Canada/USA/Mexico reach tentative NAFTA deal

[nuckin_futz]

Canada increasingly convinced Donald Trump will soon pull the plug on NAFTA: sources

Sources said they expected Trump would make his move at about the same time that negotiators meet in late January for the sixth and penultimate round of NAFTA talks

 

LONDON, Ontario — Canada is increasingly convinced that U.S. President Donald Trump will soon announce that the United States intends to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement, two government sources said on Wednesday.

 

The sources said they expected Trump would make his move at about the same time that negotiators from the United States, Canada and Mexico meet in late January for the sixth and penultimate round of talks to modernize the treaty.

 

The Canadian and Mexican currencies both weakened against the U.S. dollar after the news.

 

The Canadian dollar fell to its weakest level this year at $1.2561 to the greenback, or 79.61 U.S. cents. The peso was trading down more than 0.6 per cent at 1925 GMT, while the S&P/BM IPC stock index was down about 1.7 per cent.

 

Trump has repeatedly threatened to walk away from NAFTA unless Canada and Mexico agree to major changes Washington says are needed to make the 1994 treaty more fair.

 

Canadian officials say if Trump does announce a U.S. withdrawal, it could be a negotiating tactic designed to win concessions. They also express doubt whether the U.S. Congress would approve such a move.

 

Canada and Mexico have rejected most of the U.S. proposals for NAFTA reforms, leaving officials with a big job if they are to bridge the large differences at the Jan. 23-28 talks in Montreal. Negotiations are due to wrap up at the end of March.

 

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-convinced-donald-trump-will-soon-pull-the-plug-on-nafta-sources

 

******************************

 

Probably shouldn't be a surprise. Negotiations have been going nowhere. Especially since at the beginning Trump insisted the dispute resolution mechanism (Chapter 19) be scrapped.

 

"In simple terms, the (Chapter 19) process allows for an appeal to be heard by a third party made up of trade experts from both disputing countries, instead of leaving it to U.S. or Canadian courts presiding over a trade dispute involving native products and vice versa. "  https://globalnews.ca/news/3608784/nafta-chapter-19-dispute/

 

Trump and his team have insisted disputes be settled by US courts.

 

Looking more and more like there will be 2 separate trade agreements for Canada. One with USA and one with Mexico. This is a nightmare for Mexico.

 

 

[nuckin_futz]

Canada launches wide ranging trade dispute against the United States

 

US trade representative Lighthizer responds

It was reported today, that Canada has launched a wide-ranging trade dispute against the US. In it they challenged the Washingtons use of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties.  

 

The dispute cited nearly 200 examples of US wrongdoing.  Most of the examples involved countries other than Canada.  

 

Anti-dumping and countervailing duties - punitive tariffs to restrict imports that are unfairly priced or subsidized in order to beat the competition - are at the heart of Washington's trade strategy. They are used to defend U.S. interests.  According to sources, the tariffs are allowed under WTO rules but they are subject to strict conditions.

The US has been under fire for years about the way it calculates unfair pricing, or dumping. The calculations the US uses has been "ruled to be out of line" with the WTO rulebook.

US trade representative Lighthizer has responded to the dispute by saying:

 

• Canada's request for WTO consultation is a "broad and ill-advised attack on the US trade remedies system"
• Canada's claims are unfounded and could only lower US confidence that Canada is committed to mutually beneficial trade

The US and Canada are mired in NAFTA talks which are not going all that well. 

 

http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/canada-launches-wide-ranging-trade-dispute-against-the-united-states-20180110

 

*********************************************

 

Obviously if Canada is taking this action they're pretty confident NAFTA is finished.

[Vinny in Vancouver]

So start stocking up on Mexican food? What other things will increase in price if NAFTA's gone?

[Green Building]

Quote

A presidential scuttling of NAFTA would create a historic conflict.

 

On one side would be the powers of the presidency, which include foreign affairs, control over tariffs delegated through various laws, and the provision in NAFTA that allows him to cancel the deal on six months’ notice. On the other side is Congress, which has constitutional power over international commerce and duties; which passed a law to implement NAFTA; and which could argue that the president’s withdrawal violates that 1993 law.

 

Tim Meyer thinks Congress would win.

 

“If the president were to rip up NAFTA and then sort of jack tariffs way up, I think somebody would be able to come in and say … ‘You’re actually violating U.S. domestic law’,” said Meyer, a Vanderbilt professor, former government lawyer, and one-time clerk for Neil Gorsuch, whom Trump appointed to the Supreme Court.

 

“I think courts are going to be sympathetic to the idea that the president can’t ignore the legislation that implements these trade agreements. Congress has not repealed that legislation and they’ve given no indication they intend to.” 

 

He points to the landmark Youngstown steel case of 1952, which established the limits of presidential power — it determined that the president cannot contradict an existing law passed by Congress.

 

http://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/what-happens-if-trump-cancels-nafta-10-lawyers-agree-lotsa-lawsuits

It would only add to the carny presidency he's running down there. All about them wins. 

[Warhippy]

This is awesome.  Trump about to throw tens of billions of dollars in trade and tens of thousands of jobs in jeopardy because he wants an already unfair to Canada and Mexico trade deal further written in favour of the USA.

 

Ever so glad Canada slapped 44 different actions against the US under the WTO and current NAFTA agreement.

 

He can walk, no problem there.  We still have the original Canada US agreement which was far more fair to canadians than the deal Mulroney scraped together.

 

It will in fact hurt Canada in the short term.  But will eventually result in lower prices via retail, fairer prices on energy and bring back some of the lost manufacturing jobs to canada.  It will also allow us to start building or rebuilding sections of the manufacturing and development sectors that were all but neutered under NAFTA.

 

This is great news and while the likelihood of the US government actually agreeing to pull out of the deal is slim, it would be beneficial in the end to canadians

[Green Building]

9 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

This is awesome.  Trump about to throw tens of billions of dollars in trade and tens of thousands of jobs in jeopardy because he wants an already unfair to Canada and Mexico trade deal further written in favour of the USA.

 

Ever so glad Canada slapped 44 different actions against the US under the WTO and current NAFTA agreement.

 

He can walk, no problem there.  We still have the original Canada US agreement which was far more fair to canadians than the deal Mulroney scraped together.

 

It will in fact hurt Canada in the short term.  But will eventually result in lower prices via retail, fairer prices on energy and bring back some of the lost manufacturing jobs to canada.  It will also allow us to start building or rebuilding sections of the manufacturing and development sectors that were all but neutered under NAFTA.

 

This is great news and while the likelihood of the US government actually agreeing to pull out of the deal is slim, it would be beneficial in the end to canadians

CUSFTA? There's no indication they'll honour it, they'll likely just give notice that they'll be terminating that as well since it had a sunset clause in it that has technically not been renewed since NAFTA was put in place. 

 

Quote

The CUSFTA also had a chapter 19 dispute resolution chapter. So if NAFTA dies, would Canada be able to rely on that version to take its place? Probably not, say experts. “Go back to CUSFTA and you’ll find that chapter 19 was sunsetted for five years and technically is expired,” Warner says. That means if the CUSFTA takes effect, “the Americans could technically give notice that they regard it as finished.”

 

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/all-hell-will-break-loose-heres-what-happens-if-donald-trump-kills-nafta/

 

[Warhippy]

6 minutes ago, Green Building said:

CUSFTA? There's no indication they'll honour it, they'll likely just give notice that they'll be terminating that as well since it had a sunset clause in it that has technically not been renewed since NAFTA was put in place. 

 

 

IIRC

 

It is about the tariffs and employment as well as fair pricing put in place of the CUSFTA that would net canada better over the long term the items that NAFTA excluded or re-wrote to the detriment of canadian consumers and businesses averaged out

[JM_]

32 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

This is awesome.  Trump about to throw tens of billions of dollars in trade and tens of thousands of jobs in jeopardy because he wants an already unfair to Canada and Mexico trade deal further written in favour of the USA.

 

Ever so glad Canada slapped 44 different actions against the US under the WTO and current NAFTA agreement.

 

He can walk, no problem there.  We still have the original Canada US agreement which was far more fair to canadians than the deal Mulroney scraped together.

 

It will in fact hurt Canada in the short term.  But will eventually result in lower prices via retail, fairer prices on energy and bring back some of the lost manufacturing jobs to canada.  It will also allow us to start building or rebuilding sections of the manufacturing and development sectors that were all but neutered under NAFTA.

 

This is great news and while the likelihood of the US government actually agreeing to pull out of the deal is slim, it would be beneficial in the end to canadians

thats all true imo, but don't forget the fed's have done a really good job lobbying individual states and congress, so I really doubt Trump ends up actually killing this version of the deal. 

 

Just one more reason why we need to continue to diversify our trading partners and deals. 

[Green Building]

8 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

IIRC

 

It is about the tariffs and employment as well as fair pricing put in place of the CUSFTA that would net canada better over the long term the items that NAFTA excluded or re-wrote to the detriment of canadian consumers and businesses averaged out

So you think the old WTO Canadian export tariffs of %4.2 would be re-introduced in lieu of CUSFAT?  If not, those tariffs and all other issues would have to be renegotiated as well so I'm not sure why you're so confident here. Also, I don't follow the latter half of your last sentence, sorry. 

 

It's too bad the "deal" with China went to crap, but we still have Mexico and Europe to deal with, vegetables would probably skyrocket in price, but that's perhaps the least of the tricky issues should this happen.

[Warhippy]

24 minutes ago, Green Building said:

So you think the old WTO Canadian export tariffs of %4.2 would be re-introduced in lieu of CUSFAT?  If not, those tariffs and all other issues would have to be renegotiated as well so I'm not sure why you're so confident here. Also, I don't follow the latter half of your last sentence, sorry. 

 

It's too bad the "deal" with China went to crap, but we still have Mexico and Europe to deal with, vegetables would probably skyrocket in price, but that's perhaps the least of the tricky issues should this happen.

I would hope so but who knows really.  I always considered something like this as a great potential start or restart for our country.

 

Vegetables could be grown in greenhouses in Sask, just sink them 5 feet down, run them via solar power and make them football field sized.  A nation of less than 40 million doesn't need much.  There's far to much potential benefit to not consider the future without NAFTA

 

And my last sentence was meant to say the old CUFSTA deal would be a far better net benefit for canadian consumers/businesses IMO than NAFTA has been when average out over the same 25 year span

[SabreFan1]

Hmmm.  I know which existing thread this probably should have gone to.....

[riffraff]

7 minutes ago, SabreFan1 said:

Hmmm.  I know which existing thread this probably should have gone to.....

The Donald trump is an orange tiny handed idiot thread?

[SabreFan1]

Just now, riffraff said:

The Donald trump is an orange tiny handed idiot thread?

Otherwise known as the Trump thread. 

[Roger Neilsons Towel]

24 minutes ago, SabreFan1 said:

Hmmm.  I know which existing thread this probably should have gone to.....

 

15 minutes ago, SabreFan1 said:

Otherwise known as the Trump thread. 

 

I think this deserves it's own thread as it's more about NAFTA and trade between the two countries than it is trump.

 

Wading through the abyss that is the Trump thread is not for everyone. 

[SabreFan1]

12 minutes ago, Roger Neilson's Towel said:

I think this deserves it's own thread as it's more about NAFTA and trade between the two countries than it is trump.

 

Wading through the abyss that is the Trump thread is not for everyone. 

NAFTA had been discussed plenty of times on the Trump thread, but I'll grant you, the potpourri of cr*p that that particular thread pinches out would make it difficult for many with a low tolerance to wade through.

[Green Building]

20 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

I would hope so but who knows really.  I always considered something like this as a great potential start or restart for our country.

 

Vegetables could be grown in greenhouses in Sask, just sink them 5 feet down, run them via solar power and make them football field sized.  A nation of less than 40 million doesn't need much.  There's far to much potential benefit to not consider the future without NAFTA

 

And my last sentence was meant to say the old CUFSTA deal would be a far better net benefit for canadian consumers/businesses IMO than NAFTA has been when average out over the same 25 year span

Well Hip, I'm all for Canada becoming more independent, but there are currently around 11,000 football field sized greenhouses in Canada and %41 of what's produced ends up in the US. Canada as a whole imports way way way fresh produce from Mexico than the US, but here in BC we'll feel the sting as California products disappear or increase in price. Maybe we already have enough, but we'll definitely lose out on the warmer climate summer fruits we enjoy in winter since nobody is putting solar panels on a greenhouse to grow raspberries in Saskatoon during winter. Seasonal products aren't novel, but they're tried and tested.

 

My understanding of how NAFTA, or the lack of it, will affect employment issues compared to CUFSTA is virtually non existent. 

[Green Building]

16 minutes ago, Roger Neilson's Towel said:

 

 

I think this deserves it's own thread as it's more about NAFTA and trade between the two countries than it is trump.

 

Wading through the abyss that is the Trump thread is not for everyone. 

That place needs a babysitter.

[sonoman]

28 minutes ago, SabreFan1 said:

NAFTA had been discussed plenty of times on the Trump thread, but I'll grant you, the potpourri of cr*p that that particular thread pinches out would make it difficult for many with a low tolerance to wade through.

Lots of border states would be negatively affected by withdrawing from NAFTA.   What are your thoughts on what might happen to Buffalo/upper New York State?  

[TheOgRook]

1 hour ago, SabreFan1 said:

Hmmm.  I know which existing thread this probably should have gone to.....

Meh, maybe we can have an actual convo with substance rather than tin foil hats and memes  

[TheOgRook]

1 hour ago, Green Building said:

Well Hip, I'm all for Canada becoming more independent, but there are currently around 11,000 football field sized greenhouses in Canada and %41 of what's produced ends up in the US. Canada as a whole imports way way way fresh produce from Mexico than the US, but here in BC we'll feel the sting as California products disappear or increase in price. Maybe we already have enough, but we'll definitely lose out on the warmer climate summer fruits we enjoy in winter since nobody is putting solar panels on a greenhouse to grow raspberries in Saskatoon during winter. Seasonal products aren't novel, but they're tried and tested.

 

My understanding of how NAFTA, or the lack of it, will affect employment issues compared to CUFSTA is virtually non existent. 

Necessity is the mother of all invention.  I'd like to see what changes could be made.  It's odd to travel across the border and have better access to crops grown in our own backyard.  Happens with chicken and other animal products as well. Moving forward as mankind we have to get a lot better at reducing the amount of miles our staple foods travel to get to our plate.