2019 NHL Entry Draft in Vancouver, BC

[higgyfan]

25 minutes ago, MystifyNCrucify said:

More like foolhardy. This is a cant miss pick for the canucks, benning in particular. 

 

If podkolzin, a so called “top five talent” in this draft falls to ten, its because five other teams have the same reservations about his willingness to come, and stay in north america. 

 

Missing out on a top ten because you evaluated a players potential wrong is one thing. Missing out on a top ten because the player ran home or just didnt even come to North America is a completely different kind of “ouch “. 

 

 

On the other hand, he could end up being Ovechkin 2.0.  Can you imagine the years of whinning about taking Boldy over Ovechkin 2.0?  I don't think he drops to #10, but if he does, it will be a very difficult decision for JB.

[MystifyNCrucify]

1 minute ago, higgyfan said:

On the other hand, he could end up being Ovechkin 2.0.  Can you imagine the years of whinning about taking Boldy over Ovechkin 2.0?  I don't think he drops to #10, but if he does, it will be a very difficult decision for JB.

Said it once and ill say it again. I trust JB and JB to make the right choice and i will stand by it and be very excited for the player they pick. 

 

However the russian factor is very real, and if podkolzin is “the next ovechkin” then he wouldnt drop to number ten now would he?

[ilduce39]

4 minutes ago, MystifyNCrucify said:

Gonna have to call you on this. 

 

Guys not good enough? Dammit

 

Guy is good enough but doesn’t want to play on your continent, in your country, for your team?

 

Thats infinitely worse. 

To each their own, I guess.  I like the idea of our scouts knocking them out of the park.  I also feel Pod refusing to report is unlikely to happen and still leaves the club more outs, such as moving his rights, versus a kid just not developing in the first place. 

 

If JB thinks he’s getting a top 3 talent at #10 with a little added risk of Russian flightiness, I’m all for it.  That said, I doubt he drops to us. 

[Pears]

7 minutes ago, MystifyNCrucify said:

Said it once and ill say it again. I trust JB and JB to make the right choice and i will stand by it and be very excited for the player they pick. 

 

However the russian factor is very real, and if podkolzin is “the next ovechkin” then he wouldnt drop to number ten now would he?

If Podkolzin or his agent haven’t confirmed he wants to come over and play in North America, teams will be more inclined to take a Canadian/American/Swede over him. 

[MystifyNCrucify]

1 minute ago, ilduce39 said:

To each their own, I guess.  I like the idea of our scouts knocking them out of the park.  I also feel Pod refusing to report is unlikely to happen and still leaves the club more outs, such as moving his rights, versus a kid just not developing in the first place. 

 

If JB thinks he’s getting a top 3 talent at #10 with a little added risk of Russian flightiness, I’m all for it.  That said, I doubt he drops to us. 

Fair enough. I respect your opinion and thus respect you. 

 

Perhaps i do have somewhat of a bias, but im on the “fool me twice shame on me” boat. 

 

This is why i say i trust management to make the right choice. Two equally skilled prospects at number ten and one is russian, you had better be sure the russian is the right choice. 

[ilduce39]

Just now, MystifyNCrucify said:

Fair enough. I respect your opinion and thus respect you. 

 

Perhaps i do have somewhat of a bias, but im on the “fool me twice shame on me” boat. 

 

This is why i say i trust management to make the right choice. Two equally skilled prospects at number ten and one is russian, you had better be sure the russian is the right choice. 

It would suck, for sure... and I agree if the outlook is similar I’m taking the NA/Scandinavian kid.  

 

My thought is that if Pod is actually in that top 3 talent range, a head above the others and drops to us, I’m in a gambling mood.  We could use another home run if JB and his team are confident.  

 

Where I’m a lot more torn is on the defensive side of things.  I love the idea of drafting D at this stage but they still feel like a reach to me in this draft because I’m sure a highly regarded forward is going to be available at 10.

[JeremyCuddles]

38 minutes ago, MystifyNCrucify said:

Said it once and ill say it again. I trust JB and JB to make the right choice and i will stand by it and be very excited for the player they pick. 

 

However the russian factor is very real, and if podkolzin is “the next ovechkin” then he wouldnt drop to number ten now would he?

I don't recall Ovi's draft situation but I don't think he was committed to a KHL team for 2 years before his draft like Podkolzin is. And Ovi was clearly ultra talented on a generational level, a true generational level not the level people call every 1st overall pick nowadays. Podkolzin has elite potential but I don't think anyone is sticking him on Ovi level.

 

The Russian factor is less worrisome now since if I recall correctly the KHL isn't doing as well as it once was financially. Most players that return to Russia either weren't good enough for a major role in the NHL (IE Nichushkin likely goes back cause he sucks) or want to be closer to home (IE Tryamkin). Either way there's the risk of drafting a bust from any nationality. Podkolzin is committed to Russia for 2 years, and for all we know that's cause he feels it's best for his development. Only true way to find out the truth is to talk to him and people close to him, something hopefully Benning and company can/will do.

 

I don't think the Russian Factor is as big a deal as fans make it out to be. We'll never really get an idea of where his head is at cause I doubt he's talking to very many of us here. What I do have access to though is scouting reports from much more informed people than I, and those reports tell me passing on Podkolzin at 10 is not wise if your reasoning is "cause he is Russian". 

Edited May 5, 2019 by N7Nucks

[higgyfan]

3 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

It would suck, for sure... and I agree if the outlook is similar I’m taking the NA/Scandinavian kid.  

 

My thought is that if Pod is actually in that top 3 talent range, a head above the others and drops to us, I’m in a gambling mood.  We could use another home run if JB and his team are confident.  

 

Where I’m a lot more torn is on the defensive side of things.  I love the idea of drafting D at this stage but they still feel like a reach to me in this draft because I’m sure a highly regarded forward is going to be available at 10.

I'm not sure the risk is as high as what people are saying.  I can certainly understand the kid wanting to stay in his home country rather than play his Jr years in NA.  Lots of Euro kids do the same and nobody questions it.  The learning curve is much higher for these Russian kids as they come from a much different culture and rarely speak the language. 

 

The Canucks are very specific about the characteristics they look for in prospects, so I imagine their decision would be based on their interviews and observations before the draft.

[MystifyNCrucify]

11 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

It would suck, for sure... and I agree if the outlook is similar I’m taking the NA/Scandinavian kid.  

 

My thought is that if Pod is actually in that top 3 talent range, a head above the others and drops to us, I’m in a gambling mood.  We could use another home run if JB and his team are confident.  

 

Where I’m a lot more torn is on the defensive side of things.  I love the idea of drafting D at this stage but they still feel like a reach to me in this draft because I’m sure a highly regarded forward is going to be available at 10.

I know what you mean. From what im hearing, picks three through 15 “could” be interchangeable. 

 

In the end you never know. Trust in the JB’s. Real draft order isnt apparent until hindsight glasses kick in, and there are always factors that influence developing players. 

[ilduce39]

1 minute ago, higgyfan said:

I'm not sure the risk is as high as what people are saying.  I can certainly understand the kid wanting to stay in his home country rather than play his Jr years in NA.  Lots of Euro kids do the same and nobody questions it.  The learning curve is much higher for these Russian kids as they come from a much different culture and rarely speak the language. 

 

The Canucks are very specific about the characteristics they look for in prospects, so I imagine their decision would be based on their interviews and observations before the draft.

I agree with that as well.  

 

How many true top talent Russians don’t ever at least try the NHL?

 

I think the best players want to play in the best league... and if Podkozlin’s personality reflects his on ice play he’s the type who wants to compete at the highest level.  

 

Even that big softie Tryamkin is likely to come back when his K contract is up, I’m sure. 

 

That said, it does add some element of risk and is another factor to consider. 

[MystifyNCrucify]

5 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

I'm not sure the risk is as high as what people are saying.  I can certainly understand the kid wanting to stay in his home country rather than play his Jr years in NA.  Lots of Euro kids do the same and nobody questions it.  The learning curve is much higher for these Russian kids as they come from a much different culture and rarely speak the language. 

 

The Canucks are very specific about the characteristics they look for in prospects, so I imagine their decision would be based on their interviews and observations before the draft.

Im glad this conversation is actually constructive. Your opinion is yours, mine is mine. It should never be “im right you are wrong” because we are all making good valid points. Its nice to read. 

 

 

 

[TGokou]

1 hour ago, N7Nucks said:

Podkolzin has elite potential imo, his question mark is willingness to play in the NHL from the sounds of it and most of that is just him being committed to KHL until 2020/21. So him going at 10 doesn't mean his potential is that of most guys going around 10. Honestly, the only reason I think most fans here have Podkolzin going around 10 is cause of their innate hate for Russians and cause Tryamkin left. There is really no legit reason for anyone to say "hard no" to Podkolzin at 10, if they legit like a guy more cause of their on ice game fine but not taking him purely because he's Russian is short sighted and dumb. A good many of the mock drafts I see have him top 5. Personally, I have him top 5 but teams are starting to prioritize centers over BPA a bit more now.

I'm pretty sure I've already heard it being mentioned once or twice but I'll give my opinion on the matter as well. Drafting russians is not the deciding factor where you say automatic no to a player but there has to be some 'concern' over it regardless of whether it's publically stated or not. I know it's been mentioned that you can say other european players go back to europe so what's the difference? The difference is the level of commitment to reach the NHL imo. Whereas other european players have no qualms about trying  couple years in AHL before making the NHL most russians want to stay in KHL until they make it. This is primarily due to the money they make in the KHL as well as familiarity. In my mind this also decreases the potential trade value of a player as soon they are drafted. Similarly, 'most' russians who can't make it in the NHL right away have no desire to be in the AHL and so teams are 'forced' by hand to keep them in the NHL line up to the detriment of their development if they are not skilled enough. Lastly if they don't have the success they envisioned there is an immediate fall back option of going back to the KHL where they are wanted. I just want to preface by saying that this is not the case with all russians as there are the ones that genuinely make it with a bang right away. There are also players like Nikolay Goldobin who although haven't had a promising start are willing to put in the time to give it a fair shake and I can definitely respect that. Goldobin however came over to the OHL prior to his draft season and so we can infer his commitment to the North American game prior to him being drafted. Most russians who came over from the KHL who were in his position would've bolted by now.

 

With Podkolzin I see a slight lack of maturity in his interview where he inferred that he was not ready by his own admission to move out of his own comfort zone of leaving Russia and already that is a giant red flag. Committing to his KHL contract is not a big deal as most KHL players spend a couple years before coming over. However, will his maturity level get better and if he doesn't succeed in the NHL right away, will he be willing to put in the time to hone his game at the NA level?

[smithers joe]

11 minutes ago, MystifyNCrucify said:

I know what you mean. From what im hearing, picks three through 15 “could” be interchangeable. 

 

In the end you never know. Trust in the JB’s. Real draft order isnt apparent until hindsight glasses kick in, and there are always factors that influence developing players. 

right, they don’t pay us for our expertise....i don’t remember a draft that went exactly like i predicted. 

[MystifyNCrucify]

4 minutes ago, TGokou said:

I'm pretty sure I've already heard it being mentioned once or twice but I'll give my opinion on the matter as well. Drafting russians is not the deciding factor where you say automatic no to a player but there has to be some 'concern' over it regardless of whether it's publically stated or not. I know it's been mentioned that you can say other european players go back to europe so what's the difference? The difference is the level of commitment to reach the NHL imo. Whereas other european players have no qualms about trying  couple years in AHL before making the NHL most russians want to stay in KHL until they make it. This is primarily due to the money they make in the KHL as well as familiarity. In my mind this also decreases the potential trade value of a player as soon they are drafted. Similarly, 'most' russians who can't make it in the NHL right away have no desire to be in the AHL and so teams are 'forced' by hand to keep them in the NHL line up to the detriment of their development if they are not skilled enough. Lastly if they don't have the success they envisioned there is an immediate fall back option of going back to the KHL where they are wanted. I just want to preface by saying that this is not the case with all russians as there are the ones that genuinely make it with a bang right away. There are also players like Nikolay Goldobin who although haven't had a promising start are willing to put in the time to give it a fair shake and I can definitely respect that. Goldobin however came over to the OHL prior to his draft season and so we can infer his commitment to the North American game prior to him being drafted. Most russians who came over from the KHL who were in his position would've bolted by now.

 

With Podkolzin I see a slight lack of maturity in his interview where he inferred that he was not ready by his own admission to move out of his own comfort zone of leaving Russia and already that is a giant red flag. Committing to his KHL contract is not a big deal as most KHL players spend a couple years before coming over. However, will his maturity level get better and if he doesn't succeed in the NHL right away, will he be willing to put in the time to hone his game at the NA level?

This exactly. Most players dont hit their peak till 25-28. 

 

If you misjudge a first round picks upside, you would ideally like to get some kinda player out of them. If that pick just gives up, you have nothing and it was a wasted pick. 

[MoneypuckOverlord]

7 minutes ago, TGokou said:

I'm pretty sure I've already heard it being mentioned once or twice but I'll give my opinion on the matter as well. Drafting russians is not the deciding factor where you say automatic no to a player but there has to be some 'concern' over it regardless of whether it's publically stated or not. I know it's been mentioned that you can say other european players go back to europe so what's the difference? The difference is the level of commitment to reach the NHL imo. Whereas other european players have no qualms about trying  couple years in AHL before making the NHL most russians want to stay in KHL until they make it. This is primarily due to the money they make in the KHL as well as familiarity. In my mind this also decreases the potential trade value of a player as soon they are drafted. Similarly, 'most' russians who can't make it in the NHL right away have no desire to be in the AHL and so teams are 'forced' by hand to keep them in the NHL line up to the detriment of their development if they are not skilled enough. Lastly if they don't have the success they envisioned there is an immediate fall back option of going back to the KHL where they are wanted. I just want to preface by saying that this is not the case with all russians as there are the ones that genuinely make it with a bang right away. There are also players like Nikolay Goldobin who although haven't had a promising start are willing to put in the time to give it a fair shake and I can definitely respect that. Goldobin however came over to the OHL prior to his draft season and so we can infer his commitment to the North American game prior to him being drafted. Most russians who came over from the KHL who were in his position would've bolted by now.

 

With Podkolzin I see a slight lack of maturity in his interview where he inferred that he was not ready by his own admission to move out of his own comfort zone of leaving Russia and already that is a giant red flag. Committing to his KHL contract is not a big deal as most KHL players spend a couple years before coming over. However, will his maturity level get better and if he doesn't succeed in the NHL right away, will he be willing to put in the time to hone his game at the NA level?

Exactly.  Keep in mind the khl is the only other professional League that can offer player 7 digits.  Example is an elite prospect named Koltsov, he was stuck making 5 digits with the manatoba moose and will only get payed 800 k IF and when he makes the nhl.  He was then offered 1.8 million to play in Russia. So make 1.8 million tax free Russian or stuck making 5 digits in the ahl.  Not to sound racist or mean, a lot of gms like to see players willing to work hard and even if it means going through the ahl, to do it.  A lot of these Russian players have agents who will use the khl as bargaining chips, let me add to the fact, the Russians we draft don’t even show up for training camp l! We don’t even get to have a look, it’s like they know they have no intentions if ever coming over but want to get drafted just for the sake of it.

 

so I will pass with using a 10th pick on him.

[MystifyNCrucify]

5 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

right, they don’t pay us for our expertise....i don’t remember a draft that went exactly like i predicted. 

I hear the oilers are having problems finding someone that can put out dumpster fires. 

 

Who knows? Maybe if we went on indeed.ca they would take our resumes Joe. 

[JeremyCuddles]

1 minute ago, TGokou said:

I'm pretty sure I've already heard it being mentioned once or twice but I'll give my opinion on the matter as well. Drafting russians is not the deciding factor where you say automatic no to a player but there has to be some 'concern' over it regardless of whether it's publically stated or not. I know it's been mentioned that you can say other european players go back to europe so what's the difference? The difference is the level of commitment to reach the NHL imo. Whereas other european players have no qualms about trying  couple years in AHL before making the NHL most russians want to stay in KHL until they make it. This is primarily due to the money they make in the KHL as well as familiarity. In my mind this also decreases the potential trade value of a player as soon they are drafted. Similarly, 'most' russians who can't make it in the NHL right away have no desire to be in the AHL and so teams are 'forced' by hand to keep them in the NHL line up to the detriment of their development if they are not skilled enough. Lastly if they don't have the success they envisioned there is an immediate fall back option of going back to the KHL where they are wanted. I just want to preface by saying that this is not the case with all russians as there are the ones that genuinely make it with a bang right away. There are also players like Nikolay Goldobin who although haven't had a promising start are willing to put in the time to give it a fair shake and I can definitely respect that. Goldobin however came over to the OHL prior to his draft season and so we can infer his commitment to the North American game prior to him being drafted. Most russians who came over from the KHL who were in his position would've bolted by now.

 

With Podkolzin I see a slight lack of maturity in his interview where he inferred that he was not ready by his own admission to move out of his own comfort zone of leaving Russia and already that is a giant red flag. Committing to his KHL contract is not a big deal as most KHL players spend a couple years before coming over. However, will his maturity level get better and if he doesn't succeed in the NHL right away, will he be willing to put in the time to hone his game at the NA level?

That's fair. Russians are less likely to do any time in the AHL. But I dunno if that's enough for me to say no to drafting them. Like I said that's just drafting a player that isn't good enough and can happen with anyone you draft. It just so happens Russians leave without staying a bit longer in NA compared to European players and I guess it offends us more than a guy sucking, but he stayed around sucking longer. Lol. Also have to wonder what the money difference between KHL and SHL/Liiga is, if European players can make KHL dollars in the SHL or Liiga I'd bet they'd opt to stay there for their development too and refuse AHL time, but that's just speculation on my part. I feel like the top end talent in the KHL is better than the top end talent of SHL, AHL etc. Again speculation.

 

As for the bolded part I don't see this as a lack of maturity, if anything it speaks to him being mature. He knows his limits. He's 17, it's a massive change to move from one town to another, let alone leaving your country for another country. So for him to admit to not being ready is a sign of maturity in my books. Nobody is perfect and people will be ready at different times. 

[MystifyNCrucify]

4 minutes ago, N7Nucks said:

That's fair. Russians are less likely to do any time in the AHL. But I dunno if that's enough for me to say no to drafting them. Like I said that's just drafting a player that isn't good enough and can happen with anyone you draft. It just so happens Russians leave without staying a bit longer in NA compared to European players and I guess it offends us more than a guy sucking, but he stayed around sucking longer. Lol. Also have to wonder what the money difference between KHL and SHL/Liiga is, if European players can make KHL dollars in the SHL or Liiga I'd bet they'd opt to stay there for their development too and refuse AHL time, but that's just speculation on my part. I feel like the top end talent in the KHL is better than the top end talent of SHL, AHL etc. Again speculation.

 

As for the bolded part I don't see this as a lack of maturity, if anything it speaks to him being mature. He knows his limits. He's 17, it's a massive change to move from one town to another, let alone leaving your country for another country. So for him to admit to not being ready is a sign of maturity in my books. Nobody is perfect and people will be ready at different times. 

Thats the thing though. If that player is good, but not good enough for the nhl do you gift them a spot on the roster, to the detriment of the team and perhaps the player themselves? And if the player leaves for the khl anyway? 

 

Then not only did you waste your first round pick, you wasted development time, and perhaps your team wasnt as good as it could have been. 

[smithers joe]

teams have to weigh each players potential, against the question marks and make professional decisions. if they make a wrong decision, their fans will crucify them. 

when they took luke bourdon, some fans were saying, they should have known that luke would die in a motor cycle accident and should have taken kopitar. 

[higgyfan]

22 minutes ago, TGokou said:

I'm pretty sure I've already heard it being mentioned once or twice but I'll give my opinion on the matter as well. Drafting russians is not the deciding factor where you say automatic no to a player but there has to be some 'concern' over it regardless of whether it's publically stated or not. I know it's been mentioned that you can say other european players go back to europe so what's the difference? The difference is the level of commitment to reach the NHL imo. Whereas other european players have no qualms about trying  couple years in AHL before making the NHL most russians want to stay in KHL until they make it. This is primarily due to the money they make in the KHL as well as familiarity. In my mind this also decreases the potential trade value of a player as soon they are drafted. Similarly, 'most' russians who can't make it in the NHL right away have no desire to be in the AHL and so teams are 'forced' by hand to keep them in the NHL line up to the detriment of their development if they are not skilled enough. Lastly if they don't have the success they envisioned there is an immediate fall back option of going back to the KHL where they are wanted. I just want to preface by saying that this is not the case with all russians as there are the ones that genuinely make it with a bang right away. There are also players like Nikolay Goldobin who although haven't had a promising start are willing to put in the time to give it a fair shake and I can definitely respect that. Goldobin however came over to the OHL prior to his draft season and so we can infer his commitment to the North American game prior to him being drafted. Most russians who came over from the KHL who were in his position would've bolted by now.

 

With Podkolzin I see a slight lack of maturity in his interview where he inferred that he was not ready by his own admission to move out of his own comfort zone of leaving Russia and already that is a giant red flag. Committing to his KHL contract is not a big deal as most KHL players spend a couple years before coming over. However, will his maturity level get better and if he doesn't succeed in the NHL right away, will he be willing to put in the time to hone his game at the NA level?

I'm not sure whether it is as much his maturity level, lack of confidence or perhaps a more introverted personality style.  Goldy has a flamboyant personality; at just 17yrs, he jumped at the chance to come over to NA.

 

Much about what you say regarding Podk's coming to NA as a pro and his reaction to landing up in the AHL is speculation and there is no way of knowing how he would react to that.  It's hard to believe that a highly regarded #3 pick would not be successful in the NHL, but that would be speculation on my part.  He does come across as a very competitive player, which suggests that he would only be satisfied by playing in the best league in the world.

 

I suspect every GM will investigate this situation to the nth degree before draft day.