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[Rumours/Reports] Official Roberto Luongo Trade Thread (Keep it all here please)


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LOL Allen

Schenn is vicious.

He'll fight

He'll get us almost 300 more hits.

20 points

the right handed d-man we've needed

is 22 years old, amazing potential

Allen:

Won't fight, and if he does, he'll get knocked around

Gets 1/3 the hits

Has broken 20 points ONCE.

Is 31 years old

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The more I think about this goaltender situation, the more clear it becomes 'it's a good problem to have'. So many news outlets making a crisis out of this situation, and fans (like myself at times :) ) are panicking while nothing happens.

There are, on average, 660 players in the NHL every year (bare with me, I know it's a generalization):

- 60 goaltenders - 30 #1's, 30 backups

- 120 centers

- 210 defenseman

- 270 wingers

What is the probability a teams ends up with two #1 goaltenders out of a very tiny sample size? Pretty low probability. It also means that a team looking for a #1 goaltender has smallest statistical pool to chose from. Gillis is right, he should be expecting a slam dunk return (yes, even with the contract). The numbers put the aces in Gillis's hands - I just think it's going to take a lot more time than most of us expect.

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The more I think about this goaltender situation, the more clear it becomes 'it's a good problem to have'. So many news outlets making a crisis out of this situation, and fans (like myself at times :) ) are panicking while nothing happens.

There are, on average, 660 players in the NHL every year (bare with me, I know it's a generalization):

- 60 goaltenders - 30 #1's, 30 backups

- 120 centers

- 210 defenseman

- 270 wingers

What is the probability a teams ends up with two #1 goaltenders out of a very tiny sample size? Pretty low probability. It also means that a team looking for a #1 goaltender has smallest statistical pool to chose from. Gillis is right, he should be expecting a slam dunk return (yes, even with the contract). The numbers put the aces in Gillis's hands - I just think it's going to take a lot more time than most of us expect.

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Count me with those who think Washington is a dark horse in this race. They have the requisite talent that would make Lou waive his ntc.

I think there will be another surprise team in the bidding too, one that hasn't been suggested much.

A few people have mentioned Anaheim and that could be possible but I wouldn't be surprised if there was even another.

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One thing that I'm a little surprised about is the fact that the Canucks have not elected for salary arbitration with Cory Schneider. Doing so would protect him from offer sheets. Is that option not on the table? Would it really hurt negotiations with him if the Canucks' management did that? The Canadiens have done that with Price and it seems to be an accepted strategy for protecting players from offer sheets. Choosing to leave Cory Schneider as an offer sheet target seems like a strange strategy to me...

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One thing that I'm a little surprised about is the fact that the Canucks have not elected for salary arbitration with Cory Schneider. Doing so would protect him from offer sheets. Is that option not on the table? Would it really hurt negotiations with him if the Canucks' management did that? The Canadiens have done that with Price and it seems to be an accepted strategy for protecting players from offer sheets. Choosing to leave Cory Schneider as an offer sheet target seems like a strange strategy to me...

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One thing that I'm a little surprised about is the fact that the Canucks have not elected for salary arbitration with Cory Schneider. Doing so would protect him from offer sheets. Is that option not on the table? Would it really hurt negotiations with him if the Canucks' management did that? The Canadiens have done that with Price and it seems to be an accepted strategy for protecting players from offer sheets. Choosing to leave Cory Schneider as an offer sheet target seems like a strange strategy to me...

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Mark Spector, good read

http://www.sportsnet.ca/iphone/hockey/2012/06/23/toronto_plae_leafs_vancouver_canucks_roberto_luongo_trade/

PITTSBURGH -- Vancouver general manager Mike Gillis wore his $50-million goalie around the draft like an invisible sandwich board -- "Goalie For Trade" -- checked baggage that will await him upon his return at YVR. He is doing what he's paid to do, trying to create a market for his asset that will bear maximum return for the Vancouver Canucks, but with no success to date.

He lets on like there are multiple suitors for Luongo, and flatly states that he'd be happy to have Luongo back to tandem with Cory Schneider next season, if value can't be found for the 33-year-old.

"For us to even consider trading a player of that stature is an enormous thing," Gillis told us over the draft floor rail Saturday afternoon. "We're going to do it on our terms, if we're going to do it at all."

But ask other GMs about Luongo, and the reality of Gillis' situation becomes clear.

There are only a handful of teams looking for a No. 1 goalie; only a portion of them think Luongo is the answer; even less could handle Luongo's enormous contract under their cap; and only a percentage of those would be willing to take on a deal with a decade and more than $47 million left on it.

Do the math, and the final total reads 1: The Toronto Maple Leafs.

Leafs GM Brian Burke senses this, and wishes to acquire Luongo for far, far less than Gillis is asking. "Keep him then," Burke is likely thinking, and Gillis swears he would.

"Absolutely," he says, in a way that makes the question seems a bit foolish. "We know him well. He's an excellent person and teammate. I don't see an issue with that at all."

What you need to know about a GM is that he cannot convey a sense of vulnerability here. And we must say, good GMs somehow end up getting value in a situation like this, and Gillis is a good GM.

However, we've been around the game long enough to know that when a star player like Luongo -- or Columbus' Rick Nash -- asks to be traded, he has to be removed from the group as quickly as possible. This thing can drag out all summer without an issue, but the moment those dressing room doors open for business in September there needs to be harmony within.

Having Luongo in a room he has asked to be removed from, in a role he does not favour, in a media market that will exacerbate the tension, simply does not lay the foundation for a functional dressing room or a successful season.

Gillis knows this. Columbus GM Scott Howson knows this. But for now, both must publicly state that holding their superstar is an option.

They also know, however, that there are very few trades of any magnitude that occur after about July 15th. Howson admitted as much this weekend, stating that if he doesn't have Nash moved by mid-July the chances of having his disgruntled captain back inside the Blue Jackets room heighten greatly.

That may have been the case in the past, Gillis would allow, but "perhaps the landscape is changing, so (trades) are made after July 1 now," he said. "Teams have a more set idea of what they're going into next season with.

"There's a loft of complexity in making trades … and it's going to get more complex. It's hard to find partners to make trades. Also, there aren't many free agents this year. I think (trades) will come. I think they'll come later."

There are deadlines at both ends of the Luongo deal, which makes for a delicious stand-off between two GMs who, privately, are not big fans of each other.

We're told the money-losing Florida Panthers simply will not look at a contract as stout as Luongo's, and other teams in need have filled goaltending voids elsewhere. So Gillis runs the risk of losing Burke, and having no place to send Luongo.

Burke is saying publicly that Gillis' price is too high. Privately, he may believe he is Luongo's only suitor, and shouldn't have to part with much more than Mike Komisarek.

Still, Burke risks starting the season with the underwhelming tandem of James Reimer and Ben Scrivens. If the Maple Leafs start with a 4-8 record, Gillis will be in the driver's seat. If Luongo does go elsewhere, and goaltending does the Leafs in again, Burke's job could be on the line.

Gillis risks the unrest that Luongo would bring should he return to Vancouver. Maybe Luongo's agent speaks out and rocks the boat. Maybe Luongo, under daily pestering from the media, says something that brings strife to the Canucks room.

By our eye, Burke's risks are probable, but not certain. Gillis' risks are inevitable, and once the season starts, good luck moving a contract with the heft of Luongo's. History says it is unlikely.

Free agency is nigh on July 1, when cap space will disappear like snow in springtime.

It's a dangerous game that Gillis is playing. Howson too.

Burke is right to wait -- for now. But eventually, if he wants a franchise goalie, he should find a way to make this deal.

If the Maple Leafs rode Luongo to a playoff spot, no one would second-guess the price paid to acquire him.

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Well if the CDC had their way Lu would be gone for a bag of pucks. Luckily real GMs have the final say and if we don't get the right offer Lu isn't going anywhere. Highly doubt Lu will go to winnipeg. And if there are no decent offers for Lu schneider may get shopped.

Then if nothing good comes for Schneider we sit on both goalies until the trade deadline. Where teams will be a little more desperate to throw a good offer our way. I would be happy going into the season with both goalies because that means we didn't get any good offers.

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I have to also admit. If the oilers got luongo man that would be solid. They would be a really scary team and only in need of a couple defencemen. Their offense alone will be one of the best but if they get a goalie that can steal a few games watch out.

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