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AV's Coin

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Short everything

I have TD bank and  Bell (BCE) on the TSX and besides paying decent dividends both are going up in general. BCE pays a 4.55% div and is up over 7% on the year to date. 

 But yeah. In general we are seeing some declines. Might be time to move into a REIT or something.I had a 5 year love affair with CN rail that ended back in March. That stock paid over 30% annually in both 2013 and 2014.  Its down this year so I sold at the right time. Even though the companies profits this year are huge and its earning are increasing. It should be up but whatever. Reality and the market dont interact much sometimes.

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Anybody looking at grow op stocks these days...also checking out LED manufacturers.

I made about 30% on CGC after holding it for a few weeks. They all took a pretty significant tumble last week though, luckily I had a stop loss in place.

They still seem to be slowly dropping with volume way down. 

I going to give it another week or two and I might buy in again. 

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If interest rates go up do you think it would be good to sell Bell.

Also with the Keystone pipeline dead or on hold that could mean more oil shipped by rail.

Oil by rail has more to do with pricing. Most oil is being pipelined at moment, they're are using the other tons of pipelines that most Americans are to naive to know exist.

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Anybody looking at grow op stocks these days...also checking out LED manufacturers.

As long as marijuana is illegal in the US at the federal level and Canada could reverse its decisions on medical marijuana I wont be touching any stocks in that sector. The potential for a massive loss is there.  Once its stable under law I would look at it.

 As it is now there is high volatility and risk with marijuana stocks. If you REALLY know what you are doing theres money to be made. 

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On 11/16/2015, 10:19:29, jejejester said:

0.6% is a lot of money to someone like him. 

 

have you guys been paying attention to the new "fang" investing trend. 

Facebook

amazon

Netflix 

google

 

I bought one option in facebook during the summer with some leftover money. It was up 30% after their last earnings but has comedown a little over the last few days. It is now moving back towards its high around 110. My option does not expire for over a year so I will wait and see what happens.

Unfortunately I lost a lot on an apple option. The stock made it to 130 in the summer then dropped on China fears. It climber back up to around 120 on the last earnings so I sold since it was going to expire in a few months. I made a bit on a previous Apple option bought last december so overall I am even on my FANG options! (if you can include apple in that).

I might get into Amazon or Google. Not sure about netflix. I think they will have more and more competition soon.

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On 11/17/2015, 8:05:58, AV's Coin said:

 

 Not sure about netflix. I think they will have more and more competition soon.

Netflix has been expanding service very aggressively lately. They have full coverage in North, central, and South America. Working towards full penetration in Europe. While Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea are all in the pipeline. The stock has more than doubled in value in the last year so its been on a run. Its at $120 a share now. We could have bought in in 2013 at under $8 a share. Aint hindsight great?

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33 minutes ago, KFBR392 said:

Martin Shkreli (the dbag who raised the price of that drug Diaprim +5000%, only to be foiled when a rival made a generic and charged $1/pill)) had to make his dough back somewhere. So he executed a flawless short squeeze.

Take a company with a small amount of shares outstanding (3.8 million), that announces they are running out of cash and are winding down operations. Wait for short sellers to load up for a free ride to zero. Buy up 50% of the company then squeeze the crap out of them.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 11/19/2015, 2:12:19, nuckin_futz said:

Martin Shkreli (the dbag who raised the price of that drug Diaprim +5000%, only to be foiled when a rival made a generic and charged $1/pill)) had to make his dough back somewhere. So he executed a flawless short squeeze.

Take a company with a small amount of shares outstanding (3.8 million), that announces they are running out of cash and are winding down operations. Wait for short sellers to load up for a free ride to zero. Buy up 50% of the company then squeeze the crap out of them.

Has he ever made a single dollar that did not involve F'ing someone over?

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 10/21/2015 at 6:36 AM, Hugor Hill said:

What I meant was, if you think the government is using violence or coercion to get your tax money, instead of barking on online hockey forums, why don't you rise up and defend your interest?

Best performing currency in the world since 2009:

2010 - Bitcoin +3700%

2011 - Bitcoin +1500%

2012 - Bitcoin +300%

2013 - Bitcoin +5400%

2014 - USD +13% (Bitcoin -57% , the worst performing currency in the world that year)

2015 - Bitcoin +37%

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18 hours ago, CanadianLoonie said:

Best performing currency in the world since 2009:

2010 - Bitcoin +3700%

2011 - Bitcoin +1500%

2012 - Bitcoin +300%

2013 - Bitcoin +5400%

2014 - USD +13% (Bitcoin -57% , the worst performing currency in the world that year)

2015 - Bitcoin +37%

bubble.

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On October 21, 2015 at 10:33 PM, LaBamba said:

Reading you guys talk about Oil...

my eyes.  

 

This is my take on oil. 

I am currently consulting for The Korean National Oil Company on a project south of Grande Prairie harvesting liquid rich montney shale "tight oil" I have consulted for a handful of different companies in the tight oil plays. I have drilled in parts of Texas, ND, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. They are all basically the same as far as production rates and most importantly, decline rates. 

North American tight oil depletes between 40-80% within 8-18 months of initial production. 

The North American rig count is down +/- 60% from a year ago. The rig count didn't really start to decline until January 2015. If you take the depletion rates and match them with the start of the rig decline we should start to see a steeper decline in production around Jan 2016.

At the height of drilling we saw over 1600 rigs drilling for oil in the USA alone, today there is 595. You cannot maintain production with the depletion rates of tight oil with 595 rigs.

 

You hear these traders talking about new technologies like more frac sand per ft and drilling pads, with extended reach horizontals making this huge impact that will offset the rig decline, blah blah blah. It's complete garbage, those aren't new technologies and it still doesn't solve the main issue with tight oil and that is the depletion rate. There is no technologies in existence that can allow you to pump more oil longer. Because you are creating porosity artificially through fracturing, your production will only come from your furthest crack, then that's it. 1 year later you need 2 wells to replace the one that died, and increase production. 

Iran is already selling all the Oil they pump, this scare is coming a little premature. They need contracts with big oil to come in and drill then put it online. It's at least 1 year away from the date they remove the sanctions. 

 

If you can put all this together, you can see what could be on the horizon.

 

you are going to see some big seasonal builds from now till the week ending before American thanks giving. After that the inventory will draw, once Christmas is done the second wave of seasonal builds will be non existent because of the steep decline in USA oil production picking up steam around January. 

 

Buy energy before  American thanks giving. 

Forget I said anything

I can't believe production isn't falling yet. This new leg down is still going to plant the seeds for a rebound, I just have no idea when that is going to happen anymore. 

I know the wells I am involved with deplete 60% within 8 months. The fact that production hasn't taken a dive in NA defies logic. 

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