Inflation : 40 Year High

[AV's Coin]

 

[UnkNuk]

11 hours ago, AV's Coin said:

 

Don't hate the player, hate the game.

 

Okay.  Isn't that what the left has been trying to do for many years - trying to change the rules of the game/financial system wherein a few have become fabulously wealthy while many more have stagnated or declined in wealth?

 

And if inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods, maybe we can decrease the money supply by taking a few billion from the members of the ultra-rich and retiring it?  Start a sort of "trickle-down" process wherein the money supply becomes more balanced.

 

As for a mutual fund for buying art?  I dunno.  

[Guest]

21 hours ago, AV's Coin said:

 

She's very cute  

 

And yes, agree with what she said except not sold on buying art haha 

[ronthecivil]

On 6/19/2022 at 12:25 AM, AV's Coin said:

 

Increasing the money supply to pay for things like CERB very much contribute to inflation.

 

High oil prices are a big influence as well but that's not mentioned at all.

 

Art has no intrinsic value but is a luxury item so if your long billionaires than maybe? Not for me but whatevs.

[Boudrias]

On 6/18/2022 at 9:36 AM, Warhippy said:

We're at that perfect tipping point where major economists politicians and sound economic theory are warning that stagflation may be setting in and inflation is rampant.  That the percentages indicated may be off by 4% to 7% depending on the nation of state/province spoken of.  They all indicate or suggest a recession of some severity is coming.

 

Yet another group, the wealthy and the vocal are saying that the numbers don't say that at all.  Ironically they are usually the type to fight against the government.  That employment numbers, personal wealth and high demand for product and property are too strong to see anything major happen.  That much of it is supply chain issues that can be worked out.

 

Both groups appear to be right and the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  I work in a so called "lipstick industry" in that it is recession proof, because even in the worst economic climates people want to feel good about themselves and will spend.  I am seeing some significant losses and pull back from corporate clients and personal sales.  Restaurants are emptier on busy nights.  People are holding off on major purchases and home renos.  

 

I am not economically smart enough to know the terms or read the data like yourself and futz.  In fact I'd say I am ignorant in the truest sense of the word but always curious about how things work or of the opinion of people smarter about this subject than myself.  I fail in my industry and with seeing everything that's going on in a near perfect storm; how things CAN'T be bad and how something bad isn't coming.

 

Home owners bought homes they couldn't afford.  Interest rates going up, they'll have to choose between lifestyle and home.  Then as it worsens between home and bills.

People lived on borrowed credit to fund their $100k lifestyles on $40k a year wages.  Their monthly minimums will increase with interest rates.  They can't afford more payments.

Home owners who were eligible applied for multiple (this is scary btw, look at those numbers if you can) reverse home mortgages.  Now those bills are increasing their $ isn't

Food up 30% fuel up 70% housing costs increasing by double digit percentages monthly.

Nations spent to the bloody hilt. Now they have the choice of helping the people or helping the business class with what's coming and we know who will benefit.

 

I mean, between all that and no laws to prevent a run on homes, farmland, property, foreclosures or repossessions on luxury items or properties by corporations and foreign investors I can't see how this is going to end well at all in the short term

Well Hip, we often don't agree but I would never doubt your inquiring mind and superior ability to investigate why things happen. 

 

Some thought to consider:

1) Where did the inflation come from? Demand. Uber low interest rates forced trillions of $'s out of the bond market into higher risk investments like stocks and real estate to give investors a return to fund their retirement. Not just individuals but also pensions and corporations. IMHO low interest rates were caused by a fight for global investment as world GDP was 'stagflating'. Limited growth. Demographics will return us to this scenario. 

2) Global Warming: OK climate change if that works better. A massive misdirection of investment and accountability. Climate activists were making the call but the politicians and business leaders did not do a very good job of creating a plan or developing metrics to measure success or failure. 

3) Personal responsibility: Unfortunately we are not all created equally and some will face greater challenges than others. If any comfort the vast majority of wealthy people do not retain their fortunes past the 3rd generation. Many people cannot do the arithmetic that tells them NO to a financial decision. My son can and I admire his decision not to buy a house he said they could not afford. Financial awareness does not put a roof over a families head when their rental options don't exist. Many bought houses as they scrapped a down payment together. They will likely be ruined if housing values tank. Even Trudeau can't print enough money to save this situation. There is a bottom line and always has been. What's the saying, "there are no guarantees". I worry that many will come to realize that. Not everyone can be made whole. 

4) Responsibility of Government: The #1 responsibility by government is to keep the country's finances in order. There is a limit and that has been ignored for too long. The hard questions and decisions were ignored. Just as low interest rates destroyed the bond market the printing of trillions of $'s has caused inflation. The risks associated with this were never thrashed out. Blaming corporate gougers or rich people is a convenient diversion. It won't solve where we are headed.   

[ronthecivil]

Good example from the news of how green policies are inflationary....

 

The ban on single use plastics (well a few of them anyways....)

 

It makes the cost of providing straws and bags and what not higher, which makes the end price higher. Inflationary.

 

Sure, it makes money (hopefully one of these days) for people who own stock in producers of non plastic products that are going to replace them, but I bet that's not that many people! 

[Warhippy]

34 minutes ago, ronthecivil said:

Good example from the news of how green policies are inflationary....

 

The ban on single use plastics (well a few of them anyways....)

 

It makes the cost of providing straws and bags and what not higher, which makes the end price higher. Inflationary.

 

Sure, it makes money (hopefully one of these days) for people who own stock in producers of non plastic products that are going to replace them, but I bet that's not that many people! 

Good example of how they are also job creators.

 

A ban on single use plastics allows for an influx of carbon/green biodegradable bags.  A company will be created to make the straws, a company and industry will be created to make those bags.  A company and industry will be created to create the cellulosic material to create those bags.

 

The thing is, for every reason that it's bad; there's a half dozen reason why it's good to better.  the creation of green industry will in fact create far more jobs than it takes that will probably pay comparably to what big oil is paying.  Solar, geothermal, wind turbine and ocean turbine as well as LNG job creation is set to vastly outpace the endless automation of oil and gas in the near future.  This is just in the implementation phase.  once the infrastructure starts being built it will be job creation on steroids much like it was during the advent of oil and gas exploration and petroleum refinement.

 

On the flip side, we can see oil is dropping.  Prices keep climbing though, so it is in fact a far greater indicator of outright greed that is not in keeping with current economic supply and trade.  Light crude dropped $13.40 in 11 days and zero reduction at the pumps.  It increases by $3 and prices jump.  When people say you can not blame oil for being part of the inflation issue or suggest that it is not a big driver I have to shake my head.  The clear and present willingness for oil and gas and corporations in general to continue to steam roll consumers with out of touch prices continues to be as great an inflationary driver as the printing of money.

 

The average person does not feel the benefit of printed money, but they sure as hell feel the price at the pumps or when they buy peanut butter that has gotten smaller but increased in price

Edited June 21, 2022 by Warhippy

[Ilunga]

On 6/20/2022 at 5:11 AM, UnkNuk said:

Don't hate the player, hate the game.

 

Okay.  Isn't that what the left has been trying to do for many years - trying to change the rules of the game/financial system wherein a few have become fabulously wealthy while many more have stagnated or declined in wealth?

 

And if inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods, maybe we can decrease the money supply by taking a few billion from the members of the ultra-rich and retiring it?  Start a sort of "trickle-down" process wherein the money supply becomes more balanced.

 

As for a mutual fund for buying art?  I dunno.  

Every man a king 

 

 

 

https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/hueyplongking.htm

 

 

[flanny]

10 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Good example of how they are also job creators.

 

A ban on single use plastics allows for an influx of carbon/green biodegradable bags.  A company will be created to make the straws, a company and industry will be created to make those bags.  A company and industry will be created to create the cellulosic material to create those bags.

 

The thing is, for every reason that it's bad; there's a half dozen reason why it's good to better.  the creation of green industry will in fact create far more jobs than it takes that will probably pay comparably to what big oil is paying.  Solar, geothermal, wind turbine and ocean turbine as well as LNG job creation is set to vastly outpace the endless automation of oil and gas in the near future.  This is just in the implementation phase.  once the infrastructure starts being built it will be job creation on steroids much like it was during the advent of oil and gas exploration and petroleum refinement.

 

On the flip side, we can see oil is dropping.  Prices keep climbing though, so it is in fact a far greater indicator of outright greed that is not in keeping with current economic supply and trade.  Light crude dropped $13.40 in 11 days and zero reduction at the pumps.  It increases by $3 and prices jump.  When people say you can not blame oil for being part of the inflation issue or suggest that it is not a big driver I have to shake my head.  The clear and present willingness for oil and gas and corporations in general to continue to steam roll consumers with out of touch prices continues to be as great an inflationary driver as the printing of money.

 

The average person does not feel the benefit of printed money, but they sure as hell feel the price at the pumps or when they buy peanut butter that has gotten smaller but increased in price

I agree oil along with money printing for covid policies are the two major causes of inflation, but I need someone to explain to me why it is my greed (as a shareholder, I am the oil company) and not green pipeline politics that has caused the market to be under supplied that is to blame. I certainly was not greedy when I had to pay $20 a barrel for the market to take it away a few years ago. Where does the idea that I am setting the price now come from, besides Biden's cronies.  But maybe I'm wrong. How am I controlling the oil price?

[Elias Pettersson]

Yeah we're screwed...

 

[ronthecivil]

14 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Good example of how they are also job creators.

 

A ban on single use plastics allows for an influx of carbon/green biodegradable bags.  A company will be created to make the straws, a company and industry will be created to make those bags.  A company and industry will be created to create the cellulosic material to create those bags.

 

The thing is, for every reason that it's bad; there's a half dozen reason why it's good to better.  the creation of green industry will in fact create far more jobs than it takes that will probably pay comparably to what big oil is paying.  Solar, geothermal, wind turbine and ocean turbine as well as LNG job creation is set to vastly outpace the endless automation of oil and gas in the near future.  This is just in the implementation phase.  once the infrastructure starts being built it will be job creation on steroids much like it was during the advent of oil and gas exploration and petroleum refinement.

 

On the flip side, we can see oil is dropping.  Prices keep climbing though, so it is in fact a far greater indicator of outright greed that is not in keeping with current economic supply and trade.  Light crude dropped $13.40 in 11 days and zero reduction at the pumps.  It increases by $3 and prices jump.  When people say you can not blame oil for being part of the inflation issue or suggest that it is not a big driver I have to shake my head.  The clear and present willingness for oil and gas and corporations in general to continue to steam roll consumers with out of touch prices continues to be as great an inflationary driver as the printing of money.

 

The average person does not feel the benefit of printed money, but they sure as hell feel the price at the pumps or when they buy peanut butter that has gotten smaller but increased in price

I put like a full position into Good Naturered Products so I expect long the good returns. The risks of flack along the way is acceptable

[Warhippy]

11 hours ago, flanny said:

I agree oil along with money printing for covid policies are the two major causes of inflation, but I need someone to explain to me why it is my greed (as a shareholder, I am the oil company) and not green pipeline politics that has caused the market to be under supplied that is to blame. I certainly was not greedy when I had to pay $20 a barrel for the market to take it away a few years ago. Where does the idea that I am setting the price now come from, besides Biden's cronies.  But maybe I'm wrong. How am I controlling the oil price?

....nobody is saying it's "you"

 

That's an incredibly myopic and very narrow view of things.

[Warhippy]

8 hours ago, ronthecivil said:

I put like a full position into Good Naturered Products so I expect long the good returns. The risks of flack along the way is acceptable

I have a few long hauls myself.  Recessions make millionaires and the creation of new industry via legislation (good or bad) always opens opportunities.  Looking at the nickel belt for pegmatite and lithium mining outfits now as well as rare earth

[Boudrias]

1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

....nobody is saying it's "you"

 

That's an incredibly myopic and very narrow view of things.

I think @flanny is defending the industry’s need for a return. 7 years of brutal pricing. I suspect the industry is demanding from politicians a formula by which they can continue investment without facing the, sometimes irrational, pressures of politicians and environmentalists. The role of corporations is to represent the interests of the owners who are the shareholders. If there is no future for hydrocarbons then the corporations in the industry should start liquidating and payout the owners. If there is a limited future measured over a couple of decades then adjust the investment time horizons and move forward.

[Warhippy]

12 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I think @flanny is defending the industry’s need for a return. 7 years of brutal pricing. I suspect the industry is demanding from politicians a formula by which they can continue investment without facing the, sometimes irrational, pressures of politicians and environmentalists. The role of corporations is to represent the interests of the owners who are the shareholders. If there is no future for hydrocarbons then the corporations in the industry should start liquidating and payout the owners. If there is a limited future measured over a couple of decades then adjust the investment time horizons and move forward.

The "industry" does not need a return it WANTS a return.  The current prices of fuel/ptrol are so entirely out of whack with what the market indicates is logical that they rightly deserve the heat they are getting.  EVERYONE has suffered over two years and we see only a few truly select industries putting the screws to consumers in a way to claw back that lost profit.

 

Oil and gas as the end all be all for transportation is certainly entering its sunset phase but will still be around for decades or hundreds of years more as oil development is NOT just transportation.  But this wildly out of touch run up of prices is without question bordering on profiteering.

[Elias Pettersson]

Watching the Jerome Powell testimony...

 

Fed Chair Powell admits Ukraine is Not the Primary Driver of Inflation...

 

Hagerty: "In January of 2021 inflation was at 1.4%.  By December of 2021 it had risen to 7%, a 5 fold increase.  Since the war in Ukraine began in late February, the rate of inflation has risen incrementally another 1.6% to a current level of 8.6%.  Given how inflation has escalated over the past 18 months would you say that the war in Ukraine is the primary driver of inflation in America?"

 

Powell: "No, inflation was high before certainly before the war in Ukraine broke out".

[Elias Pettersson]

Canadian Inflation (May 2022) - June 22, 2022

 

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 7.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May, up from 6.8 per cent last month. This was the fastest growth rate since January 1983. According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 9.7 per cent year-over-year, gasoline up 48 per cent, and shelter costs up 7.4 per cent. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 6.3 per cent year over year in May. Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 1.1 per cent, the fastest pace since the introduction of the series in 1992. In BC, consumer prices rose 8.1 per cent year-over-year. Average hourly wages grew 3.9 per cent year-over-year in May, indicating a decline in purchasing power. 

A steep trajectory for the overnight rate implies that the 5-year fixed mortgage rate could reach the 5 per cent level for the first time since 2009 while variable mortgage rates may rise to as high as 4.5 per cent. With the stress test for both insured and uninsured borrowers, prospective homebuyers are currently being qualified at a rate of 6.49 per cent with a strong possibility of qualifying at 7 per cent soon, a rate that has not been a reality in the Canadian mortgage market since the early 2000s.

Given how aggressive markets expect the Bank of Canada to be, any good news on inflation, or any significant deterioration in the Canadian economy, could see a significant reversal in the most recent jump in Canadian bond yields. However, the baseline case for now is a Bank of Canada that is single-minded in its pursuit of lower inflation.

 

[Warhippy]

20 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Canadian Inflation (May 2022) - June 22, 2022

 

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 7.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May, up from 6.8 per cent last month. This was the fastest growth rate since January 1983. According to Statistics Canada, price rises were broad-based, with groceries up 9.7 per cent year-over-year, gasoline up 48 per cent, and shelter costs up 7.4 per cent. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 6.3 per cent year over year in May. Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 1.1 per cent, the fastest pace since the introduction of the series in 1992. In BC, consumer prices rose 8.1 per cent year-over-year. Average hourly wages grew 3.9 per cent year-over-year in May, indicating a decline in purchasing power. 

A steep trajectory for the overnight rate implies that the 5-year fixed mortgage rate could reach the 5 per cent level for the first time since 2009 while variable mortgage rates may rise to as high as 4.5 per cent. With the stress test for both insured and uninsured borrowers, prospective homebuyers are currently being qualified at a rate of 6.49 per cent with a strong possibility of qualifying at 7 per cent soon, a rate that has not been a reality in the Canadian mortgage market since the early 2000s.

Given how aggressive markets expect the Bank of Canada to be, any good news on inflation, or any significant deterioration in the Canadian economy, could see a significant reversal in the most recent jump in Canadian bond yields. However, the baseline case for now is a Bank of Canada that is single-minded in its pursuit of lower inflation.

 

Save them pennies

[Wilbur]

40 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Watching the Jerome Powell testimony...

 

Fed Chair Powell admits Ukraine is Not the Primary Driver of Inflation...

 

Hagerty: "In January of 2021 inflation was at 1.4%.  By December of 2021 it had risen to 7%, a 5 fold increase.  Since the war in Ukraine began in late February, the rate of inflation has risen incrementally another 1.6% to a current level of 8.6%.  Given how inflation has escalated over the past 18 months would you say that the war in Ukraine is the primary driver of inflation in America?"

 

Powell: "No, inflation was high before certainly before the war in Ukraine broke out".

I was listening to a podcast (probably about 6 weeks ago) and they made a very good point; Central Banks around the world have been printing money for the better part of 2 decades but, for the most part, that money went to regular banks, hedge funds, etc and they spend money on stocks, realestate, luxury items etc and we saw price increases in those areas.  When the pandemic hit, the money being printed started going to the average joe, and the average joe buys gas and groceries.

[nuckin_futz]

26 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I was listening to a podcast (probably about 6 weeks ago) and they made a very good point; Central Banks around the world have been printing money for the better part of 2 decades but, for the most part, that money went to regular banks, hedge funds, etc and they spend money on stocks, realestate, luxury items etc and we saw price increases in those areas.  When the pandemic hit, the money being printed started going to the average joe, and the average joe buys gas and groceries.

This is precisely why the money printing (or expansion of monetary supply) did not result in inflation from 2009-2221. In fact the Central Banks could not even hit their targets of 2%/year inflation.