2021 NHL Entry Draft

[HighOnHockey]

5 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

Haha I swear the intent of my post wasn't to be right. I genuinely wanted to hear your thoughts in the way you analyze these kids as your insights seem very good and close to the way I think as well.

 

The skill levels of these kids these days is seriously incredible. You're so right on the evolving aspect, which is why I brought up the point of not necessarily following others path to success. Of course, you would be stupid not to try and use others success as a model, but there is so many ways to win a cup that I think sometimes it gets a bit abused in its interpretation.

 

Where I personally struggle with looking at prospects, or even current players, is I love the little things on the ice, but in an IQ sense. You brought up Colorado as an example, so I'll use Girard. When I watch Girard, he is so smart with his body positioning and skating, and it makes him an excellent rushing and possession defensemen in the model that you put a premium on in your list (and rightly so). He sees the ice extremely well, and 9 times of 10 he makes the smartest play, which is something that doesn't always get noticed. However, the rest of his game from a skills standpoint can leave something to be desired. Hit shot is pretty weak, his size obviously isn't a strength, and he uses an extremely short stick on top of it, which affects his ability to block passing lanes.

 

So many times, we want these kids to be good at everything. How many times do we see an excellent prospect get knocked because they aren't a defensive beast or a two way player? Or because they are small (this is starting to matter less as the game adapts, but some still put a premium on size). Of course it's important, but I always appreciate the teams that put players in a spot to succeed, and I always go back and forth on certain prospects for this reason. On one hand, I want to envision certain guys in the perfect role, but you also have to consider what they would be like outside of that role. And it makes it hard for me to rate Sillinger vs Johnson for example. Do you take the swiss army knife that can play anywhere, or the guy who if put in the right role could really excel?

 

This is where I can really appreciate your list in putting Heimosalmi ahead of Edvinsson for example. I really struggle with properly rating guys who have clear flaws, but are amazing in other areas ie. Raty. You seem to have found a really nice balance with that though, so good for you! At the end of the day, it's a guessing game, but boy is it fun to play! Appreciate your thoughts as always my friend.

 

I couldn't help but notice that a month after St. Louis won their Cup, Cole Caufield absolutely inexplicably fell to 15th overall, when he obviously should have been a top ten pick. How much of a coincidence was that? Or was it the copycat principle? Like you say, there's tons of different ways to have success, but only one per year that wins a Cup. I just had to wonder if teams saw St. Louis' big, heavy team winning the Cup and just reflexively got spooked about 5'7 Caufield.

 

I know what you mean about probelm-players and list-making. Braden Schneider last year is a great example. I thought he was arguably the best defensive defenseman of the draft, but had major concerns about his ability to make plays under pressure. My favorite poster over on HF agreed with my concerns, and said he would have Schneider on his do-not-draft list. I just don't have the balls for that. I think I still ended up ranking him mid-30s. And then Edvinsson and Raty this year. There's part of me that wants my teams to just stay the hell away from these players. But then I have to ask myself, :honestly, if he's there in the 2nd round, you wouldn't want to pick him?" Of course I would! But then you ask the question again, what if Edvinsson was there at 20 and Canucks had the pick (for some reason)? And more specifically, what if Canucks have the pick, and players X, Y, Z are still on the board?

 

Completely agree that hockey IQ is the number one most important factor. It can make up for a lot, or it can waste a lot of talent. But it can also be really tough to gauge. Wait til you see this kid for next year's draft, Gleb Trikozov. I've watched him a few times now while scouting Miroshnichenko since they play for the same team. Take everything about Perfetti and Johnson but magnify it, both good and bad. He's maybe not as purely skilled or creative as those guys, but still extremely skilled, plus he's 6'2, 185 lbs with a power element, and shows flashes of elite defensive play. Reminds me so much of Marian Hossa when he's Jeckyl. But he just constantly makes such incredibly stupid plays with the puck, turning it over trying to deke forecheckers behind or in front of his own net, it's wild. Part of me wants to think it's largely just over-confidence, but then you have to wonder, and this applies to Johnson and Lysell for this draft: you can't just get rid of bad habits; I mean, of course you can, but you can't just get rid of bad habits. You have to replace them with better habits. Unfortunately at 18 it can be really difficult to tell the difference between a high-IQ player with bad habits and a low IQ player. But like you say, it's all part of the fun, and man I love this $&!#.

Edited June 2, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[HighOnHockey]

1 hour ago, hammertime said:

I dont think they are. He will be drafted top 12 Many rankings are out to lunch but people who are actually paying attention will have taken notice. 

I was thinking the same thing, but without the same confidence. The truth is we have no idea what NHL teams think. McKenzie's list is the only indicator, and he still had Svechkov 30 at mid-season, but a few of his European rankings seem wonky this year, so I'm wondering if he has a bit of an over-representation of N.A. scouts. Who knows? Point is, you're probably right that NHL teams have him much higher, but we don't know. But I think you're right that most of the media rankings are just plain sleeping on him. No doubt he'll be a lot higher on most final lists, after his U18s.

[BPA]

If Canucks win the coveted #1 pick, would you trade it to CBJ for #6/7 pick + #23 pick?  

 

CBJ has 3 x 1st round draft picks at #5, #23, and #25 (according to NHL Tankathon).

 

[DeNiro]

1 minute ago, BPA said:

If Canucks win the coveted #1 pick, would you trade it to CBJ for #6/7 pick + #23 pick?  

 

CBJ has 3 x 1st round draft picks at #5, #23, and #25 (according to NHL Tankathon).

 

Nope gotta give up all 3.

 

Too much chance the 23 will equal nothing.

[Bruce Boudreau]

4 hours ago, DeNiro said:

Thoughts on Svechkov?

 

Looks like he had a great u18s and is described as being a “terror” to play against. Decent size and good numbers.

 

Are teams sleeping on him?

Who knows what his status is though? Will he be stuck in the KHL for another 3 years or not?

 

If you only have to wait 2 years for him he could be a huge steal as a poor man's Datsyuk defensive wise if he can add more to his game offensively and be more consistent he could be very good.

[BPA]

9 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Nope gotta give up all 3.

 

Too much chance the 23 will equal nothing.

CBJ counters with 2 x 1sts and 2nd.

[Bertuzzipunch]

1 hour ago, BPA said:

CBJ counters with 2 x 1sts and 2nd.

Then yes

[Sp3nny]

Been trying to identify a target for our 2nd as we have discussed much about our 1st. I know many have expressed desire for D prospects, but I've become really impressed with Mackie Samoskevich. His stats aren't eye popping, but man this guy just oozes skill. Lightning quick hands, nice shot that he uses to pick corners, and is willing to drive the net when the opportunity arises. He reminds me a bit of Hoglander as he really seems to buzz around out there, but I think his skating stride is less choppy so he looks really smooth. Seems to be mostly rated as an early 2nd, so he should have a reasonable chance of being available. Anyone have any thoughts on him? Don't think I've seen him mentioned before but I could have missed it.

[HighOnHockey]

7 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

Been trying to identify a target for our 2nd as we have discussed much about our 1st. I know many have expressed desire for D prospects, but I've become really impressed with Mackie Samoskevich. His stats aren't eye popping, but man this guy just oozes skill. Lightning quick hands, nice shot that he uses to pick corners, and is willing to drive the net when the opportunity arises. He reminds me a bit of Hoglander as he really seems to buzz around out there, but I think his skating stride is less choppy so he looks really smooth. Seems to be mostly rated as an early 2nd, so he should have a reasonable chance of being available. Anyone have any thoughts on him? Don't think I've seen him mentioned before but I could have missed it.

I hadn't seen him before. Just checked out the shift-by-shift on DITD. Was also a good opportunity to get a bit of another look at Coronato, who I haven't seen much. Coronato might be the worst in the class when it comes to those junior hockey habits. Samoskevich looks like a far more pro-style player. One plus for Coronato is he does seem pretty committed to defending, at least until his team get the puck, then he's streaking for the redline while Samoskevich is back supporting. Samoskevich flashes some skill at times, but picks his spots well. Mostly he just keeps things simple. Like the one play where he carries the puck through the neutral zone - he never actually challenges any defenders head on, but shows good awareness to find the holes and tight stickhandling and smooth skating to move through them. Good call man, looks like a great pick for the early second if he's there.

[HighOnHockey]

The later rounds are really tough this year. Usually an awful lot of my viewings all come at international tournaments; and there are a lot of opportunities - U17s, Hlinka, U18s, WJAC, and the various 4 or 5 nations. Generally I'll have a handful of players to focus on for each team, and the I'll just wait and see who stands out to me, and that's where my later round targets tend to come from. Everything has been so limited this year, so I was having to use U18s just to learn some of the top picks I was still not familiar enough with, like McTavish and Ceulemans even. No chance to really get to know the secondary players. I'm reasonably confident with my rankings up to around 15-20, but even there, some players like Lucius and Lambos I'm still very unsure about. After that I have very little to go on.

 

But a couple players I'll be watching for:

 

The other two Finnish forwards, Ville Koivunen and Samu Tuomaala. Koivunen looks smart, highly skilled, and confident with the puck. Likes to show off his skills with his club team, but rarely seemed to put himself in much trouble, and he shows with Suomi that he can reign it in and play a team concept. Looks like an easy first round pick to me, but pretty limited viewings so I might be missing something. Tuomaala is a feisty little guy with high skill level but plays a simpler, more, possession-oriented game. Loves to shoot the puck. Contrary to kids like Lysell, Coronato, I'd like to see Tuomaala use his skill to try to create more, although it sometimes seems like his tenacity and hockey sense are high enough that he's able to create offense without having to force things.

 

Guillaume Richard and Logan Stankoven stood out as secondary players for Canada. Richard loves to carry the puck from the back end and make plays, and has the skill to make things happen. Looks like Stankoven has super high hockey sense, which could allow him to be successful despite his size. Always in good positions and finding way to create offense. Wouldn't surprise me that much if he goes late in the first round.

 

No idea where he might go, but Daniil Lazutin is a guy I'll be watching for closely after the first round. Strong two-way center with some skills and a bit of a power game. My kind of player - constantly disrupting transition, getting in hard on the backcheck and forecheck. Not as skilled as some other kids on SKA like Ivantsov, Chibrikov, Buchelnikov so he was relegated to a checking line center role. He'll be better suited to the North American game.

[McBackup]

Honestly I won't really start looking at prospects until I know where we're picking.

[Sp3nny]

3 hours ago, HighOnHockey said:

I hadn't seen him before. Just checked out the shift-by-shift on DITD. Was also a good opportunity to get a bit of another look at Coronato, who I haven't seen much. Coronato might be the worst in the class when it comes to those junior hockey habits. Samoskevich looks like a far more pro-style player. One plus for Coronato is he does seem pretty committed to defending, at least until his team get the puck, then he's streaking for the redline while Samoskevich is back supporting. Samoskevich flashes some skill at times, but picks his spots well. Mostly he just keeps things simple. Like the one play where he carries the puck through the neutral zone - he never actually challenges any defenders head on, but shows good awareness to find the holes and tight stickhandling and smooth skating to move through them. Good call man, looks like a great pick for the early second if he's there.

What's funny is I was looking for tape on Coronato, and Sameskovich caught my eye. So I started looking at him, and was more impressed with him then Coronato to be completely honest.

 

He doesn't look amazing or anything, but like you said, it looks like he has a translatable game. He seems to make really good decisions, but also flashes a surprising amount of skill when needed. At first, the highlights I saw he was driving the net a lot but couldn't finish it, so I thought maybe he just had good hands, but no finish. But then by the end he had a couple nice one timers and shots that picked the corner, which is what swayed me to think there could actually be something there.

 

For a guy I had heard nothing about, I am pretty impressed. And the fact his stats don't exactly wow you, he might be able to fly under the radar but actually be a solid pick.

[R3aL]

1 hour ago, McBackup said:

Honestly I won't really start looking at prospects until I know where we're picking.

Might as well start looking now cause the conversation doesn’t change much.

 

 

[Nucker 67]

Is Mason McTavish similar to a Boeser type of player? (just at C)   

Not the greatest skater, but has a lethal shot and scores. 

 

Looking at his stats:

2017/18 - Ottawa Valley Titans (U15) - in 30 games:  49 goals 34 assists = 83 points

2018/19 - Pembroke Lumber Kings (U18) - in 41 games:  47 goals 32 assists = 79 points  Wow!

 

Mind you, those are kid's leagues, but even for the Petes (OHL) in 2019/20 he scored 29 goals and I imagine he'll only get better as he develops. Can always use a top 6C

[DeNiro]

33 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Is Mason McTavish similar to a Boeser type of player? (just at C)   

Not the greatest skater, but has a lethal shot and scores. 

 

Looking at his stats:

2017/18 - Ottawa Valley Titans (U15) - in 30 games:  49 goals 34 assists = 83 points

2018/19 - Pembroke Lumber Kings (U18) - in 41 games:  47 goals 32 assists = 79 points  Wow!

 

Mind you, those are kid's leagues, but even for the Petes (OHL) in 2019/20 he scored 29 goals and I imagine he'll only get better as he develops. Can always use a top 6C

We need a playmaker IMO.

 

We have enough shoot first guys in the top 6, we need more guys that find open ice and make plays out of nothing. 
 

We saw what happened to the first line when Petey was out. We need a player like that for the second line.

[Nucker 67]

Just heard on SN650, a possible scenario for VAN and the lottery 

 

1. ARI

2. VAN

 

ARI isn't allowed the 1st this year, so it would automatically go to VAN   lol  

[86Viking]

1 minute ago, NUCKER67 said:

Just heard on SN650, a possible scenario for VAN and the lottery 

 

1. ARI

2. VAN

 

ARI isn't allowed the 1st this year, so it would automatically go to VAN   lol  

League would re do it if Arizona won 1 or 2 overall due to forfeiting their pick

[DeNiro]

5 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

League would re do it if Arizona won 1 or 2 overall due to forfeiting their pick

I could see that happening to Buffalo more likely.

[Fanuck]

10 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Just heard on SN650, a possible scenario for VAN and the lottery 

 

1. ARI

2. VAN

 

ARI isn't allowed the 1st this year, so it would automatically go to VAN   lol  

Sure, an infinitesimal possibility, but anything for ratings right......

[HockeyHarry]

Powers ,Luke Hughes , Kent Johnson , and Beniers. 
 

All playing next year at Michigan. Thats a pretty good and exciting Collage team.