Lukas Jasek | RW

[BaerBoBoeser]

18 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

@Jägermeister: lots of good points and much that I agree with. ^^^

 

I try to throw a little water on things from time to time in here as well.

 

But mostly I've just been trying to keep up with the stats, and adding a little colour commentary when Jašek does something of note (like a 5 point night in U20 or tallying the most PIM in WSM Liga playoffs).

 

The problem with Jašek is he's extremely tough to project. His Extraliga numbers are not good. His WSM Liga numbers are quite good. And his ELJ (U20) numbers are off the charts. What does that all mean?

 

Generally speaking, a guy with Jašek's lower level numbers would produce better Extraliga numbers. When you look at other players with similar stats at lower levels, they tend to post at least fairly respectable Extraliga numbers as well. Some of this comes down to the team Jašek is on, as Trinec appears to not favour giving quality opportunities to their U20s (at least over the past decade or so).

 

I also think Jašek's slight frame comes into effect. He has peers that have similar or lesser WSM Liga numbers who manage to produce much better than he does in Extraliga. Many of them seem to have more of a "man's body" than Jašek. Do they get better opportunities? Hard to say. But Jašek's inability to earn quality minutes or post numbers at that level is a concern.

 

That said, when you look at league equivalencies, Jasek's WSM Liga production this season works out to around 20-25 points in the NHL (over an 82 game season) And depending on whose calculations you use, WSM Liga has an NHLe range that's actually similar to Allsvenskan. So Jasek being nearly a point per game at that level gives some reason for optimism (since some NHLe calcs would value his production similar to Dahlén's this season, although others would say Dahlén's points are worth around 150% of Jašek's)

 

It's pretty tough to predict was he's going to become. I doubt there are any current NHL players that would come up as close statistical matches (in cohort modelling) to Jašek today. I can't think of any player that's taken this kind of route to the NHL. That doesn't mean it can't happen, just not much to work with in terms of comparables.

 

I strongly agree that the CHL would have been the ideal route for Jašek after he was drafted. But unfortunately, Trinec consistently blocked this option.

 

So we wait for the Czech contract to run out and then hopefully an ELC with Vancouver follows. And at long last, we'll get a chance to see this kid play some hockey that gives us something tangible to base our predictions on. Until then, who knows.

 

But at least the kid is improving (based on his WSM Liga numbers) and rounding out his game (based on what we saw at the WJC). 

 

He's still very much a project though. He'll definitely need to get stronger, at least based on the vitals we see listed for him. And NA pro is a serious adjustment (which time in the CHL could have mitigated but that ship already sailed). I think he remains a boom/bust prospect and a little bit of an enigma.

 

I'm very interested to see what we get when he finally comes over. But I'm not expecting much. I won't be surprised if he washes out. But then again, I won't necessarily be surprised if he eventually cracks the NHL and becomes a pretty decent player.

Very interesting post thanks for the intelligent insight!

 

Not a bad thing for a kid that small to be kind of shielded until his body starts catching up. Some kids just take longer to 'man strength' out, regardless of how hard they work in the gym.

 

I was 160 lbs in grade 12 and 5'11 - played football and hockey competitively till 24 and topped out at 6'1 185 at 24. I  couldn't add muscle to save my life

 

By the time I hit 25/26 I was 6'1 200 and strong as hell, just a late bloomer and cried at night wishing that I had that man strength 4 years earlier! it was such a difference and probably would have got me somewhere professional in either sport!

 

I think 2 years in the AHL gaining weight, learning the north american pro game an allowing his body to catch up, we'll be able to know what we have.

Edited March 15, 2017 by BaerBoBoeser

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

2 minutes ago, BaerBoBoeser said:

Very interesting post thanks for the intelligent insight!

 

Not a bad thing for a kid that small to be kind of shielded until his body starts catching up. Some kids just take longer to 'man strength' out, regardless of how hard they work in the gym.

 

I was 160 lbs in grade 12 and 5'11 - played football and hockey competitively till 24 and topped out at 6'1 185 couldn't add muscle to save my life

 

By the time I hit 25/26 I was 6'1 200 and strong as hell, just a late bloomer and cried at night wishing I had not the weight but the man strength, it was such a difference! LOL

 

I think 2 years in the AHL gaining weight, learning the north american pro game an allowing his body to catch up, we'll be able to know what we have.

I think adding strength will be key. And doing so without losing his quickness/agility and compromising his skating and skill. It's challenging. And everybody's body is different. Some guys can pack on muscle with little more effort than some diet adjustment and hardly even upping their training. Other guys can work extremely hard with their training and diet and will stay super lean no matter how much they want to bulk up (of course I'm sticking with legal/ethical options here).

 

And then there's just the boy/man stuff and how we're all working on different schedules in life.

 

I can definitely relate to the "late bloomer" stuff.

 

I was the smallest kid among 2500 students when I started high school. Looked 3-4 years younger than I actually was. By the time I graduated, I was about normal height but super skinny. Actually kept growing taller into my twenties. And didn't really "man out" my muscle mass until mid-to-late twenties. The benefit is now that I'm an "old man," people still tend to think I'm 10 years younger than I really am. Guess my clock runs slower than most people. And I sure can appreciate that now that I'm older. But it definitely sucked to be a smooth faced little shrimp when my buddies were growing full beards and standing about a head taller than me.

 

But this perspective always makes me feel like we should never count out players as "too small" or "too weak" who are slight in frame, or even just tiny, when they're teenagers. Some of them will keep adding height for a few post-draft years and won't really be able to build their "man's strength" and add significant mass until they stop growing.

 

Of course most people fall within fairly narrow norms and drafting/scouting/projecting is about playing percentages and making good bets. And betting on a guy having my (or your) kind of growth/development timeline isn't generally going to pay out often. But it does happen.

 

Bringing it all back to Jašek again, I think his boyish looks suggest he's maybe a little slower to physically mature than some. And so I wouldn't be surprised if he's able to add quite a bit of muscle into his twenties if he puts in the work. He's 6'1" and around 170 lbs (at age 19). Maybe he stays lean and tops out at 185ish but honestly, 195-200 (or even more) wouldn't be unheard of, especially if he's still growing.

[BaerBoBoeser]

5 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I think adding strength will be key. And doing so without losing his quickness/agility and compromising his skating and skill. It's challenging. And everybody's body is different. Some guys can pack on muscle with little more effort than some diet adjustment and hardly even upping their training. Other guys can work extremely hard with their training and diet and will stay super lean no matter how much they want to bulk up (of course I'm sticking with legal/ethical options here).

 

And then there's just the boy/man stuff and how we're all working on different schedules in life.

 

I can definitely relate to the "late bloomer" stuff.

 

I was the smallest kid among 2500 students when I started high school. Looked 3-4 years younger than I actually was. By the time I graduated, I was about normal height but super skinny. Actually kept growing taller into my twenties. And didn't really "man out" my muscle mass until mid-to-late twenties. The benefit is now that I'm an "old man," people still tend to think I'm 10 years younger than I really am. Guess my clock runs slower than most people. And I sure can appreciate that now that I'm older. But it definitely sucked to be a smooth faced little shrimp when my buddies were growing full beards and standing about a head taller than me.

 

But this perspective always makes me feel like we should never count out players as "too small" or "too weak" who are slight in frame, or even just tiny, when they're teenagers. Some of them will keep adding height for a few post-draft years and won't really be able to build their "man's strength" and add significant mass until they stop growing.

 

Of course most people fall within fairly narrow norms and drafting/scouting/projecting is about playing percentages and making good bets. And betting on a guy having my (or your) kind of growth/development timeline isn't generally going to pay out often. But it does happen.

 

Bringing it all back to Jašek again, I think his boyish looks suggest he's maybe a little slower to physically mature than some. And so I wouldn't be surprised if he's able to add quite a bit of muscle into his twenties if he puts in the work. He's 6'1" and around 170 lbs (at age 19). Maybe he stays lean and tops out at 185ish but honestly, 195-200 (or even more) wouldn't be unheard of, especially if he's still growing.

Agree , that's why patience is always the key physically with players - skill you can't teach, but size can come

 

One of the big things scouts do is always meet parents, and its not for them to only know if the kid comes from a good home, they want to see how his parent are 'built' - how big a man the father is etc....seriously - and it makes sense - not just with horses!

 

Granlund is at best 185 (I'd be surprised if that heavy) so if he's in the 180's but can play, I don't think it will be an issue - but the speed and quickness will be key for him then and as with all physically smaller players, learning how to play within that and still be effective

Edited March 15, 2017 by BaerBoBoeser

[Noble 6]

9 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

I really hope that you are happy if it does happen, but I don't think that he is good enough to play in the AHL if we're being honest here.  0 points in 16 games in ExtraLiga would be equivalent to getting -10 points in the AHL

 

I'm not as concerned about him translating his points in his first 1-3 seasons. I just want to see what type of game he can bring and let him know what type of game he has to grow into. Let him learn systems, how to forecheck efficiently, adjust his game, etc. 

 

It it seems as though his Czech team has tied him down quite a bit since being drafted. If we could bring him into a more controlled environment I think it will make all the difference. 

 

I think he has the potential to be an effective player, but we need to take control of his development. I understand what you mean about -10 points though. 

[elvis15]

19 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

...

I was the smallest kid among 2500 students when I started high school. Looked 3-4 years younger than I actually was. By the time I graduated, I was about normal height but super skinny. Actually kept growing taller into my twenties. And didn't really "man out" my muscle mass until mid-to-late twenties. The benefit is now that I'm an "old man," people still tend to think I'm 10 years younger than I really am. Guess my clock runs slower than most people. And I sure can appreciate that now that I'm older. But it definitely sucked to be a smooth faced little shrimp when my buddies were growing full beards and standing about a head taller than me.

...

Same here. I look younger even at 41 now, and was 6', 130lbs in high school. Slightly taller but 185lbs by my late twenties and it made a difference in my rugby. Sadly, it continued to make a difference when my metabolism slowed down and 185 turned to 205...

 

But you can see by his style of play that more strength would help Jasek. That he hasn't translated his U20 success into more success against men (even factoring for his reduced usage there) is a little concerning, but let's see what happens when he gets over here - hopefully next year. We do see somewhat of a comparable in Dahlen doing something similar this year, albeit with better usage and more production beyond the U20 level. Jasek's WJHCs looked good though, and maybe even if the offence doesn't pan out at as high a level as we'd like, he could be a very serviceable bottom 6 player. I'd be very happy if he turned out along the mold of Hansen or Granlund for us.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

10 hours ago, elvis15 said:

Sadly, it continued to make a difference when my metabolism slowed down and 185 turned to 205...

Had the same experience once I crossed 40. Needed to learn I couldn't eat like a 20-something anymore. Of course, I knew this already, but had to start seeing some "dad body" results start happening before I decided to change my diet to a more appropriate one for my age.  

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Just a little tidbit while Jašek is between playoff series. I looked up his entire Czech club career and he's always been either even or a plus player, on all teams and at all levels.

 

He's only been a minus in international play (like the WJC--which is hardly surprising given where the Czechs rank against the superpower teams). 

 

Edit: Grr.. got burned by a bad stats website (above info). Looking at better sources, Jašek has picked up the occasional minus season during his Czech career.

Edited March 19, 2017 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[vancan3322]

 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

23 minutes ago, vancan3322 said:

 

Yep. That included a five point night (2G, 3A) where he tallied points on every goal his team scored, a three assist game, a two goal game, and a two assist game.

 

He's a beast at the Extraliga Junioru (U20) level.

 

But that's to be expected. 

Edited March 18, 2017 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Looks like Jašek's been called up to Trinec's senior men's team (Extraliga level) for their playoff series against Piráti Chomutov.

 

Hasn't scored but seems to be getting decent icetime (played 17ish minutes last game). 

 

Currently playing a game, and can follow live (just the live stats unfortunately) here:

 

http://www.hokej.cz/zapas/2522758

 

https://m.tipsport.cz/#/live/in-play

 

Based on icetime, he seems to be be playing on Trinec's third line.

 

EDIT: Jašek with the first assist on the go ahead goal (Trinec leads 2-1). 

 

He's also 60% on faceoffs (and second most draws taken on his team thus far this game).

 

EDIT2: And CHM scores. Tied 2-2

 

EDIT3: 60 minutes done. Remains 2-2, headed for OT.

 

Jasek with 15:41 TOI, 1 assist, +1, 2 shots, and 8/15 on faceoffs.

 

EDIT4: Trinec wins 3-2 in double OT. Jasek finishes with 21:20 TOI, 10/19 faceoffs, and otherwise the same stats as above

Edited March 22, 2017 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

According to Trinec's lineup charts (courtesy hokej.cz), it looks like Jašek has been slotted in as the 4C (on their top men's team) but is working his way up the lineup the last couple games. He's definitely playing more minutes than the other 4th liners and depth guys. Plus he's being relied on for plenty of faceoffs (second most draws taken on team last game). 

 

Had an important assist today on the 2nd goal. And seemed to get decent usage late in 3rd period and through OT.

 

Can't tell too much more than that from the stats, but seems like he's playing fairly well during these couple games in the Extraliga playoffs and doing enough to elevate himself from the fourth line to more of a middle-six type of usage.

Edited March 22, 2017 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[Derp...]

This is good news!

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

18 hours ago, Derp... said:

This is good news!

Yup.

 

Nice to see him hitting the scoresheet and playing meaningful minutes at the Extraliga level.

 

Especially during the playoffs.

 

Means a lot more to get postseason minutes rather then them just throwing him a bone or two during far less crucial regular season games.

 

Hopefully he can continue to produce some offense. Seems like they're also employing him in a checking/two-way role and putting him out for key faceoffs. Speaks to his development as a more complete player.

 

What I'd love to see is him chipping in some points at this level. That's been the concern for a while. But it's very encouraging to see him scoring (even just a single primary assist), now that he's getting what appears to be quality minutes and opportunities.

 

Hopefully he can continue to show enough (at both ends) to maintain the icetime he's getting right now. And have some puck luck that allows him to post decent numbers along the way.

Edited March 23, 2017 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME
Typos, autocorrect

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Jašek back in action today. Game starts at 9:30am Vancouver time. Can follow the score and live stats (and text descriptions of the plays if you read Czech) here: http://www.hokej.cz/zapas/2522762

 

Trinec is down 3-2 in the series and facing elimination.

 

Also, you can watch Jašek's assist (and his entire previous game) here: http://www.hokej.cz/zapas/2522758/video

 

About 1 hour 1 minute into the video is the scoring play.

 

Jašek wins a D-zone draw and heads up ice. Teammates work the puck and feed a rushing Jašek with a nice pass. He receives the puck just coming over the opposition blue line, moves in with speed, draws the defender, and then some backhand sauce to setup his winger with an open look (which he buries).

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Looks like Trinec has been eliminated from the Extraliga playoffs after a 5-3 loss today (and going down 4-2 in the series).

 

No points for Jašek this game. But had 3 shots on goal and was the team's 5th highest forward in icetime.

 

EDIT: video is up available for this game, not that I'm necessarily gonna watch it myself, but for anyone interested:

http://www.hokej.cz/zapas/2522762/video

 

What's next for Jašek might be a return to the ELJ (U20) team, who have already reached the final round of their league playoffs and are awaiting the winner of the other semifinal. 

Edited March 24, 2017 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[elvis15]

Sounds likely they use him on whatever team he's available for since they've done so much to keep him. Maybe after we see him but more likely next year.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

13 hours ago, elvis15 said:

Sounds likely they use him on whatever team he's available for since they've done so much to keep him. Maybe after we see him but more likely next year.

Most likely. The ELJ Final is now set, with Plzen U20 (#2 seed in bracket) winning their series and set to face Trinec U20 (the #1 seed). Game one in on the 29th, and I'd be surprised if Jasek isn't in the lineup.

 

That would take us into April before he's done over there.

 

And anyway, he's not really the type of prospect I could see us signing to a tryout (or contract) for late season play in 2016-17.

 

It's going to be 2017-18 if/when he starts playing his first season over here.

 

So maybe he comes over for summer development camp and hopefully plays in the Young Stars tournament. That would give us a pretty good idea where he's at developmentally and how his level of play ranks against his peers in North America. 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Jasek and the Trinec U20s lose the opener in the ELJ finals, 3-2 in shootout.

 

Jasek with assists on both Trinec goals (and a miss on his shootout attempt).

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Oh Jašek, where art thou?

 

Trinec loses game two of the final by a 6-3 score. No Jašek in the lineup.

 

Not sure if injured?

 

EDIT: Pure, baseless speculation but wondering if it's time to watch the transfers wire? Injury more likely (as for why he's off the roster, given he's Trinec U20's best player) but maybe a forthcoming 2017-18 contract and end of season tryout a possibility?

 

 

Edited March 31, 2017 by SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME

[Derp...]

11 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Oh Jašek, where art thou?

 

Trinec loses game two of the final by a 6-3 score. No Jašek in the lineup.

 

Not sure if injured?

 

EDIT: Pure, baseless speculation but wondering if it's time to watch the transfers wire? Injury more likely (as for why he's off the roster, given he's Trinec U20's best player) but maybe a forthcoming 2017-18 contract and end of season tryout a possibility?

 

 

I don't think Trinec will release him until they are out. 0-2 is a big hole though. Hope he gets an ATO and starts his ELC next year if he does come over.