Alflives Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Mustard Tiger said: 5 point game lol. Soo many great options at the top of this draft... IF we can pick top five I think we get this guy or Carlsson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOnHockey Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Mustard Tiger said: 5 point game lol. Soo many great options at the top of this draft... If one were to exclude his 3 game pointless stint with SKA from the start of the season, then he's currently sitting as the best ever p/g by a U19 in the KHL. As it stands, including those 3 games, he is still the best ever p/g by a first year draft-eligible player, even if technically he's been 18 for most of the season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.I.A.H.N Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said: The funny thing is I think you're 100% right. I've been thinking the same thing all year, and yet I rack my brain trying to figure out who are the D that ought to go top ten and I just can't see an obvious answer. There's a lot of talk about Reinbacher lately, but is that the right guy? I dunno. Could it be Willander? Could it be Minnetian? Could it be Caden Price? Good chance the best defenseman in the draft ends up going late first or second round. The trick is, if you're going to pick a defenseman in the top ten, try to pick the right one. Yeah, as I was counting Dmen in the top ten of each year, I noticed that earilier, there had been a exaggerated amount of flops. LOL, we with Juolevi contributed to that. But in the end, I think the 3 I mentioned earlier, will be the 3 that push the hardest for the top 10. They may be 9, 10, and 11, for all we know, but I think the trick is to wait and see how the final reports and rankings look. Who knows? Maybe this is the year that there are no Dmen in the final 10? I doubt it though. I have noticed that in the past 10 years, there less and less flops, because of the trend to get away from the eye test, exclusively. Analytics, are starting to take some of the error out of the rankings, and it is becoming more of a science? More eyes as well. What do you think of that? PS....one last thought, maybe the delay on the top defensemen is that are mostly European, this year....causing a greater need to see them longe, before making that final move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOnHockey Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 19 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said: Yeah, as I was counting Dmen in the top ten of each year, I noticed that earilier, there had been a exaggerated amount of flops. LOL, we with Juolevi contributed to that. But in the end, I think the 3 I mentioned earlier, will be the 3 that push the hardest for the top 10. They may be 9, 10, and 11, for all we know, but I think the trick is to wait and see how the final reports and rankings look. See but this is where we differ. For me the trick is to try to figure it out for myself. I wasn't really posting on this forum yet, but in 2019/'20 it was the same conundrum early in the year. Everyone "knew" Drysdale would be first off the board, but nobody had a clue who might go next. I set out early to solve the puzzle. And the two I singled out by December of 2019 were Jake Sanderson and Shakir Mukhamadullin. I've been trying to do the same thing all this year, but I'm at a bit of a loss. Gulyayev is by far and away the best defenseman right now. But at 5'10, is he going to be the best NHL defenseman from the draft at 25? ASP is a bit of a poor man's Gulyayev (except non-Russian). Simashev right now looks kinda meh, but at 6'5 what might he be down the road? Reinbacher looks fine but rather unexciting. Dragicevic and Minnetian have massive offensive potential, but can they put it together on the defensive side? Willander and Price are good two-way D with NHL frames, but do they have the offensive upside to be worth an early pick? 19 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said: Who knows? Maybe this is the year that there are no Dmen in the final 10? I doubt it though. I have noticed that in the past 10 years, there less and less flops, because of the trend to get away from the eye test, exclusively. Analytics, are starting to take some of the error out of the rankings, and it is becoming more of a science? More eyes as well. What do you think of that? PS....one last thought, maybe the delay on the top defensemen is that are mostly European, this year....causing a greater need to see them longe, before making that final move? Yeah there does seem to be fewer really bad flops in about the past decade and a half than there had been previous. Lots of video, and yes, lots of data. But as with any science there needs to be a philosophy behind it to guide us how to interpret the data. As I mentioned the other day, data can only tell us what a player is doing at their current level of play. The art of scouting is in trying to predict how they'll adapt to higher levels (and specifically the NHL level). This is why someone like Scouch is not very good and yet still very useful. He posts the videos with the data, and he's not good at interpreting the data, but someone watching that with a better understanding of the context could gain valuable insight. On your last point, I don't think it's about a greater need to see them longer, but unless you're a team like Detroit or Columbus with heavy European scouting presence, the bulk of your scouts are concentrated in N.A., your head scouts are based out of N.A. The head scouts will hear about the European prospects from their guys over there, but they'll only go see them how many times a year? I'd be curious to know how many, if any of Bob McKenzie's scouts surveyed are European-based. Assuming they're mostly out of N.A. that would definitely factor a bias into the rankings which will be forced to be corrected later in the season as better information is more widely dispersed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said: The funny thing is I think you're 100% right. I've been thinking the same thing all year, and yet I rack my brain trying to figure out who are the D that ought to go top ten and I just can't see an obvious answer. There's a lot of talk about Reinbacher lately, but is that the right guy? I dunno. Could it be Willander? Could it be Minnetian? Could it be Caden Price? Good chance the best defenseman in the draft ends up going late first or second round. The trick is, if you're going to pick a defenseman in the top ten, try to pick the right one. IMO (RD) Sandin Pellikka is the best D in the Draft and will go Top 10. Kind of a toss-up who would be 2nd best (my guess): (RD) Reinbacher (LD) Simashev (LD) Gulyeyev (RD) Allen (RD) Bonk (LD) Price Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van40 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Caden Price has is really interesting. Size and skating ability with offensive flare for a Dman is always welcomed. Need to prioritize finding another top dman to compliment Hughes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.I.A.H.N Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said: See but this is where we differ. For me the trick is to try to figure it out for myself. I wasn't really posting on this forum yet, but in 2019/'20 it was the same conundrum early in the year. Everyone "knew" Drysdale would be first off the board, but nobody had a clue who might go next. I set out early to solve the puzzle. And the two I singled out by December of 2019 were Jake Sanderson and Shakir Mukhamadullin. I've been trying to do the same thing all this year, but I'm at a bit of a loss. Gulyayev is by far and away the best defenseman right now. But at 5'10, is he going to be the best NHL defenseman from the draft at 25? ASP is a bit of a poor man's Gulyayev (except non-Russian). Simashev right now looks kinda meh, but at 6'5 what might he be down the road? Reinbacher looks fine but rather unexciting. Dragicevic and Minnetian have massive offensive potential, but can they put it together on the defensive side? Willander and Price are good two-way D with NHL frames, but do they have the offensive upside to be worth an early pick? Yeah there does seem to be fewer really bad flops in about the past decade and a half than there had been previous. Lots of video, and yes, lots of data. But as with any science there needs to be a philosophy behind it to guide us how to interpret the data. As I mentioned the other day, data can only tell us what a player is doing at their current level of play. The art of scouting is in trying to predict how they'll adapt to higher levels (and specifically the NHL level). This is why someone like Scouch is not very good and yet still very useful. He posts the videos with the data, and he's not good at interpreting the data, but someone watching that with a better understanding of the context could gain valuable insight. On your last point, I don't think it's about a greater need to see them longer, but unless you're a team like Detroit or Columbus with heavy European scouting presence, the bulk of your scouts are concentrated in N.A., your head scouts are based out of N.A. The head scouts will hear about the European prospects from their guys over there, but they'll only go see them how many times a year? I'd be curious to know how many, if any of Bob McKenzie's scouts surveyed are European-based. Assuming they're mostly out of N.A. that would definitely factor a bias into the rankings which will be forced to be corrected later in the season as better information is more widely dispersed. And this is why I love this thread. people like yourself, and others that dig into much deeper than I. The insight I get from you guys, causes me to dig deeper, and get a better understanding. It is my favorite thread. I am admittedly a parrot in this thread, because, I do not watch tape like yourself. But I do read alot. I am more a builder, and I feel pretty confident on what is needed on a team. It is why I am so excited about the Canucks, they honestly just need to fill holes. (Important holes), but it is not our young players that pose the problem, it is the way they were build, and how premature Benning was in trying to finish. Far too impatient. But, live in the here and now..................we need to hit home runs in this draft. I do believe in BPA, but that is very subjective, which is proven every draft, as every team has their own list. My interest is not in being right on the draft, but looking at players that fit "My narrative". I believe very strongly in tiers, and again, BPA is soft within those tiers, which gives you the ability to reach within a tier. I also, do not believe in the adage of draft the BPA, because you can then trade him for what you need. That happens so rarely, if at all. And if a prospect is worth his salt, the team that has him, just will not give him up........case in point, where NYRangers, would just not give up Schneider in trade for Miller...........so an unproven prospect can not get a 100 point player....lol. But that is how cemented in these teams get. So, please never take what I say as questioning you, but more questioning myself, and trying to establish if my belief is solid, or if it is shaky. Like I say, I just love this forum. I also like to question you guys to see how solid you are on your opinions. It has made me question myself more than once. With the sincerest Thanks. JIAHN (Paul) Thanks to all the posters here! Really informative! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighOnHockey Posted February 26, 2023 Author Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said: And this is why I love this thread. people like yourself, and others that dig into much deeper than I. The insight I get from you guys, causes me to dig deeper, and get a better understanding. It is my favorite thread. I am admittedly a parrot in this thread, because, I do not watch tape like yourself. But I do read alot. I am more a builder, and I feel pretty confident on what is needed on a team. It is why I am so excited about the Canucks, they honestly just need to fill holes. (Important holes), but it is not our young players that pose the problem, it is the way they were build, and how premature Benning was in trying to finish. Far too impatient. But, live in the here and now..................we need to hit home runs in this draft. I do believe in BPA, but that is very subjective, which is proven every draft, as every team has their own list. My interest is not in being right on the draft, but looking at players that fit "My narrative". I believe very strongly in tiers, and again, BPA is soft within those tiers, which gives you the ability to reach within a tier. I also, do not believe in the adage of draft the BPA, because you can then trade him for what you need. That happens so rarely, if at all. And if a prospect is worth his salt, the team that has him, just will not give him up........case in point, where NYRangers, would just not give up Schneider in trade for Miller...........so an unproven prospect can not get a 100 point player....lol. But that is how cemented in these teams get. So, please never take what I say as questioning you, but more questioning myself, and trying to establish if my belief is solid, or if it is shaky. Like I say, I just love this forum. I also like to question you guys to see how solid you are on your opinions. It has made me question myself more than once. With the sincerest Thanks. JIAHN (Paul) Thanks to all the posters here! Really informative! What are you even talking about here? This happens all time. Think about L.A. leveraging their prospect pool to fill their need at center, trading Brayden Schenn and others for Mike Richards and Jeff Carter. St. Louis did the same prior to their Cup, trading top prospect Tage Thompson plus one of their own formerly drafted players in Patrick Berglund plus for Ryan O'Reilly. In 2006 Anaheim needed a stud defenseman and Brian Burke used two of their top prospects Joffrey Lupul and Ladislav Smid to acquire Chris Pronger. Colorado traded their own drafted Adam Deadmarsh to L.A. for Rob Blake. Much later they traded their own drafted Matt Duchene for Samuel Girard. Tampa Bay traded Drouin for Sergachev (don't ask how that happened). I could do this all day, but there's just a few prominent examples that helped teams win Cups. Edited February 26, 2023 by HighOnHockey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 (edited) Looking at 24 years old and under in the system and the three early picks that could benefit the Canucks most - assuming the Canucks don't get into the Top 5. (1) BENSON/SALE - Pettersson - Lekkerimaki Podkolzin - Raty - Kravtsov Hoglander* - Aman - Karlsson ? - Studnicka - Klimovich Hughes - (1b) REINBACHER/SANDIN-PELLIKKA Stillman - (2) BONK/DRAGICEVIC Rathbone* - Woo Pettersson - Johansson Jurmo - ? Silovs * could be traded soon Edited February 26, 2023 by NUCKER67 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pure961089 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I hope a team like Arizona goes off the board again and picks a guy like Barlow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pure961089 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, NUCKER67 said: Looking at 24 years old and under in the system and the three early picks that could benefit the Canucks most - assuming the Canucks don't get into the Top 5. (1) BENSON/SALE - Pettersson - Lekkerimaki Podkolzin - Raty - Kravtsov Hoglander* - Aman - Karlsson ? - Studnicka - Klimovich Hughes - (1b) REINBACHER/SANDIN-PELLIKKA Stillman - (2) BONK/DRAGICEVIC Rathbone* - Woo Pettersson - Johansson Jurmo - ? Silovs * could be traded soon I’m not sold on Sale, but Benson, Smith and Cristall I have 5,6,7. And Lekkerimaki is having a terrible year. I’d try to bring him over asap before his confidence is completely ruined. And people are all stuck on position, must be a centre or a RHD but I think the #1 goal of this team is to get more elite talent regardless of position. We can always trade wingers for positional need and there are a lot of really good 2 way coachable centres in the second round too. Perfect for RT to groom. Edited February 27, 2023 by Pure961089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 VAN has to get better at drafting, and here's hoping Lekkerimaki and (D) Pettersson work out and become good NHL players. Looking at the current roster, there are 5 players (below) on the team who were drafted by the Canucks (6 if you now count Silovs) Pettersson Podkolzin Boeser Hughes Demko This year's 1st Round (both picks) and the 2nd have to really count. The Canucks could use another Top 6 Forward (LW and C) and a RD. Givens are: Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov and Benson. I'd be happy with: VAN 1st (right-shot C or LW) - Smith, Sale or Yager NYI 1st - (right-shot D) - Sandin-Pellikka or Reinbacher VAN 2nd - (right-shot D) - Dragicevic or Strbak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pure961089 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 (edited) 18 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said: Hey, thanks for the tag! I kind of agree that is what I am reading, from everywhere But, I have a question Has there ever been a draft where there has not been 2 or 3 defenseman in the top 10? It can't be many times, if ever, that I can recall. Never say never, but it is early, and I am just saying! (Asking) So since 2000.........1 draft had 1 Dman in the top 10, 3 others had 2 Dmen, all the other had 3 or more, with 1 having 8 Dmen in the top 10. I would find it strange that the final draft did not have 1 or 2, possibly 3. ................Pellikka, Reinbacher, and Gulyayev...the jury is still out on this. But I get it, there is alot of great offensive forwards in this draft............which is why I say, lets wait and see what the final rankings look like. I am not saying I am right, only that it is worth considering............Love your knowledge, and am not questioning it, or your amigos on here either... Just a interested party!....That Islander pick is getting a pretty nice prospect! Yeah, this draft had a few D. Edited February 27, 2023 by Pure961089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High and Inside Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 I would be happy if we could snag Benson with our first pick. I also like Cristall. His shootout goal today was a lot of skill. I think he will go really high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthWest_Express Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said: I'd be happy with: VAN 1st (right-shot C or LW) - Smith, Sale or Yager NYI 1st - (right-shot D) - Sandin-Pellikka or Reinbacher VAN 2nd - (right-shot D) - Dragicevic or Strbak If Van's first pick is in that 7-10 range then you grab one of Dvorsky or Reinbacher Unfortunately there's a very real possibility that Reinbacher is gone by the NYI pick so if you grab him at say 8 then you can pick one of Sale, Moore, Leonard, Yager, or double down on the RHD and grab ASP For Van's 2nd round pick if RHD is the flavour of the draft then you grab Strbak or Bonk...honestly id look more at a faller like Haltunnen, Stramel, or But Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.I.A.H.N Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 So, as of today, we have the 6th, 18th, 38th, 70th, 102, and 122, picks in the first 4 rounds I am wondering if we get a better player, adding our 3rd and one of our 4th's together, to get another second? I wonder how far, we could move that 3rd round pick up, by adding that 4th round pick to it? Is it worth it? I feel it is, but wonder what other think. Is it realistic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammertime Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, J.I.A.H.N said: So, as of today, we have the 6th, 18th, 38th, 70th, 102, and 122, picks in the first 4 rounds I am wondering if we get a better player, adding our 3rd and one of our 4th's together, to get another second? I wonder how far, we could move that 3rd round pick up, by adding that 4th round pick to it? Is it worth it? I feel it is, but wonder what other think. Is it realistic? I think value wise we could only move up to a late 2nd at which point I think I'd rather have more bullets in the clip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownUndaCanuck Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Demko and Bo are going to ruin our picks. I'd be happy if we walk away from the first round with Will Smith and Reinbacher at this rate but we might end up worse off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 45 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said: Demko and Bo are going to ruin our picks. I'd be happy if we walk away from the first round with Will Smith and Reinbacher at this rate but we might end up worse off... Bo is gone, but Beau is on fire I think if VAN walks away with Smith and Reinbacher, that would be very successful. If they keep winning I could see them getting Dvorsky and Simashev. Also, not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownUndaCanuck Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 With Michkov firing lately I could see him going top 3 easily, heck he probably deserves 2OA, meaning Carlsson could fall to 4th. What does it cost us to move up from 6-8th overall to 4th, the NYI pick and who does that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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