Discussion Q&A With The Athletic Regarding Canucks

[Warhippy]

It's a mish mash so I'll post the link and try to get it formatted properly.  Some interesting stuff though regarding players, prices and off season.

 

https://theathletic.com/3560536/2022/09/02/canucks-mailbag-prospects-trade-lundkvist/

 

The sun’s quietly starting to set a fair bit earlier, the calendar’s officially flipped to September and NHL players are in the process of moving back to their respective teams’ cities — hockey season is right around the corner.

 

Subscribers filled our Canucks mailbag with questions, as usual, covering everything from options for upgrading the blueline to Canucks prospects and yes, J.T. Miller as well.

 

Let’s dive in!

 

What do the analytics say about the probability of an ascension to the mean for Dickinson? Was last year an anomaly? How are his relationships with teammates and the coaching staff? — Geoff P.

 

Jason Dickinson’s lacklustre performance last year definitely doesn’t align with the player that we saw in Dallas. He played three seasons as a regular NHLer before joining the Canucks and contributed at a fringe third-line value in each of those years according to colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s GSVA model.

 

Dickinson’s never moved the needle offensively, his career-high is only 22 points, but his rangy, checking style consistently delivered excellent defensive results that helped his line control play and rarely get scored on.

 

This isn’t just an “analytics” take either. In 2020-21, he was fourth among all Stars forwards in five-on-five ice-time per game, averaging more minutes than the likes of Jamie Benn and even Roope Hintz who was a point-per-game producer. The coaching staff must have also seen strong defensive traits in Dickinson, otherwise, there’s no reason for them to have handed him so many minutes.

 

All of that should be the reason to believe in a bounce back, right? Well, that’s the glass half-full perspective.

 

The glass-half-empty perspective is that maybe we’re realizing that Dickinson just isn’t very effective outside of Dallas’ system. Dallas played an insufferably boring, low-event style that promoted defence above all under Rick Bowness. That seems like the absolute perfect fit for Dickinson’s game, which offers no offence but some redeemable checking qualities. The Canucks, like most NHL teams, play with a very different structure and tempo than the Stars.

 

I’d be curious to know how Bruce Boudreau views Dickinson right now. The two faced off a lot against each other in the Central Division, back when Boudreau coached the Wild. Because of that, Boudreau came into Vancouver gushing about what Dickinson can do when he’s on top of his game. Dickinson earned tons of opportunities early, averaging nearly 16 minutes per game in his first eight games under Boudreau. That ice-time tailed off pretty significantly as his game never elevated.

 

I’m sure Dickinson will look at least somewhat better with a clean slate — the early PK struggles, for example, were very hard on him mentally — and his track record would suggest he can be so much better, but we’ll see if he can replicate his defensive value outside of Dallas’ environment.

 

Do you have an under-the-radar breakout candidate for the Canucks this season? Could be one of the new additions, an emerging prospect, or someone on the team. (Not a Podkolzin/Kuzmenko/Mikheyev etc) — Taylor H.

 

I don’t have one in particular that stands out, but there are a few guys beyond the obvious breakout candidates that I’ll be keeping an eye on.

 

Jack Rathbone possesses a pretty exciting toolkit. There are definitely defensive quirks he needs to clean up, but he could become an impact player within the next couple of years if he’s able to improve his own zone details.

 

The odds are stacked against Travis Dermott being anything more than a third-pair defender, but there’s at least some chance that he can still break out. With Vancouver running the same blueline back, Dermott will be forced into a top-four role at some point in the season. If Dermott can take the next step, it’d be huge because he’d help the club’s breakout issues and more importantly, he’d solve some of the team’s right-side problems.

 

I’m not sure how much he can help Vancouver this season, but I’m curious to see Linus Karlsson. He had a monster year in the SHL and while I’m concerned that his lacklustre skating could force him to the wing rather than centre, he took a huge step in his development last year.

 

Why do I keep getting the feeling that the J.T. Miller situation is turning into Kesler 2.0 and that the Canucks will end up with a Luca Sbisa-type package? Talk me down, please. — Jerry C.

 

I don’t blame you for being concerned about Miller’s trade value. Patrik Allvin’s been pretty honest that the offers haven’t been strong to this poin

 

The problem for the Canucks is that it’s been hard to ask for a king’s ransom when potential trade partners have had a lot of other options to choose from. More scoring forwards hit the market than many expected. I don’t think many people had the likes of Matthew Tkachuk, Alex DeBrincat, Oliver Bjorkstrand and Max Pacioretty being traded, for example. If you’re a team like Carolina, why would you surrender tons of assets to pry Miller away when you can get paid to take on Paciorett

 

The abundant supply of scoring forwards was compounded by a team like Boston no longer needing forward help with the returns of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci or a team like Philadelphia not being able to clear the cap space to bi

 

With the exception of Tkachuk, what forward has been able to command a big trade haul for his team since the trade deadline? Miller’s still worth something significant but I’ve tempered my expectations for what a return would look like if the club decided to trade hi

 

If, as rumours suggest, one of Quinn or OEL might get a run of games on the right side, which is the better option? — Jonah 

 

My initial preference would be to try Ekman-Larsson on the right side instead of Hughes. Both players have limited experience playing their off side, but Hughes hasn’t ever done it in the NHL. Secondly, Vancouver’s blue line is so subpar from No.3 to No.6 that they need Hughes to carry the backend as an elite presence. Anything short of that could put the team in trouble. With those kinds of extremely lofty expectations, I wouldn’t want to throw a wrench in Hughes’ way that could harm his performance.

 

I think the Canucks’ biggest obstacle with the idea of shifting OEL or Hughes to the right side for them to play together is how would you construct a competent second pair? A Dermott-Myers second pair, for example, wouldn’t cut it unless Dermott takes a big step.

 

Have you heard anything about how Pettersson’s offseason training has been going so far? — Ella J.

 

The last I heard in around late May or early June was that he started training earlier than usual this offseason and that he’s really determined to get back to the playoffs.

 

I haven’t looked into what his training focus has been this offseason but a couple of years ago I spoke to both him and his trainer about what a typical summer of training looks like.

 

Pettersson’s usually worked with Robert Lygdbäck, the head of strength and conditioning for Växjö Lakers, the SHL team that Pettersson played for. (Side note, Robert’s brother Magnus is a world-renowned trainer who’s worked with celebrities like Harry Styles, Katy Perry and Ben Affleck.)

 

At the start of an offseason, Pettersson and Robert usually meet up for coffee. In that meeting, they’ll work together to identify specific goals. For example, going into his sophomore season, Pettersson “wanted to develop repeated sprint ability, sort of like going to turns loaded and coming out of there explosive” according to Robert. Based on Pettersson’s goals, Robert will brainstorm what kind of training to prioritize. Pettersson will also lay out his summer schedule in terms of events or travel (e.g.: he needed to go to Vegas after his rookie campaign for the NHL Awards). Robert will work around that and then essentially map out what Pettersson should do for every training session that entire summer, adjusting on the fly if necessary based on how Pettersson’s body responds.

 

“Elias would go for training five to seven times a week under my schedule,” said Robert. “Then I know Elias, he probably went for more sessions on his own without telling me,” he said laughing.

 

Robert’s training is a lot more intricate than a layman person’s gym workout. There’s a lot of thought put into ensuring that every plane of rotation is checked off in the workouts, with excruciatingly difficult variations where some exercises may be done where every single rep is held for five seconds, on one leg and with one arm to really test his body control and inner core strength.

 

There’d be a fun training day mixed in once per week or so dedicated to just hand-eye coordination/badminton as well.

 

I’m sure priorities have changed over the last couple of offseasons though and I’m looking forward to hearing how his training evolved this summer.

 

If we traded for a guy like Nils Lundkvist what are you guys willing to pay if you were the Nucks? Do you guys see him as a top-four calibre defenseman? — Jugpreet B.

 

Larry Brooks reported on Thursday that the Rangers are looking to trade Lundkvist, who’s frustrated and looking for a better situation. New York’s loaded on the right side with Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba and Braden Schneider so it’s easy to see why Lundkvist would like a fresh start.

 

Is Lundkvist worth a roll of the dice? For a lot of teams, considering the presumably affordable price, I’d say yes. Lundkvist developed really well in Sweden since being a first-round pick in 2018, winning the Salming Trophy as the best Swedish-born defenseman in the SHL in 2020-21. Lundkvist’s transition to North America this past season did not go smoothly which is definitely a concern. The 22-year-old right-shot defender is a very smart, talented player though and based on his track record, still has a chance of panning out as an impact player.

 

I’m not sure that the Canucks should be one of the teams seriously bidding for him though. Lundkvist checks the positional box, but he’d be a poor stylistic fit in Vancouver. Lundkvist is a small offensive defender with a great shot, inconsistent own-zone play and power-play quarterback potential. The Canucks already have Hughes but also Rathbone, who’s a better prospect at this juncture. Lundkvist’s offensive/power-play skill set could be a bit redundant. I saw some fans suggest swapping Rathbone for Lundkvist for handedness purposes, but the Rangers already have a very similar left-handed prospect in Zac Jones, so I’m not sure if that would be a fit for New York and I’m not sure I’d even do that if I was Vancouver.

 

Don’t get me wrong, Lundkvist would still upgrade this blueline if he hits. It’s just that he’s not going to be as useful of a player on a team like Vancouver compared to a club that actually needs a power-play quarterback type of defenseman.

 

I’d probably kick tires just to see what the cost is, but I certainly wouldn’t be bidding much.

 

As it stands today, which team is closer to winning the cup; the Canucks or the Kraken? — John S.

 

It depends on what your definition of closer is. Vancouver’s much closer to entering its competitive window with this core but it’s fair to wonder if the club has given itself a strong enough chance to actually win a Cup within that timeframe. The Canucks might become a good team that’s never truly elite in this upcoming window.

 

As for Seattle, I’m not a fan of the way they’ve been building their team. The Kraken didn’t play the expansion draft well and are kind of in this weird middle ground where they’re spending money and handing out long-term contracts like they want to be competitive without actually having a good core in place yet.

 

I’d frame it this way: The Canucks will have the first crack at building a contender because they have top players like Elias Pettersson, Hughes, Thatcher Demko and Miller that Seattle doesn’t. But there’s no guarantee Vancouver will actually turn that strong core into an elite team because the task ahead (building a strong blueline, having elite depth from top to bottom, eventually replacing players like Miller that may be too expensive to keep) will be challenging given the weak prospect pool and cap situation.

 

Is the new super-group of managers, especially Rutherford running the group, going to either shut out all the talk of ownership being too involved and being responsible for bad decisions or actually be able to stop bad decisions due to ownership pressure to win now? No desire to look like how Philly does now — Colin F.

 

I doubt Rutherford would have taken this job if he wasn’t assured at least some level of autonomy. When he was introduced to the media, with Francesco Aquilini right by his side, Rutherford addressed the elephant in the room, “I’m going to say what GMs are always afraid to say … The most important part of being a GM is managing up.” Given where Rutherford’s at in his career, however, nobody figured he’s coming into Vancouver looking to blow things up and rebuild. It was always going to be some kind of retool.

 

Unfortunately, executing an on-the-fly retool hasn’t been easy because the Canucks’ most obvious trade chips are scoring forwards which haven’t been worth much on the trade market. That’s probably a big reason why we haven’t seen major surgery with this core yet.

 

Why haven’t the Canucks traded a winger to an NHL team with forward needs and are stocked with defensemen? — Jose D.

 

In a world where Bjorkstrand, who scored 28 goals and 57 points last season, is only worth a third and fourth-round pick it’s hard to see how a player like Conor Garland or Brock Boeser nets a blue-chip defence prospect or a young, established top-four contributor.

 

How important is handedness really? For centres, D-men, wingers. You could do a series on this… — Andrew L.

 

Handedness definitely matters when strategizing how to build out a power play. Let’s take the Canucks’ PP1 setup from last season, for example. Miller was the Canucks’ primary play creator from the half-wall. In that specific setup, the Canucks would want another left-handed shot in the bumper (Bo Horvat) for the one-timer option. You also want a right-handed shot in the net-front (Brock Boeser) so that if Miller makes a pass down low to goal line, a right-hand shot can make a one-touch pass to the left-shot bumper for a quick tic-tac-toe type of chance.

 

The specific handedness preferences for the power-play vary and are dependent on the scheme/plays you want to run, but it definitely matters.

 

It’s always nice to have both left and right-handed centres on the roster so that you’re covered for different face-off situations.

 

I’d argue handedness doesn’t matter as much for wingers at five-on-five. The Canucks, for example, have a ton of wingers that can play both sides.

 

Whereas many wingers can swap sides with no problem, it’s obviously a lot rarer with defensemen. That’s where I’d argue handedness matters most overall. Breakouts, for example, can be a lot more challenging on a defender’s off side because the angles at which they’re seeing the ice and making plays are just completely different.

[JM_]

45 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Why haven’t the Canucks traded a winger to an NHL team with forward needs and are stocked with defensemen? — Jose D.

 

In a world where Bjorkstrand, who scored 28 goals and 57 points last season, is only worth a third and fourth-round pick it’s hard to see how a player like Conor Garland or Brock Boeser nets a blue-chip defence prospect or a young, established top-four contributor.

 

found this one the most interesting. The market is just too stingy to make significant d upgrades this season.

 

Still hoping to see DeHaan sign to give us a try at:

 

Hughes-OEL

DeHaan-Myers

Rathbone-Schenn

 

Edited September 2, 2022 by JM_

[DeNiro]

2 minutes ago, JM_ said:

found this one the most interesting. The market is just too stingy to make significant d upgrades this season.

 

Still hoping to see DeHaan sign to give us a try at:

 

Hughes-OEL

DeHaan-Myers

Rathbone-Schenn

 

Agreed.

 

Thats the best we can hope for this season I think.
 

We could also slot Dermott or Poolman in on one of the bottom two pairs as well.

[Warhippy]

Some interesting thoughts in there for sure.

 

good to see Petey working out so hard and hungry

[KKnight]

5 hours ago, JM_ said:

found this one the most interesting. The market is just too stingy to make significant d upgrades this season.

 

Still hoping to see DeHaan sign to give us a try at:

 

Hughes-OEL

DeHaan-Myers

Rathbone-Schenn

 

Definitely not a great defense. It's not horrible though. If we are in a playoff position come tdl, maybe we luck out and get a fair price on an upgrade. 

[Crabcakes]

6 minutes ago, KKnight said:

Definitely not a great defense. It's not horrible though. If we are in a playoff position come tdl, maybe we luck out and get a fair price on an upgrade. 

It remains the single biggest need for the Canucks (top 4 RHD) but they need to remain patient and vigilant.  I know that they are looking, the opportunity just does not exist at the moment.

[KKnight]

19 minutes ago, Crabcakes said:

It remains the single biggest need for the Canucks (top 4 RHD) but they need to remain patient and vigilant.  I know that they are looking, the opportunity just does not exist at the moment.

Well I'm sure there would be options out there, but either we can't afford or it the cost would be way too high in assets. 

[Stierlitz]

8 hours ago, JM_ said:

Still hoping to see DeHaan sign to give us a try at:

 

Hughes-OEL

DeHaan-Myers

Rathbone-Schenn

 

 

[JM_]

10 hours ago, KKnight said:

Definitely not a great defense. It's not horrible though. If we are in a playoff position come tdl, maybe we luck out and get a fair price on an upgrade. 

tbh I'd be very happy with average given the options the team has right now. 

[Crabcakes]

10 hours ago, Stierlitz said:

 

31 year old free agent, made $5.4M on a $4.55 AAV contract last year.  He's a left shot but plays both sides.  

 

I can only think that they're still in because Poolman's health is dicey and is by no means a sure thing.  He would be the weak link in the top 4 if he's even an option anyways.    

 

I'm sure that Hughes and OEL can play on the right but would they be able to play at their optimal level?  If one of them moves to the right side, who would play 2nd pair on the left?  So with the addition of de Haan they may be experimenting which one of the 3 would be the best option on the right.  

 

Also, fitting de Haan in under the cap is an issue

 

I see this as a band-aid short term move that creates a cap issue.  Allvin seems much more deliberate than that.

 

Is this our D?

 

de Haan     Hughes

OEL            Myers

Rathbone   Schenn

Dermott      Burroughs

 

Or do we see Schenn paired with Hughes again?