2021 NHL Entry Draft

[stawns]

8 minutes ago, BCNate said:

To me it's a win if we stay at 9.  We won't win the lottery, but hopefully not drop.

agreed

 

no way they are winning the lottery, to stay at #9 would be fantastic

[HighOnHockey]

3 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

 I love your list. It is not the same as mine, but that is ok! Here are my thoughts on it. I know you did not ask. LOL

 

1. I think Clarke at 1 is risky. I think he is more of a 5 to 8 guy. But I am being picky.

2. Sillinger is high on everything except skating......that makes me pause on his ranking...maybe 8 to 12ish?

3. I love your Svechkov ranking, it's the highest I have seen it, but you could be totally right!

4. I am thinking Wallstedt goes to one of Detroit, Columbus, San Jose or LA, mostly out of need, and bake time.

5. I hope you are right about McTavish, but I think he goes earlier

6. Love your Ceulemans projection. IMO, it's Clarkes IQ vs Ceulemans Tools, and IMO, they are closer than most have them.

7.I agree with you on Heimosalmi, he seems to be a MR. everything. Too bad he wasn't 6'2", because he would be in the top 10 otherwise.

8. Edvinsson is too low, IMO, but if he falls that much, someone will be getting a great Dman...the will get one anyways!

9. Lambos has great reports, yet low! Hmmm? I agree with where he is, but he is going to be a solid defender.

10. Raty is going to make someone happy

11. IMO Cossa could move up

12. I think Morrow will break into the late 1st round.

 

A lot of comments from me, but who knows really? Like I say, I love your list and it could easily be the most correct one. I do not see it as a weak draft, but rather a flat draft at the top. I am more interested in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, as I think those are the guys who don't necessarily get into international tournaments. And because I am so extremely interested in RHD this year, I like the RHD that are there....guys like Heimosalmo, that we both think will go higher, Morrow who is hovering in the late 1st round/early second, and then Schmidt, Mailloux and Bar(later 2nd round/early 3rd).

Thanks for the response. I won't respond point by point, but to a few. The teams that need goalies are irrelevant. This is not my prediction for where the players get picked, but where I would pick them. Same goes for McTavish, Very likely he'll end up going earlier, but I would be hesitant to pick him too soon. Personally, I'm just a little worried that he is ahead of the curve right now due to his physical maturity. I have little doubt he'll be a good NHL player, I'm just not sure how good.

 

For all of Clarke, Ceulemans, Heimosalmi and Svozil, I love their ability to escape danger in their own zones, in their own various ways. The biggest criticism I see about Heimosalmi is skating power, but his technique is fine, so I suspect as he gains strength that could improve.

 

On Edvinsson, I just think he's the biggest chance of anyone in the top 15 or so to bust outright and have trouble sticking in the NHL. As I've been saying, he usually looks fine in junior, or even Allsvenskan. It's just when he's up against high IQ, elite offensive players that he tends to bite on everything and get burned every time. Problem is that is most top nine forwards in the NHL, to some degree.

 

I'm gonna feel really stupid if Lambos ends up developing into a good player. I was so high on him early on, but I also had major question marks that he was never really able to address. Huge upside, but I get bad Cody Ceci vibes from him.

[Bertuzzipunch]

21 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

If we won the draft lottery Benning HAS to listen to offers, this draft is so up in the air with limited scouting so unlikely a team offers a king ransom but if they offered us a young RHD and or a young #3C plus if a team would take Holtby/LE/Roussel basically a cap dump of some form that would be nice.

 

A team with cap space and lots of assets is the Devils, would love to try and get rid of LE and his 6m or even if we retain 1-2m its still a big benefit to us. Zacha would be a nice fit for the #3C, they have young assets and picks too.

 

Any GM should listen to any offer, Canucks need to shake things up. Would love to see us free up a ton of cap space and move out LE, Holtby AND Meyers. We could then sign Hamonic, go after Hamilton or Barrie as JB seems to always be in on him. Better yet lets use these available expansion slots to our advantage and nab a good D or 2 AND a F!

 

This is my protection list:

 

F1. Petey               D1. Schmidt

F2. Horvat              D2. Open spot. Sign Hamonic after expansion draft

F.3 Miller                D3. Open spot

f4. Boeser

F5. Motte

F6. Gadjovich 

F7. Open spot/Lind if we dont trade for a player to protect

Thats why its important to fill those spots before the ED. We shouldnt be using spots for gadg, motte, or lind

[J.I.A.H.N]

6 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

Here's my top 32. Could call it my final rankings, but I'll probably continue to make tweaks. Before I get raked over the coals, a few words on my thought process. a. I decided that if I'm going to worry about aligning with the majority view of what the various experts and media scouts are saying, then what's the point? I've gotta go with my gut so I can take ownership, right or wrong. b. I'm just a fan. My career isn't on the line, so of course I'm not gonna be as risk averse as NHL scouts, meaning more emphasis on skill and potential upside (I had Raymond 2nd overall last year). c. I always put emphasis on two-way centers with skill, and with the way the game is going, extra emphasis is placed on skilled, shifty, evasive defensemen - Colorado is heralding the end of the #Corsi Era. Nobody can pin them in their zone when Makar and Girard are one-man breakout machines (Toews isn't bad either), and with their speed up front they just need to throw it into an opening and they're gone. Looks to me like we're moving toward a new era of more back-and-forth hockey (my friend uses the term "high-event") where the statistical focus is shifting from corsi to zone-entries/exits.

 

1. Brandt Clarke

2. William Eklund

3. Owen Power

4. Matthew Beniers

5. Luke Hughes

6. Cole Sillinger

7. Kent Johnson

8. Fyodor Svechkov

9. Dylan Guenther

10. Jesper Wallstedt

11. Mason McTavish

12. Corson Ceulemans

13. Fabian Lysell

14. Aleksi Heimosalmi

15. Chaz Lucius

16. Simon Edvinsson

17. Carson Lambos

18. Nikita Chibrikov

19. Stanislav Svozil

20. Brennan Othmann

21. Oskar Olausson

22. Aatu Raty

23. Zach Bolduc

24. Xavier Bourgault

25. Matthew Coronato

26. Sebastian Cossa

27. Ville Koivunen

28. Sasha Pastujov

29. Daniil Chayka

30. Francesco Pinelli

31. Isak Rosen

32. Simon Robertsson

 

Ahhhh, I get it now! (Just responding to your last post.

 

So, here is my idea of who I would take in that position...........

 

#1. Clarke

#2, Beniers

 

I do not think Clarke, Beniers, Powers, Johnson, Hughes or Eklund will be there at 9,10 or 11

 

#9 and 10. McTavish, Guenther, (in that order) 

. 

#11.any of the above  Ceulemans or Svenchkov most likely

 

We do not need Wallstedt or Cossa, so I am passing on them completely.

 

I would probably also pass on Sillinger (so Benning will take him), although I love everything about him except him skating.

 

I also think Edvinsson has boom or bust on him, and he reminds me of Edler a little.

 

My dark horse is Heimosalmi. If Benning thinks he can improve his skating, Benning will think long and hard on him, and if he thinks he can add some pounds and an inch or so, Benning will run up to the microphone to call his name over anyone else at 11. At 10 there might be someone still hanging on that Benning likes more, but from what I have read about Heimosalmi, he is a very solid Dman as is. IMO, he won the best Dman of the U18's, and that was against his pears, so that makes me think, he can handle the elite already. He is an enigma to me, as if he deserves to be taken earlier??????????????????????????????????????????

Edited June 1, 2021 by janisahockeynut

[stawns]

1 minute ago, janisahockeynut said:

Ahhhh, I get it now! (Just responding to your last post.

 

So, here is my idea of who I would take in that position...........

 

#1. Clarke

#2, Beniers

 

I do not think Clarke, Beniers, Powers, Johnson, Hughes or Eklund will be there

 

#9 and 10. Clarke, McTavish, Guenther, (in that order) 

. 

#11.any of the above  Ceulemans or Svenchkov most likely

 

We do not need Wallstedt or Cossa, so I am passing on them completely.

 

I would probably also pass on Sillinger (so Benning will take him), although I love everything about him except him skating.

 

I also think Edvinsson has boom or bust on him, and he reminds me of Edler a little.

 

My dark horse is Heimosalmi. If Benning thinks he can improve his skating, Benning will think long and hard on him, and if he thinks he can add some pounds and an inch or so, Benning will run up to the microphone to call his name over anyone else at 11. At 10 there might be someone still hanging on that Benning likes more, but from what I have read about Heimosalmi, he is a very solid Dman as is. IMO, he won the best Dman of the U18's, and that was against his pears, so that makes me think, he can handle the elite already. He is an enigma to me, as if he deserves to be taken earlier??????????????????????????????????????????

I don't think they'll be looking at a project player when picking that high.  I expect they'll want someone who plays the style they're looking for and can step into the roster in 2 years, 3 max.  If they pick 10-11, my guess is Svech

[MeanSeanBean]

4 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

Not so much moved up, as I just decided to trust my gut. Sillinger has been between 4 and 7 on every list I've done since my first one in early 2020. I'll just repeat or reiterate on Sillinger what I said not too long ago: he's a swiss army knife and a coach's dream. Competes hard every night, all over the ice. He's the first forward out for the PK, and he's effective in various postions of the PP - netfront, bumper, halfwall. He likely won't be best utilized on the point at higher levels, but he was often needed there this year for the 2nd worst team in the USHL. He was nearly a goal a game player through the first 15-20 games, despite a painful lack of offensive support. He is, in my opinion, the best netfront presence in the draft - creating havoc in the crease, shoveling garbage, and he's an elite shot-tipper. He's also strong on the boards, is committed on the forecheck and backcheck, and disrupts the flow of his opponents' game all over the ice. There are legitimate concerns about his skating, but I think his hockey IQ is high enough to overcome those. I see a ton of Joe Pavelski in him.

 

Svechkov, similarly, I had ranked in the early teens since my first list after the 2019 fall U17s. After 5NU17s in the spring, I suggested to a friend that I thought he might even be a top five pick. But then the media rankings started coming out and he was nowhere in the first round, so I started to question myself, but he was always somewhere between 10-15 for me. He was impressive enough at U18s to move up. I've always been impressed primarily with his playmaking ability - his hockey IQ is very high. He's not primarily a one-on-one threat, but he tends to pull up, slow things down, and draw defenders in to open up lanes. He does have some dekes in his arsenal, but his success rate one on one isn't particularly high. But his shot is good, and he's exceptional defensively, good on the boards, committed to checking. What changed for me at the U18s was his willingness to drive the puck into high-scoring areas more often than I'd seen from him before. Most of the games I'd watched from him this season were at the VHL level, where he played a quiet, responsible, two-way game, but when I went back and watched a shift-by-shift from late in the season when he was sent back to junior, he again looked a lot more confident challenging defenders and attacking the inside. I'm still not convinced he quite has the hands to be a top line offensive driver, but he should be a very good two-way second liner who can play center or wing, a la Logan Couture. Also like Couture, this kid is clutch. Scored the opening goal in the gold medal game at U17s and added two assists. In the championship clinching game at 5NU17s, he set Yurov up for the opening goal and soon after scored the insurance goal himself. He didn't have any points in the gold medal game at U18s, but I thought it was his best game of the tournament and one of the best games I've seen him play.

Hey, just want to give you a shoutout. You always have well thought out posts on prospects and I always enjoy reading what you have to say about them. You and Sid are always worth the price of admission.

[Bertuzzipunch]

15 minutes ago, shayster007 said:

Hey, just want to give you a shoutout. You always have well thought out posts on prospects and I always enjoy reading what you have to say about them. You and Sid are always worth the price of admission.

So do I actually 

[hammertime]

8 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

Here's my top 32. Could call it my final rankings, but I'll probably continue to make tweaks. Before I get raked over the coals, a few words on my thought process. a. I decided that if I'm going to worry about aligning with the majority view of what the various experts and media scouts are saying, then what's the point? I've gotta go with my gut so I can take ownership, right or wrong. b. I'm just a fan. My career isn't on the line, so of course I'm not gonna be as risk averse as NHL scouts, meaning more emphasis on skill and potential upside (I had Raymond 2nd overall last year). c. I always put emphasis on two-way centers with skill, and with the way the game is going, extra emphasis is placed on skilled, shifty, evasive defensemen - Colorado is heralding the end of the #Corsi Era. Nobody can pin them in their zone when Makar and Girard are one-man breakout machines (Toews isn't bad either), and with their speed up front they just need to throw it into an opening and they're gone. Looks to me like we're moving toward a new era of more back-and-forth hockey (my friend uses the term "high-event") where the statistical focus is shifting from corsi to zone-entries/exits.

 

1. Brandt Clarke

2. William Eklund

3. Owen Power

4. Matthew Beniers

5. Luke Hughes

6. Cole Sillinger

7. Kent Johnson

8. Fyodor Svechkov

9. Dylan Guenther

10. Jesper Wallstedt

11. Mason McTavish

12. Corson Ceulemans

13. Fabian Lysell

14. Aleksi Heimosalmi

15. Chaz Lucius

16. Simon Edvinsson

17. Carson Lambos

18. Nikita Chibrikov

19. Stanislav Svozil

20. Brennan Othmann

21. Oskar Olausson

22. Aatu Raty

23. Zach Bolduc

24. Xavier Bourgault

25. Matthew Coronato

26. Sebastian Cossa

27. Ville Koivunen

28. Sasha Pastujov

29. Daniil Chayka

30. Francesco Pinelli

31. Isak Rosen

32. Simon Robertsson

 

I really like this list I think you might be sleeping a bit on Robertson. I have Pinelli lower maybe I'm the one sleeping on Pinelli overall I think this is a great list. I understand why you have Edvinsson where you do however I think him McTavish and Raty have the ability to grow well above their rank. Overall though I find myself agreeing more than disagreeing love Svechkov Hemosalmi and Sillinger I feel this list Is actually well above par in terms of what media sources are reporting. 

[HighOnHockey]

2 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

Nice list! Good man sticking to your guns as well, I appreciate people who are able to form their own opinions, backed up by valid research of course, which you have.

 

Question for you regarding point C. At what point do you draw the line in picking "where the NHL is headed", and how does it play into BPA? I feel like I've been harping on BPA lately lol, and I'm not trying to keep that discussion going really. And I'm also not targeting you with these posts, I just find you bring up good discussion points, and I appreciate your thoughts!

 

To further explain my question, earlier in the thread, you explained how the NHL almost goes through rotations ie. Dead puck Era, Boston and LA's size, corsi Era etc. These cycles seem to last a few years or so and then change. Overall, the NHL has been moving to a more speed and skill based game, but within that there are niches of a size, skill, defensive, and now speed, teams that win. Your point on Colorado is excellent, but if you base your pick on it, and it takes the player 2-3 years to enter the league in a substantial way, what if that trend has changed? What if the size trend comes back ALA Boston and LA from 2010-2015? Would that not make that player not the BPA anymore? I guess there will always be teams who need such a player, and they are not only becoming more and more prominent, but also more valuable, so its not like they lose all value or anything. But they aren't the "flavor of the week" so to say.

 

For me, I think it's a bit of a mistake to look at how other teams are made to think about where to take your team. It's so difficult to win the Stanley Cup, and I think so many factors go into it, that basing your team off anothers success can lead to some pitfalls. For example, 2011 Canucks are the best team I can remember seeing through a whole season. If I remember right, they had the #1 PP, #2 PK, #1 goal differential. The team had it all. After losing to Boston, the talk was all about being soft and needing size. However, Boston was taken to game 7 by the Canadiens and Lightning, which either easily could have been in the cup finals instead of them, and maybe the Canucks win against those teams. Soon after, we draft Virtanen for that speed and size that we were so called missing. This is not to drag Virtanen at all, but if the logic behind it was potentially based on another teams success, it potentially affected our draft pick. How do you balance the idea of another teams success dictating your viewpoint when looking at player types?

 

Hopefully that makes sense. I ended up writing a lot more than I intended lol.

Oh man, you're gonna make me get into this aren't you? I can't just make grand theoretical claims in passing and leave it at that?

 

I'll try not to go too long. To start, of course you're right and I'm wrong. BPA über alles.

 

But the game doesn't just change. It evolves. Once you let a particular genie out of the bottle, you can't get it back in. I suck at skating and I know $&!# about skating mechanics so I try not to get into too much details on this stuff, but I will say, I made drastic improvements as a scout after discovering and spending a lot of time reading Daryl Belfry a few years ago. Belfry was the skills coach who worked independently with Crosby, Kane, and many other elite players, and later was hired by the Leafs. The point is not just working on skills, but he would analyze video and they would work on ways to better integrate skills into their individual games. It was only then that I fully realized that there's a science behind skill, and its just fun for us to talk about, but there are people with both with pro teams and national programs spending a lot of time and money taking this $&!# dead seriously. From what I understand, power skating was introduced into hockey a long time ago, only rudimentarily initially. About a decade ago you had Skinner come into the league with his figure skating background and largely because of his skating he was able to have some major success despite some glaring flaws in his game. Now you have guys like Antonio Stranges working with Bauer Hockey since he was 13 to develop this thing he does. Point here is, kids like Makar, Hughes, Drysdale, etc. are the next evolution. Of course I'm not claiming that they're reinventing the wheel, as I pointed out with Belfry, it's not their skating is so much different than elite skaters before them, but it's about integrating their elite skating into the game in new ways.

 

So that's one aspect of it - once these players are here, even if the game continues to evolve in different directions, this current evolution doesn't go away, it is part of the system that new developments have to evolve on top of, not in place of.

 

In addition, currently this new development isn't about money. I mean, Erik Karlsson makes 11.5 million dollars, but he was a signpost, a herald of what was coming, not a part of the development itself - he showed how the corsi era style could be subverted with elite skating agility and evasiveness and how one such one-man breakout machine could practically single-handenly carry the Senators to within one goal of the Cup Finals. Although 2017 was the highlight and beacon, Karlsson had been doing it for years, and largely because of him, suddenly the analytics community was obsessed with zone exits, and concurrently, skill coaches were interested in developing Makar, Drysdale, Hughes, Heiskanen. Similarly with the Sedins - leading up to 2011 analytics people had told GMs that corsi is the way of the future, but the question was, how to make best use of it? The Sedins' skilled cycle was one strategy, the Kings were the other. L.A. ended up winning out at that time, but not much later things shifted towards skill.

 

Anyway, kids like Drysdale and Makar are still very much at a premium, and still a few years from earning a king's ransom at UFA. Right now it isn't about who can afford them, but who can acquire them, and the best way to do that is at the draft. Colorado still has Bowen Byram coming up; God help us all. By the time the next shift happens, whatever that may be, there will be more of a saturation of these types of defensemen throughout the league. We have no way of knowing what the next evolution will be or when it will happen, but look at how quickly these kids were able to step in and be impact players. The best we can do is understand where the game is at right now and in the immediate future. But of course you're right, the game is gonna change and we can't predict it, so these factors can't be your primary consideration, you've gotta focus on getting the best players by any measure.

[HighOnHockey]

Triple post!

Edited June 1, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[HighOnHockey]

Double post

Edited June 1, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[Sp3nny]

26 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

Oh man, you're gonna make me get into this aren't you? I can't just make grand theoretical claims in passing and leave it at that?

 

I'll try not to go too long. To start, of course you're right and I'm wrong. BPA über alles.

 

But the game doesn't just change. It evolves. Once you let a particular genie out of the bottle, you can't get it back in. I suck at skating and I know $&!# about skating mechanics so I try not to get into too much details on this stuff, but I will say, I made drastic improvements as a scout after discovering and spending a lot of time reading Daryl Belfry a few years ago. Belfry was the skills coach who worked independently with Crosby, Kane, and many other elite players, and later was hired by the Leafs. The point is not just working on skills, but he would analyze video and they would work on ways to better integrate skills into their individual games. It was only then that I fully realized that there's a science behind skill, and its just fun for us to talk about, but there are people with both with pro teams and national programs spending a lot of time and money taking this $&!# dead seriously. From what I understand, power skating was introduced into hockey a long time ago, only rudimentarily initially. About a decade ago you had Skinner come into the league with his figure skating background and largely because of his skating he was able to have some major success despite some glaring flaws in his game. Now you have guys like Antonio Stranges working with Bauer Hockey since he was 13 to develop this thing he does. Point here is, kids like Makar, Hughes, Drysdale, etc. are the next evolution. Of course I'm not claiming that they're reinventing the wheel, as I pointed out with Belfry, it's not their skating is so much different than elite skaters before them, but it's about integrating their elite skating into the game in new ways.

 

So that's one aspect of it - once these players are here, even if the game continues to evolve in different directions, this current evolution doesn't go away, it is part of the system that new developments have to evolve on top of, not in place of.

 

In addition, currently this new development isn't about money. I mean, Erik Karlsson makes 11.5 million dollars, but he was a signpost, a herald of what was coming, not a part of the development itself - he showed how the corsi era style could be subverted with elite skating agility and evasiveness and how one such one-man breakout machine could practically single-handenly carry the Senators to within one goal of the Cup Finals. Although 2017 was the highlight and beacon, Karlsson had been doing it for years, and largely because of him, suddenly the analytics community was obsessed with zone exits, and concurrently, skill coaches were interested in developing Makar, Drysdale, Hughes, Heiskanen. Similarly with the Sedins - leading up to 2011 analytics people had told GMs that corsi is the way of the future, but the question was, how to make best use of it? The Sedins' skilled cycle was one strategy, the Kings were the other. L.A. ended up winning out at that time, but not much later things shifted towards skill.

 

Anyway, kids like Drysdale and Makar are still very much at a premium, and still a few years from earning a king's ransom at UFA. Right now it isn't about who can afford them, but who can acquire them, and the best way to do that is at the draft. Colorado still has Bowen Byram coming up; God help us all. By the time the next shift happens, whatever that may be, there will be more of a saturation of these types of defensemen throughout the league. We have no way of knowing what the next evolution will be or when it will happen, but look at how quickly these kids were able to step in and be impact players. The best we can do is understand where the game is at right now and in the immediate future. But of course you're right, the game is gonna change and we can't predict it, so these factors can't be your primary consideration, you've gotta focus on getting the best players by any measure.

Haha I swear the intent of my post wasn't to be right. I genuinely wanted to hear your thoughts in the way you analyze these kids as your insights seem very good and close to the way I think as well.

 

The skill levels of these kids these days is seriously incredible. You're so right on the evolving aspect, which is why I brought up the point of not necessarily following others path to success. Of course, you would be stupid not to try and use others success as a model, but there is so many ways to win a cup that I think sometimes it gets a bit abused in its interpretation.

 

Where I personally struggle with looking at prospects, or even current players, is I love the little things on the ice, but in an IQ sense. You brought up Colorado as an example, so I'll use Girard. When I watch Girard, he is so smart with his body positioning and skating, and it makes him an excellent rushing and possession defensemen in the model that you put a premium on in your list (and rightly so). He sees the ice extremely well, and 9 times of 10 he makes the smartest play, which is something that doesn't always get noticed. However, the rest of his game from a skills standpoint can leave something to be desired. Hit shot is pretty weak, his size obviously isn't a strength, and he uses an extremely short stick on top of it, which affects his ability to block passing lanes.

 

So many times, we want these kids to be good at everything. How many times do we see an excellent prospect get knocked because they aren't a defensive beast or a two way player? Or because they are small (this is starting to matter less as the game adapts, but some still put a premium on size). Of course it's important, but I always appreciate the teams that put players in a spot to succeed, and I always go back and forth on certain prospects for this reason. On one hand, I want to envision certain guys in the perfect role, but you also have to consider what they would be like outside of that role. And it makes it hard for me to rate Sillinger vs Johnson for example. Do you take the swiss army knife that can play anywhere, or the guy who if put in the right role could really excel?

 

This is where I can really appreciate your list in putting Heimosalmi ahead of Edvinsson for example. I really struggle with properly rating guys who have clear flaws, but are amazing in other areas ie. Raty. You seem to have found a really nice balance with that though, so good for you! At the end of the day, it's a guessing game, but boy is it fun to play! Appreciate your thoughts as always my friend.

[J.I.A.H.N]

1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said:

Oh man, you're gonna make me get into this aren't you? I can't just make grand theoretical claims in passing and leave it at that?

 

I'll try not to go too long. To start, of course you're right and I'm wrong. BPA über alles.

 

But the game doesn't just change. It evolves. Once you let a particular genie out of the bottle, you can't get it back in. I suck at skating and I know $&!# about skating mechanics so I try not to get into too much details on this stuff, but I will say, I made drastic improvements as a scout after discovering and spending a lot of time reading Daryl Belfry a few years ago. Belfry was the skills coach who worked independently with Crosby, Kane, and many other elite players, and later was hired by the Leafs. The point is not just working on skills, but he would analyze video and they would work on ways to better integrate skills into their individual games. It was only then that I fully realized that there's a science behind skill, and its just fun for us to talk about, but there are people with both with pro teams and national programs spending a lot of time and money taking this $&!# dead seriously. From what I understand, power skating was introduced into hockey a long time ago, only rudimentarily initially. About a decade ago you had Skinner come into the league with his figure skating background and largely because of his skating he was able to have some major success despite some glaring flaws in his game. Now you have guys like Antonio Stranges working with Bauer Hockey since he was 13 to develop this thing he does. Point here is, kids like Makar, Hughes, Drysdale, etc. are the next evolution. Of course I'm not claiming that they're reinventing the wheel, as I pointed out with Belfry, it's not their skating is so much different than elite skaters before them, but it's about integrating their elite skating into the game in new ways.

 

So that's one aspect of it - once these players are here, even if the game continues to evolve in different directions, this current evolution doesn't go away, it is part of the system that new developments have to evolve on top of, not in place of.

 

In addition, currently this new development isn't about money. I mean, Erik Karlsson makes 11.5 million dollars, but he was a signpost, a herald of what was coming, not a part of the development itself - he showed how the corsi era style could be subverted with elite skating agility and evasiveness and how one such one-man breakout machine could practically single-handenly carry the Senators to within one goal of the Cup Finals. Although 2017 was the highlight and beacon, Karlsson had been doing it for years, and largely because of him, suddenly the analytics community was obsessed with zone exits, and concurrently, skill coaches were interested in developing Makar, Drysdale, Hughes, Heiskanen. Similarly with the Sedins - leading up to 2011 analytics people had told GMs that corsi is the way of the future, but the question was, how to make best use of it? The Sedins' skilled cycle was one strategy, the Kings were the other. L.A. ended up winning out at that time, but not much later things shifted towards skill.

 

Anyway, kids like Drysdale and Makar are still very much at a premium, and still a few years from earning a king's ransom at UFA. Right now it isn't about who can afford them, but who can acquire them, and the best way to do that is at the draft. Colorado still has Bowen Byram coming up; God help us all. By the time the next shift happens, whatever that may be, there will be more of a saturation of these types of defensemen throughout the league. We have no way of knowing what the next evolution will be or when it will happen, but look at how quickly these kids were able to step in and be impact players. The best we can do is understand where the game is at right now and in the immediate future. But of course you're right, the game is gonna change and we can't predict it, so these factors can't be your primary consideration, you've gotta focus on getting the best players by any measure.

Hmmmmmmm!~ This gives me a head ache. Far too simplified. (This is not for you @HighOnHockey) but more to clarify.

Just for the record, Power skating at the elite level was being taught to Rep kids back 25 years ago, and I suspect longer than that. But that isn't my point........

 

 

Skating is a huge part of any evaluation, edges (turns), acceleration, starts, stops, forward and reverse. And elite players most have that to some extent, but some are at the lower end of that and some at the higher end of that.

But! and it is a big  BUT ! Elite skating without elite IQ, is absolutely nothing. One you can teach, and one is god given, so as much as I know and agree with you on the players you named, there are others.....Quinn Hughes, Mason Raymond, etc that have this elite skating, without the elite IQ. And we should explain that every player in the NHL has elite hockey IQ, but when compared to their piers, some have more, some less. Quinn Hughes is an extremely unusual case, because he has elite++++ offensive IQ, and minus elite defensive IQ. But never the less, in all cases it illustrates the point.

 

Also, something that gets misunderstood, and is part of a player profile is physicality, and IQ. A player who tries to get physical, but is not in proper position, will be made a fool of, on a regular basis. IQ goes into knowing instinctually when you are in position, to make your move and close gap or not. Nothin makes me laugh more when watching hockey games and seeing players completely miss a hit, only to find air, or the boards. (A lot of injuries happen this way....more in decades gone past)

 

BUT, and again a big BUT ! The playoffs and the intensity remains a very different beast, where, skating is used more for protection then fluffy stuff. Fluffy stuff is skating in the regular season, where players are trying to grind out their 82 game season without major injury. In the playoff, for the most part there are the lions and the lambs, which a much different beast.

 

The mental part of the game, becomes a much more important part, when dealing with Playoffs......

 

So for those that cared to read this dribble, what @HighOnHockey said is true and 1 part of it, as is my point, only one part of it. It is a much more complicated thing that these 2 posts try to explain.

 

A buddy of mine explained that each junior club does a profile on their players and provides it to scouts that ask for them, then reads them, and writes all over them with their notes. The one I have seen, looked like a 2 years olds coloring book at the end, but it had skating underlined...5 or 5 times. amongst other things. I found it very interesting. My buddy also said that some do not even ask for them.

 

These draft profiles we read take huge amounts of work, and they should be respected, but interpretation is what is the most important thing when reading one of those.

 

I digress....

[DeNiro]

Thoughts on Svechkov?

 

Looks like he had a great u18s and is described as being a “terror” to play against. Decent size and good numbers.

 

Are teams sleeping on him?

[ohmy]

1 hour ago, DeNiro said:

Thoughts on Svechkov?

 

Looks like he had a great u18s and is described as being a “terror” to play against. Decent size and good numbers.

 

Are teams sleeping on him?

The more I see and read about this kid the higher I am on him. Reminds me of Igor Larionov cerebral, smart, and skilled. Now that's a high high high bar but if hes anything close to that then I would take him with the 10th or maybe trade down a couple spots and grab him. Could play anywhere in your top 9.

[HighOnHockey]

2 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Hmmmmmmm!~ This gives me a head ache. Far too simplified. (This is not for you @HighOnHockey) but more to clarify.

Just for the record, Power skating at the elite level was being taught to Rep kids back 25 years ago, and I suspect longer than that. But that isn't my point........

 

 

Skating is a huge part of any evaluation, edges (turns), acceleration, starts, stops, forward and reverse. And elite players most have that to some extent, but some are at the lower end of that and some at the higher end of that.

But! and it is a big  BUT ! Elite skating without elite IQ, is absolutely nothing. One you can teach, and one is god given, so as much as I know and agree with you on the players you named, there are others.....Quinn Hughes, Mason Raymond, etc that have this elite skating, without the elite IQ. And we should explain that every player in the NHL has elite hockey IQ, but when compared to their piers, some have more, some less. Quinn Hughes is an extremely unusual case, because he has elite++++ offensive IQ, and minus elite defensive IQ. But never the less, in all cases it illustrates the point.

 

Also, something that gets misunderstood, and is part of a player profile is physicality, and IQ. A player who tries to get physical, but is not in proper position, will be made a fool of, on a regular basis. IQ goes into knowing instinctually when you are in position, to make your move and close gap or not. Nothin makes me laugh more when watching hockey games and seeing players completely miss a hit, only to find air, or the boards. (A lot of injuries happen this way....more in decades gone past)

 

BUT, and again a big BUT ! The playoffs and the intensity remains a very different beast, where, skating is used more for protection then fluffy stuff. Fluffy stuff is skating in the regular season, where players are trying to grind out their 82 game season without major injury. In the playoff, for the most part there are the lions and the lambs, which a much different beast.

 

The mental part of the game, becomes a much more important part, when dealing with Playoffs......

 

So for those that cared to read this dribble, what @HighOnHockey said is true and 1 part of it, as is my point, only one part of it. It is a much more complicated thing that these 2 posts try to explain.

 

A buddy of mine explained that each junior club does a profile on their players and provides it to scouts that ask for them, then reads them, and writes all over them with their notes. The one I have seen, looked like a 2 years olds coloring book at the end, but it had skating underlined...5 or 5 times. amongst other things. I found it very interesting. My buddy also said that some do not even ask for them.

 

These draft profiles we read take huge amounts of work, and they should be respected, but interpretation is what is the most important thing when reading one of those.

 

I digress....

This is funny, shortly after I made that post I thought of one clarification I wanted to add, but haven't had a chance until now. And this actually goes back to what @Sp3nny and I were discussing: the evaluation and BPA principle have to come first, other considerations are secondary. Yes, I am putting a premium on defensemen with elite evasive skating -  edges, agility, deceptiveness, but it's not like I'm saying that it is because of those skills that Makar and Heiskanen were able to have the impact they have in the NHL. Rather, elite young defensemen with with an elite understanding of the game, and with high level coaching, had some kind of understanding of what I'm talking about (it doesn't take an in-depth philosophical approach like mine, just watch prime Karlsson and be like "oh, I wanna do that"), and so they made those skating attributes part of their focus from fairly early on. And of course not every defenseman with elite evasive skating is going to be the next Makar, but the elite defensemen who do have those capabilities are going to be at a premium in the coming years.

Edited June 2, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[wildwood12]

We need to get into the top 2 of the lottery draw tomorrow.

[J.I.A.H.N]

2 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

This is funny, shortly after I made that post I thought of one clarification I wanted to add, but haven't had a chance until now. And this actually goes back to what @Sp3nny and I were discussing: the evaluation and BPA principle have to come first, other considerations are secondary. Yes, I am putting a premium on defensemen with elite evasive skating -  edges, agility, deceptiveness, but it's not like I'm saying that it is because of those skills that Makar and Heiskanen were able to have the impact they have in the NHL. Rather, elite young defensemen with with an elite understanding of the game, and with high level coaching, had some kind of understanding of what I'm talking about (it doesn't take an in-depth philosophical approach like mine, just watch prime Karlsson and be like "oh, I wanna do that"), and so they made those skating attributes part of their focus from fairly early on. And of course not every defenseman with elite evasive skating is going to be the next Makar, but the elite defensemen who do have those capabilities are going to be at a premium in the coming years.

LOL......just to be a pain in the arse.............exactly how do you fit Square Hughes into round criteria?

[hammertime]

2 hours ago, DeNiro said:

Thoughts on Svechkov?

 

Looks like he had a great u18s and is described as being a “terror” to play against. Decent size and good numbers.

 

Are teams sleeping on him?

I dont think they are. He will be drafted top 12 Many rankings are out to lunch but people who are actually paying attention will have taken notice. 

[JustABandwagoner]

Time stamped for 3:35 

 

"Vancouver won some games at the end of the season that didn't matter and moved themselves down the draft rankings, UPSET SOME FANS" - THG 

 

THATS ME!!!! It upset me