JM_ Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, LesPaul81 said: Don't worry, we'll be one provincial health authority similar to Alberta in the coming years. It's already underway..... I hope so. We can't afford the bloated senior mgmt in BC, that money is needed on the front lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johngould21 Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 1 hour ago, WeneedLumme said: Lenders insist on a large proportion of presales as a prerequisite for the developer to get a construction mortgage. That is not going to change any time in the near future. Selling off entire floors to an offshore buyer is not something that happens any more, with the Foreign Buyers Tax and Vacancy Tax in place and the cancellation of the Business Immigration Program rules which allowed wealthy people to gain Permanent Resident Status just for being wealthy. Even if Trudeau's plan to prohibit foreign home buyers does not materialize, foreign buying of homes has dropped dramatically, largely due to the abovementioned reasons, and is not really a current issue in our real estate market. So does this mean that the banks don't think the units are going to sell? In a market like the Lower Mainland, or in the entire Country, which has a housing shortage? This turns out to be a banking issue if that's the case, or are some of these developers funding one development to pay for another? I'm thinking this is a bigger issue than the problem in front of us, and others trying to get into the market. As to your other reply, I did think that loophole was closed as far as off shore buyers are concerned. But, I've heard it still goes on, at least in buying detached properties and single units in Condos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeneedLumme Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 2 hours ago, johngould21 said: So does this mean that the banks don't think the units are going to sell? In a market like the Lower Mainland, or in the entire Country, which has a housing shortage? This turns out to be a banking issue if that's the case, or are some of these developers funding one development to pay for another? I'm thinking this is a bigger issue than the problem in front of us, and others trying to get into the market. As to your other reply, I did think that loophole was closed as far as off shore buyers are concerned. But, I've heard it still goes on, at least in buying detached properties and single units in Condos. Developers generally don't have the resources to buy the land and build without borrowing substantial amounts of money. The banks insist on presales to mitigate the risk, both for themselves and for the developer. There is a shortage right NOW, but all booms/shortages eventually come to an end. The recent increase in interest rates has already slowed the market substantially, and the increases aren't over yet. Large projects take at least several years between finding the land and delivering completed product. In that time the market can change dramatically. Ask anyone who bought in early 1981 or 1995 or 2008 about how long it was until they were above water again. That's why banks insist on presales, because if the market is down sharply when the project completes, without presales the developer is bankrupt and the bank takes a big loss on their loan. In early 2009 I had a girlfriend who had a $500k presale she had to complete on. She was willing to walk away from her $100k deposit, but the developer said no way, you have to complete, because the market had fallen more than 100k. A good reason not to buy a presale. With respect to offshore buyers, they are currently not prohibited from buying our real estate, it just isn't very appealing to them right now. This is due to various factors, such as the excessive price levels, foreign buyer and vacancy taxes, lack of opportunity to occupy the property, a very bad real estate market in China, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johngould21 Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 12 hours ago, WeneedLumme said: Developers generally don't have the resources to buy the land and build without borrowing substantial amounts of money. The banks insist on presales to mitigate the risk, both for themselves and for the developer. There is a shortage right NOW, but all booms/shortages eventually come to an end. The recent increase in interest rates has already slowed the market substantially, and the increases aren't over yet. Large projects take at least several years between finding the land and delivering completed product. In that time the market can change dramatically. Ask anyone who bought in early 1981 or 1995 or 2008 about how long it was until they were above water again. That's why banks insist on presales, because if the market is down sharply when the project completes, without presales the developer is bankrupt and the bank takes a big loss on their loan. In early 2009 I had a girlfriend who had a $500k presale she had to complete on. She was willing to walk away from her $100k deposit, but the developer said no way, you have to complete, because the market had fallen more than 100k. A good reason not to buy a presale. With respect to offshore buyers, they are currently not prohibited from buying our real estate, it just isn't very appealing to them right now. This is due to various factors, such as the excessive price levels, foreign buyer and vacancy taxes, lack of opportunity to occupy the property, a very bad real estate market in China, etc. Which is probably now worth close to $1M. I agree with you totally on these presales. A side note to this thread. I live in a very high market area of Burnaby, and every day I comment on the number of homes that sit empty. These people aren't on vacation, they are sitting on real estate with values of $3 plus Million. Many are unkept, weeds, grass not mowed, shutters closed. We have a housing crisis in this region because of our proximity to SFU, and a shortage of rental homes. Although, the rent would be well over $6K per month for one of these monsters, it would at least help with the housing shortage. We went up into the Clark Drive area of Coquitlam yesterday, it seems every block has a new development being built, completed, or land assembled to build. This market isn't slowing in my opinion at all. We bought our first home in 1976, with an interest rate of 12 1/8 %, locked in for 5 years. In the next few years the rates went up to as high as 21%. We sold in '86, and bought our present home with an interest rate of 10%. As it stands now, we wouldn't qualify for a mortgage in this market, or in the OK market, if we begged, or stole to get into a home. We both had good paying jobs, for the time, but, not for the present day cost to qualify. I feel very sorry for many of the young people that are trying, but, more has to be done. Not just by Government either. Banks, realtors, developers, they've all got a share in this debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 Posted this in the Inflation thread but might as well dump it in here too............. Why the Bank of Canada might hit the brakes sooner rather than later The Bank of Canada decision is on Wednesday The Bank of Canada decision is on Wednesday and a 50 basis point hike is fully priced in. CIBC thinks the market is right with 88% implied odds of another 50 bps hike on July 13 but then the BOC will be at 2.00% and won't get to the 2.78% implied by the OIS market by year end. That's because the housing market is rapidly slowing. "Large excess demand in Canada is much more concentrated in one area — housing. That also just happens to be the area of the economy that is the most sensitive to interest rate increases, and an area that recent home resale data suggests is already starting to slow from the 'exceptionally high' levels that the Bank of Canada described in its last policy statement." They expect the BOC and Macklem to sound hawkish on Wednesday so there's no trade in fading CAD strength yet but will be watching commentary on housing closely. "Any admission that the housing market is already responding to higher interest rates should also be seen as an admission that excess demand is about to become less excessive. That is one of the key reasons why we think that, after another 50bp hike in July, the pace of hikes will slow down, and the Bank won’t need to take rates any higher than the 2.5% mid-point of its neutral band.” If/when the Bank of Canada disconnects from Fed rate hikes, there's potential downside in the loonie. I think we would be seeing that already if not for the incredible pricing in oil and gas; but that's something that looks increasingly likely to continue. I spoke with BNNBloomberg yesterday about the Canadian dollar and Bank of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeneedLumme Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, johngould21 said: We went up into the Clark Drive area of Coquitlam yesterday, it seems every block has a new development being built, completed, or land assembled to build. This market isn't slowing in my opinion at all. You would need to dig a little bit deeper than just going for a drive to gauge the change in the strength of the market. If you really want to know how strong the market is, ask someone who is currently active (attempting to buy or sell) in the market, or any realtor. As I mentioned, the projects you see take years to finish. When the market slows down, as it already has, they continue building, but that doesn't mean that the demand for the homes is still as high as it was when they bought/assembled the land. The real estate market is extremely interest rate sensitive, and has been driven by the "emergency low" interest rates the BoC had in place for the last couple of years, but that is over now. Rates have risen significantly and will continue to rise for a while, substantially reducing buyers' purchasing power. I guarantee that within a couple of months the slowing of the market will be obvious, even to just a drive-by glance. The indicators to look for will be more "for sale" signs, fewer "just sold" signs and flyers, and more incentives offered/advertised by sellers/developers. Edited May 31, 2022 by WeneedLumme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 Sales are down 35% year over year. Prices are down 2% from May to June this year. With the Bank of Canada looking to increase its rate by .75% this month, look for sales to plunge even further, increasing supply and lowering prices further. I see a nasty correction in the works here. Buyers can't afford to buy at these prices with these interest rates. Should be an interesting summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrJockitch Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: Sales are down 35% year over year. Prices are down 2% from May to June this year. With the Bank of Canada looking to increase its rate by .75% this month, look for sales to plunge even further, increasing supply and lowering prices further. I see a nasty correction in the works here. Buyers can't afford to buy at these prices with these interest rates. Should be an interesting summer... Good, keep plunging. I would love to move back. I need prices to plunge much more. I am only a Doctor, I can’t afford Vancouver housing prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 12 hours ago, DrJockitch said: Good, keep plunging. I would love to move back. I need prices to plunge much more. I am only a Doctor, I can’t afford Vancouver housing prices. You picked the wrong profession. You should have been a hockey player. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrJockitch Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: You picked the wrong profession. You should have been a hockey player. I have the build but that is it. They need me, 6’3” 210 right shot D. Too bad I suck and am old. Edited July 6, 2022 by DrJockitch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Arrogant Worms Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 (edited) 21 hours ago, DrJockitch said: Good, keep plunging. I would love to move back. I need prices to plunge much more. I am only a Doctor, I can’t afford Vancouver housing prices. I live in the mid island.....my Doctor retired last Sept (same age as I am). Luckily he was able to sell his practice to a young Doctor who is fantastic or I would not have one any longer. Edited July 7, 2022 by The Arrogant Worms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeneedLumme Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 On 7/5/2022 at 8:31 PM, Elias Pettersson said: Sales are down 35% year over year. Prices are down 2% from May to June this year. With the Bank of Canada looking to increase its rate by .75% this month, look for sales to plunge even further, increasing supply and lowering prices further. I see a nasty correction in the works here. Buyers can't afford to buy at these prices with these interest rates. Should be an interesting summer... I was just chatting with a former colleague who is still in real estate. He has had recent sales that were arranged in the spring and just completed now that are worth 10 to 15% less than the selling price. The market peaked around February and prices have been sliding since, as rising mortgage rates choke off demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBH1926 Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Saw pre sale for building being ready in 2029. Unless the year was a typo, you really have to be stupid to buy something that’s not ready for another 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 9 hours ago, CBH1926 said: Saw pre sale for building being ready in 2029. Unless the year was a typo, you really have to be stupid to buy something that’s not ready for another 7 years. unless its an investment and the plan is to flip the consignment. Where was the building, was it one of the new luxury beasts planned for downtown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBH1926 Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 (edited) 14 hours ago, JM_ said: unless its an investment and the plan is to flip the consignment. Where was the building, was it one of the new luxury beasts planned for downtown? I tried looking it up again, but couldn’t find it. I think it was in West Van but I am not 100% sure. Edited July 8, 2022 by CBH1926 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted July 8, 2022 Share Posted July 8, 2022 7 hours ago, CBH1926 said: I tried looking it up again, but couldn’t find it. I think it was in West Van but I am not 100% sure. ah - it could be the developments happening at the base of Cypress mountain, there's a lot of Uber-expensive developments happening there that won't be occupied for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/province-dismisses-seven-members-of-b-c-housing-board-after-external-review/ar-AAZoBbu?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=ba6c17b325c64518b507891d0cd3b2f3 The B.C. government announced late Friday significant changes to the B.C. Housing board following an external review. Housing Minister David Eby said effective immediately the board is solely comprised of Allan Seckel (chair) and recently appointed board members Jill Kot, Sheila Taylor, Mark Sieben and Russ Jones. Eby did not say why the board’s other seven members were dismissed just only that the decision was made following an external review conducted by Ernst and Young. The review was initiated by the B.C. government in 2021 to ensure that B.C. Housing can deliver its expanded budget and mandate following its $7-billion investment in affordable housing over 10 years, according to a B.C. government statement. The report, released June 30, made 26 findings and 44 recommendations for potential improvements to BC Housing’s operations, including the need for greater clarity in governance roles, structures and processes, as well as more detailed policy direction on program outcomes and greater collaboration between government and B.C. Housing. The remaining board members announced in June 2022 will begin their appointments on July 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 (edited) Sales are way down. But also listings are down as sellers start to decide to hold ....and rent Rent rates up. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-rent-report-july-record-2022 No mercy for those trying to get ahead. Inventory, we need more inventory. Edited July 16, 2022 by bishopshodan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 8 hours ago, bishopshodan said: Sales are way down. But also listings are down as sellers start to decide to hold ....and rent Rent rates up. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-rent-report-july-record-2022 No mercy for those trying to get ahead. Inventory, we need more inventory. Inventory levels will take years to increase enough to make a difference. Too much red tape for developers and the municipalities are too slow in handing out building permits. Right now developers are starting to add on incentives to their presales, so even though there is little inventory sales have still plunged dramatically. I would say this last round of rate increases have caused alot of panic right now for buyers. The next round coming in September will be even worse. Inventory levels for rentals are at an all time low, causing rents to soar. The cost of living in Vancouver is getting out of control. With food prices and gasoline shooting through the roof, with interest rates rising at an astronomical rate affecting all homeowners in variable rate mortgages, and with inflation rising at a historical rate with no end in sight this is all a perfect storm for an upcoming recession of epic proportions. There is no way of getting out of it either. Like a Hurricane, it cannot be stopped. I wonder how it is all going to look like when the Hurricane finally passes through town. Will any buildings still be left standing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammertime Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 Wow surprised this thread is still open. What we need is more Sikh temples to feed the masses and full blown communism. Heaps of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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