Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim

[dougieL]

7 hours ago, Baggins said:

What a simple minded statement. How often is the a player better than those drafted above him? If you did a re-draft from drafts 5+ years ago would the actual order remain the same in the top 20? Never. The truth is it's a crap shoot. I simply don't have the loser mentality. You always play to win. If you can't get a good player at 11 why do you guys whine so much about trading a 2nd rounder? It's crybaby loser nonsense because it's just crossing your fingers and hoping your magic beans.become something. Even top 5 players don't turn out to be much. Which is why I just don't worry about it. Your ride is waiting...

Holy Jesus give your head a shake. Even if you're enamored with the 11th spot for some insane reason, getting a higher pick would have allowed the Canucks to trade down to the 11th spot for an additional asset. Or are you now going to argue that, since it's a crapshoot, the 11th pick and a higher pick are so interchangeable that the trade down would net us no additional assets? 

 

And how often is a player better than those drafted below him? Probably a lot more often than he is better than those drafted above him!

 

And who says you can't get a good player in the second round, or the 7th round?

 

Do you even understand the concept of probability, or is literally everything 50/50 for you? 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, dougieL said:

Holy Jesus give your head a shake. Even if you're enamored with the 11th spot for some insane reason, getting a higher pick would have allowed the Canucks to trade down to the 11th spot for an additional asset. Or are you now going to argue that, since it's a crapshoot, the 11th pick and a higher pick are so interchangeable that the trade down would net us no additional assets? 

 

And how often is a player better than those drafted below him? Probably a lot more often than he is better than those drafted above him!

 

And who says you can't get a good player in the second round, or the 7th round?

 

Do you even understand the concept of probability, or is literally everything 50/50 for you? 

Holy hamburger Batman, look at all those cows! 
I think the point is we can get a really good player at 11. Only Bedard is a sure thing in this draft. After him, if 5 years, all the guys picked in the top 15 will be all over the place for a redraft. The guy we get at 12 could very well be better than the guy taken at 5. 
We are winning! We are great! 

[dougieL]

8 hours ago, -DLC- said:

It makes it possible, that's all. I think that was the point.

 

I think you missed a logical point that is: nothing's proven until these guys hit the NHL. Their ranking only goes so far to substantiate their NHL ranking which can be deeply impacted. One of my favourite Giants, Gilbert Brule, is proof of that. It may not be the "norm" for higher picks not to live up to their ranking but there are no guarantees and I'd say the order may change once these guys are slotted in. So it's not really worth crying over (that our team won and was happier upon exit than they may have been). Their demeanour and how they view this team matters.

 

I'm a bit confused by your logical part that's highlighted...could you elaborate more please?

I'm not sure why I have to explain this, but here is an example: if a store was having a liquidation sale, would you want to get there early, or would you want to get there late?

 

Of course there are no guarantees. That's why you try to give yourself the best chance to have the better outcome. And a higher draft position allows one to have a better chance at a better outcome. Is this concept really so hard to understand?

 

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, dougieL said:

I'm not sure why I have to explain this, but here is an example: if a store was having a liquidation sale, would you want to get there early, or would you want to get there late?

 

Of course there are no guarantees. That's why you try to give yourself the best chance to have the better outcome. And a higher draft position allows one to have a better chance at a better outcome. Is this concept really so hard to understand?

 

Our current players don’t care about the draft. They try to win every game. Why would we want players who try to lose? 
Do you even realize how good Demko, Petey, Hughes, and Miller are? These are incredibly good players who compete every shift. They are crazy competitive and will compete in practice. 

[dougieL]

11 hours ago, Alflives said:

Where was Kopitar selected in his draft? 
Bedard is great. After him though it’s a lot of guys who will be good. And in a few years those guys will be reshuffled as to who are better. 
Are you saying a guy picked at 11OA can’t end up better than a guy picked higher? 

There was no rule that year stating that Kopitar could only be taken with the 11th pick. Any of the teams with picks 1-10 had the option to take him before LA took him at 11.

[Alflives]

25 minutes ago, dougieL said:

There was no rule that year stating that Kopitar could only be taken with the 11th pick. Any of the teams with picks 1-10 had the option to take him before LA took him at 11.

Exactly! All the teams selecting higher in the draft could have picked Kopitar. But they passed over him. That happens every draft. Prospects who end up better players are picked after the higher guys. So we can get a more impactful player at 11 than the team selecting at 2. 
We will get a very good prospect at 11. Bedard was always going to be a crap shoot. 

[dougieL]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Exactly! All the teams selecting higher in the draft could have picked Kopitar. But they passed over him. That happens every draft. Prospects who end up better players are picked after the higher guys. So we can get a more impactful player at 11 than the team selecting at 2. 
We will get a very good prospect at 11. Bedard was always going to be a crap shoot. 

Many teams passed over Datsyuk multiple times before Detroit took him in the 5th round. That doesn't all of a sudden make a 5th round pick as valuable as a first round pick.

[Alflives]

Just now, dougieL said:

Many teams passed over Datsyuk multiple times before Detroit took him in the 5th round. That doesn't all of a sudden make a 5th round pick as valuable as a first round pick.

Bure was a fifth rounder too. We will get a very good prospect at 11.  And in 3-5 years he could be better than the guy picked at 2. 
only Bedard is a sure thing in this draft. The other guys will will be reshuffled in 5 years as to who is better. 

[dougieL]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Bure was a fifth rounder too. We will get a very good prospect at 11.  And in 3-5 years he could be better than the guy picked at 2. 
only Bedard is a sure thing in this draft. The other guys will will be reshuffled in 5 years as to who is better. 

Haha okay you win...I give up 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, dougieL said:

Haha okay you win...I give up 

I actually thought you win!

Booze well my friend. 

[dougieL]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I actually thought you win!

Booze well my friend. 

Hahaha well done good sir

[OldFaithfulCap]

 

[Baggins]

9 hours ago, dougieL said:

Holy Jesus give your head a shake. Even if you're enamored with the 11th spot for some insane reason, getting a higher pick would have allowed the Canucks to trade down to the 11th spot for an additional asset. Or are you now going to argue that, since it's a crapshoot, the 11th pick and a higher pick are so interchangeable that the trade down would net us no additional assets? 

 

And how often is a player better than those drafted below him? Probably a lot more often than he is better than those drafted above him!

 

And who says you can't get a good player in the second round, or the 7th round?

 

Do you even understand the concept of probability, or is literally everything 50/50 for you? 

Then quit whining about an 11th overall. I hate the loser mentality. 

 

I'm not enamored about the draft at all. Some pan out, some don't. That's the reality. I don't get overly excited about who is selected or make wild predictions about what they will become. I just wait and see how they play in the NHL. I don't see picks as the magic beans you guys do. They don't always lead to the golden goose. No matter where you are drafting you need to score some hits. But even drafting high you'll have misses. I just believe in playing as best you can and let the magic beans fall where they may. If they aren't playing to win they shouldn't be on the team. Same goes for the coaches.

[dougieL]

58 minutes ago, Baggins said:

Then quit whining about an 11th overall. I hate the loser mentality. 

 

I'm not enamored about the draft at all. Some pan out, some don't. That's the reality. I don't get overly excited about who is selected or make wild predictions about what they will become. I just wait and see how they play in the NHL. I don't see picks as the magic beans you guys do. They don't always lead to the golden goose. No matter where you are drafting you need to score some hits. But even drafting high you'll have misses. I just believe in playing as best you can and let the magic beans fall where they may. If they aren't playing to win they shouldn't be on the team. Same goes for the coaches.

 

If you don't understand the importance of drafting and the value of a higher draft position, you probably shouldn't be making senseless comments like this. Have you ever seen trades in which a team trades down and nets an additional asset in return? 

 

 

I'm not advocating for players to quit or for coaches to sit the star players. But Hughes has the highest average ice time of any player in the NHL since Tocchet took over. Pettersson has been 4th among forwards. Miller is top 10 or top 15. Demko played at a 60+ game pace. They easily could have played these guys less and given more ice time to evaluate or develop other players. 

 

 

 

 

[Mackcanuck]

People cry, moan and complain about how or who or at what number we draft,

Even tho we have drafted generational players #1C Petey, #1D Hughes and #1G Demko

[dougieL]

34 minutes ago, Mackcanuck said:

People cry, moan and complain about how or who or at what number we draft,

Even tho we have drafted generational players #1C Petey, #1D Hughes and #1G Demko

Yeah since we have 3 good players already, we don't need anymore. In fact, just to make sure we don't draft any more good players, we make a huge push over the second half of the season to get out of a good draft position.

[Boudrias]

14 minutes ago, dougieL said:

Yeah since we have 3 good players already, we don't need anymore. In fact, just to make sure we don't draft any more good players, we make a huge push over the second half of the season to get out of a good draft position.

There have been a good 8 teams that have been tanking for a month now. Press claim that the Habs are genius but Van not so much? I could have settled with the year end outcome if Hughes, Petey and Demko had got less TOI. From #5 down to #11? I don't know what Allvin was thinking. As you rightly pointed out Canucks could have traded down for more assets if they saw value. 

 

Any Canuck fan who thinks this core is deep enough as it sits had better do some homework and watch the Cup playoffs. They might twig onto how far this roster has to go to be true Cup contenders. It is my impression that many fans will simply be happy to make playoffs and think being a serious Cup is simply up to the gods. No there is no guarantees. Vancouver could have drafted #5, resigned Petey, bought out OEL, traded BB and Meyers for picks and still not iced a Cup contender. As a fan I want the odds in our favor as much as possible. This lost tank effort was a huge fumble.  

[dougieL]

11 hours ago, dougieL said:

Wait...what happened here...why did your post disappear, along with my quote of it in my post? I actually didn't realize mods are allowed to edit other people's posts...

@-DLC- I'm actually a bit confused...what happened?

[Provost]

22 hours ago, .Naslund said:

I get an increasingly uneasy feeling in my gut that we’re going to trade this pick…

Frankly… with the half pregnant moves we have been making and to secure their “vision” it might make sense in that context.

 

If you could trade the pick and shed a bunch of cap, at least you have an open slate to leverage that cap space.  If the move loses you OEL and Myers… but gains you the ability to sign Gavrikov and Barbashev.  That is much more likely to get us into the playoffs next season which is their stated aim

 

Of course that is a stupid plan and the long term quest this team has had to become a bubble playoff team at the expense of proper rebuilding has ruined our chances to be an actual contender for a decade now, and facing a decade more coming up.

 

The very sad part, is that fans here have become so accustomed to losing and rationalizing it, if this management gossip manages to get us into the playoffs with first round exits each of the next two or three seasons by robbing our future… they will be cheered as heroes.

[I.Am.Ironman]

2 hours ago, Mackcanuck said:

People cry, moan and complain about how or who or at what number we draft,

Even tho we have drafted generational players #1C Petey, #1D Hughes and #1G Demko

As much as I like them they are not generational..yet. Generational players are Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin, Karlsson, Price, Mackinnon, Hedman etc. Not every team has one, never mind three. But their story isn't written yet so time will tell. Hughes probably has the best chance.

 

As for tanking.. I think the issue gets convoluted because everyone argues based on their subjective definition of what tanking is. Some interpret it as management trading roster players for futures, shutting down stars if they are hurt (not injured), which leads to more games lost in the short term. Some view tanking as intentional throwing of games by coaches or players.. you know the "you can't tell players to lose, it's not in their DNA". Most people on 'Team Tank' aren't suggesting that.

 

My frustration with the Canucks specifically is that we were playing one of our most valuable assets, Quinn Hughes, 27 minutes a night. Those are playoffs numbers. There was no need to take on the extra injury risk. Same with Demko - it is more important for Demko to remain healthy going into the summer than for the Canucks to win a meaningless game down the stretch. The last 10 games was an opportunity to see more of Rathbone, Podz, Woo who have all been playing well in Abby. A positive side effect of this strategy is that it usually translates into a better draft position.