(Proposal) Three trades in the off season

[BigTramFan]

Trade 1 -

To DET: Virtanen + Benn

To VAN: Detroit's 2020 2nd round pick, Washington's 2020 2nd round pick

 

This trade assumes we resign Toffoli and Fantenberg, who are both better players than Virt & Benn. Our top 2 RWs are Boeser & Toffoli. MacEwen can be a more cost effective option at 3RW. Virtanen is the odd man out in an extremely cap strapped situation. We throw in Benn to clear some cap space. Detroit are assembling a good young group of players and could use a strong young player such as Virtanen and the change of scenery may be good for him. Detroit could use some veteran defensemen at a good price tag. Detroit's 2nd round pick will be like a 1st rounder for JB, so this plus the Washington 2nd effectively replaces our 1st and 2nd round picks for 2020.

 

Trade 2 -

To DAL: Pearson

To VAN: 2021 2nd round pick

 

Pearson is not in the long term plans of the Canucks. He has had a fantastic season. Buy low, sell high. Dallas desperately need more offense at an affordable price. They are in win now mode. Pearson would have been the highest scorer on their roster this season. He is worth only a second round pick because he only has one year left on his contract. Good deal for both teams.

 

Trade 3 -

To BUF: Roussel + 2021 4th round pick

To VAN: Mattias Samuelsson

 

Samuelsson is a LD (20 years, 6'4", 218 lb) drafted in second round in 2018. VAN need to shed some cap this year and Roussel is a tradeable asset (it will be much more difficult to shed Eriksson, Sutter or Baer). BUF will want Rous because he will show their guys how to be a professional and play with 100% effort consistently. VAN gets a big strong defensively orientated young Dman.

 

The 2020/21 roster becomes:

 

Miller Pettersson Toffoli ($5.25m)

Ferland Horvat Boeser

Baertschi Gaudette MacEwen ($1.25m)

Motte ($1m) Beagle Sutter

(Lind, $0.9)

 

Hughes Tanev ($5m)

Edler Myers

Fantenberg ($1.25m) Rafferty

(Rathbone, $0.9)

 

Markstrom ($5.75m)

(Demko)

 

Footnotes:

Eriksson waived to Utica (make it clear he will be staying there next year too, might help him terminate that last year)

Stecher walks

 

The above roster including all recapture and buried contracts comes to $78.8m

Adding performance overages of $1.7m from 2020 still leaves about $3m in cap space to cover performance bonuses in 2021

[DrJockitch]

Usually I don’t even read proposal posts, they usually are very delusional.

I don’t think you have wildly overvalued our players.  I don’t need to see anymore Virt for Pesce silliness. 
I know we would like to recoup some pics but I don’t think you trade Virt without including some form of cap dump or bring back a D prospect. 
I think Buffalo could probably use Pearson more than Rous.
Dallas in an interesting team as far as moving some pieces around. 
Will be an interesting playoff (or whatever it is) and should hopefully crystallize the value of some of our fringe guys. 
Wouldn’t it be amazing if one of Bennington overpaid veteran crew actually generated some value for themselves whether it is the ghost of Sutter, Spicoli, or-damn the list does go on.  

[IBatch]

Well finally someone  actually figured out exactly what the cost of signing TT long term could look like.

 

 

Madden plus a second plus JV, plus Benn, plus Pearson plus Roussel >>> then TT plus two seconds.    
 

Of course not all of this money is needed just for TT,  but if we don’t sign him we only have to trade Roussel and Benn  (if we can) or worse case Pearson to sign the rest of the guys.

 

Yes TT has currently an upgrade over JV.   But not on a cost per dollar view.  Last year JV was three times valuable as McDavid based on price ...sure he’s getting a raise so this year he might be “only” 150-200% more valuable.   JV at 2.5 is better then TT at 5...or 4 for that matter.   Bet if he got 82 games in the top six he’d score 45-50 points ... something TT has done three times in his career.   So no thanks.  Go with the younger player and just bang tough for a year or two.

 

TT to me is a luxury we can’t afford and we are better off cutting bait then throwing bad money at him.   
 

Well done on not overvaluing our players - I think Pearson could get us a little more - a 2 plus B level prospect.   But I’m not sure Roussel won’t cost US.  Two more years .... not sure there will be any takers unless we take cap back.  Could be wrong.   Benn might be hard to move too.  150% more L side then R side Ds in the NHL...won’t be hard for teams looking to add depth one bit on that side - he could also cost US to move.  Like Benn plus a 3rd for a 5th back or something.  
 

To me the cost is going to be even higher then the OP suggests it will.   It will start with Pearson, then Roussel (and now our L side is decimated) Benn, and likely Stecher... plus the costs to dump Roussel and Benn (our picks and prospects) for the cap space.  
 

OR

 

We could trade Pearson.   Sign Tanev to a flat one year deal.   Use Pearson to give Markstrom and JVs raises - that’s enough IMO.  Let Stetcher walk and find a Fatenburg type or just go with Rafferty - he’s 6’2” so size goes up on the R side...  and Stecher money goes to AG and some of the bonus overages.   This way we aren’t tying up much money - and won’t be in the exact same pickle next off season when the wonder kids have to be signed.   Might even have some extra to then look to sign a TT type.    If not absolutely the following year - but that 9 plus a little left over from the previous year - say 12 could then be put into great use in our biggest weakness - defense - and pay for a long time Edler replacement (assuming OJ won’t be that) and another top 4 RHD.   That’s what I’d do.   Don’t care if we lose a first overall  pick next year ... folks we still couldn’t win with TT in the lineup with Markstrom our.    Is adding 10-15 points (the difference between him and JV in the same spot) really worth the effort?    We don’t have to strip the depth to the core ... we just have to be patient and accept it for what it is.  Nobody including JB thought we’d get out of the rebuild post Sedin this fast.   Sure beats the alternative which would be we just simply still suck.

 

Edit: Think of it this way.   How did MG acquiring Hamhuis and Erhoff change that team?  It put us over the top.   And he also wasted in today’s money around 12 million in Booth and  Ballard.    That’s the sort of impact we could expect in two years time (one if LE retires after this season) .. right when the team is starting to peak core wise.   Hope JB isn’t thinking about his longevity for what could happen if we have a big decline next season.   But signing TT could seriously, likely even, back-fire.   I’d rather add two more Myers types one on each side then implode the depth and pay some futures like Lind and some picks for cap dumps ... wouldn’t you?   Myers might not have lit the lamp but took a massive load off Tanev and Edler.   

Edited July 26, 2020 by IBatch

[smithers joe]

imo, moving or trying to move louie, baerschi, and sutter and benn and signing the bigger fish to back loaded shorter contracts could work. 

what is the shelf life of markstrom, toffoli, tanev, sutter, ferland and leivo?

[NewbieCanuckFan]

Those players have to want to sign those short term deals though.  A younger player with lots of years left might want that actually (to wait out the pandemic).  A guy like a Marky might not.  

[NewbieCanuckFan]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Well finally someone  actually figured out exactly what the cost of signing TT long term could look like.

 

 

Madden plus a second plus JV, plus Benn, plus Pearson plus Roussel >>> then TT plus two seconds.    
 

Of course not all of this money is needed just for TT,  but if we don’t sign him we only have to trade Roussel and Benn  (if we can) or worse case Pearson to sign the rest of the guys.

 

Yes TT has currently an upgrade over JV.   But not on a cost per dollar view.  Last year JV was three times valuable as McDavid based on price ...sure he’s getting a raise so this year he might be “only” 150-200% more valuable.   JV at 2.5 is better then TT at 5...or 4 for that matter.   Bet if he got 82 games in the top six he’d score 45-50 points ... something TT has done three times in his career.   So no thanks.  Go with the younger player and just bang tough for a year or two.

 

TT to me is a luxury we can’t afford and we are better off cutting bait then throwing bad money at him.   
 

Well done on not overvaluing our players - I think Pearson could get us a little more - a 2 plus B level prospect.   But I’m not sure Roussel won’t cost US.  Two more years .... not sure there will be any takers unless we take cap back.  Could be wrong.   Benn might be hard to move too.  150% more L side then R side Ds in the NHL...won’t be hard for teams looking to add depth one bit on that side - he could also cost US to move.  Like Benn plus a 3rd for a 5th back or something.  
 

To me the cost is going to be even higher then the OP suggests it will.   It will start with Pearson, then Roussel (and now our L side is decimated) Benn, and likely Stecher... plus the costs to dump Roussel and Benn (our picks and prospects) for the cap space.  
 

OR

 

We could trade Pearson.   Sign Tanev to a flat one year deal.   Use Pearson to give Markstrom and JVs raises - that’s enough IMO.  Let Stetcher walk and find a Fatenburg type or just go with Rafferty - he’s 6’2” so size goes up on the R side...  and Stecher money goes to AG and some of the bonus overages.   This way we aren’t tying up much money - and won’t be in the exact same pickle next off season when the wonder kids have to be signed.   Might even have some extra to then look to sign a TT type.    If not absolutely the following year - but that 9 plus a little left over from the previous year - say 12 could then be put into great use in our biggest weakness - defense - and pay for a long time Edler replacement (assuming OJ won’t be that) and another top 4 RHD.   That’s what I’d do.   Don’t care if we lose a first overall  pick next year ... folks we still couldn’t win with TT in the lineup with Markstrom our.    Is adding 10-15 points (the difference between him and JV in the same spot) really worth the effort?    We don’t have to strip the depth to the core ... we just have to be patient and accept it for what it is.  Nobody including JB thought we’d get out of the rebuild post Sedin this fast.   Sure beats the alternative which would be we just simply still suck.

 

Edit: Think of it this way.   How did MG acquiring Hamhuis and Erhoff change that team?  It put us over the top.   And he also wasted in today’s money around 12 million in Booth and  Ballard.    That’s the sort of impact we could expect in two years time (one if LE retires after this season) .. right when the team is starting to peak core wise.   Hope JB isn’t thinking about his longevity for what could happen if we have a big decline next season.   But signing TT could seriously, likely even, back-fire.   I’d rather add two more Myers types one on each side then implode the depth and pay some futures like Lind and some picks for cap dumps ... wouldn’t you?   Myers might not have lit the lamp but took a massive load off Tanev and Edler.   

Booth was only wasted after that Avs player took out his knee with a cheapshot knee-on-knee hit.  He was putting up 2nd liner numbers prior to that.  LE just got really old.......really fast (like after the ink dried on the contract he signed with us).  No question though that Ballard was a HUGE error in judgement by Gillis.

Edited July 26, 2020 by NewbieCanuckFan

[IBatch]

51 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Booth was only wasted after that Avs player took out his knee with a cheapshot knee-on-knee hit.  He was putting up 2nd liner numbers prior to that.  LE just got really old.......really fast (like after the ink dried on the contract he signed with us).  No question though that Ballard was a HUGE error in judgement by Gillis.

Don’t blame him for trying, at the time I was amazed he kept adding to our already very good lineup.   Elite goalie at the top of his game - his second place Vezina was better then 3/4 of the ones I’ve seen win it.  Check.   Two stars emerging as two of the best at their positions in the game (LW and C). Check.  Well rounded top two pairings with skill and grit throughout the D core. Check.   One of the best two-way C’s in the game.  Check.   About as good as a team could possibly be under the cap .. and even a lot better then some star filled cap teams (2000’s NYR teams come to mind).  We rarely got beat by more then a goal ... and won many games coming back from behind.  Clutch scoring.   Great third line.   Experts still talk about the Canucks as the best team not to win a cup in the modern era - and suppose they will keep doing that for some time unless TB finally gets their sh!t together.   Really that’s the closest thing to what we had - sure we didn’t have a Norris guy like Hedman - but we did have so much talent that Ballard - a 40-45 point guy couldn’t even crack the lineup.   Wish we could have those sort of first world NHL problems again soon.   Instead we are debating the best way we could somehow fit a guy not much unlike Booth into our top six.   Would much rather sit it out for two years and take our medicine so then we could be talking about how to fit a Norris caliber guy into our lineup - because we’d have the funds for it if we didn’t blow our wad before we even have it back ...or two guys like Hamhuis and Erhoff.   6 is after all - the new 4-4.5 right?  JB did it once already by adding Myers - talk all you want but he was the best RHD available last draft ... and we got him for 1 million less then most pundits thought he’d go for. 

Edited July 26, 2020 by IBatch

[wildcam]

4 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

Trade 1 -

To DET: Virtanen + Benn

To VAN: Detroit's 2020 2nd round pick, Washington's 2020 2nd round pick

 

This trade assumes we resign Toffoli and Fantenberg, who are both better players than Virt & Benn. Our top 2 RWs are Boeser & Toffoli. MacEwen can be a more cost effective option at 3RW. Virtanen is the odd man out in an extremely cap strapped situation. We throw in Benn to clear some cap space. Detroit are assembling a good young group of players and could use a strong young player such as Virtanen and the change of scenery may be good for him. Detroit could use some veteran defensemen at a good price tag. Detroit's 2nd round pick will be like a 1st rounder for JB, so this plus the Washington 2nd effectively replaces our 1st and 2nd round picks for 2020.

 

Trade 2 -

To DAL: Pearson

To VAN: 2021 2nd round pick

 

Pearson is not in the long term plans of the Canucks. He has had a fantastic season. Buy low, sell high. Dallas desperately need more offense at an affordable price. They are in win now mode. Pearson would have been the highest scorer on their roster this season. He is worth only a second round pick because he only has one year left on his contract. Good deal for both teams.

 

Trade 3 -

To BUF: Roussel + 2021 4th round pick

To VAN: Mattias Samuelsson

 

Samuelsson is a LD (20 years, 6'4", 218 lb) drafted in second round in 2018. VAN need to shed some cap this year and Roussel is a tradeable asset (it will be much more difficult to shed Eriksson, Sutter or Baer). BUF will want Rous because he will show their guys how to be a professional and play with 100% effort consistently. VAN gets a big strong defensively orientated young Dman.

 

The 2020/21 roster becomes:

 

Miller Pettersson Toffoli ($5.25m)

Ferland Horvat Boeser

Baertschi Gaudette MacEwen ($1.25m)

Motte ($1m) Beagle Sutter

(Lind, $0.9)

 

Hughes Tanev ($5m)

Edler Myers

Fantenberg ($1.25m) Rafferty

(Rathbone, $0.9)

 

Markstrom ($5.75m)

(Demko)

 

Footnotes:

Eriksson waived to Utica (make it clear he will be staying there next year too, might help him terminate that last year)

Stecher walks

 

The above roster including all recapture and buried contracts comes to $78.8m

Adding performance overages of $1.7m from 2020 still leaves about $3m in cap space to cover performance bonuses in 2021

I like your trade ides but don't think we can trade both Virtanen and Pearson... 

 

I like would move big Jake as I don't thing he will reach his potential in Vancouver..

We need to get a good return for Jake as he will be a top 6 forward...

 

Vertanen 24, 6'1, 220 --- Severson 6'2 , 26 -- solid #3 D man -- Good trade for both teams..

We need a top #3 guy.. Severson would fit great with Hughes..Very exciting

We will also have to move a goalie before May 2021... Exciting futures and team is moving in the right direction....

 

Tanev - 31 in December, Need to move  away from this good player.  He has had serious injuries and will be hurt soon enough with his style of play...We will save 4.5 million and replace with a trade...

Edited July 26, 2020 by wildcam

[Ballisticsports.]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

 

 

TT to me is a luxury we can’t afford and we are better off cutting bait then throwing bad money at him.   
 

I like TT and i said this exact thing upon signing him, when BB got hurt

Had the season carried on, It looked like we wouldn't make the playoffs even after TT was signed

If Marky had been hurt a week or two earlier, which of your young prospects would have been gone to salvage a season, and have us struggling with over supply of goalies, loss of prospects with lower cap?

The shortened season may actually work into our favour now, and give us a much better chance that it was at the time of the acquisition and we could go far , and the payers we are stacked with may increase their trade value after the season ends hopefully?

The team time will not be as strong as it is right now for a few years imo, so if we do poorly, it will be a big disappointment

Play-ins soon

Looking forward to how we perform

[Noble 6]

All of those trades look good value wise, but the context around those deals matters. 

 

I wouldn't trade Virtanen unless we get a solid RHD back. Showing up below the mark in two training camps in one season is frustrating for everyone involved; coaches, fans, management and the player. But I don't think the signs that he showed this season should be ignored. He finally had a more consistent season and showed that he could possibly be an option in the top-6. I think in 2-3 years his head get's screwed on even tighter and we see an even more refined and committed player. There's no guarantee of this happening, but I think the chances of it happening if he get's traded are higher. So again, unless there's a RHD coming back (or possibly shedding Eriksson), I would prefer not the deal Virtanen even though the value in your proposed deal is good. 

 

I agree with you on the Pearson trade and I would also do that deal. I don't think the coaching staff or management would go for it though since Pearson was stapled to the 2nd line for the whole season no matter what. I think we have other options who could take that spot and at least replicate his numbers if not improve them, but again coaches seem to like him there. I would definitely take that deal though. 

 

I would be really happy with that third trade, but that's the one that I'm not sure the value is quite there. We're going to have to shed players like Beagle, Roussel and Eriksson to make room for Pettersson and Hughes' new deals, so getting a head start on that and not leaving it all to the last minute is a good idea. I'm not convinced Roussel would have positive value this summer given the numerous other options that very few teams will have to use their cap space (Killorn, Palat, Johnson, van Reimsdyk, Ladd, Boychuk, Johnsson, Kerfoot, R. Strome, Stastny, Stepan, Hjalmarsson, Steen, Bozak, etc.). These listed players are some of the players that teams with cap constraints will look to move. Considering that there will probably be about 4 teams that actually look to take on salary, there are a lot of options that look a lot better than Roussel either in the player being dumped or the pieces that will come with that dump. If a trade like this happens then great, but I don't think it will. 

 

The only other thing I would say is that Baertschi is done in Vancouver, rightly or wrongly. I still don't think he should have ever been sent down, but I don't think he plays any more significant time in the NHL with the Canucks, which is unfortunate to say the least.

[Amebushi]

Some interesting ideas here and three of the more realistic proposals I have read. Without digging too deep all I am going to say is that moves along these lines are going to be made all over the league. Many teams will be looking to shed salary in any way possible and exploiting any depth we have is going to be necessary. That being said the names staying and the names leaving should not be decided until after the play ins (and hopefully play offs) are over. If JV shuts everyone up after camp and lights it up (like a young guy with his size and skill set can do) he may just prove to be a big game player that we need. TT is a proven commodity and a solid player...but is he worth the price in today’s cap climate?  Will he take a short term contract at a discount or look to free agency for the big bucks?  Many why ifs here...what if Gaudette or Rous or Macewen step you’re huge for us?  I’m not guaranteeing anything but I am expecting a few surprises in these upcoming games. Some will be good and some will be bad. I don’t really care how a guy plays in camp or scrimmages or even at random games. Louie is consistently good in camp and games that don’t matter. It’s on the big stage I want to see Petey, Hughes, Virt, Bo, Gaudette, Mac as well as our vets and see who deserves to stay and who is a tradeable asset/cap dump. 

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, ba;;isticsports said:

I like TT and i said this exact thing upon signing him, when BB got hurt

Had the season carried on, It looked like we wouldn't make the playoffs even after TT was signed

If Marky had been hurt a week or two earlier, which of your young prospects would have been gone to salvage a season, and have us struggling with over supply of goalies, loss of prospects with lower cap?

The shortened season may actually work into our favour now, and give us a much better chance that it was at the time of the acquisition and we could go far , and the payers we are stacked with may increase their trade value after the season ends hopefully?

The team time will not be as strong as it is right now for a few years imo, so if we do poorly, it will be a big disappointment

Play-ins soon

Looking forward to how we perform

Everything you just said is true and exactly how I feel.  We were tanking big time at the end - going from at one point from  first all the way down to the outlier wild card area.   Not that it took far to go there either.   I felt the team caught a huge break by the league agreeing to and going ahead with the play-ins.   Now I just hope that we go further then expected and some of our vet placeholders really show up and raise their stock.   Great post. 

Edited July 26, 2020 by IBatch

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

All of those trades look good value wise, but the context around those deals matters. 

 

I wouldn't trade Virtanen unless we get a solid RHD back. Showing up below the mark in two training camps in one season is frustrating for everyone involved; coaches, fans, management and the player. But I don't think the signs that he showed this season should be ignored. He finally had a more consistent season and showed that he could possibly be an option in the top-6. I think in 2-3 years his head get's screwed on even tighter and we see an even more refined and committed player. There's no guarantee of this happening, but I think the chances of it happening if he get's traded are higher. So again, unless there's a RHD coming back (or possibly shedding Eriksson), I would prefer not the deal Virtanen even though the value in your proposed deal is good. 

 

I agree with you on the Pearson trade and I would also do that deal. I don't think the coaching staff or management would go for it though since Pearson was stapled to the 2nd line for the whole season no matter what. I think we have other options who could take that spot and at least replicate his numbers if not improve them, but again coaches seem to like him there. I would definitely take that deal though. 

 

I would be really happy with that third trade, but that's the one that I'm not sure the value is quite there. We're going to have to shed players like Beagle, Roussel and Eriksson to make room for Pettersson and Hughes' new deals, so getting a head start on that and not leaving it all to the last minute is a good idea. I'm not convinced Roussel would have positive value this summer given the numerous other options that very few teams will have to use their cap space (Killorn, Palat, Johnson, van Reimsdyk, Ladd, Boychuk, Johnsson, Kerfoot, R. Strome, Stastny, Stepan, Hjalmarsson, Steen, Bozak, etc.). These listed players are some of the players that teams with cap constraints will look to move. Considering that there will probably be about 4 teams that actually look to take on salary, there are a lot of options that look a lot better than Roussel either in the player being dumped or the pieces that will come with that dump. If a trade like this happens then great, but I don't think it will. 

 

The only other thing I would say is that Baertschi is done in Vancouver, rightly or wrongly. I still don't think he should have ever been sent down, but I don't think he plays any more significant time in the NHL with the Canucks, which is unfortunate to say the least.

Who do you think that were other options to replicate or even improve on Pearson’s stats?  Ferland never did that and was injured anyways - Roussel never came close and was also injured... Bear? Well we all know how that went and at the end of you post you stated you think he’s done in the NHL ... all he did was great things in the AHL...over a PGP player and now he’s only got one year left.   I think he’s the guy that will fight with a healthy (if he is) Ferland to play Pearson’s spot if he’s traded...wouldn’t count him out yet - especially considering Pearson is by far the lowest hanging trade bait we have that won’t hit us in the face if it back-fires.

[Noble 6]

55 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Who do you think that were other options to replicate or even improve on Pearson’s stats?  Ferland never did that and was injured anyways - Roussel never came close and was also injured... Bear? Well we all know how that went and at the end of you post you stated you think he’s done in the NHL ... all he did was great things in the AHL...over a PGP player and now he’s only got one year left.   I think he’s the guy that will fight with a healthy (if he is) Ferland to play Pearson’s spot if he’s traded...wouldn’t count him out yet - especially considering Pearson is by far the lowest hanging trade bait we have that won’t hit us in the face if it back-fires.

 

I think a healthy Roussel could definitely step into Pearson's spot and there wouldn't be much of a difference at all. A healthy Ferland probably could too, but we haven't seen that yet so I wouldn't rely on that. 

 

I think Pearson is a bit overrated offensively. He had 0 assists in his last 18 GP and frequently has 3-4 game stretches without any assists. He led the NHL with 6 empty net goals and a handful of empty net assists (playing with empty net assassin Loui Eriksson) which artificially pumped up his numbers. Pearson's non-empty net point total comes in at around 35 points, or almost exactly the same as Roussel's point totals from last year when he played with Horvat a bunch and before his injury. Horvat's even strength production went down this year and I don't think it's a coincidence that happened when Pearson was his most common linemate. 

 

Not to mention that we would only need to put somebody in that spot for one year before Podkolzin, Hoglander and/or Lind come in and are able to fight for spots. 

[BigTramFan]

5 hours ago, wildcam said:

I like your trade ides but don't think we can trade both Virtanen and Pearson... 

 

I like would move big Jake as I don't thing he will reach his potential in Vancouver..

We need to get a good return for Jake as he will be a top 6 forward...

 

Vertanen 24, 6'1, 220 --- Severson 6'2 , 26 -- solid #3 D man -- Good trade for both teams..

We need a top #3 guy.. Severson would fit great with Hughes..Very exciting

We will also have to move a goalie before May 2021... Exciting futures and team is moving in the right direction....

 

Tanev - 31 in December, Need to move  away from this good player.  He has had serious injuries and will be hurt soon enough with his style of play...We will save 4.5 million and replace with a trade...

Thanks for your feedback and thoughts.

 

I have seen you post the Virtanen for Severson idea a few times. Don't think NJD will do that trade. Defense is an area of weakness for them. Severson is arguably their best Dman (I think he is). They have some good young forwards on their roster and in their prospect pool, plus 3 first round picks this year. They don't need Virtanen and possibly see his off-ice issues and poor conditioning as attitudes that they don't want affecting their young core.

 

I don't think Virtanen gets you a top 4 RD period, maybe a D prospect or a fringe guy, but no one legit top 4.

[IBatch]

47 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

I think a healthy Roussel could definitely step into Pearson's spot and there wouldn't be much of a difference at all. A healthy Ferland probably could too, but we haven't seen that yet so I wouldn't rely on that. 

 

I think Pearson is a bit overrated offensively. He had 0 assists in his last 18 GP and frequently has 3-4 game stretches without any assists. He led the NHL with 6 empty net goals and a handful of empty net assists (playing with empty net assassin Loui Eriksson) which artificially pumped up his numbers. Pearson's non-empty net point total comes in at around 35 points, or almost exactly the same as Roussel's point totals from last year when he played with Horvat a bunch and before his injury. Horvat's even strength production went down this year and I don't think it's a coincidence that happened when Pearson was his most common linemate. 

 

Not to mention that we would only need to put somebody in that spot for one year before Podkolzin, Hoglander and/or Lind come in and are able to fight for spots. 

Ferland spent time on CAR top line and barely managed 40 points... Pearson just had a career year in 69 games.   Ferland career stats he’s scored 40 (playing with Aho a lot) and 41, and was a 20 goal scorer once (21), followed by 17, 15 and a bunch between 2-6.    Think your dreaming if you think he’s going to match Pearson’s production but who knows.  I’m also of the mind to trade Pearson - not because I don’t like him because I really do - but because we won’t have to give up anything to make it work (he becomes a cap dump with no cap back PLUS we actually get something back in return).   Don’t have high expectations given the market - a second or a Motte like return seems reasonable.   But it won’t be like what Sutter or Bear or Roussel or Benn or any of the other guys will cost (hoping playoffs change that for the better). 
 

Roussel has some game and maybe he can score 40 (so far 31 is his high water mark so not holding my breath).   But I do believe between these guys a Bear they can make it work.   Feel bad for Horvat - he deserves better support.  Sucks to think he might not get it until 7 years into his career or more ...

 

Edit: it kind of pisses me off that people on this site want to trade BB and JV just to keep our shiny new toy. JV last three years already look a lot like Ferlands best three seasons.   And definitely are on par with Roussels.   Yet some think he’s the guy to go.   Just stupid and foolish.   Cap wise after guys still on their ELCs he was our top performer to dollar ratio.    Losing one of our L side guys is a must IMO.   And still it won’t quite be enough.  
 

Edit:  As an aside Bears stats per games played are better then both Roussel and Ferland.   It’s his overall softer game that keeps him on the outside .... he’s the best 2nd line option after Pearson IMO as he’s better at it and he’s not suited for a bottom six role where as both Ferland and Roussel definitely are and that’s really where they should be too.  If anyone would match Pearson’s stats I’d bet for sure it could be Bear.   IF we somehow keep TT and JV I see JV taking the second line LW spot. 
 

Also Pearson was a minus four ... where as his linemate Horvat was a minus 15...go figure 

Edited July 26, 2020 by IBatch

[Noble 6]

16 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Ferland spent time on CAR top line and barely managed 40 points... Pearson just had a career year in 69 games.   Ferland career stats he’s scored 40 (playing with Aho a lot) and 41, and was a 20 goal scorer once (21), followed by 17, 15 and a bunch between 2-6.    Think your dreaming if you think he’s going to match Pearson’s production but who knows.  I’m also of the mind to trade Pearson - not because I don’t like him because I really do - but because we won’t have to give up anything to make it work (he becomes a cap dump with no cap back PLUS we actually get something back in return).   Don’t have high expectations given the market - a second or a Motte like return seems reasonable.   But it won’t be like what Sutter or Bear or Roussel or Benn or any of the other guys will cost (hoping playoffs change that for the better). 
 

Roussel has some game and maybe he can score 40 (so far 31 is his high water mark so not holding my breath).   But I do believe between these guys a Bear they can make it work.   Feel bad for Horvat - he deserves better support.  Sucks to think he might not get it until 7 years into his career or more ...

 

Edit: it kind of pisses me off that people on this site want to trade BB and JV just to keep our shiny new toy. JV last three years already look a lot like Ferlands best three seasons.   And definitely are on par with Roussels.   Yet some think he’s the guy to go.   Just stupid and foolish.   Cap wise after guys still on their ELCs he was our top performer to dollar ratio.    Losing one of our L side guys is a must IMO.   And still it won’t quite be enough.  

 

Those points on Ferland are fair and I had similar concerns with him when we signed him, but the bar we're talking about here is 30-35 points. I think he's capable of that when healthy, but we'll see when he gets to that point. Besides, Roussel was my primary replacement and he scored at essentially the same rate as Pearson (empty net points excluded) while not spending the entire year with Horvat. I'm sure Roussel could pick up a couple empty net points if he was given Pearson's ice time this year. 

 

I agree with what you're saying about moving Pearson. He would actually have positive value, which makes trading him a lot more appealing than dumping someone else. Again, I think coaching and management will probably keep him, but I definitely see the value in moving him. In addition, we could easily re-sign Leivo to a 1 year, 1.5M deal (the same deal he got this year) with the savings we get from moving Pearson and it works out perfectly. Leivo gets a one year "show me" deal after a good season was lost to injury and the Canucks get a cheap and effective 1 year stop gap before their young players step in (Podkolzin, Hoglander, Lind). 

 

I agree with the trade Boeser/Virtanen stuff. To me, letting Toffoli walk should be an easy decision. I would sign both Markstrom and Tanev before him. I have never really understood why some people are so intent on keeping him. There will be a bunch of teams that take trade losses due to Covid (Edmonton gave up assets for Green who played one game, got injured and then opted out) but we should just cut out losses and move on, not compound them with a multi-year contract. 

[BigTramFan]

8 hours ago, IBatch said:

Well finally someone  actually figured out exactly what the cost of signing TT long term could look like.

 

Madden plus a second plus JV, plus Benn, plus Pearson plus Roussel >>> then TT plus two seconds.    
 

TT to me is a luxury we can’t afford and we are better off cutting bait then throwing bad money at him. 

   

I respect your opinion regarding TT and JV, you clearly wish to keep JV over TT and that's fair enough.

 

I have a different opinion. I think TT is a better fit for our top 6 and I think he has shown he has great chemistry with Petey. I don't consider him a shiny new toy, I feel he is a professional vet that delivers consistently and has shown a good fit with our young core.

 

Regarding costs, I don't think your post above is accurate there are two completely different costs associated with Toffoli:

1. What we paid to have a top 6 RW at trade deadline to fill in for an injured Boeser

2. What we are willing to move to create cap space to sign a UFA top 6 RW

 

Part 1 cost us Madden + 2nd. That deal is done. There's no need to go any further if we don't want to. Whether it was worth it is going to be shown during this post season, as that is the time that we will see the true impact of Toffoli (positive or negative).

 

Part 2 is an option once we see how TT and JV perform. I can't see us finding the space to keep both players, so it is a bit of choice. If we prefer to resign TT over JV then the true cost is about an extra $2-2.5m in cap. This cap could be cleared by trading Benn. Of course we "lose" Virtanen, but this only occurs if we chose TT over JV. The return on JV could be something like 2 x 2nds - again we don't lose, we just turn the asset of JV into some other assets.

 

I think these play ins are make or break for Virtanen and his future with the Canucks. I really hope he proves me wrong and becomes the kind of player we have been hoping he can be!

 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, BigTramFan said:

I respect your opinion regarding TT and JV, you clearly wish to keep JV over TT and that's fair enough.

 

I have a different opinion. I think TT is a better fit for our top 6 and I think he has shown he has great chemistry with Petey. I don't consider him a shiny new toy, I feel he is a professional vet that delivers consistently and has shown a good fit with our young core.

 

Regarding costs, I don't think your post above is accurate there are two completely different costs associated with Toffoli:

1. What we paid to have a top 6 RW at trade deadline to fill in for an injured Boeser

2. What we are willing to move to create cap space to sign a UFA top 6 RW

 

Part 1 cost us Madden + 2nd. That deal is done. There's no need to go any further if we don't want to. Whether it was worth it is going to be shown during this post season, as that is the time that we will see the true impact of Toffoli (positive or negative).

 

Part 2 is an option once we see how TT and JV perform. I can't see us finding the space to keep both players, so it is a bit of choice. If we prefer to resign TT over JV then the true cost is about an extra $2-2.5m in cap. This cap could be cleared by trading Benn. Of course we "lose" Virtanen, but this only occurs if we chose TT over JV. The return on JV could be something like 2 x 2nds - again we don't lose, we just turn the asset of JV into some other assets.

 

I think these play ins are make or break for Virtanen and his future with the Canucks. I really hope he proves me wrong and becomes the kind of player we have been hoping he can be!

 

Benn won’t be easy to move.   LHD are 50% more common in the league then RHD (total team rosters), there will be plenty to pick from ... I suppose it’s possible but it could also come at a cost.   Plus we need the money for Markstrom and Tanev (Ceci/Hominic) first.  We’d have to trade Pearson just to pay for those two ... plus find more money to deal with the cap overages and AG plus JV.    I really doubt we have the options on the table for TT.   JV at a one year 2 - 2.5 makes sense for the team a lot more then saddling ourselves with another middle aged vet.   Plus if you go simply by stats - the extra 8 points TT got this year balances out pretty fast with JVs production by PPM played.   14 mins and 18/18 is third line elite production in 69 games.   Heck TT only managed that half of his career so far right?  I agree as of right now he’s a better player ... he’s also playing his hardest  to get his next deal - just like his last career season.   LE was a 30/30 guy ... we all know what happened there ... plus Okposo, Ryan, Foligno, Ladd, Backes, Neal, Skinner, Duchene ... the list goes on and on.   
 

The cost for TT is too high IMO .. we will likely lose Pearson or JV just to sign the other guys (AG, bonus overages, Stetcher etc)...Then what do we realistically do to sign TT? 

[BigTramFan]

Toffoli just turned 28 in April, let's not get silly and start comparing him to Loui! And we're not talking about a 6x6 deal. I would not sign him for more than 4 years.

 

IMO Boeser is not to be traded. So for the 2RW the decision that has to made is: Virtanen or Toffoli?

JV's 18/18 includes 6 goals from PP, so only 12 even strength goals. And although his point per minute production is very good, the goals are either on the powerplay or against weaker opposition, as JV was playing on either 3rd or 4th line. Don't get me wrong, I like what Jake brings and I would like to keep him too, but I think it's a straight choice between JV and TT this off season.

 

By comparison, TT had 24 goals (5 from PP). So he had 19 even strength goals playing more minutes but up against stronger opposition because he was playing on the top 2 lines of LAK or VAN.

 

Toffoli costs more because he is the better player right now. Who will perform best over the next 4 years? It's a guess. I would bet on Toffoli outperforming JV.

 

From the $ perspective. I covered that in my OP. That roster can comfortably fit under the cap limit. 

 

Don't get too caught up in who we have to "lose" to afford Toffoli. It just comes down to how do we cover the extra $2m cost of Toffoli over JV? If Toffoli proves he's a better player during the play ins, then there are lot's of ways to do it. Trading Benn is just an example.

 

You never know, Virtanen might come out and prove he's an absolute playoff beast! Then I will happily take the criticisms of my proposal to trade him. And I would expect JB will simply resign JV and let TT walk.