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Justin Trudeau to seek Liberal leadership


KoreanHockeyFan

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He seems to be the odds-on favourite right now.  I didn't even realize anyone else was actually in the race until I went and looked it up.

According to Wikipedia there are three and none of them have ever held office before.  One is a paramedic, another is a lawyer who used to work in the PM's office in the 80's and the other is a senior government economist.

I would think Trudeau could win that race.  That would change if others throw their hat in the ring though.

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Really?

JFK served as a Commander in the US military during WW2, then went on to become a US Congressman for 6 years then went on to become a US Senator for 7 years.

After all this he went on to become the US President for only 2 years before he was assassinated.

Trudeau has been a MP for 4 years. That's it. And he's only 41 years old. No way he's ready.

He doesn't have to be 50 to be PM but he does need qualification of having been something besides a high school teacher. Canada is a G7 country. There is great responsibility in being PM of Canada. This is not Estonia or Luxembourg.

He is not ready.

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Right, because you learn a whole lot being a congressman...The only thing you learn being a congressman is the old "you scratch my back, I scratch yours."

I would rather a leader who hasn't been an MP for very long. Alot less chance that they have been corrupted by fat cat politicians.

The reality is, all you really need as a leader is charisma. If you surround yourself with the right people, you'll be successful. Or if you don't have charisma, like Harper, you can just force people to do what you want with manipulation and extortion.

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Right, because you learn a whole lot being a congressman...The only thing you learn being a congressman is the old "you scratch my back, I scratch yours."

I would rather a leader who hasn't been an MP for very long. Alot less chance that they have been corrupted by fat cat politicians.

The reality is, all you really need as a leader is charisma. If you surround yourself with the right people, you'll be successful. Or if you don't have charisma, like Harper, you can just force people to do what you want with manipulation and extortion.

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You learn the ins and outs of what being an MP means. Trudeau has been sitting as an MP for 4 years, and I'm sure he's done his fair share as his riding rep in the HoC, but what is that compared to Harper and his 16 years, or Mulclair and his 5 years as an MP/13 years in Quebec politics. Grinding it out as an MP is much more than Question Period or election season - why did you think Layton had his Quebec NDP rookies shipped off to camp and paired up with veteran house members as soon as they won their respective ridings? I guess time will tell whether Trudeau is ready for the LPC leader stage.

It's interesting you mentioned charisma though - you and I both know Harper is downright mundane (dull, boring, whatever you want to call it). It's brilliant because in any debate and in any event where there's cameras, he shifts the conversation to his bland style. It's brilliant in that he gives so little snippets or one-liners for the media to work with. As for extortion, fat chance that is happening while he is in the spotlight.

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Harper has reason to be scared.

So, what are the risks and rewards of a Trudeau dynasty for the Liberal party, for the ruling Conservatives and for the New Democrats?

For the Liberals, near-term, their leadership-selection process falls into disarray, as candidates flee the juggernaut. Few will want to throw a $75,000 admission fee away. More to the point, what donor will want to invest in a doomed campaign? There may be Grits of the Bay Street variety who decide, for the good of the party, that it cannot be a coronation, and that stalwarts such as Marc Garneau and Denis Coderre must therefore have a shot. But that's a tough sell knowing you're backing, at best, a future industry or environment minister.

But mid-term, whatever the texture of the race, Trudeau will give his party a new lease on life, even if he does little more than needle Prime Minister Stephen Harper and smile for the cameras. That's partly because Harper is now personally vulnerable. Half the population actively dislikes him. And politics is still, at root, a popularity contest.

Near-term for the ruling Conservatives, there's happy news: NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has a rival in Quebec, which will blunt the opposition leader's advance. It's divide-and-conquer: Let Trudeau attack Mulcair, and vice versa, over ground Harper no longer really needs anyhow. He has just five seats in Quebec, making the province irrelevant to his majority.

But mid-term, Harper's team has reason to fear Trudeau's charm, his particular appeal in Quebec, Ontario and B.C., and the Liberal party's time-tested ability to morph into whatever policy shape best suits its needs at any given time. Where Trudeau is strongest - likability - Harper is weakest. In year seven headed for 10, time is not on the prime minister's side in this regard. With Trudeau as his foil, it will be less easy for the PM to cast himself as the dour national bean counter, too busy with his spreadsheets to bother being human.

The PM's forays at the piano, the blue sweater, the hockey book, are fading in the public consciousness. Whether he wants to or not - clearly he resists this kind of pandering, because we haven't seen it recently even when it obviously would have helped him - he will feel pressure to retrieve Soft Harper from the crypt.

For the New Democrats, it's all bad news, near and mid-term. Trudeau's perfect fluency in French, his flair for the dramatic and the boxing match all make him a force to be reckoned with in Quebec, which historically prefers leaders with dash. Trudeau will set out first and foremost to eat the NDP's lunch. There is no reason to believe he won't meet with some success.

The wild card, of course, is Trudeau himself. If he fails to excite with some good ideas, once the initial flurry of interest abates, or if he goes supernova through some asyet unforeseen mistake - always possible for a first-time leadership candidate, but even more of a factor for the untested, the young, and those blessed or cursed with a risktaking gene - then he brings the Liberal party down around his ears and we're in a twoparty system for the foreseeable future.

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If the NDP figure they can't win on their own and the Liberals need an extra boost..(which I think they both will) and they're both invested in ousting Harper (which they should)...

I'm actually starting to like the idea of a merger. Let the Greens take over the far left, The "New LIberal Democratic Party" can bet the left/centre party that I think best suits most traditionally Canadian ideals/sentiments about governing.

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