Nikolaj Ehlers

[Absent Canuck]

My bad. Esposito scored 98pts as a 16/17 year old in 2005-20006, the year before his draft year and I also seemed to have misread Sheppard's stat line (for that one I do apologize).

I think Brassard is a borderline top-six. Underwhelming for a #6 pick but whattya do? Weak draft year (much like this year).

The bottom line is, out of 180 1st round picks from 2005-2010 the QMJHL had something like 10 forwards picked and 4 turned into top-six forwards (one of which was a surefire NHLer before he stepped into the league). That's not a very good sign as Ehlers is not Crosby.

No. The bottom line is you were wrong. No 100 point plus guy from the Q has busted. You valiantly tried to dig out the stats but when you found out they didnt fit your narrative, you simply moved the goalposts to anyone who scored 90 or more, and some not even in their draft year to boot. You even quoted on guy who got 86.

All of the 100 plus point guys from the Q are NHL regulars and one is already a superstar in the making. The third is highly touted as a 3rd overall pick and Ehlers is the 4th one.

You tried. to separate Ehlers 104 point season from the previous three and claim he could be a bust ? It simply tarnishes your credibility.

[Absent Canuck]

Just read from someone on HF that apparently Gillis got axed the second they started scouting EHlers, when Gilman went to Halifax

A bad rumour but kind of funny to think about.

That is what you call revisionist history. Gilman went afterwards.

[Smashian Kassian]

My bad. Esposito scored 98pts as a 16/17 year old in 2005-20006, the year before his draft year and I also seemed to have misread Sheppard's stat line (for that one I do apologize).

I think Brassard is a borderline top-six. Underwhelming for a #6 pick but whattya do? Weak draft year (much like this year).

The bottom line is, out of 180 1st round picks from 2005-2010 the QMJHL had something like 10 forwards picked and 4 turned into top-six forwards (one of which was a surefire NHLer before he stepped into the league). That's not a very good sign as Ehlers is not Crosby.

That's fine. My point still stands.

For reference:

Brassard, Crosby, Giroux, Drouin, Huberdeau & Ehlers were the only ones.

In the years since the lockout,3 of those came in the first 2 years, the other 3 in the last 8.

And comparing 1st round picks from the Q to Ehlers doesn't mean anything, that list largely is made up of players that don't even come close to Ehlers as a prospect. Not even close.

Its like me saying 3 of the 4 American first rounders in 2007 that played USHL or University/Collage hockey (Petrecki, O'Brien, White, Pacioretty) have busted, so Jack Eichel will surely bust next year. Just doesn't work at all.

Its because he cherry picked it to try to frame a conclusion he had already decided before he set forth to try to call you out.

There is no 100plus point guy in their draft year from the Q who busts. It doesnt happen that way. 100 point guys are very rare .

The last 100 point guys are MacKinnon, Drouin, and now Ehlers.

What is happening is that people are digging in when it comes to their draft choice. So they come up with all kinds of slanted spin to try to invalidate the other prospects. I find it childish and irrelevant.

Some folks want Ritchie. Great. I wont cry if we pick him. Some folks want Virtanen. I think #6 is a little too high for him but again it aint Jason Herter.

I want Ehlers or Nylander. Both are probable 1st line players and if the stars are right will be NHL all stars. I wish people would put down their hate and just accept the fact that we get a great player with any of Ritchie, Ehlers and Nylander.

My only hope is we can snag Ottawas 10th overall and Virtanen is still on the table. Maybe Winni will pick Perini or Fleury.

Mackinnon didn't even hit 100 points, (though there is really no doubt he would have) and look how good he is, recently 100 point draft eligible players are a very rare breed, and Ehlers looks to be the next one.

In a league where an 18yr old Ian Laperiere can score 140pts, it's probably best to curb your enthusiasm on high-scoring players.

....................................

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Yes, there have been some stars to come out of there lately, but 100pt getters are NOT rare at all. Neither are total busts. imho The Q breeds weak players on the whole. And Ehlers is just another one of those.

Ehlers is a super-skinny kid playing alongside Jonathan Drouin, who is pretty much the best player in the Q at the moment and really should be playing in Tampa Bay. He possesses no strength, no defense, no ability to take a hit, and his offense is obviously overrated, due to the Q/Drouin factor.

He is not just a risk. He is a HUGE risk to pick up at 6th overall.

People clearly need to know their history when it comes to the draft. Don't discount the Q entirely, no, but certainly take into account how padded their stats get due to the league being an ultra-weak bust maker. If the guy looks as soft as butter in that league, then rest assured his future in the NHL is murky at best.

That list is horrendous. The Q has improved drastically in the last 7 or 8 years (hell the last 4 or 5) let alone the last 10-20

Re the bolded: You saying these things are as stupid as me saying Jake Virtanen couldn't beat John Scott in a foot race, is softer than a pillow, and doesn't have the ability to ever score another goal at any level in his hockey career again.

I do know my history of the Q, I think its you and others that need to brush up, the history says since the 04-05 lockout 0 players that put up 100+ points in their draft year have gone on to bust. And the league has only improved over that time.

[Absent Canuck]

Ok. Here is the bottom line on Ehlers. The indisputable facts that no doubt explain why Gillman went to Halifax to personally scout Ehlers.

Going back 10 years, there have been 6 previous guys who have scored 100 points or more during their draft year in the Q .

They are :

Sidney Crosby -first overall

Derek Brassard -6th overall

Claude Girioux-22nd overall

Johnathan Huberdeau -3rd overall

Nathan Mac Kinnon -1st overall

Johnathan Drouin -3rd overall

And now we have (drum roll please) ..........Nickolaj Ehlers.

With the history of these players, it would take a suspension of disbelief. A willful denial, to think Ehlers wont match up with his predecessors. In other words, its extremely difficult to get 100 points in the Quebec league. Seven times in the last 10 years.

The objective facts point to Ehlers being a sure fire NHL player and probable all star.

Edit: What makes Ehlers case even more amazing is I am pretty sure he is the only one to come from Europe and pull that off in his first year playing on NHL sized rinks.

Voracek came over from the Czech Republic and he only got 85.

[WiDeN]

Why don't people understand.

ANYONE we pick this year won't step into the league for three years at least.

We have a solid team and the ability to wait and develop these kids properly.

So if its Ritchie, Ehlers, Draistl, Bennett, Reinhardt, MDC or Virtanen expect to not see them for a while if you want them to pan out properly.

whoever we pick this and next season, it is imperative we develop them properly with a minimum of one full AHL season.

And hope for Ekblad, Reinhart or Dal Colle....

Ekblad has a snowball's chance in hell that he slips past the Oilers. Reinhart, and Bennet... maaaaaaaaaaaybe fall. Doubt it.

Draisaitl, Dal Colle are the only two plausible top 5's that drop, I'd say.

[S N Y P E R S 7]

Draisaitl is going to Edmonton, it's almost predetermined.
They have SUCH A HUGE hard-on for him, McTavish relishes the chance to pick a guy of that calibre.

Drais is going to Edm.

[WiDeN]

Dude... I live in Edmonton. I listen to the radio all day long. The consensus among the media guys who are around the team is that if Ekblad is available, they take him without question. I would assume Bennet and Draisaitl come immediately after Ekblad, but unless the whole Edmonton sports media is completely off base, then Ekblad is at the top of their list. He damn well should be too. They dressed a defense that couldn't dress themselves this year, and there is no way they pass up on a Dman with Ekblad's size and potential. They could use a talented 2nd line center, but they don't NEED one like they do a real defenseman.

[MoneypuckOverlord]

Ok. Here is the bottom line on Ehlers. The indisputable facts that no doubt explain why Gillman went to Halifax to personally scout Ehlers.

Going back 10 years, there have been 6 previous guys who have scored 100 points or more during their draft year in the Q .

They are :

Sidney Crosby -first overall

Derek Brassard -6th overall

Claude Girioux-22nd overall

Johnathan Huberdeau -3rd overall

Nathan Mac Kinnon -1st overall

Johnathan Drouin -3rd overall

And now we have (drum roll please) ..........Nickolaj Ehlers.

With the history of these players, it would take a suspension of disbelief. A willful denial, to think Ehlers wont match up with his predecessors. In other words, its extremely difficult to get 100 points in the Quebec league. Seven times in the last 10 years.

The objective facts point to Ehlers being a sure fire NHL player and probable all star.

Edit: What makes Ehlers case even more amazing is I am pretty sure he is the only one to come from Europe and pull that off in his first year playing on NHL sized rinks.

Voracek came over from the Czech Republic and he only got 85.

Sidney Crosby well..... Sidney Crosby would have played in any leauge and would have been a number 1 pick no matter what. Please don't ask why.

Brassard has failed miserably to live up to expectations. I don't want to use our 6 th pick on a guy who is floating between 3rd and second line and who is barely a second line player

Claude Girioux ok fine. good turn out.

Johnathan Huberdeau -3rd overall terrible second season.

Nathan Mac Kinnon -1st overall same category as Crosby. He would have played in any leauge and would be number 1

Johnathan Drouin -3rd overall well this kid is the real deal for sure. We won't argue about that, cause people know, him Mack, Crosby will will be truly the real deal. Ehlers is not even in the same damn category as the above listed guys

[CANUCKS FTW!]

Sidney Crosby well..... Sidney Crosby would have played in any leauge and would have been a number 1 pick no matter what. Please don't ask why.

Brassard has failed miserably to live up to expectations. I don't want to use our 6 th pick on a guy who is floating between 3rd and second line and who is barely a second line player

Claude Girioux ok fine. good turn out.

Johnathan Huberdeau -3rd overall terrible second season.

Nathan Mac Kinnon -1st overall same category as Crosby. He would have played in any leauge and would be number 1

Johnathan Drouin -3rd overall well this kid is the real deal for sure. We won't argue about that, cause people know, him Mack, Crosby will will be truly the real deal. Ehlers is not even in the same damn category as the above listed guys

He hasn't played a single game yet and you're already saying that? Now I am not saying that he will be in the same league as Crosby but you have to give him some credit for putting up similar stats. I see Ehlers as a high 60 or mid 70 point player. In his prime maybe even tops 80. The Canucks rarely has a chance to draft someone his caliber.

[Smashian Kassian]

Dude... I live in Edmonton. I listen to the radio all day long. The consensus among the media guys who are around the team is that if Ekblad is available, they take him without question. I would assume Bennet and Draisaitl come immediately after Ekblad, but unless the whole Edmonton sports media is completely off base, then Ekblad is at the top of their list. He damn well should be too. They dressed a defense that couldn't dress themselves this year, and there is no way they pass up on a Dman with Ekblad's size and potential. They could use a talented 2nd line center, but they don't NEED one like they do a real defenseman.

Ekblad would be the dream scenario for EDM, he the best player in the draft IMO, and the guy they could use the most, I doubt he's available though.

And I see them going with Bennett/Draisaitl aswell. With there being rumours about them liking Draisaitl I could see that as a serious possibility.

Sidney Crosby well..... Sidney Crosby would have played in any leauge and would have been a number 1 pick no matter what. Please don't ask why.

Brassard has failed miserably to live up to expectations. I don't want to use our 6 th pick on a guy who is floating between 3rd and second line and who is barely a second line player

Claude Girioux ok fine. good turn out.

Johnathan Huberdeau -3rd overall terrible second season.

Nathan Mac Kinnon -1st overall same category as Crosby. He would have played in any leauge and would be number 1

Johnathan Drouin -3rd overall well this kid is the real deal for sure. We won't argue about that, cause people know, him Mack, Crosby will will be truly the real deal. Ehlers is not even in the same damn category as the above listed guys

At this point the facts suggest otherwise. (aside from Crosby). He may not be the next Mackinnon or Giroux, but I don't see why he can't a star 1st liner himself.

FTR, Huberdeau had a tough season with injuries, I would bet he's FLA's best player next season, no doubts in my mind he's the real deal, and not a bust. That list is pretty bullet proof, even Brassard has had some good 2nd line years.

[Millerdraft]

No. The bottom line is you were wrong. No 100 point plus guy from the Q has busted. You valiantly tried to dig out the stats but when you found out they didnt fit your narrative, you simply moved the goalposts to anyone who scored 90 or more, and some not even in their draft year to boot. You even quoted on guy who got 86.

All of the 100 plus point guys from the Q are NHL regulars and one is already a superstar in the making. The third is highly touted as a 3rd overall pick and Ehlers is the 4th one.

You tried. to separate Ehlers 104 point season from the previous three and claim he could be a bust ? It simply tarnishes your credibility.

Angelo Esposito had 98pts at an even younger age and busted hard. If you don't think that 98pts at 16/17 is equal to, if not better than, 100pts at 17/18 then I'm not sure what to say. Talk about narratives...

"98pts isn't akin to 100pts!!"

[Millerdraft]

That's fine. My point still stands.

For reference:

Brassard, Crosby, Giroux, Drouin, Huberdeau & Ehlers were the only ones.

In the years since the lockout,3 of those came in the first 2 years, the other 3 in the last 8.

And comparing 1st round picks from the Q to Ehlers doesn't mean anything, that list largely is made up of players that don't even come close to Ehlers as a prospect. Not even close.

Its like me saying 3 of the 4 American first rounders in 2007 that played USHL or University/Collage hockey (Petrecki, O'Brien, White, Pacioretty) have busted, so Jack Eichel will surely bust next year. Just doesn't work at all.

Fair enough your are correct that almost none of the busts I listed were comparables but Esposito is/was, in fact, a similar player if not an exact comparable.

[Smashian Kassian]

Angelo Esposito had 98pts at an even younger age and busted hard. If you don't think that 98pts at 16/17 is equal to, if not better than, 100pts at 17/18 then I'm not sure what to say. Talk about narratives...

"98pts isn't akin to 100pts!!"

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0051802006.html

Radulov had 152 points in 62 games that season. Over 2 PPG.

Take a look at that link, incredible the kind of point totals that team had, 7 players with PPG or higher, and a number of others that were very close.

My theory is he was partly a by-product of those guys.

The next year without them we saw him regress, and as a whole they weren't as good, only had 4 players PPG or higher.

http://eurohockey.com/stats/club/2013/3464-quebec-remparts.html?season=2007&type=1&position=0&league=300

Fair enough your are correct that almost none of the busts I listed were comparables but Esposito is/was, in fact, a similar player if not an exact comparable.

Far from a comparable at all really IMO.

Again, thus-far Ehlers is in an elite class.

[Millerdraft]

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0051802006.html

Radulov had 152 points in 62 games that season. Over 2 PPG.

Take a look at that link, incredible the kind of point totals that team had, 7 players with PPG or higher, and a number of others that were very close.

My theory is he was partly a by-product of those guys.

The next year without them we saw him regress, and as a whole they weren't as good, only had 4 players PPG or higher.

http://eurohockey.com/stats/club/2013/3464-quebec-remparts.html?season=2007&type=1&position=0&league=300

Far from a comparable at all really IMO.

Again, thus-far Ehlers is in an elite class.

I guess we'll find out once Drouin leaves junior.

[Drouin]

I guess we'll find out once Drouin leaves junior.

In the five games Ehlers played when Drouin went to the WJC, he had 3 goals, six assists.

Small sample size, but Ehlers did better when Drouin wasn't there.

[S N Y P E R S 7]

[Anti-Bettman]

fun fact: Ehlers played with Patrick Kane during the lockout with EHC Biel before being drafted 6th overall into the Q. Kane is also Ehlers favourite player

Will he be drafted 6th overall again? Let's hope so!

[BanTSN]

I do know my history of the Q, I think its you and others that need to brush up, the history says since the 04-05 lockout 0 players that put up 100+ points in their draft year have gone on to bust. And the league has only improved over that time.

Okay, since it takes years to officially bust, I was surprised to find one still in your narrow window.

Francois Bouchard 102pts 2006 draft year

The problem with this 100pt argument is that while there have been 100pt stars coming out of the Q lately, not one of them is as skinny, undersized and as weak as Ehlers.

I agree that the league has improved though.

[CANUCKS FTW!]

How is Mike Hoffman a bust? He played 25 games this year for Ottawa and had 67 points in 51 games in the AHL. If he is still in the AHL after next season, you can say he is a bust. Right now, he has a pretty good chance of being a regular for Sens next year.

[cdgraham]

hey this is my first ever post so hoorah, but on a different note, ive read these forums and i just need to say this, im with snypers on this one, people need to stop comparing ehlers to schroeder, lets put that to bed cause jordans 5 8 at 23 and ehlers is already 5 11, and faster and more skilled, and also i know everybody wants ritchie, but im not so sure, i know, he could end up being great, but do people know torres put up 91 points in his 2nd season in the ohl, was voted runner up for the best stick handler, voted most dangerous in the goal area and i think also got the votes for best shot, was drafted 5th overall, i also know nick ritchie is bigger then torres and better skater then torres was at the time but still, im saying large players that score alot and have great skill and speed and dominate junior because of it also dont often translate it to the nhl either, just like small players! sure they are more likely to be in the nhl cause they can be on a 3rd on 4th line, but they are less likely to be game breaking 1st line players, which is what i believe the canucks really need, and no shinkaruk doesnt make ehlers "redundant" just like kassian doesnt make ritchie "redundant" thats a terrible way of drafting when you have a high pick, and also, some fun facts about ehlers, (and why i dont really think hes actually that big a risk) last rookie in the q to score 49 goals was none other then sydney crosby, (i know he was younger but still impressive) and last rookie to get 100 points in the q was claude giroux, and ehlers had more goals then giroux that year and more points, also has had a better playoffs by a good margin, also ehlers is not a perimeter player, ive seen for my self, not to mention how ehlers improved to 2 points per game close to the end of the season, very impressive, and lastly (i think) and this is a huge thing for me, people need to stop saying we shouldnt draft ehlers cause hed get eaten alive in the pacific division, ehlers wont be nhl ready for 3 to 4 years, and wont be in his prime for about 9-10 years, how do we know what the pacific will look like then?? landscapes change, and just because its big and strong now doesnt mean it will be even 5 years from now, heck evne 3 years from now there could be a little more room, so ya theres that, and its easier to find big strong powerfowards in the later rounds then finding elite 1st liners like giroux, we can draft for size if the second round if we must, although we should try and get ottawas pick and draft virtanen as well, and then draft brendan lemiex in the second round, would be amazing, but ya, im sure my first post will be my lpongest by a wide margin just had to say these things