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Making a case for a 2017-2018 playoff berth


Hortankin

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4 minutes ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

Meh. Being a lottery team for one more season doesn't make us The Oilers.

It very well could be.. Bo only had 1 winning season thus far, do we need our future captain bring used to losing? We want a winning environment.

 

Remember Yakupov was a clear cut #1.. remember Boeser fell to us at 23 when we over achieved and made the playoffs? Is it really worth it to tank if there is no McDavid or Matthews?

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Just now, Hortankin said:

It very well could be.. Bo only had 1 winning season thus far, do we need our future captain being the norm for him? We want a winning environment.

 

Remember Yakupov was a clear cut #1.. remember Boeser fell to us at 23 when we over achieved and made the playoffs? Is it really worth it to tank if there is no McDavid or Matthews?

From everything I've heard, Dahlin could very well be the D equivalent of one of those guys....Well, Matthews anyway.

 

As it sits right now, our D pool is pretty shallow, with only Juolevi and maybe Brisebois and legitimate blue chippers. We need one of the top Dmen in next years draft, even if it isn't Dahlin, especially considering how forward-heavy Benning went with this years draft. 

 

Yes, it's conceivable that we find the Dman we need in the middle/lower part of the 1st rd, but it's improbable at best. Considering that we're likely going to be a lottery team again, I think it's time to embrace it....at least for this upcoming season.

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24 minutes ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

Splitting hairs.

 

In order to step into the role that you're suggesting, he would have to earn that level of trust from Green and co, which he certainly hasn't done thus far.

 

At the end of the day, a player has to show enough to earn their spot on the main club, and Virtanen hasn't even come close to doing that.

 

 

Not splitting hairs at all.

 

And two fallacies underlying your assumptions.

First is that you can foretell the future - your posts make claims about what you allege he hasn't done  in the past - but have nothing really to do with next season or the possibilities.

The other fallacy is that you can speak for Green - or pretend to know what level of trust he has in Virtanen -  let alone how much he will have next year.  The other poster is talking about possibilities - you're pretending to know things you simply don't.  I'm not sure I consider his opinion less laughable than yours.

 

I also think you're overlooking something fairly fundamental - this team isn't going to abandon it's investment in Virtanen.  They invested a top 10 pick in him for a number of reasons.  They may send him to the AHL for another year of development - a very distinct possibility - or they may consider him ready to make the next step - and moreover, recognize this as another transition season where it might actually be as good for his development for him to have the opportunity to play in a role that he probably fits as well as anyone else in the system - one that his confidence could really develop in.  It will come down to something fairly unpredictable at this point - how well he competes in September.  You don't really know the answer to than any more than anyone else here.

 

I personally think he would fit a key piece of their forward puzzle very well.   As it stands, Granlund might be the best bet to be the Sedins' winger again - and he was good there last year - but is he or that really ideal?  Granlund was also a great fixture on the matchup/shutdown line last year when he was with Eriksson and Sutter.  Where the roster spots fall is anything but clear at this point.

 

If Virtanen did what was expected of him last year, and works hard this summer, I personally would be quite happy to see something like this:

 

Baertschi Horvat Boeser

Sedin Sedin Virtanen

Granlund Sutter Eriksson

Gaunce Gagner Goldobin

 

That leaves guys like Dorsett (health?), Chaput, Burmistrov, Rodin, Dahlen, etc on the edge/outside of the top 12 forward spots - and who knows what will emerge - but if there is a better big bodied, hard areas, forechecking, cycling, right handed shot than Virtanen to play with the Sedins I'm not sure who that is.

 

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I think the Canucks are heading in the right direction lately although I'm not convinced they are ready for prime time currently.


While there's a chance of making the playoffs next season, I think it's unlikely.  I see them likely to finish somewhere in the 20th-30th spot in the league with about a 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs.  In order to make the post season, luck on the injuries front would have to be much better than the last several seasons, goal tending would have to at least be as good as last year and team defence would need to be more solid at reducing chances against.  In a way, injuries are tied to better team defence since the best two way players are usually starting roster players.


The OP made some good points about a number of positive things to look forward to next season.  I'll recap the ones I think are important:
 

  • Rodin might be healthy, which would provide more offense
  • Boeser could have a full season and could be a Calder candidate
  • MDZ can actually handle power play minutes.
  • Granlund, Baertschi and Horvat are a year older and should be able to play even more confidently this year.
  • Hutton should be over the sophomore slump (but Stecher will be facing that possibility)
  • Gudbranson should be healthy and we'll see what he's really worth this year.
  • Eriksson should have a better year.  We hope.....
  • A whole lot of depth on the forward lines will be down in the AHL or in the press box.
  • Gagne provides a roster player who can also play C if needed.

On the flip side of the coin, we have to consider the following:

  • No star goalie any more.  The team has to win it as a team because Miller isn't there to bail them out.
  • Tryamkin and Sbisa are gone from the back end so not as much physical presence there any more which will put a lot of pressure on Gudbranson.
  • Sedins and Edler are another year older.
  • Depth on defence is pretty sketchy.  Hopefully someone in the AHL is ready to step up when needed.
  • Last season was a disaster after Christmas.  Has much really changed?

All in all, it's not completely discouraging.  I'll be watching and cheering no matter which way this one turns out just like I've been doing since the Canucks came to the league.  If we make the playoffs, it's a nice way to wrap up a career for the Sedins.  If we don't, there's still a shot at the draft lottery, right?  I see better years ahead - I'm just not convinced it's this year and with a strong group of first round picks available this coming draft, it's OK.

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It would be super nice for coach Green team to open season 5-0 .

Having said that,

-goaltending

-defence and 

5 on 5 scoring come to mind.

Somehow reaching a playoff spot this season seems a bit unrealistic  an premature.

  One can only cheer on the development of thissomewhat younger team as they evolve.

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51 minutes ago, oldnews said:

And two fallacies underlying your assumptions.

First is that you can foretell the future - your posts make claims about what you allege he hasn't done  in the past - but have nothing really to do with next season or the possibilities.

Can't tell the future. Just going by his "body of work" since being drafted, which is pretty piss poor for a top ten pick, however you may want to twist it.

 

My this logic, Chaput could net 40 goals next season. How do we know that he won't? All we can do is make educated guesses based on the players body of work thus far.

 

52 minutes ago, oldnews said:

The other fallacy is that you can speak for Green - or pretend to know what level of trust he has in Virtanen -  let alone how much he will have next year.  The other poster is talking about possibilities - you're pretending to know things you simply don't.  I'm not sure I consider his opinion less laughable than yours.

Using that logic, we can't assume anything about Green at all. Maybe the twins don't make the team out of training camp. Maybe Horvat doesn't. Sure, it's reasonable to assume that they will, but we don't know. To state otherwise would again simply be "pretending to know things you simply don't".

 

All we can do is use logical deduction to make educated guesses as to how things will play out. 

 

And yes, using deductive reasoning, I think it's pretty safe to assume that a guy who managed 19 points at the AHL level last season and showed up to last years training camp out of shape isn't going to be gifted a spot on arguably our most potent offensive line, especially when players like Granlund and Goldobin, two players ahead of Virtanen on the depth chart, have already shown that they can be effective playing with the twins.

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2 hours ago, oldnews said:

Not splitting hairs at all.

 

And two fallacies underlying your assumptions.

First is that you can foretell the future - your posts make claims about what you allege he hasn't done  in the past - but have nothing really to do with next season or the possibilities.

The other fallacy is that you can speak for Green - or pretend to know what level of trust he has in Virtanen -  let alone how much he will have next year.  The other poster is talking about possibilities - you're pretending to know things you simply don't.  I'm not sure I consider his opinion less laughable than yours.

 

I also think you're overlooking something fairly fundamental - this team isn't going to abandon it's investment in Virtanen.  They invested a top 10 pick in him for a number of reasons.  They may send him to the AHL for another year of development - a very distinct possibility - or they may consider him ready to make the next step - and moreover, recognize this as another transition season where it might actually be as good for his development for him to have the opportunity to play in a role that he probably fits as well as anyone else in the system - one that his confidence could really develop in.  It will come down to something fairly unpredictable at this point - how well he competes in September.  You don't really know the answer to than any more than anyone else here.

 

I personally think he would fit a key piece of their forward puzzle very well.   As it stands, Granlund might be the best bet to be the Sedins' winger again - and he was good there last year - but is he or that really ideal?  Granlund was also a great fixture on the matchup/shutdown line last year when he was with Eriksson and Sutter.  Where the roster spots fall is anything but clear at this point.

 

If Virtanen did what was expected of him last year, and works hard this summer, I personally would be quite happy to see something like this:

 

Baertschi Horvat Boeser

Sedin Sedin Virtanen

Granlund Sutter Eriksson

Gaunce Gagner Goldobin

 

That leaves guys like Dorsett (health?), Chaput, Burmistrov, Rodin, Dahlen, etc on the edge/outside of the top 12 forward spots - and who knows what will emerge - but if there is a better big bodied, hard areas, forechecking, cycling, right handed shot than Virtanen to play with the Sedins I'm not sure who that is.

 

I see Goldobin with the twins next year.

 

Baertschi Horvat Boeser

Sedin Sedin Goldobin 

Eriksson Sutter Granlund

Virtanen Gagner Molino

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Just now, Hortankin said:

I see Goldobin with the twins next year.

 

Baertschi Horvat Boeser

Sedin Sedin Goldobin 

Eriksson Sutter Granlund

Virtanen Gagner Molino

Maybe in the odd situational easy minutes, but I don't think he has the grit, forecheck, cycle game, hard areas or defensive presence to make a regular winger for them. 

I think last year what we saw was a situational carrot - may see it again at opportune times this year.

I like Goldobin - but I think in general he'd be better suited to different linemates.

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3 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Maybe in the odd situational easy minutes, but I don't think he has the grit, forecheck, cycle game, hard areas or defensive presence to make a regular winger for them. 

I think last year what we saw was a situational carrot - may see it again at opportune times this year.

I like Goldobin - but I think in general he'd be better suited to different linemates.

What I'd really like to see is..

 

Goldobin Horvat Boeser

Sedin Sedin Eriksson 

Baertschi Sutter Granlund 

Virtanen Gagner Molino 

 

I think Goldobin would really benifit playing with BoBoeser

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3 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

What I'd really like to see is..

 

Goldobin Horvat Boeser

 

That is an interesting line - and I agree that Goldobin could really thrive with a pair of guys like that.  He'd have to key on being a playmaker, but he lacks no creativity.

It's going to be interesting moving forward - it kind of seems like Baertschi is going to wind up an odd guy out at some point - I wouldn't be surprised if he's dealt.

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10 minutes ago, oldnews said:

That is an interesting line - and I agree that Goldobin could really thrive with a pair of guys like that.  He'd have to key on being a playmaker, but he lacks no creativity.

It's going to be interesting moving forward - it kind of seems like Baertschi is going to wind up an odd guy out at some point - I wouldn't be surprised if he's dealt.

I've been saying that for a while now. And with the fuss he put up with his last contract I'm scared he may want top 6 $ and term. At best I view him as our next Hansen, very good 3rd liner capable of playing top line minutes when needed.

 

Hansen was at 2.5M so I'm hoping he gets like 4-5 years at 3.5-4 but he's probably going to want 6-8 years at around 6M

 

I think we should be dangling him as trade bait, but if traded CDC would call for JBs head so it's a tough call.. Baertschi is that guy than may hurt us long term but u could be 150% wrong. Hopefully I am wrong

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13 minutes ago, The Lock said:

I think I'm just going to have no expectations going into the season. I don't even think I know what to expect next season....

If we go into the lottery with the best odds I expect to pick 4th.. so tanking isn't an option for us

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7 minutes ago, Hortankin said:

I've been saying that for a while now. And with the fuss he put up with his last contract I'm scared he may want top 6 $ and term. At best I view him as our next Hansen, very good 3rd liner capable of playing top line minutes when needed.

 

Hansen was at 2.5M so I'm hoping he gets like 4-5 years at 3.5-4 but he's probably going to want 6-8 years at around 6M

 

I think we should be dangling him as trade bait, but if traded CDC would call for JBs head so it's a tough call.. Baertschi is that guy than may hurt us long term but u could be 150% wrong. Hopefully I am wrong

What fuss?  Never heard any of that.

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