Inflation : 40 Year High

[aGENT]

On 4/30/2023 at 12:42 PM, Boudrias said:

I am a fiscal conservative. Does that make me a nazi or a Trump supporter? It would appear so to most. Why am I a fiscal conservative? I have seen a lot of liars and BS'ers in my day. I thought balanced budgets would force people to sit down and weigh the pros and cons of how the country was run. Give and take. Well that philosophy has pretty much died. Most people are takers now and government is no exception. Politicians punt the responsibility for their spending to future generations and accountability does not exist. 

 

I am a community volunteer. Always believed you give back and help build community. Well that is dying as well as young people are not joining service clubs anymore. The expectation is that government will do it. 

Being fiscally conservative doesn't make you a Nazi. I don't think I've seen anyone ever make that comment or anything like it. It's all the other idiocy that the right is dealing in... The lack of climate plans, the archaic social policies, the Trump-North populism...

 

And unfortunately, the conservative party isn't fiscally conservative either. They're just as bad managing our money, except it ends up helping less actual Canadians while doing so. You see needed social programs cut that are the epitome of short sighted, and only cost us more in the long run, Canadian resources routinely sold off (frequently to foreign entities) etc. 

[Warhippy]

39 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Being fiscally conservative doesn't make you a Nazi. I don't think I've seen anyone ever make that comment or anything like it. It's all the other idiocy that the right is dealing in... The lack of climate plans, the archaic social policies, the Trump-North populism...

 

And unfortunately, the conservative party isn't fiscally conservative either. They're just as bad managing our money, except it ends up helping less actual Canadians while doing so. You see needed social programs cut that are the epitome of short sighted, and only cost us more in the long run, Canadian resources routinely sold off (frequently to foreign entities) etc. 

I won't get in to the social aspect of things but this is inarguable.  The next Conservative hopeful; like the previous two Conservative hopefuls were part of the vaunted Harper government that managed to have almost 7 years of good times in every major Canadian sector and still managed almost $370 billion in total added debt

[ronthecivil]

22 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Brutal how fast it's happened isn't it?

 

And "it's the government's fault" and totally not corporate price gouging 

It's the government's fault for creating the money in the first place.

 

Maybe it is price "gouging" but if you don't like it, don't buy it!

 

You can bike if you don't like gas.

 

You can eat "what's on sale".

 

It's totally possible to skip skipping the dishes.

 

And so on.

 

So the corporate side is easy to fix. Don't patronize them. But the government side, and as noted, both right and left fail at this these days, has not been fixed. And that's the agnostic point I am trying to make. If you don't like the corporate gouging, look out, it's going to get even worse, because the source of the problem isn't even CLOSE to getting religion on over spending, and the people that vote for them haven't either.

 

And the funny thing about over spending, it's not a political issue, it's math. And when the numbers don't add up, something has to give. And the thing that gives to balance it out is inflation....

[ronthecivil]

On 5/5/2023 at 1:45 PM, nuckin_futz said:

Rates in the USA are now 5.25% and yet it has not cooled the employment market a bit. Jobs continue to be added wages continue to rise. The only fault I can find in this report is the 2 month net revision.

 

US April non-farm payrolls +253K vs +180K expected

• April 2023 US employment data from the non-farm payrolls report

 

 

• Prior was +236K(revised to +165K)
• Two-month net revision -149K
• Unemployment rate 3.4% vs 3.6% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 3.5%
• Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.6% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 6.6% vs 6.7% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +4.4% y/y vs +4.2% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4 expected
• Change in private payrolls +230K vs +160K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +11K vs -5K expected
• Household survey +139K vs +577K prior
• Birth-death adjustment+378K vs -29K prior

This is undoubtedly hawkish and puts the Fed in a real bind. The Fed wants to pause and may soon even need to cut but the jobs market isn't cooperating. Now, jobs are certainly a lagging indicator but 3.4% unemployment is extraordinarily tight and this is the 13th straight month of non-farm payrolls beating the consensus estimate.

 

Canada April employment 41.4K versus 20.0K estimate

• Canadian April 2023 jobs report data

 

 

Canada jobs increased by 41.4K led by part-time

• Prior month 34.7K
• Employment gain for April 41.4K vs 20.0K estimate
• Unemployment rate 5.0% versus 5.1% expected
• Full-time employment -6.2K versus 18.8 K last month
• Part-time employment 47.6K versus 15.9 K last month
• Participation rate 65.6% vs 65.6% last month
• Average hourly wages permanent employees 5.2% versus 5.2% last month

other highlights

• Employment growth among core-aged men (25-54 years) and men aged 55+; steady for core-aged and older women; little change for male and female youth.
• Sectors with employment increases: wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information/culture/recreation, and educational services; decrease in business services.
• Employment rose in Ontario and Prince Edward Island, declined in Manitoba, and remained stable in other provinces.
• Average hourly wages increased 5.2% (+$1.66 to $33.38) year-over-year in April (not seasonally adjusted).
• Part-time employment increased while full-time employment held steady; 15.2% of part-time workers involuntarily working part-time.
• Private sector employees increased by 299,000 (+2.3%) year-over-year, public sector increased by 81,000 (+2.0%), and self-employment remained unchanged, below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Looking at the different sectors, the winners and losers are showing:

 

 

• Wholesale and retail trade employment increased by 24,000 (+0.8%) in April, partially offsetting a net decline from May to December 2022.
• Transportation and warehousing employment rose by 17,000 (+1.6%), building on March's increase; up by 47,000 (+4.7%) compared to 12 months earlier.
• Information, culture, and recreation employment increased by 16,000 (+1.9%) after three months of little change; up by 58,000 (+7.3%) since October 2022.
• Educational services employment grew by 15,000 (+1.0%), trending upwards since August 2022 with cumulative gains of 71,000.
• Business, building, and other support services employment decreased by 14,000 (-1.9%), partially offsetting March's increase; up by 32,000 (+4.7%) compared to April 2022.
• Health care and social assistance employment held steady for a second consecutive month.
• Professional, scientific, and technical services employment remained stable in April, with a year-over-year increase of 3.8% (+68,000).

 

Canadian sector winners and losers

Overall, solid job gains but centered in the part-time employment. Full-time prep employment was steady. Unemployment rate dipped back to 5%. That is the low water mark for employment.

 

The US Fed now has the danger of bank failure to look at. But as noted by the boss because of this a lot of the banks, not out of regulation, but out of outright fear for their own survival, are tightening lending standards (or as I call it, getting religion lol)  and that in itself is will help with US inflation. But if they think that inflation is going below 3% as a result, well, they don't think that honestly. They know they have to go up a bit more yet. It's a pretty weird recession with full employment....

 

The Canadian fed has the danger of large swathes of Canadians defaulting on their mortgages (that's far worse than a few smaller banks being gobbled up by bigger one!) and even with the existing interest rates has had to take a bunch of people that over extended themselves and turned their 25 year variable rate mortgage into 80 year ones! So what do they do? The Canadian dollar is gonna tank. Which keep exports up, encourages local spending, but might result in 25 dollar baskets of strawberries etc. There will be inflation on everything we import if they don't raise rates. So our inflation is going to go on even longer. Unless of course Canada wants to pay catch up and we extend those mortgages into the 100 or 200 year horizon. 

[ronthecivil]

1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

I won't get in to the social aspect of things but this is inarguable.  The next Conservative hopeful; like the previous two Conservative hopefuls were part of the vaunted Harper government that managed to have almost 7 years of good times in every major Canadian sector and still managed almost $370 billion in total added debt

I think I will put in a write in ballot of "anyone that can do math please" next ellection.

[Warhippy]

33 minutes ago, ronthecivil said:

I think I will put in a write in ballot of "anyone that can do math please" next ellection.

I am not partisan in the least.  I hate liars and people who will ignore their own history in order to vilify others for doing the same things they did while in power or would do while in power.

 

Kinda hate that this is what we are relegated to having.

 

An out of touch and completely out to lunch Trudeau

A whiney petulant fire brand with no plan in Poiliverre

A spineless opportunist in Singh

 

Every single party has options that are FAR better leaders than those actually leading.  I just want someone who has been elected with no experience in office.  But has 3 kids a single income and knows the value of a dollar and what crap costs for the average person again.

 

Trudeau, millionaire with minimal work experience.

Poiliverre, millionaire because of public office with no work experience

Singh a millionaire with some work experience.

 

Like...ffs we deserve better than all of that

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

I won't get in to the social aspect of things but this is inarguable.  The next Conservative hopeful; like the previous two Conservative hopefuls were part of the vaunted Harper government that managed to have almost 7 years of good times in every major Canadian sector and still managed almost $370 billion in total added debt

 

And I'll take poor money management that actually has social support network programs for real Canadians, makes at least their rich CANADIAN friends more money, and doesn't sell off Canadian resources, for pennies on the dollar, to foreign interests, to "balance" the budget.

 

I honestly have trouble grasping how "actual" fiscally conservative people absolutely delude themselves for voting for this version of "conservatives". 

[Elias Pettersson]

 

[ronthecivil]

18 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Lol it already IS digital. Nobody actually "prints" money to generate the money that creates inflation. If I borrow a ton of money out of my line of credit to buy stocks, and then get a tax return, no actually money is printed. I end up owing more money to the bank, but it's just a ledger in the bank. So is my paycheck, and so are the interest payments. The stocks are all digital, they don't send my stock certificates! The dividends I get are all just bank transfers. The money that the feds use to give me my tax returns are just ledgers, that they create by selling bonds that are just ledgers in those accounts. Nobody actually has to use any cash (and few do) to do just about anything.

 

Even if you did the super silly "go to crypto" all of the above could and would apply. But instead of inflation, you would just have shrinkflation, making microcrpto, then picocrypto, and so on. And in fact you could acquire a bunch of crypto and print out certificates that represent it.

 

So why bother? What actual difference with it make? 

[Warhippy]

34 minutes ago, ronthecivil said:

Lol it already IS digital. Nobody actually "prints" money to generate the money that creates inflation. If I borrow a ton of money out of my line of credit to buy stocks, and then get a tax return, no actually money is printed. I end up owing more money to the bank, but it's just a ledger in the bank. So is my paycheck, and so are the interest payments. The stocks are all digital, they don't send my stock certificates! The dividends I get are all just bank transfers. The money that the feds use to give me my tax returns are just ledgers, that they create by selling bonds that are just ledgers in those accounts. Nobody actually has to use any cash (and few do) to do just about anything.

 

Even if you did the super silly "go to crypto" all of the above could and would apply. But instead of inflation, you would just have shrinkflation, making microcrpto, then picocrypto, and so on. And in fact you could acquire a bunch of crypto and print out certificates that represent it.

 

So why bother? What actual difference with it make? 

For me that's always been the laughable part of people fear mongering digital currency.

 

Nice bank card.. visa, debit, line or cr dit, mobile stocks, smart watch and phone payment system.

 

It's already all digital and every single gd social media platform knows full well how much you make what you buy and where you buy it from because people willingly give them access to apps across their phone 

 

The belief that the government having a form of digital currency being a sort of over reach is insanely myopic 

[Gurn]

so, I go to renew my house insurance, and find that I'm looking at a doubling of my premium, although my house 'only' gained 39% over last year.

[ronthecivil]

4 hours ago, Warhippy said:

For me that's always been the laughable part of people fear mongering digital currency.

 

Nice bank card.. visa, debit, line or cr dit, mobile stocks, smart watch and phone payment system.

 

It's already all digital and every single gd social media platform knows full well how much you make what you buy and where you buy it from because people willingly give them access to apps across their phone 

 

The belief that the government having a form of digital currency being a sort of over reach is insanely myopic 

Ya. When a crypto pumper says "I don't understand it" I say "ya, it's "money" but without the backing of government! With out at least trying effort of a bank! And when they say "so that makes money better" I say "I don't believe in money either!". (In case your wondering if it's not clear, I believe in assets, and owning the means of production, duh!).

 

People that are concerned about big brother should start by taking a hammer to their phone. At least then you can't be location tracked if you stick to cash, mostly. But you kinda have to go off the grid if you don't want someone stealing your identity to try to sell you more (insert the last thing you made the mistake of googling).

 

As is, the government can take over your property and you can't do anything about it, but you do get some ledger credits. (Expropriation). They routinely take a cut of all the money you make or spend (taxation). The can force you to join the army and be ordered to charge machine gun fire (the draft). People are so stuck to their phones they can't even be brought to leave them at home when they are on a crime spree lol, so the last bit of privacy has been given up voluntarily.

 

My only issue with the digital currency that is propose is "why bother" and "what's the point" as it's pretty clear as we both agree that it already freaking IS! 

[ronthecivil]

4 hours ago, Gurn said:

so, I go to renew my house insurance, and find that I'm looking at a doubling of my premium, although my house 'only' gained 39% over last year.

All those fires and floods and higher wages at the insurance company and stuff ya know.

 

But sure, inflation is going down lol!

 

Ethical question! If I see bananas at the store for 49 cents a pound on Saturday (cheap, we bought some!) and then popping in the next day to say 'omg they are 79 cents a pound now" and then openly questioning if they will be 20 bucks a pound by the end of the month? I suppose it can be seen as jest right?

 

Better than getting out of a crowded elevator and saying "thanks for the COVID party". I know for a fact that still goes over like a lead ballon.

[Gurn]

45 minutes ago, ronthecivil said:

bananas at the store for 49 cents a pound on Saturday (cheap, we bought some!) and then popping in the next day to say 'omg they are 79 cents a pound now"

Every day I walk past our local "The Brick" store and see them advertising their stuff as " On sale"  'Was $2300, now $1500"

and think- 'wow they over price their stuff, so much, to make it seem like you get a deal".

They really didn't like it when I tried to knock $500 off, of their $700 tv.

I just told them I learned this lesson from how you price your other stuff.

 

To me sales prices are just stores admitting they were screwing me over all the other times I was there.

I know there will be times they get a 'good' price from their suppliers, and pass it on, but mostly it is marketing gimmickry.

 

Something in the human thinking process that makes Us think  $1.99 per  is so much cheaper than $2 per.

[nuckin_futz]

Argentina's central bank hikes rates by 600 bps to 97%

• Another 600 bps should fix it

Whatever is ailing Argentina will surely be fixed by hiking rates to 97% from 91%.

 

This is obviously headed for yet-another ugly episode in Argentina, which has seen just about everything in the last 60 years.

 

[nuckin_futz]

For those who travel to Mexico .........

Mexican peso hits the best level since before the Trump era

• They didn't have to build a wall or pay for it
•  

The US dollar has fallen to the lowest level against the Mexican peso since this time in 2016. That marks a seven-year high in the peso that completes a retracement of the pain from the early part of Trump's anti-Mexico presidency.

 

 

USDMXN monthly

 

Building a wall on the Mexican border was the single-largest talking point for Trump in his early rise to political prominence but it ultimately amounted to very little, and Mexico certainly didn't pay for it.

 

Trump did renegotiate NAFTA but the agreement was more of a modernization of the accounting for electronic auto parts and the US lost the first dispute on that file.

 

Instead, Mexico is benefiting from angst about a trade war with China; something that also kicked off under Trump. The move towards reshoring looks to be a powerful factory and there's a shift to production in Mexico where low-wage workers are plentiful. The country also stands to benefit from inbound investment in resources as it looks to capitalize on the coming mining boom and also tries to straighten out its energy production.

 

I've long been a bull on the Mexican peso but it's been a slow trade to unfold. Much of that is because the US dollar has been globally strong but if the dollar cracks, then there's still plenty of room for the peso to run, with a complete retracement of the USD/MXN rally since 2015 possible.

 

Mexico's central bank meets this week and 12 of 15 analysts polled by Reuters see no change from the 11.25% benchmark rate with the remainder seeing a 25 bps hike. The high rate combined with a rising currency is a compelling case for inbound capital but inflation is starting to ease and cuts late this year could reverse some of those flows. The benchmark 10-year yield in Mexico nearly hit 10% in October but has since slid to 8.77%.

 

CAD has been even weaker vs the Mexican Peso.

Edited May 15, 2023 by nuckin_futz

[Gurn]

just got back from Freshco

Noticed that the bag of McCain's hash browns-which has been $2.99 for 900 grams for a few months; is now that price but is only 800grams now.

Shrinkflation strikes again.  12.5 % smaller package, same high price.

Add on- the product isn't all that great either, Sometimes fresh yellow spud bits, or cubes, other times russett cubes, or bits; and still have to pick out the black  bits.

 

I'll be price checking at Save-on, might be buying from them in the future.

[Junkyard Dog]

 

4 hours ago, Gurn said:

just got back from Freshco

Noticed that the bag of McCain's hash browns-which has been $2.99 for 900 grams for a few months; is now that price but is only 800grams now.

Shrinkflation strikes again.  12.5 % smaller package, same high price.

Add on- the product isn't all that great either, Sometimes fresh yellow spud bits, or cubes, other times russett cubes, or bits; and still have to pick out the black  bits.

 

I'll be price checking at Save-on, might be buying from them in the future.

Flipp app is pretty useful for finding deals. Gives you all the flyer sales of all stores and online sales as well. 
 

Good especially when trying to stock up meat. Just by a crap ton when good sales are on and freeze. What I do is kind of follow the sales because they cycle through the same ones over a period. 

[nuckin_futz]

Got A Small Iced Coffee From Tim Hortons In Canada, Then Crossed Into The US And Placed The Same Order

 

 

[Warhippy]

1 minute ago, nuckin_futz said:

Got A Small Iced Coffee From Tim Hortons In Canada, Then Crossed Into The US And Placed The Same Order

 

 

That's more of an indictment on the US system than it is on canada for inflationary issues