Bo Horvat | #53 | C

[Crabcakes]

4 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

There is almost no chance a percentage over 20% is maintainable in the long term. Many of the best shooters in the league average about 15.0% (Ovechkin's career average is about 12-13%, but he shoots a ton), so that's probably a more realistic expectation for Horvat, or maybe 16% if we want to give him the benefit of a doubt and say he can match 2021-22 (Notably, Matthews averages 16.0% and McDavid's career average is 15.5%). He's currently scoring at a 60-goal pace. Corrected down to 16.0%, Bo would be scoring at a 41-goal pace. I think it's reasonable to expect that Horvat could score 35-40 goals for a few years here during his prime, but obviously, expecting 50+ for multiple years in a row is unrealistic.

You're right, there are players with career totals over 20% but only a handfull all time so it's really pie in the sky.  I think the really high numbers come when players are too picky and aren't shooting enough.

 

Conversely, Horvat's assist rate has always been less than his scoring rate and this year is lower than average which counter's the supposed improvement in control and vision he is supposed to have gained with the new stick.  This year, 24 goals, 11 assists.  Last year 31 goals, 21 assists.

 

Interestingly, Miller's big year last year came as a result of a big increase in shots made with a fairly consistent s% around 15.5%. 

 

Does Horvat really think that he can sustain this shot %?  Is this why he's insisting on the money that we think he's asking for?  I agree with you that he could approach 40 goals for a few years but this is likely his peak right now.  Miller's $8M is consistent with his career numbers which over the last number of years is a little over a point a game.  Horvat is a little over a point a game this season but over the last 3 season is closer to 0.75 ppg.  I'd really like to keep Horvat but unless his numbers normalize, I'm afraid we will loose him. 

[-AJ-]

51 minutes ago, Crabcakes said:

You're right, there are players with career totals over 20% but only a handfull all time so it's really pie in the sky.  I think the really high numbers come when players are too picky and aren't shooting enough.

 

Conversely, Horvat's assist rate has always been less than his scoring rate and this year is lower than average which counter's the supposed improvement in control and vision he is supposed to have gained with the new stick.  This year, 24 goals, 11 assists.  Last year 31 goals, 21 assists.

 

Interestingly, Miller's big year last year came as a result of a big increase in shots made with a fairly consistent s% around 15.5%. 

 

Does Horvat really think that he can sustain this shot %?  Is this why he's insisting on the money that we think he's asking for?  I agree with you that he could approach 40 goals for a few years but this is likely his peak right now.  Miller's $8M is consistent with his career numbers which over the last number of years is a little over a point a game.  Horvat is a little over a point a game this season but over the last 3 season is closer to 0.75 ppg.  I'd really like to keep Horvat but unless his numbers normalize, I'm afraid we will loose him. 

Yeah, it instinctively feels like this is a "lucky" year for Horvat. At this rate, barring injury, he probably finishes around 40-45 goals with 25-35 assists for 65-80 points and probably closer to the higher side of that point guess. Even still, I think it's fairly easy to tell that players who increase in goals due to shooting more represent a far more repeatable feat than those who's shooting percentage skyrockets above 20%. Even McDavid's shooting percentage is extremely high this year, so I don't expect him to continue scoring at a 70-goal rate for the remainder of this year and future years.

 

To your point, Miller didn't experience a big bump in shooting percentage, but just shot a lot more and his performance just instinctively felt far more repeatable and I think that's why.

 

To be clear, I do think Horvat could get 65 points for a few years, but going for 75+ doesn't seem likely outside of this year, unless we see him elevating his overall offensive game--more assists and more shots, similar to how Miller has done, especially last year.

[smithers joe]

i wish no one made more than 5 mil, base salary a year. then would set their full salary with bonuses to a set amount. say 8 mil.

this way they stayed hungry and when their skills declined, their salary would keep pace with their abilities.

i know it will never happen but it would be fair for both sides.

 

[Ted Lasso]

 The fact that he’s actively (and effectively) improving skills, makes an extension more appealing. 

[jyu]

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

 The fact that he’s actively (and effectively) improving skills, makes an extension more appealing. 

Agree. Ideally, we should re-sign him. 

 

As it stands, we have 70 mil tied up on 15 players next season. About 14 mil left. Assuming Horvat extension is at 8 mil, that leaves 6 mil to upgrade the defence.

 

And re-signing Horvat means we can't bring Kuzmenko back but that's fine as I'd say Bo is the more important player.

 

The management should find a way to trade Garland at the TDL if Boeser is difficult to trade at this point. They are paying for their mistake of re-signing JT Miller ahead of Bo Horvat.

 

[Ted Lasso]

5 minutes ago, jyu said:

Agree. Ideally, we should re-sign him. 

 

As it stands, we have 70 mil tied up on 15 players next season. About 14 mil left. Assuming Horvat extension is at 8 mil, that leaves 6 mil to upgrade the defence.

 

And re-signing Horvat means we can't bring Kuzmenko back but that's fine as I'd say Bo is the more important player.

 

The management should find a way to trade Garland at the TDL if Boeser is difficult to trade at this point. They are paying for their mistake of re-signing JT Miller ahead of Bo Horvat.

 

Agreed - we just need a team with cap space to make the first trade, or wait until small amounts of cap prorate to $4-5M near the deadline. We’ll be able to offload at least one winger before we take our last swing at Bo

[Locke Lamora]

Just chiming in to say that losing Horvat would be dumb.

 

Carry on.

[Wilbur]

Bo Horvat's 2 goal effort pushes him into 11th in all-time Canuck scoring tonight

 

10.  Alexander Edler	D	925	99	310	409
11.  Bo Horvat	C	608	198	210	408
12.  Don Lever	LW	593	186	221	407

[Wilbur]

Horvat now into the top 10 in all-time Canuck scoring list with his assist last night

 

9.  Todd Bertuzzi	RW	518	188	261	449
10.  Bo Horvat	C	609	198	211	409
11.  Alexander Edler	D	925	99	310	409

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Wilbur said:

Horvat now into the top 10 in all-time Canuck scoring list with his assist last night

 

9.  Todd Bertuzzi	RW	518	188	261	449
10.  Bo Horvat	C	609	198	211	409
11.  Alexander Edler	D	925	99	310	409

Is Bo still here to get past Bert? 

[Wilbur]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Is Bo still here to get past Bert? 

I would put my money on 'no'

[-AJ-]

3 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Horvat now into the top 10 in all-time Canuck scoring list with his assist last night

 

9.  Todd Bertuzzi	RW	518	188	261	449
10.  Bo Horvat	C	609	198	211	409
11.  Alexander Edler	D	925	99	310	409

Huge milestone. It's almost weird to think that Horvat has actually carved out song a long-term legacy as a Canuck, despite being only 27 years old.

[Westcoasting]

3 hours ago, Alflives said:

Is Bo still here to get past Bert? 

It’s sure not looking like it.

[Zerofaith]

5 hours ago, Wilbur said:

I would put my money on 'no'

Ill take that action. What do you wanna wager @Wilbur?

[Wilbur]

16 hours ago, Zerofaith said:

Ill take that action. What do you wanna wager @Wilbur?

Figurative money 

[Zerofaith]

14 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Figurative money 

[Alflives]

Gorgiev sure got mad at Makar (smashed his stick) for Makar chickening out on that third Canuck’s goal.  

[4petesake]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Gorgiev sure got mad at Makar (smashed his stick) for Makar chickening out on that third Canuck’s goal.  

…or there was this take from Avalanche Reddit. So different from CDC.

 

 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, 4petesake said:

…or there was this take from Avalanche Reddit. So different from CDC.

 

 

Yup.  Pretty obvious Makar chickened out and his goalie was pissed about it.  I thought the goalie was going to smack Makar.  

[-AJ-]

Just finished my halfway through the season Selke analysis and Horvat finished surprisingly well. His one big achilles heel defensively is that he has very poor penalty killing results. He plays tons of PK minutes, but obviously, as a big part of a bad PK in Vancouver, he doesn't show good results. That said, he has a high number of takeaways and is obviously incredible in the face-off dot. Even his historically bad +/- is looking pretty good at +4 despite playing on a fairly bad team.

 

We might be able to return to talking about Horvat as a pretty good defensive forward. We'll see how he continues.