The Rebuild (Proposals/Discussion/and Tears!) (Long Read)

[J.I.A.H.N]

What is the famous quote? "The definition of insanity, is repeatedly doing the same thing, and expecting different results!" IMO, I think that is where we are. We have these great forwards, 1 offensive defenseman, and an injured Goalie.

 

The truth is, we are so poorly constructed, and confined so much by our cap, it isn't funny!  IMO, "IF" we were to stand pat, and keep our team, the way it is, we still need to move players, just to stay cap compliant, and we would have less of our forward group, and would still not have any RHD. And to boot, would still be hard against the cap! Yes, it starts getting better in 2 years, when Myers is gone, but that only gives us the cap to replace him.

 

And there are no guarantees that we will get that 4 million cap increase, Bettman promised. My bet is it is less..........but in fact, no one knows, so it is impossible to plan for that increase, when recent evidence, says it can not be counted on.

 

So that leaves us at today, and leaves us in a mess.

 

The reality is we are in the 7th to last spot, and will probably stay in that spot or close, if nothing is done. So what should we do? Well, we can wait 2 to 3 years, and see if we can draft and sign our way out of it, but truthfully, that only makes us a mediocre team at best within those 3 years.......still fighting for a playoff spot with teams that are in rebuild themselves, and may have a head start on us. A mediocre team, that then has a 27 year old Pettersson and a 26 year old Hughes, and a 30 year old Demko. That sounds good, but we would also have a 33 year old Miller and a 31 year old Horvat. Never mind a 2000 year old OEL, still taking up 7 million in cap for 2 more years.

 

We need to hire Burke, and Gillis (Joke) sort of ?????. The reason I say this is that we need visionaries, that can create, communicate and implement a plan. Fans would accept that route, if we knew there was a plan and it was being executed by competent people.

 

The value of our assets which should be traded, have enough value, to stock the fridge, with excellent prospects, which does not get us there alone, which gives us the ELC's that are needed to be able to sign other veterans, to fill in the missing pieces. But not until we have acquired the prospect depth so urgently needed.

 

Horvat, Miller, Kuzmeko, and Schenn should be traded this TDL and Boeser, Garland, Mikheyev, and Myers should be traded this summer. Yes, it is a hell of a turn over, but each one of them should give us some young return in assets.

 

*Horvat should get us our best return..............................Horvat to Carolina for Morrow and a 1st (at a minimum)

 Miller has value despite what some say.........................a Miller to the Islanders for Bailey, Raty and a 1st, saves us 3 million, Bailey can be bought out, and still save 5.5 million

*Kuzmenko is in his prime, and also has solid value.......I believe Kuzmenko to Washington for Ilorio/Lapierre and a 1st is reasonable, and I think OV would love it

 Schenn is just Schenn and so well respected................I think we could squeeze a 2nd out of someone 

 

* Note Both Horvat and Kuzmenko should be allowed to be contacted about their future, prior to signing. This gives us additional value, and maybe in Horvat's case we squeeze out a little more? It should be noted that all 3 picks are from teams with later, less valuable firsts, which allows for the expectation of higher value prospects.

 

These are our best peaces to move at this TDL and work in several ways, including dropping us further in the standings.

 

The summers trades of Garland, Boeser, Mikheyev, and Myers, will bring us lesser returns for the 2024 draft. But the result of moving all these players, drops us down, and gives us an incredible "Own Pick", which this year, could be in the 1 to 4 area, and next year in the 1/2/3 area. Never mind, what it does to later round picks, where we may pick up a bonus player, who actually makes the bigs.

 

This is all "Pie in the Sky", if we do not have management and ownership with vision. There is so many things that can be done, to improve our future, but a plan, a coach, a GM, and a owner that are all on the same page, would be a great start.

 

[hammertime]

11 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

What is the famous quote? "The definition of insanity, is repeatedly doing the same thing, and expecting different results!" IMO, I think that is where we are.

 

Yep!

[Alflives]

Clearly our owner hired this management to implement a plan that follows his insisted upon direction.  And that direction isn’t rebuilding.  It’s to build an improved support group around a core that’s here (five players). So make moves that are to compete every year.  Management has a year and a half left in their contracts.  They are not going to make rebuilding moves.  If we trade a core guy (Bo) then expect NHL guys back as the key parts.  Any Futures will be flipped for NHL players.  That’s the plan. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Alflives

[OldFaithfulCap]

Sometimes i feel like Alvin's job is to clear salary space and he's numbers focused. His moves this year so far are all about saving cap space. Stillman saved them 1 mn in cap and avoided a dickinson contract (though 2nd is high cost). Bear/pederson trade involves 2 players who the canucks can walk away from. Holtby, Ferland are off the cap next year and they've avoided trying to add more decent guys and maximizing the ltir. 

 

Of course signing Boeser and Miller to deals seems to contradict the cap saving idea and i may be way off. But i guess if you had thought that both would play well this season then they'd be tradeable assets to small market teams who struggle to re-sign guys.

 

The trade deadline will be interesting. If they can move big pieces for high draft picks and younger potential guys and move boeser (and even miller) then alvin will have done his cap saving job.

[Alflives]

15 minutes ago, OldFaithfulCap said:

Sometimes i feel like Alvin's job is to clear salary space and he's numbers focused. His moves this year so far are all about saving cap space. Stillman saved them 1 mn in cap and avoided a dickinson contract (though 2nd is high cost). Bear/pederson trade involves 2 players who the canucks can walk away from. Holtby, Ferland are off the cap next year and they've avoided trying to add more decent guys and maximizing the ltir. 

 

Of course signing Boeser and Miller to deals seems to contradict the cap saving idea and i may be way off. But i guess if you had thought that both would play well this season then they'd be tradeable assets to small market teams who struggle to re-sign guys.

 

The trade deadline will be interesting. If they can move big pieces for high draft picks and younger potential guys and move boeser (and even miller) then alvin will have done his cap saving job.

Management is (IMHAO) under the owner’s direction to keep our core five. So that’s why Allvin is moving out support players for less expensive ones coming in.  He’s creating cap room to extend Miller, Bo, and this summer Petey.  

[OldFaithfulCap]

41 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Management is (IMHAO) under the owner’s direction to keep our core five. So that’s why Allvin is moving out support players for less expensive ones coming in.  He’s creating cap room to extend Miller, Bo, and this summer Petey.  

You may be right. I personally don't think that core (bo, miller, hughes, pettersson and demko) is good enough. I wonder if Alvin and Aqua have changed as they've apparently not done too much to keep Bo and they have said everyone but Pettey is tradeable. I'd like them to move sooner than later but then with the losses pilling up we can wait for the right deal. Frustration by players worries me but then again that's anyone who isn't winning.

[J.I.A.H.N]

3 hours ago, Alflives said:

Clearly our owner hired this management to implement a plan that follows his insisted upon direction.  And that direction isn’t rebuilding.  It’s to build an improved support group around a core that’s here (five players). So make moves that are to compete every year.  Management has a year and a half left in their contracts.  They are not going to make rebuilding moves.  If we trade a core guy (Bo) then expect NHL guys back as the key parts.  Any Futures will be flipped for NHL players.  That’s the plan. 

Here is the thing Alf

 

Our current team, is 7th from last, obviously not very good. The core has, for all intents and purposes reached their prime. To move out players with cap, for lesser players, does save small amounts of cap, but gives us lesser players, there by weakening an all ready weak team. So, if we are 7th from the bottom now, and weaken the team, expect worse results.

 

Even moving Horvat for other pieces that either have a lesser value, because they are lesser players, or other cap dumps, that other teams are trying to move, saves us that million dollars or so, but again lessens the team, but does not move the cap far...........it is just shifting shells to hide the pea.

 

The only way, to get out of this is to move out asset for future potential.

 

The only way, we move asset out and get a blue chip, ELC contract, is to move out Pettersson or Hughes. But then how many teams have exactly what we need, that are prepared to let go of something they had drafted and planned to fill a hole and keep their own cap down with.

 

Does Columbus really give you Jiricek, Johnson and a 1st for Pettersson.................I am truly doubting that...........would we take it? Do you see Anaheim, LA, Detroit, or New Jersey doing this type of deal?

 

It is a mess, and they need to clean up the mess, before starting to build again. 

[BPA]

1 hour ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

Here is the thing Alf

 

Our current team, is 7th from last, obviously not very good. The core has, for all intents and purposes reached their prime. To move out players with cap, for lesser players, does save small amounts of cap, but gives us lesser players, there by weakening an all ready weak team. So, if we are 7th from the bottom now, and weaken the team, expect worse results.

 

Even moving Horvat for other pieces that either have a lesser value, because they are lesser players, or other cap dumps, that other teams are trying to move, saves us that million dollars or so, but again lessens the team, but does not move the cap far...........it is just shifting shells to hide the pea.

 

The only way, to get out of this is to move out asset for future potential.

 

The only way, we move asset out and get a blue chip, ELC contract, is to move out Pettersson or Hughes. But then how many teams have exactly what we need, that are prepared to let go of something they had drafted and planned to fill a hole and keep their own cap down with.

 

Does Columbus really give you Jiricek, Johnson and a 1st for Pettersson.................I am truly doubting that...........would we take it? Do you see Anaheim, LA, Detroit, or New Jersey doing this type of deal?

 

It is a mess, and they need to clean up the mess, before starting to build again. 

Yup.

 

Clean house and start from scratch.

[garthsbutcher]

There will NEVER be a proper rebuild until we have a different owner

[Mr. Quacks]

Shouldn't even be a consideration! This group is closer to competing than rebuilding. We've got a solid group of players with heart and battle it out every night. We will not get full value back on player like Horvat and Miller - they're just too good. Demko on his day is one of the best in the league and we gotta support Boeser into playing like goalscorer we know he is!

[Coconuts]

I'd do those trades, Bo would need more coming back and I think Kuzmenko fetches less

 

I think Kuzmenko brings back a 1st 

 

I think the Miller to NYI is close, might not be Raty coming back though 

 

I'm open to keeping Garland and Mikheyev, gotta play someone in our top six, I think Boeser's value can be rehabilitated but I'm open to moving him

 

You might be able to move Myers at 50% during the summer or at some point closer to next season's deadline 

[Coconuts]

Mind you, I also see Horvat leaving as inevitable and if he goes Miller absolutely should too as he doesn't fit the timeline of a rebuild

 

Folks can drone on and on about ownership all they like but this group ain't close to being a surefire playoff team let alone a contender 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Mind you, I also see Horvat leaving as inevitable and if he goes Miller absolutely should too as he doesn't fit the timeline of a rebuild

 

Folks can drone on and on about ownership all they like but this group ain't close to being a surefire playoff team let alone a contender 

And a rebuilding direction would be the owner’s changing his direction.  He’d have to extend the contracts of the current management group and give them 5-7 years to properly rebuild.  Will our owner make that kind of philosophical change?  

[Coconuts]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

And a rebuilding direction would be the owner’s changing his direction.  He’d have to extend the contracts of the current management group and give them 5-7 years to properly rebuild.  Will our owner make that kind of philosophical change?  

I mean, he's gonna outlast this management group anyway 

 

But clearly whatever's been going on isn't working, and the fanbase will grow more and more apathetic as time goes on if things don't change for the better

 

The Canucks may be the only game in town but it's easier than ever to simply follow another team, to stream, to buy NHL packages, to order the merch of other teams 

 

Think of it this way, there's an entire younger generation that's only ever known the Canucks as having been mediocre, is that what the Aquilini's want? 

 

Are they gonna grow up spending their money on a mediocre product in a province that's already critical of the Canucks to begin with? 

[Ted Lasso]

22 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

What is the famous quote? "The definition of insanity, is repeatedly doing the same thing, and expecting different results!" IMO, I think that is where we are. We have these great forwards, 1 offensive defenseman, and an injured Goalie.

 

The truth is, we are so poorly constructed, and confined so much by our cap, it isn't funny!  IMO, "IF" we were to stand pat, and keep our team, the way it is, we still need to move players, just to stay cap compliant, and we would have less of our forward group, and would still not have any RHD. And to boot, would still be hard against the cap! Yes, it starts getting better in 2 years, when Myers is gone, but that only gives us the cap to replace him.

 

And there are no guarantees that we will get that 4 million cap increase, Bettman promised. My bet is it is less..........but in fact, no one knows, so it is impossible to plan for that increase, when recent evidence, says it can not be counted on.

 

So that leaves us at today, and leaves us in a mess.

 

The reality is we are in the 7th to last spot, and will probably stay in that spot or close, if nothing is done. So what should we do? Well, we can wait 2 to 3 years, and see if we can draft and sign our way out of it, but truthfully, that only makes us a mediocre team at best within those 3 years.......still fighting for a playoff spot with teams that are in rebuild themselves, and may have a head start on us. A mediocre team, that then has a 27 year old Pettersson and a 26 year old Hughes, and a 30 year old Demko. That sounds good, but we would also have a 33 year old Miller and a 31 year old Horvat. Never mind a 2000 year old OEL, still taking up 7 million in cap for 2 more years.

 

We need to hire Burke, and Gillis (Joke) sort of ?????. The reason I say this is that we need visionaries, that can create, communicate and implement a plan. Fans would accept that route, if we knew there was a plan and it was being executed by competent people.

 

The value of our assets which should be traded, have enough value, to stock the fridge, with excellent prospects, which does not get us there alone, which gives us the ELC's that are needed to be able to sign other veterans, to fill in the missing pieces. But not until we have acquired the prospect depth so urgently needed.

 

Horvat, Miller, Kuzmeko, and Schenn should be traded this TDL and Boeser, Garland, Mikheyev, and Myers should be traded this summer. Yes, it is a hell of a turn over, but each one of them should give us some young return in assets.

 

*Horvat should get us our best return..............................Horvat to Carolina for Morrow and a 1st (at a minimum)

 Miller has value despite what some say.........................a Miller to the Islanders for Bailey, Raty and a 1st, saves us 3 million, Bailey can be bought out, and still save 5.5 million

*Kuzmenko is in his prime, and also has solid value.......I believe Kuzmenko to Washington for Ilorio/Lapierre and a 1st is reasonable, and I think OV would love it

 Schenn is just Schenn and so well respected................I think we could squeeze a 2nd out of someone 

 

* Note Both Horvat and Kuzmenko should be allowed to be contacted about their future, prior to signing. This gives us additional value, and maybe in Horvat's case we squeeze out a little more? It should be noted that all 3 picks are from teams with later, less valuable firsts, which allows for the expectation of higher value prospects.

 

These are our best peaces to move at this TDL and work in several ways, including dropping us further in the standings.

 

The summers trades of Garland, Boeser, Mikheyev, and Myers, will bring us lesser returns for the 2024 draft. But the result of moving all these players, drops us down, and gives us an incredible "Own Pick", which this year, could be in the 1 to 4 area, and next year in the 1/2/3 area. Never mind, what it does to later round picks, where we may pick up a bonus player, who actually makes the bigs.

 

This is all "Pie in the Sky", if we do not have management and ownership with vision. There is so many things that can be done, to improve our future, but a plan, a coach, a GM, and a owner that are all on the same page, would be a great start.

 

I enjoy your posts. Great proposal

[J.I.A.H.N]

28 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

I enjoy your posts. Great proposal

Thanks Kenny

 

Yes, as much as they are proposals, it is really the expected value of the return I am looking for and type of return.

 

I mean, who knows what teams will offer, but I would be pssed if we were to get less.

[J.I.A.H.N]

6 hours ago, Coconuts said:

I'd do those trades, Bo would need more coming back and I think Kuzmenko fetches less

 

I think Kuzmenko brings back a 1st 

 

I think the Miller to NYI is close, might not be Raty coming back though 

 

I'm open to keeping Garland and Mikheyev, gotta play someone in our top six, I think Boeser's value can be rehabilitated but I'm open to moving him

 

You might be able to move Myers at 50% during the summer or at some point closer to next season's deadline 

I get what you say about Kuzmenko, but I thought about it alot...........

 

Here is why I said what his value is....................

 

#1............He is on route to a 75+ point season

#2............He is 26 years old

#3............His cost at the TDL is aprox. $300,000 of which the Canucks can carry 50%

 

IMO, Washington dreams Lapierre would get 75+ points (and we are talking about 3 years from now if possible) and their 1st will be in the 24 to 32 OA range, which would be almost a 2nd rounder..............

 

IMO, when you weigh everything including the possibility to resign him, and have him play with OV and company, it is a good pick up for Washington...........

 

If anything we add a B prospect to level it out, but not have Washington drop any of our demands. 

[hammertime]

Kuzzmenko's value will never be higher. 

[Ted Lasso]

12 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

Thanks Kenny

 

Yes, as much as they are proposals, it is really the expected value of the return I am looking for and type of return.

 

I mean, who knows what teams will offer, but I would be pssed if we were to get less.

Yeah, what I like are your trade targets. Good mix of positional needs, NHL readiness, and realism on returns.

[J.I.A.H.N]

50 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

Yeah, what I like are your trade targets. Good mix of positional needs, NHL readiness, and realism on returns.

Thanks again, Buds. LOL, Not everyone thinks my proposals are all that real.........but I only spitball in fantasy...........at least until I get the Canuck GM job, anyways! LOL