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[Discussion] Will the Next one be the Worst Recession in History?


Warhippy

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13 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

No I'm being serious. And if you are being serious I like your idea LOL but no apparently he coming contact with somebody that was self quarantine

100% serious if he's got it.  Make sure he shakes hands with the Crown Prince as often as possible.

Edited by King Heffy
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34 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

No I'm being serious. And if you are being serious I like your idea LOL but no apparently he coming contact with somebody that was self quarantine

It was at CPAC in New Jersey last week. An attendee has tested positive for COVID19.

 

As a result, Ted Cruz, Matt Gaetz, Gosar and one other have self quarantined themselves. Louie Gomert also had contact with the carrier but has refused to quarantine himself because I guess it's all a media hoax??

 

They all had contact with Trump. Gaetz even flew on Air Force One with Trump. Found out mid flight he had contact and apparently sat by himself away from the others. Because on a pressurized airplane that totally works.

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56 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Pumping money into a failing system is not a solution. At some point it will lose credibility and  confidence or what is left will be gone.

Yup, but until then they are going to keep all the balls in the air as long as humanly possible.

 

Like Tiger Woods keeping 13 chicks a secret from his wife. He knew it was a bad idea and that he was playing with fire. But he did it anyway until his house of cards came tumbling down. That's kind of human nature.

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Wanted to post this video as one of my favorite guys on CNBC Guy Adami (apart from Josh Brown) totally nails it. If you have any interest in markets and what's been going on the last ten years take a look.

 

The last ten years the biggest free lunch on Wall Street has been shorting volatility anytime it rears it's head and plowing the proceeds into blue chips. It's such a lazy strategy. Volatility is a normal part of markets. Neutering it is very dangerous.

 

This house of cards is all on the Fed, ECB, BOJ, etc. One day it will all crumble but they will do whatever they can do kick that can as far down the road as possible. What is their response to this market freak out? Lower rates and provide economic stimulus. Heroin addicts don't get better by giving them more heroin. yet that's the Central Bankers response to everything.

Edited by nuckin_futz
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26 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

 

Wanted to post this video as one of my favorite guys on CNBC Guy Adami (apart from Josh Brown) totally nails it. If you have any interest in markets and what's been going on the last ten years take a look.

 

The last ten years the biggest free lunch on Wall Street has been shorting volatility anytime it rears it's head and plowing the proceeds into blue chips. It's such a lazy strategy. Volatility is a normal part of markets. Neutering it is very dangerous.

 

This house of cards is all on the Fed, ECB, BOJ, etc. One day it will all crumble but they will do whatever they can do kick that can as far down the road as possible. What is their response to this market freak out? Lower rates and provide economic stimulus. Heroin addicts don't get better by giving them more heroin. yet that's the Central Bankers response to everything.

Thanks for that. Well worth the listen.

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Just now, Boudrias said:

Might have really screwed up. It appears I didn’t take the virus seriously enough. I thought the supply chain disruptions would be manageable. Not looking good. 

China is shut down.  India is starting to be affected.  Most SE Asian nations are experiencing issues.

 

That effectively takes that area of the world offline.  That's our factories and major global production.  As well as some of the largest ports and distribution points.

 

Not to mention China's economy now slamming to a halt.

 

Oh it's bad

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1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

China is shut down.  India is starting to be affected.  Most SE Asian nations are experiencing issues.

 

That effectively takes that area of the world offline.  That's our factories and major global production.  As well as some of the largest ports and distribution points.

 

Not to mention China's economy now slamming to a halt.

 

Oh it's bad

Maybe we pull a end of times Roman style. Eat, drink and be merry as Rome burns. Easy to do in Maui.

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38 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Maybe we pull a end of times Roman style. Eat, drink and be merry as Rome burns. Easy to do in Maui.

Rome is actually interesting.  They had a commerce system similar to ours we see today.  Every now and again they'd just wipe the slate clean, they'd have no choice.  Of course it got progressively worse and worse until only the 1% held everything, then the Gauls came and....

 

Hmmmm

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Stock market investors took another bath in red ink on Wednesday, with the TSX, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down by between three and five per cent.

Just about everything was once again lower, as the coronavirus currently sweeping around the globe infects stock markets with something almost as worrisome: fear.

 

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a modest stimulus package designed to offset the impact of the virus, but by Wednesday it was clear that investors thought measures such as a payroll tax reduction are nowhere near enough to offset the economic damage that the virus could do to the world's largest economy.

"Every day that passes makes the economic impact of coronavirus that much worse," said Kristina Hooper, Invesco's chief global market strategist. "The government probably should have been thinking about stimulus last month."

The S&P/TSX Composite Index was down by 577 points, or almost four per cent, in the afternoon, while the Dow fared even worse — off 1,389 points, or more than five per cent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down by roughly five per cent each.

Twenty-nine of the 30 companies on the Dow Jones were lower, led by plane maker Boeing, which lost 15 per cent of its value after the company said it would draw down a $13 billion credit facility as soon as Friday.

The lone exception was United Health, which eked out a gain of 0.6 per cent.

All 11 different sub-indexes on the TSX were lower, but hard-hit oil company names were battered once more. Companies like Suncor, Cenovus and Husky Energy, which have already lost more than a third of their value since the sell-off began, lost another seven, three and five per cent of their values.

The sell-off brings the total losses since the sell-off began in late February to 20 per cent in Toronto and New York. That's the technical definition of a bear market.

Larry Berman, chief investment officer at ETF Capital Management, says the market is simply responding to the realization that the world's largest economy is woefully under-prepared for a pandemic. On Wednesday, the WHO said the COVID-19 outbreak is a pandemic.

"This is spreading in communities and there's no infrastructure," he said. "You've got doctors posting on Twitter that they're sick themselves and they can't themselves get a test. I mean it's insane how far behind the curve they are."

Oil lost another dollar to trade at just over $33 US per barrel. The price of West Texas Intermediate has lost about 20 per cent of its value since Saudi Arabia and Russia kicked off a race-to-the-bottom price war last weekend.

The blend of crude from Canada's oilsands lost 87 cents to change hands at $20.63 a barrel.

"Investors are just kind of sitting back and letting the market carnage play out," Keith Bliss, managing partner and CEO at iQ Capital, told Reuters. "They will step back in when things seemed to have settled down."

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16 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

This sell off is still pretty orderly. S&P futures volume today will be about 2.7M. We did double that about ten days ago.

 

Saw some panic selling in various currencies on Sunday evening. Haven't really seen any panic selling in stocks yet.

Do you think it's coming?

 

I see the US government moving in with some of that free market socialism they claim doesn't happen already.  But with the promise of potentially making that payroll tax scaring economists via the erosion of the social safety net that exists for pensioners in America how much harm will it actually do as opposed to good

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8 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Do you think it's coming?

 

I see the US government moving in with some of that free market socialism they claim doesn't happen already.  But with the promise of potentially making that payroll tax scaring economists via the erosion of the social safety net that exists for pensioners in America how much harm will it actually do as opposed to good

I'd sure like to see it. I mean panic selling.

 

Yeah for certain they are going to bail out everyone and everything. They all are, every major central bank. It's all they know. They don't care about long term harm. They care about right now and getting re-elected.

 

Right now I'd say the December 2018 lows look like a decent target. That's S&P 2325, that's about 400 S&P points below here. But really who the Hell knows.

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I mentioned above there was some panic selling in a few things on Sunday evening. Someone or some fund puked out a big position.

 

Below is a chart of the New Zealand dollar. Now this really shouldn't be something that blows out but there you have it. It puked about 5% in minutes. That's the kind of selling I believe you'd need to see in US stocks to feel we've finally taken care of some of the selling.

 

Still have not seen any stories about hedge funds blowing up like we did all the time in 2008. Everything seems quite orderly. It's weird.

nzd.jpg

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2 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

I mentioned above there was some panic selling in a few things on Sunday evening. Someone or some fund puked out a big position.

 

Below is a chart of the New Zealand dollar. Now this really shouldn't be something that blows out but there you have it. It puked about 5% in minutes. That's the kind of selling I believe you'd need to see in US stocks to feel we've finally taken care of some of the selling.

 

Still have not seen any stories about hedge funds blowing up like we did all the time in 2008. Everything seems quite orderly. It's weird.

nzd.jpg

This will come to a head over the next 2 weeks.  Spring Break starts, that's HUGE money for various industry.  With the COVID 19 issue that money will not materialize and a lot of people will start panicking

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