The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread

[nuckin_futz]

2 hours ago, JM_ said:

wise move imo, with interest rates creeping up. Love the idea of a development lot, the wife and I have been playing with that idea for a while. 

 

Also, wth $1100? what are you, Gandhi? 

They are going to more than creep up. With inflation running as hot as it is Central Banks are going to act and act quickly.

 

Here are some projections for rates this year..........

 

A quick Friday roundup of Fed outlooks: -Morgan Stanley: 50 bps in May & June -Citi: 50 bps in May, June, July & September -Goldman: 50 bps in May & June -Traders: 2-3 50 bps hikes this year *Obvious caveat that the next FOMC is more than a month away

 

The BOC will do exactly what the Fed does.

 

1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

 Having a million ish in disposable cash to invest once housing tanks by 30% to 50% will set you up very very well.

I don't see a 30-50% decline. The reason is there's been a tonne of wealth created since 2009. Especially in stock markets. As interest rates increase stocks become less attractive. So that money flees the stock market and needs a new home. There's 2 main places it winds up. In bonds, for the liquidity and safety. Or in real estate.

 

I think there will enough of an underlying bid in real estate especially in markets like Vancouver and Victoria that any serious price dips will brings in bidders. So unless we get a complete 'wheels off' type scenario where rates skyrocket above 10% I don't think declines of 30% are even remotely possible.

 

in 2008 Canadian real estate priced fell by 9.5%. In BC there really wasn't much of a decline. There's just a very consistent demand. Too many people want to live/invest here.

[JM_]

12 hours ago, bishopshodan said:

I would look at anywhere central Island.

Mostly because I know the areas and I am close, with resources.  I have a few trades people in the fam including myself and could keep development costs down because of that. 

 

What I would actually like to do is go in on a large parcel with some of the family but that takes some planning and fair commitment.

we were thinking about something in Ucluelet for a while but its too busy there now. 

[bishopshodan]

39 minutes ago, JM_ said:

we were thinking about something in Ucluelet for a while but its too busy there now. 

Oh yeah.

A hot spot for sure.

 

My sis is looking at something up there to Air B&B. She just put an offer in on a 2 bedroom in VIc with the same plans, right in the inner harbour.

[JM_]

24 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

Oh yeah.

A hot spot for sure.

 

My sis is looking at something up there to Air B&B. She just put an offer in on a 2 bedroom in VIc with the same plans, right in the inner harbour.

inner harbour is nice for sure. 

 

we're looking for something quiet, or if thats not available, something near a ski reseort but man its hard to find land right now thats reasonable. I think as rates go up though we'll see people trying to dump some extra assets so maybe more will open up. The other spot were looking at is around Apex Mountain.

[Warhippy]

2 hours ago, JM_ said:

inner harbour is nice for sure. 

 

we're looking for something quiet, or if thats not available, something near a ski reseort but man its hard to find land right now thats reasonable. I think as rates go up though we'll see people trying to dump some extra assets so maybe more will open up. The other spot were looking at is around Apex Mountain.

That's my stomping grounds!  

 

I'd suggest Mr Baldy in Oliver for affordability.  Apex is less than an hour away and you're still on a ski hill

[Warhippy]

News from the US

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/30/homes/us-housing-market-bubble/index.html'

 

US home prices have soared to new heights and keep on climbing, and now some researchers and economists are saying they have seen signs of a housing bubble brewing.

Home prices are rising faster than market forces would indicate they should and are becoming "unhinged from fundamentals," according to a new blog post written by researchers and economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Until recently, the possibility of a bubble wasn't widely supported. But after looking at housing markets across the US, the Fed researchers said new evidence is emerging.

"Our evidence points to abnormal US housing market behavior for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s," the researchers wrote. "Reasons for concern are clear in certain economic indicators ... which show signs that 2021 house prices appear increasingly out of step with fundamentals."

Many Americans are still scarred by the last housing crash in 2007, which was fueled by cheap credit and lax lending standards that resulted in millions of homeowners owing more on their homes than they were worth.

But this time, the economists said they are worried about a different scenario.

Just because home prices are rising wildly does not always mean housing is in a bubble. And there are lots of reasons why home prices have risen steadily over the past decade -- and shot up even more significantly in the past two years -- including supply and demand imbalances in the market, rising labor and construction costs and how high or low the interest rates are for a mortgage, the researchers pointed out.

But they said prices may be rising to a point they call "exuberance," in which prices become increasingly out of sync with the economic fundamentals underpinning the market.

 

One possible reason, they suggested, is that buyers may believe prices will continue to climb and fear they will miss out on snagging a lower price on a home now and get stuck paying more later.

This fear of missing out, or FOMO, effect can drive up prices and heighten expectations of higher prices ahead. That can create a self-fulfilling prophecy, researchers said, in which price growth can become exponential.

The consequences of housing market exuberance can include overpriced homes, investments based on distorted expectations of returns and reduced economic growth and employment.

The cycle is interrupted when policymakers intervene, spurring investors to become cautious and causing the flow of money into housing to dry up. This could cause a housing correction or possibly even a bust, according to the blog post.

The researchers recommended policy makers and market participants closely watch local markets for booms in prices in order to better respond, "before misalignments become so severe that subsequent corrections produce economic upheaval."

Bubble brewing

The behavior of homebuyers and sellers over the past two years has been anything but normal, the researchers pointed out. Prices are at record highs and continue to move higher because there has been record low inventory. Still, homebuyers keep buying. Interest rates fell to record lows during the pandemic, but that does not alone explain the housing market frenzy, they wrote.

Other factors have played a role in pushing the market into bubble territory, the Fed researchers wrote, including pandemic-related stimulus programs and Covid-19-related supply-chain disruptions and associated policy responses. The researchers specifically highlight the role of investors, who are aggressively buying up homes.

Investors now buy 33% of the homes in the US, which is a 5% larger share than the average over the past decade, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The business of ibuying -- in which a company buys a home for cash to slightly fix it up and resell it again -- is only 1.7% of the national housing market in the last quarter of 2021, according to Zillow. But in some cities, the share of homes going to ibuyers is as high as 11%.

The researchers found that as prices have risen signs of exuberance have emerged. The US housing market has been showing these signs for more than five consecutive quarters through third quarter 2021, they found.

Fed researchers also looked at the relationship between home prices and rents. They found that since 2020, the home price-to-rent ratio has rapidly skyrocketed beyond what market fundamentals can explain and began showing signs of exuberance in 2021.

Another indicator the researchers examined was the ratio of home prices to disposable income, which is closely tied to affordability. This home price-to-income ratio is increasing quickly, but not yet exuberant, the researchers said.

Silver linings

A lot was learned from the last housing crash, which has led to better early detection and warning indicators of housing bubbles, the researchers wrote. If these concerning trends continue, banks, policymakers and regulators ought to be better equipped to quickly react to avoid the most severe, negative consequences of a correction.

In addition, they wrote, there is no reason to expect any resulting correction would impact homeowners or the economy as significantly as the last housing crash. Americans are generally in better financial shape, homeowners have stronger equity positions and excessive borrowing is not as rampant as it was in the mid-2000s.

[Warhippy]

RBC is sounding the alarm on the worst ever affordability for housing in Canada

 

Housing affordability in Canada was at its worst level in 31 years at the end of 2021, according to RBC Economics, which is warning that there’s no relief in sight for the country’s already-stretched homeowners.

Almost half of median pre-tax household income (49.7 per cent) would have been required to cover mortgage payments and other costs tied to owning a home, on an aggregate basis, in Canada in the fourth quarter of last year. That was an increase of 7.5 per cent from a year earlier and almost nine percentage points higher than the average since 1985, according to a report released Wednesday.

Affordability was even more daunting for the owners of single-detached homes, which RBC estimates would have chewed up 54.6 per cent of median pre-tax household income. `

"Rapid price escalation in the early months of 2022 has already raised the bar to impossible levels for many homebuyers," wrote RBC Assistant Chief Economist Robert Hogue in the report.

"And with the Bank of Canada now in the process of hiking interest rates materially—we expect a total increase of at least 150 basis points in the coming year—ownership costs look set to spiral even higher. Worst-ever affordability levels could well ensue, putting buyers in a precarious spot."

It's the second time in as many days that an economist from one of the Big Five banks has sounded the alarm on Canada’s housing markets.

Robert Kavcic from BMO Capital Markets wrote in a report to clients Tuesday that he thinks there is a "full-scale attack on Canadian home prices" as interest rates rise and amid tax interventions by the Nova Scotia and Ontario governments.

Kavcic said in an interview Wednesday there is "real fundamental strength" driving up home prices, but the magnitude of the surge — which sent the Canadian Real Estate Association's home price index up by a record 28 per cent year-over-year in January — convinced him there is "quite a bit of froth" built on top of the basic supply and demand dynamics that are at play.

Similarly, RBC's Hogue acknowledged in his report that there are some "good reasons" why home prices have climbed, but that "the extent to which prices have appreciated clearly went beyond what solid fundamentals would suggest in many parts of the country."

Among the markets tracked by RBC, homeowners in Vancouver face the most challenging conditions, with 73.9 per cent of household income going toward servicing ownership costs in the fourth quarter, up nine per cent from a year earlier, at an aggregate level. Digging a little deeper, RBC estimates 99.7 per cent of household income would have gone toward ownership costs for a single-family detached home in Vancouver in the quarter.

The most affordable market in the country was St. John's, where RBC's aggregate affordability measure inched up 1.2 per cent from a year earlier to hit 21.8 per cent in the final three months of last year. And even though the affordability measure for Halifax was just 32.5 per cent in the quarter, Hogue wrote in his report that "affordability is under siege" in the city, which he said might be the country's hottest housing market.

The outlook for affordability is looking increasingly challenging as the Bank of Canada takes aim at inflation. Hogue cautioned in his report that homebuyers are more sensitive to rate increases than they were previously. And he estimated that if the Bank of Canada raises its main policy rate by one and a half percentage points, as RBC expects, it would drive up the housing affordability measure by more than seven percentage points.

"While income gains will provide a partial offset, it’s entirely possible RBC’s measure could spike to all-time highs in the year ahead,” he wrote.

“A shock of this magnitude would severely stress homebuyers and exert significant downward pressure on demand.”

[Warhippy]

Fears of rate hikes leading to potential correction "or worse"

 

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bank-of-canada-bmo-housing-market-forecast

 

All-time record low interest rates by the Bank of Canada intended to stimulate economic activity at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic’s dire economic impacts may have worked too well.

 

Canadian households accumulated a massive amount of excess savings during the pandemic, worth about $300 billion in total. Households then took advantage of low rates and directed at least a part of their excess savings towards buying real estate.

 

The high likelihood of forthcoming rate hikes now have the forecasters stating all signs point towards a downward trend in the housing market in both demand and prices, according to a new analysis by BMO Economics.

“We wouldn’t be at all surprised to see prices flatten out at some point next year. While there’s room for discussion around the ‘lack of supply’ narrative, the recent surge in prices is demand-driven,” reads the analysis.

“The calls for a housing crash and disorderly outcome for households have been consistently wrong for over a decade, but the latest surge in home prices could make things different this time. Look for housing to cool in line with the pace of rate hikes. However, if policy rates climb above prior cycle highs, we’d be in uncharted territory and could be in for a correction or worse.”

In the previous cycle between 2017 and 2019, when Bank of Canada policy rates jumped from 0.50% to 1.75%, the average household interest rate rose from 3.72% to 4.37%. If this rate returns to 1.7% and shifts the average household interest rate back to 4.37%, the additional interest cost will total about $27.

Between 2017 and 2018, Bank of Canada increased its policy rate three times — 0.75%, 1%, 1.25%, 1.5%, and then 1.75%. This rate increase cycle dampened the pace of home price increases, along with new interventionist measures by governments through taxes to slow down the pace of demand. This pushed the annual increase in home prices from the high teens double-digit percentages to almost 0%.

In response to COVID-19, the policy rate of Bank of Canada went down three times in March 2020 — 1.25%, 0.75%, and then the historic low of 0.25%.

On March 2, 2022, Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 0.5%, marking the first time the rate was increased since 2018.

 

With more increases expected this year and possibly into 2023, analysts with BMO state the potential for home price declines is higher this cycle as many cities have seen “prices go parabolic” recently. However, they add that for this reason, the Bank of Canada is not expected to overdo its rate increases.

Homeowner equity is currently at a record high of 76.5%, which means “anyone who bought a home before the latest run-up [in prices] should have a decent amount of equity cushion if prices drop.”

Household debt has risen in recent months, alongside the housing boom. The debt-to-income ratio has since returned to the highs of 2018-2019, now that pandemic government support programs have ended.

“Over the past few decades, interest rates have been falling consistently. Policy rates have seen lower highs and lower lows, and the same can be said about term mortgage rates. All of that has led to persistently rising household debt burdens,” continues the BMO Economics analysis.

 

“The warnings on the housing market and household debt will no doubt multiply in the weeks and months ahead as the Bank of Canada pushes rates higher.” But debt growth slowed in 2018 when interest rates increased, which is expected to repeat to an extent for the current cycle.

Earlier this year, a separate analysis by UK-based international research group Oxford Economics issued a forecast that predicted a Canadian home price drop of 24% between Fall 2022 and Summer 2024.

At the end of 2021, Canadian home prices were 19% above the borrowing capacity of median-income households in Canada. And so far in 2022, this upward unsustainable trend has continued, with home prices by Summer 2022 expected to reach a level that is 38% higher than what most borrowers can afford.

With all that said, strong, record-breaking immigration will be a steady source of demand for housing, especially in the heated markets of British Columbia and Ontario, the main destinations for new immigrants.

[Warhippy]

Oxford study suggests potential correction of up to 24% in Canadian housing markets

 

If the forecast of Oxford Economics holds true, home prices in Canada could fall significantly over the next two years, essentially erasing much of the skyrocketing gains made throughout the pandemic to date.

 

A recent analysis by the UK-based international research group states home prices could drop by 24% between Fall 2022 and Summer 2024.

 

The accumulated gains made over the last few years — the years leading up to the pandemic, and especially during the pandemic — have not been sustainable and have essentially created bubble-like conditions, but these are still dissimilar to the harsh conditions that led to the crash in the US housing market in the late 2000s.

As of the end of 2021, Canadian home prices were 19% above the borrowing capacity of median-income households in Canada. And so far in 2022, this upward unsustainable trend has continued, with home prices by Summer 2022 expected to reach a level that is 38% higher than what most borrowers can afford.

Last month’s national housing market update by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the country’s average home price was up by 21% year-over-year, hitting a new record of $748,450.

“We believe this will cause the housing market to reach a breaking point, and crash under the weight of its own success before year end,” reads the report.

Canadian home prices expected to fall 24% by 2024, realgin with household borrowing capacity by 2028. (Oxford Economics)

Other factors that are driving Oxford Economics’ forecast of a home price downturn include the continued expectation that the Bank of Canada (BOC) will raise interest rates. This began early in March 2022, when the BOC raised its key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, the first time the bank has increased its rate since 2018.

Oxford believes the key interest rate will be increased three more times within the remainder of 2022, followed by more incremental increases through 2024 that will bring the rate to 2% by Summer 2024. Fixed-rate, five-year mortgage rates are forecast to go up by about one percentage point to 4.25% by the end of 2020 and eventually reach a ceiling of up to 5% by 2023.

All of this has the effect of shrinking the borrowing capacity of households, which would put a downward pressure on demand.

 

Other factors considered by the analysis include the federal government’s forthcoming new interventionist policies on housing demand, specifically the tax on house flipping, a ban on foreign home ownership, and a tax on vacant homes owned by non-residents.

But even with a 24% drop, home prices in Canada would still be about 15% higher than before the pandemic, and it would lead to healthier market conditions that pair home prices closer to the reality of what Canadians can afford. Currently, this kind of drop is not expected to lead to a recession.

But the analysis also outlines a possible worst-case scenario of a 40% home price drop over the same period, resulting in a crash similar to what the US housing market experienced in 2008. They emphasize that while this scenario is a possibility that would generate conditions for a potential financial crisis, it is highly unlikely.

“The fallout from a housing crash would look a lot like the US housing meltdown during the global financial crisis, despite a minimal role for subprime lending in Canada,” reads the report.

 

The forecast currently expects home prices to be in better alignment with the borrowing capacity of households by 2028, but the impact is likely to be uneven across the country. It should also be noted that Canada’s ambitious immigration targets — welcoming over 1.2 million immigrants over three years — are beginning to contribute to the country’s tight housing market, especially in the major urban centres of Vancouver and Toronto.

[Warhippy]

16 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

I don't see a 30-50% decline. The reason is there's been a tonne of wealth created since 2009. Especially in stock markets. As interest rates increase stocks become less attractive. So that money flees the stock market and needs a new home. There's 2 main places it winds up. In bonds, for the liquidity and safety. Or in real estate.

 

I think there will enough of an underlying bid in real estate especially in markets like Vancouver and Victoria that any serious price dips will brings in bidders. So unless we get a complete 'wheels off' type scenario where rates skyrocket above 10% I don't think declines of 30% are even remotely possible.

 

in 2008 Canadian real estate priced fell by 9.5%. In BC there really wasn't much of a decline. There's just a very consistent demand. Too many people want to live/invest here.

In certain areas I do not see a 30% reduction.  Because they would be high value areas or areas where supply is simply non existent with people demanding to live there.  Areas like the Okanagan maybe a 10% correction.  

 

But even IF the nation as a whole sees 30%, it is still insanely over valued and unaffordable for the majority.

 

I firmly believe; in my opinion only, that there are way to many variables in play here for things to not correct.  From affordability.  Consumer and personal debt.  Supply chain issues, endless printing of $$$ and an outright lack of supply.

 

I speak with a number of old buddies who are still in trades and many of them are worried as general contractors because their costs have increased by 30% alone since September.  My quoted cost for a new sliding patio door, new door (left swing) and a few new windows was only $7000 ish in September and is/was now $12000 ish as of 2 weeks ago.  Almost none of that is an increase in labour costs.

 

With cities forcing "infill" and "cluster housing" on to what was formerly single residence areas for duplexes etc.  These costs will increase as well.  A duplex used to be an affordable way to enter the market.  Look at what a duplex is now worth in penticton 

 

https://www.realtor.ca/map#view=list&Sort=6-D&GeoIds=g30_c2fcx47u&GeoName=Penticton%2C BC&PropertyTypeGroupID=1&PropertySearchTypeId=1&TransactionTypeId=2&PriceMin=250000&PriceMax=800000&BedRange=2-0&BathRange=1-0&BuildingTypeId=2&Currency=CAD

 

Only 2 of those are new.  Anything being built right now without cost protection or pre purchased materials will be almost 30% higher.  An average of $665k for a 3 bedroom 1100 sq ft duplex in a town with a median income of only $2500 is insane.

 

I only do the doom and gloom thing because I can't see this as being sustainable is all

Edited April 1, 2022 by Warhippy

[nuckin_futz]

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

In certain areas I do not see a 30% reduction.  Because they would be high value areas or areas where supply is simply non existent with people demanding to live there.  Areas like the Okanagan maybe a 10% correction.  

 

But even IF the nation as a whole sees 30%, it is still insanely over valued and unaffordable for the majority.

Did a big reply in the inflation thread so I'll just lightly touch on a few things here. The price is whatever the market will bear. If houses are selling for a million then in that moment they are worth a million.

 

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

 

I firmly believe; in my opinion only, that there are way to many variables in play here for things to not correct.  From affordability.  Consumer and personal debt.  Supply chain issues, endless printing of $$$ and an outright lack of supply.

 

I speak with a number of old buddies who are still in trades and many of them are worried as general contractors because their costs have increased by 30% alone since September.  My quoted cost for a new sliding patio door, new door (left swing) and a few new windows was only $7000 ish in September and is/was now $12000 ish as of 2 weeks ago.  Almost none of that is an increase in labour costs.

Prices have 2 ways of correcting. 1) the price of that asset can drop 2) time can catch up to price. If housing went flat for a number of years time would catch up to price and it would no longer be considered over valued. That million dollar home that seems like a rip off might seem like a good deal in 3 years if it's still $1 million.

 

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

 

With cities forcing "infill" and "cluster housing" on to what was formerly single residence areas for duplexes etc.  These costs will increase as well.  A duplex used to be an affordable way to enter the market.  Look at what a duplex is now worth in penticton 

 

https://www.realtor.ca/map#view=list&Sort=6-D&GeoIds=g30_c2fcx47u&GeoName=Penticton%2C BC&PropertyTypeGroupID=1&PropertySearchTypeId=1&TransactionTypeId=2&PriceMin=250000&PriceMax=800000&BedRange=2-0&BathRange=1-0&BuildingTypeId=2&Currency=CAD

 

Only 2 of those are new.  Anything being built right now without cost protection or pre purchased materials will be almost 30% higher.  An average of $665k for a 3 bedroom 1100 sq ft duplex in a town with a median income of only $2500 is insane.

 

I only do the doom and gloom thing because I can't see this as being sustainable is all

You cannot build a house without lumber and copper. Look at what the price of lumber has done in 2 years. The futures contract has gone from about $300 to about $980. In the meanwhile it actually got as high as $1700. The copper contract was roughly $2.75 now it's $4.75. So as you pointed out the input costs have gone nuts.

 

I understand your doom and gloom I just don't see it around the corner. But that beast will rear it's head one day and the further things inflate the bigger the burst eventually.

 

As for insane prices I am sure you have seen this site before but it's a fun game. Mind you this is based on housing prices in 2010 so add on 12 years of increases.

 

https://www.crackshackormansion.com/

Edited April 1, 2022 by nuckin_futz

[Warhippy]

15 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

You cannot build a house without lumber and copper. Look at what the price of lumber has done in 2 years. The futures contract has gone from about $300 to about $980. In the meanwhile it actually got as high as $1700. The copper contract was roughly $2.75 now it's $4.75. So as you pointed out the input costs have gone nuts.

 

I understand your doom and gloom I just don't see it around the corner. But that beast will rear it's head one day and the further things inflate the bigger the burst eventually.

 

As for insane prices I am sure you have seen this site before but it's a fun game. Mind you this is based on housing prices in 2010 so add on 12 years of increases.

 

https://www.crackshackormansion.com/

Those prices will only increase with what's happening in China, with food, fertilizer, fuel.  30% since September, with another 30% not even remotely out of the question.  We are holding off on all of our renos.  did the back yard and are just holding.  While I try to convince the wife that selling and holding the cash isn't the worst idea 

 

I again, just can not see how it is sustainable to see such massive increases.  We agree, it's what the market will bare.  Ok.  but what happens when the market now dictates the pace and price because it's out of control?  What happens when people are forced without choice; to buy in because the option is homelessness?

 

For me this again all comes down to the person, consumer.  I no longer believe it is what the market will bare, but what the market will demand.

 

That game is stupidly addicting and I am shockingly good at it.  No...reason why 

[JM_]

4 hours ago, Warhippy said:

That's my stomping grounds!  

 

I'd suggest Mr Baldy in Oliver for affordability.  Apex is less than an hour away and you're still on a ski hill

we like Oliver and Osoyoos too. 

 

Its funny, I saw a lot on Baldy last year for $50k and just about pulled the trigger sight unseen. 

 

I think there's a small nordic club about 1/2 way up between Oliver and Baldy, which would work for us. 

[Warhippy]

48 minutes ago, JM_ said:

we like Oliver and Osoyoos too. 

 

Its funny, I saw a lot on Baldy last year for $50k and just about pulled the trigger sight unseen. 

 

I think there's a small nordic club about 1/2 way up between Oliver and Baldy, which would work for us. 

You'd be right.  Apex lots, places start at $400k now.  I always suggest Baldy for cost.

[JM_]

7 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

You'd be right.  Apex lots, places start at $400k now.  I always suggest Baldy for cost.

the first time we went up to check out Baldy, we went via the Osoyoos side and went past that weird encampment, kind of freaked my wife out on the place. 

 

The hill looks fun tho. I would really enjoy actually building a cabin up there (minus the septic and foundation, that I'm happy to pay someone else to do).

 

[Warhippy]

20 minutes ago, JM_ said:

the first time we went up to check out Baldy, we went via the Osoyoos side and went past that weird encampment, kind of freaked my wife out on the place. 

 

The hill looks fun tho. I would really enjoy actually building a cabin up there (minus the septic and foundation, that I'm happy to pay someone else to do).

 

Baldy has lines laid out from around 1996 that were never built for up to a dozen new runs.  New ownership has the money and grids laid out so Baldy is an investment for sure.

 

Not a super challenging hill but decent in its own way and anything bought there now is going to be a great investment

[nuckin_futz]

@Warhippy got some real estate porn for ya.

Canada to announce ban on foreign purchases of residential real estate for two years - report

• The Canadian budget is due on Friday
•  

The air is coming out of the Canadian housing bubble.

 

CTV reports that tomorrow's Canadian federal budget will include a provision that bans foreigners from buying Canadian housing for two years. It will apply to condos, apartments, and single residential units.

 

The timing is a classic case of closing the barn door after the horses have left. The latest Toronto housing data showed a quick cooling of the market in March as interest rates rose.

I was on BNNBloomberg last month saying that we were finally at the moment where the Canadian housing bubble was about to burst and this certainly adds to my conviction.

 

The question now is whether it will be a soft or hard landing. These measures from the Federal government are being combined with provincial measures and BOC hikes to create a perfect storm in a market that was already way out of line.

 

Even with this fresh declines, Toronto prices are up 18% y/y and the median price of a detached home is $1.6m.

 

As for the broader picture around the Canadian budget, it will be a complicated one but with windfall taxes reportedly coming for Canadian banks and measures like this, risks for the Canadian dollar are negative.

Edited April 6, 2022 by nuckin_futz

[taxi]

1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said:

@Warhippy got some real estate porn for ya.

Canada to announce ban on foreign purchases of residential real estate for two years - report

• The Canadian budget is due on Friday
•  

The air is coming out of the Canadian housing bubble.

 

CTV reports that tomorrow's Canadian federal budget will include a provision that bans foreigners from buying Canadian housing for two years. It will apply to condos, apartments, and single residential units.

 

The timing is a classic case of closing the barn door after the horses have left. The latest Toronto housing data showed a quick cooling of the market in March as interest rates rose.

I was on BNNBloomberg last month saying that we were finally at the moment where the Canadian housing bubble was about to burst and this certainly adds to my conviction.

 

The question now is whether it will be a soft or hard landing. These measures from the Federal government are being combined with provincial measures and BOC hikes to create a perfect storm in a market that was already way out of line.

 

Even with this fresh declines, Toronto prices are up 18% y/y and the median price of a detached home is $1.6m.

 

As for the broader picture around the Canadian budget, it will be a complicated one but with windfall taxes reportedly coming for Canadian banks and measures like this, risks for the Canadian dollar are negative.

Quote

The foreign buyers ban will apply to condos, apartments, and single residential units. Permanent residents, foreign workers, and students will be excluded from this new measure. Foreigners who are purchasing their primary residence here in Canada will be exempt.

 

Pretty lame ban. Apparently it's a necessity for students to be allowed to purchase million dollar properties. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by taxi

[Warhippy]

2 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

@Warhippy got some real estate porn for ya.

Canada to announce ban on foreign purchases of residential real estate for two years - report

• The Canadian budget is due on Friday
•  

The air is coming out of the Canadian housing bubble.

 

CTV reports that tomorrow's Canadian federal budget will include a provision that bans foreigners from buying Canadian housing for two years. It will apply to condos, apartments, and single residential units.

 

The timing is a classic case of closing the barn door after the horses have left. The latest Toronto housing data showed a quick cooling of the market in March as interest rates rose.

I was on BNNBloomberg last month saying that we were finally at the moment where the Canadian housing bubble was about to burst and this certainly adds to my conviction.

 

The question now is whether it will be a soft or hard landing. These measures from the Federal government are being combined with provincial measures and BOC hikes to create a perfect storm in a market that was already way out of line.

 

Even with this fresh declines, Toronto prices are up 18% y/y and the median price of a detached home is $1.6m.

 

As for the broader picture around the Canadian budget, it will be a complicated one but with windfall taxes reportedly coming for Canadian banks and measures like this, risks for the Canadian dollar are negative.

And here comes the NAFTA and Canada/China trade FIPA challenges.

 

It's to little to late after the interest hikes started, but I'm genuinely happy the NDP committed to this as promised once their deal with the libs was signed.  Once it crashes, protecting Canadians and Canadian property/farms from foreign run ups will be essential

Edited April 6, 2022 by Warhippy

[JM_]

51 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

And here comes the NAFTA and Canada/China trade FIPA challenges.

 

It's to little to late after the interest hikes started, but I'm genuinely happy the NDP committed to this as promised once their deal with the libs was signed.  Once it crashes, protecting Canadians and Canadian property/farms from foreign run ups will be essential

it'll be interesting to see what this does to people who are relying on home equity for retirement.