[Proposal] A 3-way Trade (4 Birds with 1 Stone)

[HKSR]

Canucks need to figure out 4 things:

1.  What to do with Miller

2.  How to recoup a 2nd round pick this year

3.  A long-term solution for Hughes partner at RHD

4.  Clear cap space by moving a big contract

 

To PHI:

JT Miller

1st Round Pick (#15 OA - from VAN)

 

To CLB:

Tyler Myers

3rd Round Pick (from PHI)

 

To VAN:

Travis Konecny

1st Round Pick (#5 OA - from PHI)

2nd Round Pick (#37 OA - from CLB)

 

PHI out:  Travis Konecny, 1st Round Pick (#5 OA), 3rd Round Pick

PHI in:  JT Miller, 1st Round Pick (#15 OA)

 

CLB out:  2nd Round Pick (#37 OA)

CLB in:  Tyler Myers, 3rd Round Pick (from PHI)

 

VAN out:  JT Miller, 1st Round Pick (#15 OA), Tyler Myers

VAN in:  Travis Konecny, 1st Round Pick (#5 OA), 2nd Round Pick (#37 OA)

 

Philly does this because they are under immense pressure to compete now.  JT Miller helps out immediately.  The cost is Konecny, a 3rd round pick, and moving down in the draft. 

CLB does this because they need a big RHD to replace the loss of Seth Jones.  They also gain a 3rd round pick from PHI, but give up a 2nd round pick.

VAN does this to dump cap in Myers, move up in the draft, and also find a solution for JT Miller.

 

Canucks select:

#5OA - Nemec or Jiricek

#37OA - Miroshnichenko/Pickering/Beck/etc

[NHL'er]

Konecy is smallish like Garland. Should we aim taller? 

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, NHL'er said:

Konecy is smallish like Garland. Should we aim taller? 

Meh, acquiring Konecny probably makes Hoglander expendable.

[mll]

Seravalli thinks Myers could be moved with retention (suggests 1M) but the return won't be great.  He's not sure if it makes sense because the low return + it won't fix the right side.  

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by mll

[HKSR]

16 minutes ago, mll said:

Seravalli thinks Myers could be moved with retention (suggests 1M) but the return won't be great.  He's not sure if it makes sense because the low return + it won't fix the right side.  

 

 

Yeah I don't think Myers is a bad Top 4 RHD per se... I just think the makeup of our d-core doesn't work with OEL and Myers on the 2nd pair.  The only thing I can think of is to run it like this:

 

Hughes-Schenn

OEL-Top 4 RHD (defensive defenceman -- Lyubushkin?)

Dermott-Myers

 

We can't have OEL babysitting Myers.  We need him to generate offence.

[higgyfan]

It's hard to tell what the Flyers plans are going forward. They should be looking at a rebuild, but they may also be an

aging team that just wants to keep making the playoffs.  They do have some good young players coming along, but

Farabee is the only one that is ready to step into a top roll.

 

I like the trade as the return for Miller would likely fetch a top RD in the draft.  Of course, it can be risky counting on a

draft pick, but the 2 available sure look like the real deal.

 

If the management is wanting a more physically aggressive player, maybe Scott Laughton would be a better choice than

Konacny.  Scott has a great cap and would certainly fill the #3C spot, while adding depth for the top6 (injury), play the PK

and add the sandpaper.

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

It's hard to tell what the Flyers plans are going forward. They should be looking at a rebuild, but they may also be an

aging team that just wants to keep making the playoffs.  They do have some good young players coming along, but

Farabee is the only one that is ready to step into a top roll.

 

I like the trade as the return for Miller would likely fetch a top RD in the draft.  Of course, it can be risky counting on a

draft pick, but the 2 available sure look like the real deal.

 

If the management is wanting a more physically aggressive player, maybe Scott Laughton would be a better choice than

Konacny.  Scott has a great cap and would certainly fill the #3C spot, while adding depth for the top6 (injury), play the PK

and add the sandpaper.

I like Laughton too... just figured Philly would want to keep him over Konecny.

[Vinny in Vancouver]

The few times I visited the Flyers reddit this season, they were pretty down on Konecny and wanted him traded. They thought he was overpaid, not putting enough effort, not a top line player.

 

[HKSR]

13 minutes ago, Vinny in Vancouver said:

The few times I visited the Flyers reddit this season, they were pretty down on Konecny and wanted him traded. They thought he was overpaid, not putting enough effort, not a top line player.

 

He's a 2nd line guy IMO

[eeeeergh]

3 hours ago, HKSR said:

Canucks need to figure out 4 things:

1.  What to do with Miller

2.  How to recoup a 2nd round pick this year

3.  A long-term solution for Hughes partner at RHD

4.  Clear cap space by moving a big contract

 

To PHI:

JT Miller

1st Round Pick (#15 OA - from VAN)

 

To CLB:

Tyler Myers

3rd Round Pick (from PHI)

 

To VAN:

Travis Konecny

1st Round Pick (#5 OA - from PHI)

2nd Round Pick (#37 OA - from CLB)

 

PHI out:  Travis Konecny, 1st Round Pick (#5 OA), 3rd Round Pick

PHI in:  JT Miller, 1st Round Pick (#15 OA)

 

CLB out:  2nd Round Pick (#37 OA)

CLB in:  Tyler Myers, 3rd Round Pick (from PHI)

 

VAN out:  JT Miller, 1st Round Pick (#15 OA), Tyler Myers

VAN in:  Travis Konecny, 1st Round Pick (#5 OA), 2nd Round Pick (#37 OA)

 

Philly does this because they are under immense pressure to compete now.  JT Miller helps out immediately.  The cost is Konecny, a 3rd round pick, and moving down in the draft. 

CLB does this because they need a big RHD to replace the loss of Seth Jones.  They also gain a 3rd round pick from PHI, but give up a 2nd round pick.

VAN does this to dump cap in Myers, move up in the draft, and also find a solution for JT Miller.

 

Canucks select:

#5OA - Nemec or Jiricek

#37OA - Miroshnichenko/Pickering/Beck/etc

Honestly think we're getting kind of underpaid here for JT. 
We're essentially using JT to move up 10 spots in the draft.

JT should get a return a little bit less than what Buf got for Eichel (yes I know Eichel is younger, etc. but he was also coming off a risky surgery and is paid 10m vs JT getting 5 for next season). Ideally, JT goes to a contender, who can really benefit from the 5m season. 

The return for JT should be: 1 okayish roster player (top-9 or maybe a #4 defenseman) + 2 AAA prospects imo. 

[HKSR]

13 minutes ago, eeeeergh said:

Honestly think we're getting kind of underpaid here for JT. 
We're essentially using JT to move up 10 spots in the draft.

JT should get a return a little bit less than what Buf got for Eichel (yes I know Eichel is younger, etc. but he was also coming off a risky surgery and is paid 10m vs JT getting 5 for next season). Ideally, JT goes to a contender, who can really benefit from the 5m season. 

The return for JT should be: 1 okayish roster player (top-9 or maybe a #4 defenseman) + 2 AAA prospects imo. 

Moving up 10ish spots from 15 to 5 would cost a LOT.  If we're talking straight draft picks, it'd probably be our 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd to move up those 10 spots.  If not more.  Think about if the Canucks had 5th OA.  What would it take for you to say yes to moving down 10 spots to #15?

 

We're not just doing #5OA for #15OA + Miller though.

 

We're getting a 2nd round pick back along with a top 6 winger in Konecny, as well as dumping cap in Myers.  I think it's not that far off.  There's a lot of value there.

 

[eeeeergh]

3 hours ago, HKSR said:

Moving up 10ish spots from 15 to 5 would cost a LOT.  If we're talking straight draft picks, it'd probably be our 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd to move up those 10 spots.  If not more.  Think about if the Canucks had 5th OA.  What would it take for you to say yes to moving down 10 spots to #15?

 

We're not just doing #5OA for #15OA + Miller though.

 

We're getting a 2nd round pick back along with a top 6 winger in Konecny, as well as dumping cap in Myers.  I think it's not that far off.  There's a lot of value there.

 

I re-read everything, and you're right, the value is pretty close. The only place I think where we kinda disagree is Myers value - I don't see him as a cap dump. I think someone like Dallas would be happy to take him as a puck moving top-4 defenseman to replace Klingberg for a couple years, and give us a 3rd. 

I just really dont like Konecny. For being on the top line, and getting pp1 time, his production sucks. Especially considering his 5.5m cap hit. I shudder to think how bad his numbers would be if he wasnt getting pp1 time. I feel like we'd be better off rolling the dice on Rakell or Rust or even Domi in UFA if we need a potential top-6 player. 

I like the idea of moving up, but I also think NJ would be a better trade partner for us. Since we're taking a step back next year if we trade Miller, we might as well take on a bad contract for 1 year from them too, and really juice up the return. 

To NJ:
Miller

To Van:
NJ 2022 1st (worth 2x mid-round 1st rounders imo)
NJ 2022 2nd (basically a late 1st)
Tatar

Then we can pick at #2, #15, #34 and really restock the cupboards.
Slafkovsky, Mintyukov, and fingers crossed, Miroschienko if he falls to our high 2nd from NJ. 
 

[qwijibo]

3 hours ago, eeeeergh said:

I re-read everything, and you're right, the value is pretty close. The only place I think where we kinda disagree is Myers value - I don't see him as a cap dump. I think someone like Dallas would be happy to take him as a puck moving top-4 defenseman to replace Klingberg for a couple years, and give us a 3rd. 

I just really dont like Konecny. For being on the top line, and getting pp1 time, his production sucks. Especially considering his 5.5m cap hit. I shudder to think how bad his numbers would be if he wasnt getting pp1 time. I feel like we'd be better off rolling the dice on Rakell or Rust or even Domi in UFA if we need a potential top-6 player. 

I like the idea of moving up, but I also think NJ would be a better trade partner for us. Since we're taking a step back next year if we trade Miller, we might as well take on a bad contract for 1 year from them too, and really juice up the return. 

To NJ:
Miller

To Van:
NJ 2022 1st (worth 2x mid-round 1st rounders imo)
NJ 2022 2nd (basically a late 1st)
Tatar

Then we can pick at #2, #15, #34 and really restock the cupboards.
Slafkovsky, Mintyukov, and fingers crossed, Miroschienko if he falls to our high 2nd from NJ. 
 

Two things.
 

NJ’s second round pick will be 37th oa. Not 34 (the lottery results only apply to the first round)

 

Id be absolutely shocked if NJ was willing to give up the 2nd oa pick for a 29 year old pending UFA.  Let alone adding a high 2nd to it. 

[Alflives]

3 hours ago, eeeeergh said:

I re-read everything, and you're right, the value is pretty close. The only place I think where we kinda disagree is Myers value - I don't see him as a cap dump. I think someone like Dallas would be happy to take him as a puck moving top-4 defenseman to replace Klingberg for a couple years, and give us a 3rd. 

I just really dont like Konecny. For being on the top line, and getting pp1 time, his production sucks. Especially considering his 5.5m cap hit. I shudder to think how bad his numbers would be if he wasnt getting pp1 time. I feel like we'd be better off rolling the dice on Rakell or Rust or even Domi in UFA if we need a potential top-6 player. 

I like the idea of moving up, but I also think NJ would be a better trade partner for us. Since we're taking a step back next year if we trade Miller, we might as well take on a bad contract for 1 year from them too, and really juice up the return. 

To NJ:
Miller

To Van:
NJ 2022 1st (worth 2x mid-round 1st rounders imo)
NJ 2022 2nd (basically a late 1st)
Tatar

Then we can pick at #2, #15, #34 and really restock the cupboards.
Slafkovsky, Mintyukov, and fingers crossed, Miroschienko if he falls to our high 2nd from NJ. 
 

 Very fair trade.  I’d like to get a young D for Miller.

Is there a Sergachev out there we could steal from a stupid team, like Tampa stole him from Montreal?  That’s the kind of deal we need. 

Steal a Sergachev like TBay stole from Montreal.  

[eeeeergh]

1 hour ago, qwijibo said:

Two things.
 

NJ’s second round pick will be 37th oa. Not 34 (the lottery results only apply to the first round)

 

Id be absolutely shocked if NJ was willing to give up the 2nd oa pick for a 29 year old pending UFA.  Let alone adding a high 2nd to it. 

They'd be giving up the 2nd oa pick for the 9th leading scorer in the league, who on many nights singlehandedly carried his team to victory, who can play center and win the majority of faceoffs taken OR play on the wing. 

They'd be giving up the 2nd oa pick for a gamebreaking superstar. 

They said they'd be willing to trade the 2nd oa for help "right now". Its hard to imagine being able to get better immediate help than JT Miller. 

[qwijibo]

14 minutes ago, eeeeergh said:

They'd be giving up the 2nd oa pick for the 9th leading scorer in the league, who on many nights singlehandedly carried his team to victory, who can play center and win the majority of faceoffs taken OR play on the wing. 

They'd be giving up the 2nd oa pick for a gamebreaking superstar. 

They said they'd be willing to trade the 2nd oa for help "right now". Its hard to imagine being able to get better immediate help than JT Miller. 

There’s a lot of qualifiers here. 
yes. Miller has a great season. But can he repeat it? How much of it was due to his line mates? 

tge fact that he’s only signed for one year plays in to a large degree as well. Do NJ believe they can re-sign him? And if they can does he fit into their cap structure.  While we’re at it. Does a 29 year old got into their long term plans at all (given their very young core)

 

Also. They never said they’d be willing to move the 2nd oa for a difference maker.  The report was they’d consider moving their pick for a difference maker.  That was BEFORE they moved up to 2nd overall. I haven’t seen a single report that’s come out since the lottery win suggesting they’re still open to moving that pick. Let alone adding a very high 2nd to it. 
 

Teams don’t move top 3 picks in the salary cap era. And they certainly don’t do it for a short term rental when they’re no where near being a cup contender. 

[eeeeergh]

35 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

There’s a lot of qualifiers here. 
yes. Miller has a great season. But can he repeat it? How much of it was due to his line mates? 

tge fact that he’s only signed for one year plays in to a large degree as well. Do NJ believe they can re-sign him? And if they can does he fit into their cap structure.  While we’re at it. Does a 29 year old got into their long term plans at all (given their very young core)

 

Also. They never said they’d be willing to move the 2nd oa for a difference maker.  The report was they’d consider moving their pick for a difference maker.  That was BEFORE they moved up to 2nd overall. I haven’t seen a single report that’s come out since the lottery win suggesting they’re still open to moving that pick. Let alone adding a very high 2nd to it. 
 

Teams don’t move top 3 picks in the salary cap era. And they certainly don’t do it for a short term rental when they’re no where near being a cup contender. 

I think any teams looking at the Canucks would see it was Miller driving results for his linemates, rather than the other way around. He produced like an animal, regardless of whether he was with Petey or Chiasson.

NJ has plenty of room to add a 8-9m/year player. They finished with 7.5m in cap space, plus they've got PK Subban's 9m/year falling off, plus we'd be taking Tatar's 4.5m/year. 

Thats true - they said they'd be willing to move the pick, and that was prior to the lottery. 

I don't think its a question of whether my proposal is "fair value". It is - I see the Buffalo-Vegas trade as very comparable, as Vegas had to consider the same question you asked - would Eichel be able to repeat? But it was for a different reason - because of his injury. In fact, that trade carried more risk for Vegas, because if Eichel's performance declined, Vegas would be stuck with a 10m albatross until 2026. 

NJ getting 1 year to try out Miller at a discounted cap hit is a good thing for them, not a bad thing. 

Vegas paid 3x 1st round equivalent assets plus a conditional 2nd (that would have been a 1st if Vegas had finished in the top-10 as everyone expected), for injured 10m Eichel and a 3rd. 

We're asking for the equivalent of 2x 1st round assets (at least how I see the 2nd OA pick) and a 2nd, in exchange for Miller, and we take on a cap dump from NJ. 

Seems fair imo.

Edited May 18, 2022 by eeeeergh

[eeeeergh]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

 Very fair trade.  I’d like to get a young D for Miller.

Is there a Sergachev out there we could steal from a stupid team, like Tampa stole him from Montreal?  That’s the kind of deal we need. 

Steal a Sergachev like TBay stole from Montreal.  

Maybe Ottawa is dumb enough to trade us Jake Sanderson? They were dumb enough to do the Hamonic trade sooo....

[qwijibo]

A top 

4 minutes ago, eeeeergh said:

I think any teams looking at the Canucks would see it was Miller driving results for his linemates, rather than the other way around. He produced like an animal, regardless of whether he was with Petey or Chiasson.

NJ has plenty of room to add a 8-9m/year player. They finished with 7.5m in cap space, plus they've got PK Subban's 9m/year falling off, plus we'd be taking Tatar's 4.5m/year. 

Thats true - they said they'd be willing to move the pick, and that was prior to the lottery. 

I don't think its a question of whether my proposal is "fair value". It is - I see the Buffalo-Vegas trade as very comparable, as Vegas had to consider the same question you asked - would Eichel be able to repeat? But it was for a different reason - because of his injury. In fact, that trade carried more risk for Vegas, because if Eichel's performance declined, Vegas would be stuck with a 10m albatross until 2026. 

NJ getting 1 year to try out Miller at a discounted cap hit is a good thing for them, not a bad thing. 

Vegas paid 3x 1st round equivalent assets plus a conditional 2nd (that would have been a 1st if Vegas had finished in the top-10 as everyone expected), for injured 10m Eichel and a 3rd. 

We're asking for the equivalent of 2x 1st round assets (at least how I see the 2nd OA pick) and a 2nd, in exchange for Miller, and we take on a cap dump from NJ. 

Seems fair imo.

a top 2 pick is in a category on its own. It’s not equivalent to 2 mid round 1sts.  Also. As far as your Eichel comparison goes. It’s apples to oranges. Eichel is 4 years younger and was signed for 4+ years at the time of the trade.  He’s been an elite producer all his career. Hovering around a ppg pretty much every drain. Vegas was able to see his medical records and felt comfortable with the treatment.

 

His value was far greater than a 29 year old who’s had 2 seasons in his career where he was a ppg or better. The other seasons were largely unremarkable. They did t give up anywhere near a top 2 pick. So your “equivalent value isn’t really equivalent. 

look, if you want to go into the offseason expecting that kind of return for Miller. Have at it. But I suspect you’ll be angry with the actual return if those are your expectations 

 

 

[eeeeergh]

1 minute ago, qwijibo said:

A top 

a top 2 pick is in a category on its own. It’s not equivalent to 2 mid round 1sts.  Also. As far as your Eichel comparison goes. It’s apples to oranges. Eichel is 4 years younger and was signed for 4+ years at the time of the trade.  He’s been an elite producer all his career. Hovering around a ppg pretty much every drain. Vegas was able to see his medical records and felt comfortable with the treatment.

 

His value was far greater than a 29 year old who’s had 2 seasons in his career where he was a ppg or better. The other seasons were largely unremarkable. They did t give up anywhere near a top 2 pick. So your “equivalent value isn’t really equivalent. 

look, if you want to go into the offseason expecting that kind of return for Miller. Have at it. But I suspect you’ll be angry with the actual return if those are your expectations 

 

 

What would you say the value of a top-2 pick is? There isn't a lot of historical precedent to draw from, so I understand we probably have different views on it. The best comparable I can find was the Canucks trading McCabe (top-4 defenseman) plus a mid 1st rounder (11th) for the 4th overall. 
Again, I don't think my valuation is that far off, but I suppose it really does come down to how valuable teams feel Miller is. 

I also don't see the Eichel situation the same way you do - his surgery was to his neck, and it had never been performed to repair a herniated disc on an NHL player. There's a reason why Buffalo's doctors weren't comfortable with it. If it was a sure thing that he'd be fine and return to form, Buffalo would have had no issue letting him have the surgery. Vegas did take on a massive risk, along with that 10m/year deal, and had to give up what was essentially 4x 1st round assets. 

I'm not arguing JT Miller = Eichel, or that they should get the same return. I'm saying both their situations carry some risk, and my proposal is basically asking for half the return Eichel got, which I think accounts for the variables you mentioned (is this a one off for JT Miller, or is he actually hitting his prime, plus he's older). 

If NJ isn't willing to offer that, somebody else will be willing to part with a mid round 1st + a top prospect, and some spare change, for Miller, which I'd be equally happy with.