[Discussion] Seth Jones again...

[Bertuzzipunch]

1 minute ago, Devron44 said:

Players or personnel? I like our defencemen. I still think we need that no.1 right hander but our defence shouldn’t be as bad as it was last year imo. I think we would improve with the same guys next year, not a whole bunch but the familiarity is there now and I think they can build on that now. However we still need to add a guy like a Jones ideally I’m not going to argue that. 

I agree it shouldnt have been as bad as it was but it was bad, real bad. We all saw it. 

[Where's Wellwood]

I heard on the radio that CBJ wants a center (they lost Dubois). We don't have the center depth to trade away

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, VegasCanuck said:

He can decide that he won't sign an extension with the team that he's traded to. That gives him leverage, unless you're happy trading significant assets for one year here.

Gotcha - absolutely.   EK as a rental turned into a pretty big pot for OTT, as it should have, figure Seth Jones won't stay unless he also gets paid big bucks, and that we have zero business entertaining anything but a trade and sign (which has happened often enough to be a subject to consider).   

[IBatch]

11 minutes ago, Where's Wellwood said:

I heard on the radio that CBJ wants a center (they lost Dubois). We don't have the center depth to trade away

Miller or Horvat.   At some point this team simply needs to make a change.   Not saying this is the change, but both will end up UFAs soon enough themselves.  Is Seth Jones the right guy and would CLB be interested in either?  Horvat maybe.   Same age.   Makes some sense for both teams.   A trade like this isn't going to not hurt if it's done.   

[4petesake]

6 hours ago, Patel Bure said:

Great post.  You nailed it.  
 

For me, especially in this flat cap world, it’s not so much about “who is the best player,” but rather, who brings the best value for his money?   Beyond next season, Jones will cost you north of 9 million.

 

By contrast, maybe a guy like Hampus Lindholm will come between 6 and 6.5 million, or a guy like Adam Larsson or David Savard coming in at 4.5-5 million.  That net difference in salary could be used to get another player......like a 3rd line center for instance.  
 

Cost controlled elite talent + depth = championships.  That has been the model since Chicago 2010.   

Just tossing another name out that fits into the group you mentioned - Ryan Pulock from the Islanders. He’s UFA after next year, first pairing RD, 6’2 215 so good size, and pretty gifted offensively. Maybe not that ideal pairing for QH though.

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, Fanuck said:

I think there exists a huge gap between the current 'market' value of a player like Seth Jones and the actual 'on-ice' value he presents.  Yes, CBJ was not great this year and yes, Torts systems probably didn't do him any favors, but even taking that into consideration there were some glaring inconsistencies to Jones' game this season (yes, I know it was an atypical season) which would put a huge 'red flag' beside this player if I were a GM - especially on a player coming off an inconsistent year who has one year left before UFA.  Jones will no doubt be looking for top 5 defenceman money (that's top 5 in the league, not on a team) and that puts him in the minimum $10, 000 000.00/yr range with clauses.  If you don't do your due diligence as a GM/franchise before considering this you could be potentially looking at a world of hurt cap-wise in the not too distant future. 

There isn't a GM in the league that's paying him 10.   He hasn't come close to earning that.   Given he's a RHD he is going to get a premium maybe similar to what AP got but he hasn't even earned that.  Hamilton is better.   And should get  8 x 8 at least.    Why would you consider Seth Jones a top five D?  He's not even a top five RHD although yes a top ten one.   No way any team would offer him that even pre-covid.   Some team might offer him 8 x 8.   Even that's not great value although you can bet he's going to do everything he can next season for a big pay day.    He's a 7-8 million UFA RHD.    That's about it.   And IF we decide to go for it - that's the range we should ask for as a sign and trade deal. 

[Fanuck]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

There isn't a GM in the league that's paying him 10.   He hasn't come close to earning that.   Given he's a RHD he is going to get a premium maybe similar to what AP got but he hasn't even earned that.  Hamilton is better.   And should get  8 x 8 at least.    Why would you consider Seth Jones a top five D?  He's not even a top five RHD although yes a top ten one.   No way any team would offer him that even pre-covid.   Some team might offer him 8 x 8.   Even that's not great value although you can bet he's going to do everything he can next season for a big pay day.    He's a 7-8 million UFA RHD.    That's about it.   And IF we decide to go for it - that's the range we should ask for as a sign and trade deal. 

I understand your reasoning,  and I never said I would consider him a top 5 d-man in the league - in fact I clearly pointed out inconsistencies in his game which would give me great pause before contemplating acquiring this player - but I could easily see his agent making that case and subsequently I could easily envision a GM overpaying at around 10mil/yr.  Now covid as we all know has adjusted the market but in a regular market I don't see a 10mil per contract as a ridiculous reach for this player.  This article outlines a reasonable scenario where this type of contract wouldn't be that much of an overpayment in non covid market environment and we've already seen the measures loosening in the US, we're closer to the end of covid market and more normalcy than we are to the beginning imo.

 

https://www.1stohiobattery.com/columbus-blue-jackets-analysis/2021/05/6083/what-should-seth-jones-next-contract-be?amp

[fanfor42]

Probably a third of all teams in the NHL will be interested enough to make a pitch for Jones.  So he won't come cheap.  No way 9OA plus Schmidt plus Lind is the winning bid.  We would have to give up Hogz or Podz not Lind.  Plus resigning him won't be cheap. He is gonna want a big payday.

 

Columbus is not in a weak position just cuz Jones says he won't resign.  10 teams will take a run at this and they will get a big price from the resulting bidding war.

 

 

[HKSR]

31 minutes ago, fanfor42 said:

Probably a third of all teams in the NHL will be interested enough to make a pitch for Jones.  So he won't come cheap.  No way 9OA plus Schmidt plus Lind is the winning bid.  We would have to give up Hogz or Podz not Lind.  Plus resigning him won't be cheap. He is gonna want a big payday.

 

Columbus is not in a weak position just cuz Jones says he won't resign.  10 teams will take a run at this and they will get a big price from the resulting bidding war.

 

 

I think you underestimate the value of that 9OA pick.

[Fanuck]

7 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think you underestimate the value of that 9OA pick.

Perhaps this may be true.   But otoh it's considered both a relatively average draft with huge levels of uncertainty due to lack of playing time for prospects.   That weighed against a more or less proven do it all franchise defenceman in his prime with potential to become even better on a more skilled team would have many a gm looking hard at this imo.

[86Viking]

On 6/4/2021 at 9:58 AM, HKSR said:

Probably sick of hearing about Seth Jones, but if this is what it took to get him in a Canucks uniform next year (and assuming the Canucks get to speak to him regarding a contract extension first)... would you do it?

 

To VAN:

Seth Jones

 

To CBJ:

9OA

Nate Schmidt

Kole Lind

I prefer waiting till July 1st 2022, see which D are UFA's and sign them without giving up a top ten pick AND a top 4D AND a decent prospect...We are still rebuilding, that kind of a deal is what a perennial playoff team makes not a team who can't make the playoffs.

 

Parayko, Jones, Rielly, Subban, Letang, Nurse, Ristolainen, Lindholm, Pulock, Kilngberg, Manson, Murphy, Ekholm, McNabb, Stecher, Miller

 

All I can say is wow...2022 D UFA class is quite strong, clear out cap space and look at all the options for RHD the Canuck GM would have a chance at possibly signing!

[fanfor42]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

I think you underestimate the value of that 9OA pick.

No I don't, not at all.  I'm just pointing out something fans often forget when they focus on what the Canucks might offer.  There are a dozen teams with high picks who could all be interested in trading for Jones.  We have the 9th best pick to offer.  Other teams may add a better package as well. That's all.

 

I think you underestimate the competition there will be to land this guy.