Why I think Miller will be traded and why Canuck fans will be somewhat disappointed with the return.

[mll]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Thanks mll, didn't know that about conditional picks (and have read the CBA - but don't remember all the details) .  So 6.375 for one year is probably what we should expect for next season.   Can  he also sign a long term deal, and just get paid his QO the first year?    Say a 6 x 6 deal .... and first year get his "bonus" money ... Brock hasn't earned his deal.   Has he. 

 

It was one of the changes in the CBA MOU ahead of the bubbles. 

 

The award is only if they go through the arbitration process where both sides have a hearing where they present their arguments to a neutral arbitrator.  Before that hearing they are free to negotiate a deal.  The qualifying offer doesn't come into play when they agree on a new deal.  They can structure the contract as they wish.

 

 

[Provost]

26 minutes ago, BPA said:

What did Eichel get in that trade?

The return for Buffalo is Peyton Krebs, Alex Tuch, a future first-round draft pick and a future second-rounder. 

 

 

I’m not saying Miller is going to get that much but certainly not for scrubs.  
 

 

Kerbs = top prospect. Tuch = young middle 6 player.

Eichel is also getting paid $10 million and was facing an uncertain medical future which reduced his return.

 

Miller, especially with salary retained should absolutely command a similar package.

[Provost]

5 hours ago, filthycanuck said:

Geezus if we land Lafrenier and K'andre miller, to hell with the 1st round pick

 

Can we really get Severson and Zacha? Maybe 1 but not both. I can see Severson maybe 1 for 1, more like a lateral move

It is funny that one reply said Zacha and Severson was a terrible return and one says we can’t get them both.

 

Garland has produced more points the last couple years than Zacha but not by a really wide margin.  Zacha id one year younger and a whole lot bigger, which I think is important to complement our existing smaller team…. I am pretty high in the guy being a consistent 50 point player through his prime.

 

Severson to me is just a bandaid at this point.  He is only under club control for another year before becoming a UFA.  He doesn’t seem like he will be in Jersey’s plans as they have a bunch of young D prospects.  He would be too expensive in his next contract and likely too many downside years on his term.  For us, he helps us stay competitive next year and more importantly shows players like Horvat that we don’t just plan on punting the next couple years to rebuild.
 

We don’t have any compelling reason to trade Garland, so it would be the other team that has to step up and convince us it is in our interest.

 

 

[appleboy]

On 2/1/2022 at 9:27 AM, nameci said:

I think JR knows something for certain that most Canuck fans can only speculate on.  I don’t think that Vancouver will be JT Miller’s first choice when it comes time to sign his next contract.  My opinion is that he will probably prefer to sign with an American team.  So what do we do with JT in the meantime.  A number of Canuck fans feel that we are close to being a playoff team this year, so we will need all of the intangibles that JT brings to the team.  Next year, let’s assume that we will again be in the playoff hunt and our chances would be much improved with JT on the team, so we keep him.  When all is said and done, JT walks and doesn’t resign.  Now we are in the same position as we were when Tanev, Markstrom, Stetcher and Toffoli left for cap reasons and WE GOT NOTHING IN RETURN WHEN THEY LEFT.  So I think JR will choose to sell high and get the max return for JT while he is still in his prime and we still have some leverage.

i really doubt that Schneider, Carlo or Boldy are coming our way.  I get the sense that other teams are unwilling to part with prime young assets for JT’s services.  While Canuck fans are thinking Schneider, Chytl and a first is a fair return, I think the Rangers will be unwilling to part with Schneider or even Lundquist in a trade.
I think we will harvest a good supply of picks and prospects which will fill two of JR’s requirements, create cap space and restock our prospect pool.  This definitely means that no big contracts will be coming back in trade.

One fan’s opinion.

I think they will get one good prospect. The rest may be picks. All they need is one good prospect out of each vet moved and then load up on picks.

[Bure_Pavel]

14 hours ago, JM_ said:

my order of preference for who stays is: Bo, Miller then Boeser if I'm forced to decide to lose one. 

I dont think trading Boeser gets us enough cap to sign Miller + Bo and fix defense. Boeser also fits better age wise with the core, I fully expect Petey and Boeser to bounce back next season.

[N4ZZY]

2 hours ago, grumpyone said:

if he felt that the team was headed in the right direction and wanted a chance to win. without a no trade clause he could get traded to buffalo or arizona

I mean, with the season that the Canucks are having right now, I do not think the team is headed in the right direction. I don't think Miller sees this team as going in the right direction. We can't even make the playoffs. He's not stupid. This team isn't a contender. 

 

[N4ZZY]

54 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

I dont think trading Boeser gets us enough cap to sign Miller + Bo and fix defense. Boeser also fits better age wise with the core, I fully expect Petey and Boeser to bounce back next season.

Yeah. Me too. I expect Petey to bounce back. Boeser is kind of at the age where he's really close to what you see is what you get. He'll be 25 next season isn't he? That's right about the age where not too many players will continue to improve.

[Bure_Pavel]

47 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

Yeah. Me too. I expect Petey to bounce back. Boeser is kind of at the age where he's really close to what you see is what you get. He'll be 25 next season isn't he? That's right about the age where not too many players will continue to improve.

Yeah Boeser still can improve though, especially with the little things and defensive side of the game. Boeser has averaged 30.8 goals/82 games in his career so far including his early years in the NHL. Perennial 30 goal scorers are valuable assets to have. 

[N4ZZY]

26 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Yeah Boeser still can improve though, especially with the little things and defensive side of the game. Boeser has averaged 30.8 goals/82 games in his career so far including his early years in the NHL. Perennial 30 goal scorers are valuable assets to have. 

Yea. The thing is, he’s never actually hit 30 goals ever in his career. He’s come close. His inability to remain healthy is an issue as well. 

 

What do you think he’s worth? And do you think Brock would take less to remain a Canuck? 

 

[alt kilgore]

8 hours ago, N4ZZY said:

In some sense, JR is under a timeline to move Miller. He doesn’t have forever. To maximize whatever JT deal, it’s probably for this season, before the trade deadline, or at the deadline in March. He waits until next season, and there will be increasing pressure to deal. If he waits until next season’s deadline, teams are going to know that they don’t have to trade for him either. They can wait until he hits free agency and see if they can’t sign him for free. 

 

 

 

But he's not under a timeline if Miller actually wants to stay here.  Even if Miller is wavering on that, if JR managed to trade enough other pieces and do his magic resulting in a couple of steals from other teams to create a bonifide playoff team, and Miller saw that happen around him, he may still want to be a part of our resurgence.

 

There's no "right" answer here.  It all depends on a lot of variables. 

- Maybe Miller is dead set to move back to the US.  In a lot of ways I don't blame him with all the *&^% he's gone through here. From Bennings bumbling of the team makeup, to COVID mandate differences, and just to play again for a city in his home country.

....but maybe not

 

- Maybe Rutherford will get an offer he can't refuse. (I'll leave others to ruminate on examples of players involved). 

.....but maybe not.   So wait til Summer, or later.  As long as Miller keeps up his pace, I contend that a sucker is born every day, ie...some GM will overpay for him even next TDL.

 

- Maybe some team will offer a steal of a deal for others in our present core as an option.  Horvat, or Boeser.  Boeser may be motivated to play in Minnesota, closer to his family there.  And the Wild may be interested in him as a favourite son coming home who will sign for a friendly contract.

  ....but maybe not

 

In Rutherford we trust. 

[RomanP]

On 2/1/2022 at 8:40 AM, ba;;isticsports said:

We gave up a high 1st and 3rd pick and a goalie and he is a more valuable player now on a contract, so i expect more than we paid in return than lower round picks of the same draft  rounds  minimum

Sorry, we didn't give up high 1st round pick. It was conditional and we ended up giving up a 1st round the year of the bubble playoffs (second round for us). It ended up being 20th overall pick - by no means "high".

[Bure_Pavel]

8 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

Yea. The thing is, he’s never actually hit 30 goals ever in his career. He’s come close. His inability to remain healthy is an issue as well. 

 

What do you think he’s worth? And do you think Brock would take less to remain a Canuck? 

 

I would do 7.5 miilion X 5 years for his next contract if he will go for it, I do think he likes it here in Vancouver.

[N4ZZY]

4 minutes ago, kilgore said:

 

But he's not under a timeline if Miller actually wants to stay here.  Even if Miller is wavering on that, if JR managed to trade enough other pieces and do his magic resulting in a couple of steals from other teams to create a bonifide playoff team, and Miller saw that happen around him, he may still want to be a part of our resurgence.

 

There's no "right" answer here.  It all depends on a lot of variables. 

- Maybe Miller is dead set to move back to the US.  In a lot of ways I don't blame him with all the *&^% he's gone through here. From Bennings bumbling of the team makeup, to COVID mandate differences, and just to play again for a city in his home country.

....but maybe not

 

- Maybe Rutherford will get an offer he can't refuse. (I'll leave others to ruminate on examples of players involved). 

.....but maybe not.   So wait til Summer, or later.  As long as Miller keeps up his pace, I contend that a sucker is born every day, ie...some GM will overpay for him even next TDL.

 

- Maybe some team will offer a steal of a deal for others in our present core as an option.  Horvat, or Boeser.  Boeser may be motivated to play in Minnesota, closer to his family there.  And the Wild may be interested in him as a favourite son coming home who will sign for a friendly contract.

  ....but maybe not

 

In Rutherford we trust. 

Yea, that’s assuming he wants to remain. There has been no indication that he’s wanted to remain. He hasn’t even publicly said anything remotely close to wanting to remain with the Canucks, to win here. I suspect, like so many other fans on these boards, that he’s probably as good as gone. I love Miller’s game, I love him as a player. He bleeds work ethic (when he’s not lazy making stupid passes, and being lazy on the back check). Personally, Benning has &^@#ed this team so badly with his mis-management, that I don’t think even JR can undo a lot of what Benning did in one trade deadline. Would have to be massive moves in a short period of time to demonstrate to the current players on the team, and JT specifically, that we’re going to be a contender. 

 

JT’s not “young” per se anymore. Like, how long is the team going to take to become a contender? 3-4 years? Because by that time, he’d be 31/32 years old. He doesn’t have that much more time to win a championship. It’s hard to win one, let alone contend for the playoffs especially in the west. I think JT’s competitiveness and strong desire to win, will move him to another team, who is actually contending. Like the Rangers. Or Carolina. Hell, maybe he even moves back to his home state of Ohio, to play for the Jackets. I just don’t see him being a Canuck. He does not strike me as a player that bleeds blue and green here, unfortunately. Just my gut. No facts, or reports on that. 

 

Haha. Indeed a sucker is born every day. I hope that sucker is born this trade deadline, so we get a massive haul for Miller if indeed the plan is to move from him. If we can get prospects for a good, power forward, PK, PP, PPG player, then we do it, especially if there’s indication and inclination that he doesn’t want to commit to Van long term. If he does, then we move other pieces out - like Brock, and Garland. 

 

Like you, I do trust Rutherford. But after so many years of inept mismanagement from Benning. JR’s gotta earn my trust as a fan. He hasn’t done anything yet, to indicate that, since he hasn’t made any trades. But I’ll agree that JR’s already a massive upgrade over Benning, in just the way he communicates with the media. 

 

[N4ZZY]

4 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

I would do 7.5 miilion X 5 years for his next contract if he will go for it, I do think he likes it here in Vancouver.

Really? Do you think he’s worth 7.5M based on his performance this season? I mean, even the past few seasons. 

 

If he would take 7M over 5 years, I might be okay with that too. 

 

Would bring him to 29 years old. I can’t imagine if he’s slow now, how much slower he’d be at 29/30 years old. 

 

[N4ZZY]

8 minutes ago, RomanP said:

Sorry, we didn't give up high 1st round pick. It was conditional and we ended up giving up a 1st round the year of the bubble playoffs (second round for us). It ended up being 20th overall pick - by no means "high".

Do you remember the prospect that was selected by the Lightning via our pick? 

 

[RomanP]

7 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

Do you remember the prospect that was selected by the Lightning via our pick? 

 

Yes, I do. Tampa traded that pick to the Devils for Blake Coleman and Devils ended up selecting Shakir Mukhamadullin, who was projected to go deep in the 2nd round. Still plays in KHL at the moment.

[N4ZZY]

Just now, RomanP said:

Yes, I do. Tampa traded that pick to the Devils for Blake Coleman and Devils ended up selecting Shakir Mukhamadullin, who was projected to go deep in the 2nd round. Still plays in KHL at the moment.

Is Shakir projected to be a good player? 

 

[RomanP]

3 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

Is Shakir projected to be a good player? 

 

Hard to say. Had a major shoulder surgery.

[Guest]

18 hours ago, nameci said:

Hi Kilgore.  When I say fans could well be disappointed with the return for Miller, I am thinking of the unrealistic proposals and expectations of some Canuck fans.  I think JR will do fine with any trades which are made.  I think that he will be able to create cap space and fill in some holes with the incoming players, but those people who think Miller will net us Kappo, Lafreniere and Schneider will be disappointed.
 Check out the fan forum sites of some other teams and you will see that their valuation of potential trade candidates is dramatically different than you read on this site.  Don’t get me wrong, I have been a fan since Barry Wilkins scored the Canucks’ first goal against Dennis DeJordy.  I want JR to improve the team as much as possible with any upcoming trades, I have just tempered my expectations somewhat.  I think that’s a wise course of action, but I would be happy to be pleasantly surprised with the return.

I think so as well.  

 

People started dreaming big in this Miller trade and fans started throwing out ideas that just built on each other.  It's not based in fact.  

Rangers aren't trading Laffreniere to us straight up for Miller.  They're also not trading Schneider away without getting a good RHD back.  Schneider is playing minutes for them so they would be weakening their team if they did that. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, kilgore said:

- Maybe Miller is dead set to move back to the US.  In a lot of ways I don't blame him with all the *&^% he's gone through here. From Bennings bumbling of the team makeup, to COVID mandate differences, and just to play again for a city in his home country.

....but maybe not

I wouldn't blame him either.  If you're a player now you're looking at all the games in US with full capacity, more reasonable Covid rules.  

 

Meanwhile in Canada you're playing to empty buildings and getting randomly given an extra 10 days to quarantine at the border even when you have no symptoms (Boeser, Dickinson, DiGiuseppe).