[Report] Nucks to name new head coach following GM hire - Barry Trotz leading candidate

[DeNiro]

Our version of 'old school' differs, cause their usage of advanced stats implies they aren't old school from my perspective.

Do I have evidence he doesn't do the same thing? I have never read any piece about Trotz and advanced stats - so I assume he doesn't use them. Perhaps you have evidence he does? By his teams metrics I also assume he doesn't. Could he learn? Definitely. The question is, does he want to? Is he willing to implement new metrics into his coaching techniques? That is the million dollar question for me.

They come from the old school of coaching meaning they like to use their "gut feelings" on lines and line matchups.

AV always used to say he made decisions based on his gut feeling of who he thought was playing well, and that he knew within the first few minutes. That to me is an old school coach. You watch your players and how they're playing, and don't worry about what the other team is doing. Because you know that if everyone plays the system that you created to a t, then you believe you'll have success.

Sure some of them could have adapted and started to bring new techniques and methods into their coaching, but I still believe they're mostly "old school" coaches at heart. So they may occasionally use them as a reference, but mostly they're making decisions based on what they're seeing.

I don't know if Trotz uses them one way or another. I'm sure he's aware of them and would be willing to look at them if he thought it would give the team an edge. I personally think getting players to buy into a system and play hard is the only thing a coach needs to do. Do that, and the positive numbers will follow.

[nmcdee123]

^ I don't think he was fired, he just wasn't re-signed no?

[Madwolf]

I live a state away from Nashville, Tennessee and every time I do work down there it's nothing but Predators hats. Everyone I talked to seemed to love Trotz, and my cousin, who lives down there, was sad to see him go.

[Undrafted]

…I have never read any piece about Trotz and advanced stats - so I assume he doesn't use them. Perhaps you have evidence he does? By his teams metrics I also assume he doesn't. Could he learn? Definitely. The question is, does he want to? Is he willing to implement new metrics into his coaching techniques? That is the million dollar question for me.

I think it's very presumptuous to assume that Trotz doesn't use advanced stats just because the possession metrics in NASH weren't that high—that's can still be explained by the limitations of the roster. The fact that he managed to get the most out of a budget roster year after year, including being able to deal with the team's best players being traded away before they got too expensive is (IMO) far stronger evidence of Trotz's adaptability.

Nashville's blunder in letting him go is hopefully Vancouver's gain.

[wallstreetamigo]

It's a good question. The answer is possession stats aren't just about the forwards, they are defense as well (note: advanced stats have only been around since 07/08).

There's no doubt that there were some years he had an average or below avg forward group - but so did other teams such as Phx, NJD. There is a question whether he's capable of developing forward prospects or whether Nash drafted poorly in the forward dept. It's usually assistant coaches respon to coach defense, coaches job to coach forwards. Why has there never really been strong forwards to come out of that team? I also question his usage of the his forwards (zone starts mainly).

That team had Hamhuis, Suter, Weber for some years and have been a top 10 puck possession team exactly once. They have been in the bottom half of league more than top half under his tenure. For a defense first team, they have only been top 5 in corsi-against for one yr.

NJD hasn't had a Weber/Suter/Hamhuis in last few yrs, have weak forward group - but have been top 10 puck possession team for last 6 of 7 yrs. They are a defense first team with stellar defense possession stats - which lead to strong overall possesion stats. It's is possible.

Advanced stats are not the end all and be all though. They are useful as part of the analysis but do not on their own suggest anything concrete about how a coach would do with a different team.

I think it is just as important to get a coach who knows how to get the most out of this group. Because they are fast becoming coach killers with their inability to find their game consistently. They need someone who can motivate them to be more than they are and to stop resting on the laurels of a 2011 cup final appearance.

[wallstreetamigo]

Advanced stats as a stand alone predictor of coaching success have the same flaws as any other single factor that is used to make conclusions about anything. There are way too many variables to factor in.

[DeNiro]

This here is a man that's passionate about coaching:

One thing people have to consider about hiring Trotz is the impact it will have on attracting free agents. He has a very solid reputation as a players coach, and someone you want to play for. Add that to an organization that wants to win and is willing to spend, and you have a very desirable package.

[RunningWild]

They come from the old school of coaching meaning they like to use their "gut feelings" on lines and line matchups.

AV always used to say he made decisions based on his gut feeling of who he thought was playing well, and that he knew within the first few minutes. That to me is an old school coach. You watch your players and how they're playing, and don't worry about what the other team is doing. Because you know that if everyone plays the system that you created to a t, then you believe you'll have success.

Sure some of them could have adapted and started to bring new techniques and methods into their coaching, but I still believe they're mostly "old school" coaches at heart. So they may occasionally use them as a reference, but mostly they're making decisions based on what they're seeing.

I don't know if Trotz uses them one way or another. I'm sure he's aware of them and would be willing to look at them if he thought it would give the team an edge. I personally think getting players to buy into a system and play hard is the only thing a coach needs to do. Do that, and the positive numbers will follow.

Like I already said, advanced stats aren't everything. There will always be gut feelings and the eye test - even with the Quenvilles/MclEllans etc.

I think it's very presumptuous to assume that Trotz doesn't use advanced stats just because the possession metrics in NASH weren't that high—that's can still be explained by the limitations of the roster. The fact that he managed to get the most out of a budget roster year after year, including being able to deal with the team's best players being traded away before they got too expensive is (IMO) far stronger evidence of Trotz's adaptability.

Nashville's blunder in letting him go is hopefully Vancouver's gain.

I agree, I am making an assumption. The coaches/teams who use advanced stats have been vocal or pinpointed over time. I never saw Trotz on that list. Every team has limitations, every coach does as well. For a defense first team - which was his teams biggest asset (same with Van IMO) - they weren't as effective as then could been CA/60. Fr example, NJD has similar issues to Nash up front (def don't have a Weber) and are a stellar defense first team. It reflects in their metrics.

Advanced stats are not the end all and be all though. They are useful as part of the analysis but do not on their own suggest anything concrete about how a coach would do with a different team.

I think it is just as important to get a coach who knows how to get the most out of this group. Because they are fast becoming coach killers with their inability to find their game consistently. They need someone who can motivate them to be more than they are and to stop resting on the laurels of a 2011 cup final appearance.

I agree and have already stated advanced stats are the everything. But they are significant IMO. I am surprised nobody is questioning the fact that his team hasn't been good up front for many years. Is it drafting? Or is it his coaching? Canucks aren't stacked up front, they're gonna need a coach who can get the best out of them as well.

There are things I like about Trotz. He a western conference coach, seems patient, not many complaints from previous players. All good signs. But there are better candidates IMO.... namely Stevens.

[Undrafted]

Like I already said, advanced stats aren't everything. There will always be gut feelings and the eye test - even with the Quenvilles/MclEllans etc.

I agree, I am making an assumption. The coaches/teams who use advanced stats have been vocal or pinpointed over time. I never saw Trotz on that list. Every team has limitations, every coach does as well. For a defense first team - which was his teams biggest asset (same with Van IMO) - they weren't as effective as then could been CA/60. Fr example, NJD has similar issues to Nash up front (def don't have a Weber) and are a stellar defense first team. It reflects in their metrics.

I agree and have already stated advanced stats are the everything. But they are significant IMO. I am surprised nobody is questioning the fact that his team hasn't been good up front for many years. Is it drafting? Or is it his coaching? Canucks aren't stacked up front, they're gonna need a coach who can get the best out of them as well.

There are things I like about Trotz. He a western conference coach, seems patient, not many complaints from previous players. All good signs. But there are better candidates IMO.... namely Stevens.

Just because NSH or Trotz himself didn't trumpet his support behind analytics doesn't mean he doesn't use them—after all, he's also never publicly come out and dismissed them, either.

I don't think using NJD's metrics as a comparison is a valid point, either. While they may have been equally less talented up front, it doesn't mean they had the same kind of players. Different personnel requires the use of different tactics, which is something Trotz has demonstrated an awareness of. A good example would be how he adapted on the fly when Rinne went down with injury last season.

And you can't pin the fact that NSH being weak up front on Trotz—he's the coach, not the GM.

[RunningWild]

Just because NSH or Trotz himself didn't trumpet his support behind analytics doesn't mean he doesn't use them—after all, he's also never publicly come out and dismissed them, either.

I don't think using NJD's metrics as a comparison is a valid point, either. While they may have been equally less talented up front, it doesn't mean they had the same kind of players. Different personnel requires the use of different tactics, which is something Trotz has demonstrated an awareness of. A good example would be how he adapted on the fly when Rinne went down with injury last season.

And you can't pin the fact that NSH being weak up front on Trotz—he's the coach, not the GM.

I'd say NJD is a pretty good example for what the poster and I were discussing. They are weak up front, not stacked on the back end - yet their coach has been able to get them being one of the top possession teams in league yr after yr.

Yes, I'm assuming he doesn't implement advanced stats in his coaching. If he does, then I'm still concerned he's not getting better results with the metrics.

I am not pinning the fact Nash is weak up front on Trotz. I posed the question, are they weak up front cause of drafting or coaching? It's been a consistent problem for them for last few years - that makes it a red flag IMO.

["Bull" Horvat]

If he's willing to take an assistant role, then sure he'd be great.

If not, Linden is probably looking into guys like Desjardins, Blashill, and Johnston.

Blashill is going no where darnit

[Red Light Racicot]

IF no, then please stop making stupid speculations and assumptions. Maybe Linden talked to Benning before hiring the coach. Linden isn't stupid and he knows a lot more about hockey than anyone on this board, including you. In fact, Linden probably has a lot more NHL connections than Gillis so he knows whats up.

Are you sure? It sounds to me like youre doing the speculating. I never assumed anything.

This is nothing but concern on my behalf because I want the team to succeed. By all appearances GM and AV were not on the same page towards the end and it was a massive problem. Under Torts this same problem became unbelievably worse. I need to believe the organization will get it right this time.

What I know for a fact is that Linden is very new to this and the only decision he should be in control of is who to select as GM. What I said is not an actual slight against him because its more or less true.

What I also know for a fact is that its standard practice for the GM to make the decision on who should coach, because (for example) it is best that they are on the same page and have a similar philosophy; this way the GM will have less of a problem acquiring players the coach feels he needs.

[Undrafted]

I'd say NJD is a pretty good example for what the poster and I were discussing. They are weak up front, not stacked on the back end - yet their coach has been able to get them being one of the top possession teams in league yr after yr.

Yes, I'm assuming he doesn't implement advanced stats in his coaching. If he does, then I'm still concerned he's not getting better results with the metrics.

I am not pinning the fact Nash is weak up front on Trotz. I posed the question, are they weak up front cause of drafting or coaching? It's been a consistent problem for them for last few years - that makes it a red flag IMO.

I don't think he can be pinned with NSH's weakness up front and I will offer a different set of stats:

If you look up the offensive output of their top offensive players, even those acquired in trade, their numbers are consistent. For example, Mike Fisher's offensive numbers didn't drop off after being traded from a more offensive team in Ottawa. Martin Erat's numbers actually declined after being traded away from Nashville to an offensive team in WSH. Their best current player, Hornqvist has had a steady climb (expected because of his age).

To me, that's a pretty good indication that the inability to score is not because of coaching.

Edit: just looked up both rosters and NJD and NSH are far from comparable when it comes to their forwards. NJD still has some solid offensive players in Zajac, Henrique, Ryder, Elias and even Jagr. NSH doesn't even come close.

[tas]

This here is a man that's passionate about coaching:

One thing people have to consider about hiring Trotz is the impact it will have on attracting free agents. He has a very solid reputation as a players coach, and someone you want to play for. Add that to an organization that wants to win and is willing to spend, and you have a very desirable package.

when did you change your tune?

and the last couple minutes of that press conference are exactly why he'd be perfect in vancouver. you coach the people, not the team.

[RunningWild]

I don't think he can be pinned with NSH's weakness up front and I will offer a different set of stats:

If you look up the offensive output of their top offensive players, even those acquired in trade, their numbers are consistent. For example, Mike Fisher's offensive numbers didn't drop off after being traded from a more offensive team in Ottawa. Martin Erat's numbers actually declined after being traded away from Nashville to an offensive team in WSH. Their best current player, Hornqvist has had a steady climb (expected because of his age).

To me, that's a pretty good indication that the inability to score is not because of coaching.

Edit: just looked up both rosters and NJD and NSH are far from comparable when it comes to their forwards. NJD still has some solid offensive players in Zajac, Henrique, Ryder, Elias and even Jagr. NSH doesn't even come close.

Ya, I wasn't trying to say Nashs problems were strictly up front. A poster was saying Nash was weak up front and Trotz did the best with what he had.

My analysis is based on more of a macro approach. Of course no 2 rosters are the same in the league. Both Nash and NJD are considered defense first teams - but one has had consistently better possession metrics. And again, my major concern is advanced stats and possesion metrics with Trotz.

[Smiley2051]

This here is a man that's passionate about coaching:

One thing people have to consider about hiring Trotz is the impact it will have on attracting free agents. He has a very solid reputation as a players coach, and someone you want to play for. Add that to an organization that wants to win and is willing to spend, and you have a very desirable package.

What a beauty...

Wouldn't be crazy to think if Trotz is hired he would bring back Peter Horachek?

[Undrafted]

Ya, I wasn't trying to say Nashs problems were strictly up front. A poster was saying Nash was weak up front and Trotz did the best with what he had.

My analysis is based on more of a macro approach. Of course no 2 rosters are the same in the league. Both Nash and NJD are considered defense first teams - but one has had consistently better possession metrics. And again, my major concern is advanced stats and possesion metrics with Trotz.

Looking at things with a wider or macro approach is good, but I also think that when it comes to analytics, there's a lot of context to take into account. NJD's higher possession metrics make sense, now that I've seen some of the players on there roster (I don't follow the Devils at all); NSH simply never had the players to play a possession game.

Another example of possession metrics not telling the whole story: the Canucks possession metrics were actually very good last season, believe it or not. Look how far that got them.

[DeNiro]

when did you change your tune?

and the last couple minutes of that press conference are exactly why he'd be perfect in vancouver. you coach the people, not the team.

My only question about Trotz was whether or not he could adapt his style to play the more up-tempo one that Linden wants.

I've never had anything but good to say about his character and his ability to coach.

It just comes down to the right fit, which after some consideration I definitely think it could work.

[RunningWild]

Looking at things with a wider or macro approach is good, but I also think that when it comes to analytics, there's a lot of context to take into account. NJD's higher possession metrics make sense, now that I've seen some of the players on there roster (I don't follow the Devils at all); NSH simply never had the players to play a possession game.

Another example of possession metrics not telling the whole story: the Canucks possession metrics were actually very good last season, believe it or not. Look how far that got them.

Ya I totally agree, there's more context to take into account re: Nashville. But from what I've seen, it's enough to raise a red flag from my perspective.

Ya, I knew Van was a decent possession team last yr. It happens, rarely, that a strong possession team doesn't make the playoffs. IMO had Torts followed advanced stats this team would have been in the playoffs. But I guess that's off topic.

[tas]

What a beauty...

Wouldn't be crazy to think if Trotz is hired he would bring back Peter Horachek?

its a shame his longtime assistant coach, best friend, and former canuck, brent peterson, had to retire prematurely a few years ago due to parkinson's.