[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, JM_ said:

I've seen some comments around how mistakes were made not moving Miller, but we have no idea what was being offered. I'd suspect not much, as we didn't really get any leaks over possible deals, unless I missed some report?

To be honest I find it it pretty funny when people try to state what was offered and such. These are professional business men running million/billion dollar enterprises. Surely the public isn't privy to every move, strategy, and offer put on the table. I'am confused as to why people think that. In reality we know nothing, not even one official offer. The offer could have been Kravstov and a second, or it could have been Schnieder, Laf, Chytil, and a first. We can speculate all we want but we simply don't know and there is no reason we should or expect to have that information. It should be noted it appears Allvin is extremely tight lipped. I think anyone that thinks they know every single offer and exactly what was going on at the table are only fooling themselves.

 

1 hour ago, JM_ said:

those numbers are, at best, an attempt by Millers agent to set some sort of negotiating ceiling. I'd be really surprised if anyone gave him 8.5 x 8. 

I wouldn't be at all. All it takes is one GM to decide he wants an impact player who is top 10 in the league in scoring. Happens all the time. These players are rare if you are at a position where you want to make a serious move. I do agree though that teams will be wary for the same reasons we are so I totally get and even somewhat agree with you but it only takes one or two such offers from 31 possible teams.

[JM_]

46 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

first off any other team it'll be 7 years not 8 and why wouldn't anyone give him 8.5x7? Zibanjed signed for 8.5x8, if miller signs for 7 they end at the same time. Hertl just signed for 8 years at 8.1 that takes him to 37. Couture signed till he's 38. there are plenty of example of players signing a max term contract at market price at the age of 29-30.. not that many of them age well but doesn't mean there won't be teams out there willing to give those contracts out. 

 

besides it doesn't even matter if there's no team that'll give him 8.5x7 if he hits ufa... you think he'll sign a low term contract or low cap high term contract just because you tell him i don't think any team will offer you 8.5x 7 or 8? any offer from vancouver that's not max money max term.. he can easily get from most teams in free agency.. so unless we offer him something that's favorable to him.. there's 0 reason for him to not test free agency.. and if we ended up trading him.. Miller wouldn't care as it would be to a contender.. not like we can threaten to dump him to buffalo or new jersey like some poster were suggesting when we were negotiating with EP and Hughes.. as they would have 0 interest

SJS love to sign their big contracts, not sure they really represent other teams on willingness to go big on older players. 

 

Do the NYR want two of these types of contracts? I doubt it. 

 

What other teams will have the cap space to do an 8.5 x 8 deal? which btw we'd have to do a sign and trade for. 

[JM_]

10 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

To be honest I find it it pretty funny when people try to state what was offered and such. These are professional business men running million/billion dollar enterprises. Surely the public isn't privy to every move, strategy, and offer put on the table. I'am confused as to why people think that. In reality we know nothing, not even one official offer. The offer could have been Kravstov and a second, or it could have been Schnieder, Laf, Chytil, and a first. We can speculate all we want but we simply don't know and there is no reason we should or expect to have that information. It should be noted it appears Allvin is extremely tight lipped. I think anyone that thinks they know every single offer and exactly what was going on at the table are only fooling themselves.

 

I wouldn't be at all. All it takes is one GM to decide he wants an impact player who is top 10 in the league in scoring. Happens all the time. These players are rare if you are at a position where you want to make a serious move. I do agree though that teams will be wary for the same reasons we are so I totally get and even somewhat agree with you but it only takes one or two such offers from 31 possible teams.

I just feel like with all the covid related losses, its going to be hard for Miller to get that big of a contact and 8 years, at his age. 

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, JM_ said:

those numbers are, at best, an attempt by Millers agent to set some sort of negotiating ceiling. I'd be really surprised if anyone gave him 8.5 x 8. 

I wouldn't be. That's roughly the high end of his market value. Someone may offer it to get him. And even if he signs for a bit less, we're talking what $8.2m x8 instead? That's still $65.6m (AKA right around the +/- $65m mark I keep noting it will likely take to sign him). You're acting like there's going to be some night and day difference. There isn't.

 

It's going to take $65m, give or take a couple mil to sign him. Divide by whatever term you want, that's your AAV.

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, JM_ said:

I just feel like with all the covid related losses, its going to be hard for Miller to get that big of a contact and 8 years, at his age. 

Other players are signing similar contracts under the same circumstances. Why would you think Miller will be any different?

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Other players are signing similar contracts under the same circumstances. Why would you think Miller will be any different?

I think we’ve already allotted the funds to keep Miller.  

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Other players are signing similar contracts under the same circumstances. Why would you think Miller will be any different?

he could be a bit more polarizing than other players. He didn't become a ppg player until he ended up here, he's got some attitude history, that kind of thing. Its a huge investment so I think there are things that might drive the cost down a bit.

 

His style of play works against betting on him performing this way to 38 as well. If he was more of a perimeter sniper type like Pat Kane thats a different risk.

 

Depending on how the bonus money is handled, I could see something in the mid-7's if a team has to go 8 years. 

[Gawdzukes]

32 minutes ago, mll said:

He traded away Ellis and Arvidsson for futures and only gave Granlund and Ekholm 4 year deals.  In his interviews when Poile doesn't want to answer a question he says so.  Can't recall him giving a bogus answer for the sake of it.  

 

Guerin has said multiple times that the fanbase is too smart for him to lie to - not how you create trust.  Guerin is in media so often and so far has stayed true to what he has disclosed.

 

I hear what you're saying and it makes sense. It just seems some fans take this stuff way to literally. It's not like this quote is binding by law or anything and he can't change his mind or fit Miller into his line of strategic thinking. Especially if he comes to the conclusion it's a good move for the club. Club and GM direction change all the time, it's a very fluid landscape and market place. The stuff you're quoting also wasn't in direct response to going after Miller either, it's just a general statement.

 

Does this mean he's never allowed to trade for "now" because of that statement, or when was the statement made and how long does he have to wait until his soundbite is no longer stopping him from upgrading the team?

 

I guess if you're coming from the keep Miller camp and are looking for reasons to kibosh a trade than yes it doesn't look like there are a lot of options available. And you can make cases like this one. However it does also seems absolutely reasonable that a playoff team such as Nashville may decide after the playoffs that Miller is exactly what they need. It may not be likely but if you're in the Vancouver camp and trying to get a deal done then you explore all your options and see what's on the table. You only need one team to make a trade.

[Gawdzukes]

10 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I just feel like with all the covid related losses, its going to be hard for Miller to get that big of a contact and 8 years, at his age. 

Yup I totally get that and despite my position I wouldn't be shocked either if somehow he ended up at 7x7.25 or something way lower than speculated. I mean look how wary some of us are. It is a horrible time to be going after a long contract but usually teams will sacrifice for the cream of the crop and skimp on the rest.

[Gawdzukes]

7 minutes ago, JM_ said:

he could be a bit more polarizing than other players. He didn't become a ppg player until he ended up here, he's got some attitude history, that kind of thing. Its a huge investment so I think there are things that might drive the cost down a bit.

 

His style of play works against betting on him performing this way to 38 as well. If he was more of a perimeter sniper type like Pat Kane thats a different risk.

 

Depending on how the bonus money is handled, I could see something in the mid-7's if a team has to go 8 years. 

Wait ... I thought you were on the signing Miller side? 

[wai_lai416]

3 minutes ago, JM_ said:

SJS love to sign their big contracts, not sure they really represent other teams on willingness to go big on older players. 

 

Do the NYR want two of these types of contracts? I doubt it. 

 

What other teams will have the cap space to do an 8.5 x 8 deal? which btw we'd have to do a sign and trade for. 

again teams can easily sign him for 8.5x7 doesn't have to be the 8 years? literally even signing a 8mil x7 deal with any non canandian team in the state that's not in california.. the take him pay would be higher than if he signed a 8mil x 8 years in vancouver lol... let say if he were to sign 8mil x 7 with say pittsburgh for example.. his net pay after tax is 32mil... if he was to sign with vancouver 8.5mil x 8.. his net pay is 31.7mil... 0 incentive for him to have an extra year lol..

 

ok let's not look at SJ.. brayden schenn? coutourier? duchene, kopitar if u go even further back than the recent years there's plenty of example player signed for max money till they are 37 or 38.. what teams will have cap space for 8-8.5? i'm pretty sure there's plenty of teams that have that cap space as miller would be replacing someone and they budget around it.. just like vancouver would have to find the cap space to re-sign miller and budget around it by not re-signing a player here or there.

 

like seriously you guys make the 8 year seem like a big deal when really he would make more playing in the states outside of california in 7 years at a lower aav and retire a year earlier

[JM_]

12 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Wait ... I thought you were on the signing Miller side? 

I am - I just don't expect the last 3 years to sparkle. 

[JM_]

12 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

again teams can easily sign him for 8.5x7 doesn't have to be the 8 years? literally even signing a 8mil x7 deal with any non canandian team in the state that's not in california.. the take him pay would be higher than if he signed a 8mil x 8 years in vancouver lol... let say if he were to sign 8mil x 7 with say pittsburgh for example.. his net pay after tax is 32mil... if he was to sign with vancouver 8.5mil x 8.. his net pay is 31.7mil... 0 incentive for him to have an extra year lol..

 

ok let's not look at SJ.. brayden schenn? coutourier? duchene, kopitar if u go even further back than the recent years there's plenty of example player signed for max money till they are 37 or 38.. what teams will have cap space for 8-8.5? i'm pretty sure there's plenty of teams that have that cap space as miller would be replacing someone and they budget around it.. just like vancouver would have to find the cap space to re-sign miller and budget around it by not re-signing a player here or there.

 

like seriously you guys make the 8 year seem like a big deal when really he would make more playing in the states outside of california in 7 years at a lower aav and retire a year earlier

the tax thing is a bit overblown, its not that big of a thing outside of Florida 

[wai_lai416]

10 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Yup I totally get that and despite my position I wouldn't be shocked either if somehow he ended up at 7x7.25 or something way lower than speculated. I mean look how wary some of us are. It is a horrible time to be going after a long contract but usually teams will sacrifice for the cream of the crop and skimp on the rest.

i disagree about the horrible time going after a long contract.. the salary cap is starting to go up again.. teams are still signing those massive contracts after covid stoppage... like what changed to make it tough for them to get the long contract at max money?? teams going to stop spending to the cap?? 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

i disagree about the horrible time going after a long contract.. the salary cap is starting to go up again.. teams are still signing those massive contracts after covid stoppage... like what changed to make it tough for them to get the long contract at max money?? teams going to stop spending to the cap?? 

Miller will make 10 - 15 million more signing with us this summer than he will going to free agency July 2023.  With us he will get 65 - 70 mil.  Summer 2023 he’s not getting such a long term.  8.5 x 6.  So about 50 mil.  

 

[wai_lai416]

Just now, JM_ said:

the tax thing is a bit overblown, its not that big of a thing outside of Florida 

not that big of a thing outside of florida?? i just literally showed u.. signing a 8milx7 deal with almost any team outside of california and canada will net him more than signing a 8.5x8 years in vancouver.. so there's little to no incentive of having that 1 extra year in vancouver... how would you like to work for free for 1 year? most states tax rate is at around 43% for the bracket.. vancouver is at 53.. we are not just talking about the florida states.. short term deals no big deal.. long term deal? that's a pretty massive difference... 

 

if someone offer me 56mil to work for 7 years and my take him after tax is 32mil.. vs someone offering me 68mil to work for 8 years but my take home is a little less than 32mil.. pretty sure i take the 7 years all day any day unless i really love the city i'm in..

[wai_lai416]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Miller will make 10 - 15 million more signing with us this summer than he will going to free agency July 2023.  With us he will get 65 - 70 mil.  Summer 2023 he’s not getting such a long term.  8.5 x 6.  So about 50 mil.  

 

again.. after tax he will make just as much.. u can give him 68mil for 8 years.. he'll make as much after tax for 56mil for 7 years from any other team.. if the canucks will offer him 8 years.. other team will offer him 7

 

you guys are just looking at raw numbers.. who cares if we pay him 100mil.. he only cares about how much he actually gets to take to his bank.. which is 47mil.. other teams can pay him 83mil.. he'll still be taking home 47mil

Edited April 2, 2022 by wai_lai416

[JM_]

6 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

not that big of a thing outside of florida?? i just literally showed u.. signing a 8milx7 deal with almost any team outside of california and canada will net him more than signing a 8.5x8 years in vancouver.. so there's little to no incentive of having that 1 extra year in vancouver... how would you like to work for free for 1 year? most states tax rate is at around 43% for the bracket.. vancouver is at 53.. we are not just talking about the florida states.. short term deals no big deal.. long term deal? that's a pretty massive difference... 

 

if someone offer me 56mil to work for 7 years and my take him after tax is 32mil.. vs someone offering me 68mil to work for 8 years but my take home is a little less than 32mil.. pretty sure i take the 7 years all day any day unless i really love the city i'm in..

cap friendly has an income tax tool: https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator

 

Like I said, its not really that big of a deal outside of Florida. We could offer more in bonus money to help compensate for tax differences in other markets. 

 

E.g., say the Panthers want him at 8.5 his take home is 5.043. In Vancouver its 4.29. But if its NYR its 4.44 mil. We could easily offer more bonus money to make up for the difference in salary between Vancouver and NY.

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by JM_

[Alflives]

6 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

again.. after tax he will make just as much.. u can give him 68mil for 8 years.. he'll make as much after tax for 56mil for 7 years from any other team.. if the canucks will offer him 8 years.. other team will offer him 7

I don’t think nhl players pay tax like that.  They pay a varying tX rate based on the game location, don’t they?  Plus our dollar is 22% less.  So really Miller will have more money here.  70 million is actually 85.  Players like the anonymity they have down south.  Not nearly the same fans as here.  

Edited April 2, 2022 by Alflives

[JM_]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

I don’t think nhl players pay tax like that.  They pay a varying tX rate based on the game location, don’t they?  Plus our dollar is 22% less.  So really Miller will have more money here.  70 million is actually 85.  

the tax tool link I posted above is handy for real comparisons. Its useful to look at that, since if we can figure out the most likely teams Miller would sign with we can see how close our tax situation is here and compensate via more bonus money early in his deal, front loading things a bit more.