?

 

PS - Even $8.75 x 8 = $70M.  The key is that the Canucks can offer an 8 year deal.  Other teams can't.

This. 
an extra year hovering around top dollar is a major incentive.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by RWJC

[T.Demko]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Sure...

 

$9.5 x 7 on the open market = $66.5M total

$9 x 8 with the Canucks = $72M total ($5.5M more, and 1 extra year of security)

 

Which one would you take?

 

PS - Even $8.75 x 8 = $70M.  The key is that the Canucks can offer an 8 year deal.  Other teams can't.

Sure. Once again, I'm not trying to judge you based on your numbers, or anyone's for that matter.  It is just an opinion after all.  

So for you, Miller is worth 9M of cap until 37, and you would happily provide him that.  I say 9.5 x 7 probably would be the better choice for us given that scenario if Miller provided us the freedom to choose, but I digress.  

 

At least you agree he won't be coming at anything below 9 Million, and especially not with the 5-6 years terms people are suggesting.  In that case, it just becomes a matter of what everyone's comfort zone is with Miller's cap hit and terms, because some will start arguing they'd rather not have Miller at that price tag for that many years and that is the question we should really be discussing. 

[T.Demko]

15 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

People should take a look at this list and then try to argue that Miller won't be asking for at least what the average of the top 20 guys are making (which is approximately 10mil/season average), when he's outperforming most of these guys and far more valuable to his team than at least half of them:

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active

 

The thought that he'd sign here for anything less than 9.5-10mil aav is comical. 

People love to have their cake and eat it too.  

 

I've been reading the CDC board for a while, and that is the re-occurring theme as people care too much to be 'right' on this board.  

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, T.Demko said:

Sure. Once again, I'm not trying to judge you based on your numbers, or anyone's for that matter.  It is just an opinion after all.  

So for you, Miller is worth 9M of cap until 37, and you would happily provide him that.  I say 9.5 x 7 probably would be the better choice for us given that scenario if Miller provided us the freedom to choose, but I digress.  

 

At least you agree he won't be coming at anything below 9 Million, and especially not with the 5-6 years terms people are suggesting.  In that case, it just becomes a matter of what everyone's comfort zone is with Miller's cap hit and terms, because some will start arguing they'd rather not have Miller at that price tag for that many years and that is the question we should really be discussing. 

I'm ok with Miller at $9M AAV for 8 years.  By 2031, the cap will be around $108 to $110M (based on historically going up 4% per year assuming escrow will be taken care of by 2025).  $9M in 2031 would be the equivalent of $6.75M in today's cap world.