Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim

[Ballisticsports.]

On 3/6/2023 at 6:11 PM, Baggins said:

There's currently 12 points between us and being out of the top ten picks. I doubt we fall out of the top 10 picks unless teams behind us get lucky in the lottery to move up. If we play .500 and finish with 75 pts Calgary needs to lose 15 of their remaing 19 games to drop below us or Washington lose 14 of their remaining 18. So even playing a little over .500 leaves it unlikely to drop out of the top 10 picks. I'd like to be in the top ten, but I also really like seeing the team win. I guess I fall into the "let the chips fall where they may" category. 

 

The good news is the odds are against the worst team actually getting the 1st overall. Yet the worst team actually did get 1st overall in the last two drafts. What are the odds the odds will be beaten three years in a row? Possible of course, but I see it as good sign for the teams behind the worst team this year. 

With remaining games against weaker teams, i can see us getting over 60% of wins and also against divisional teams hurts more for the better draft position

[Provost]

On 3/6/2023 at 2:06 PM, DrJockitch said:

If we had held off on Hronek deal and moved Miller for 2 firsts and cap s-ace we would be looking good into off-season. 
4 first rounders, 2 second rounders and space to work with. That is how you retool. Those assets would give you so many more options than being forced into a cap clearing deal that will cost young assets and being up against a hard deadline to trade Miller. 
Teams know they have us over a barrel going into off-season but at least we got an asset that would likely have been available in the off-season to help save us from improving lottery odds. 
Even for their stated goals of a quick retool this would have been the best position to be in not what we chose to do. 

Wait until you see how cheap some players will go for in the offseason that we won’t have the cap room to fit.

 

Lots of teams blew their brains out at the deadline with adds and almost of them aren’t going to win a Cup.  Lots of buyers remorse and solid players looking for homes.

 

We could retool AND have kept the picks.

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Provost

[DrJockitch]

33 minutes ago, Provost said:

Wait until you see how cheap some players will go for in the offseason that we won’t have the cap room to fit.

 

Lots of teams blew their brains out at the deadline with adds and almost of them aren’t going to win a Cup.  Lots of buyers remorse and solid players looking for homes.

 

We could retool AND have kept the picks.

 

Preach brother Provost!

That is exactly what I have been arguing.
Cap space and a bundle of pics going into a buyers market.

That is how you squeeze good players out of cap strapped good teams.  
In that situation you can fix more than one problem. 

[Baggins]

1 hour ago, Provost said:

Wait until you see how cheap some players will go for in the offseason that we won’t have the cap room to fit.

 

Lots of teams blew their brains out at the deadline with adds and almost of them aren’t going to win a Cup.  Lots of buyers remorse and solid players looking for homes.

 

We could retool AND have kept the picks.

 

That happens every year and every year teams will overpay the top ufa's come July. The only real exception to that rule is those rare ufa's that really want to play for a specific team and are willing to leave money on the table to get that done. Myers, despite not living up to his contract, is actually an example. He took less than what analysts expected, and more surprisingly, a shorter term than expected. Because he really wanted to be here. I don't buy the plethora of good ufa's signing cheap this summer and any good ufa RHD will see multiple money trucks backing up to his door to choose from.

[wallstreetamigo]

9 hours ago, Baggins said:

That happens every year and every year teams will overpay the top ufa's come July. The only real exception to that rule is those rare ufa's that really want to play for a specific team and are willing to leave money on the table to get that done. Myers, despite not living up to his contract, is actually an example. He took less than what analysts expected, and more surprisingly, a shorter term than expected. Because he really wanted to be here. I don't buy the plethora of good ufa's signing cheap this summer and any good ufa RHD will see multiple money trucks backing up to his door to choose from.

So his main argument that it’s an opportunity to have a bunch of picks and a bunch of cap space to take advantage of cap strapped teams is somehow invalid? 
 

Teams will go crazy for the next shiny UFA object they always do. Teams that have cap space can get good players (or bad contracts plus high picks) those other GM’s have to jettison for peanuts to make room for their shiny new toy. 
 

The Canucks should have been doing this anytime during the last 8 years or so instead of giving out bloated contracts to UFA’s or trading picks for over the hill declining players.

 

Should have been able to get OEL for nothing with that contract and his declining play and considering he would only go to Boston or Vancouver. No chance Boston was very interested. 
 

Realistically, operating at the cap while being a bottom feeder for nearly a decade and trading away picks for sub par players is just not even arguable as a viable strategy or a winning one. History shows that in no uncertain terms. Yet here we are continuing to think it is. 

[Baggins]

2 minutes ago, wallstreetamigo said:

So his main argument that it’s an opportunity to have a bunch of picks and a bunch of cap space to take advantage of cap strapped teams is somehow invalid? 
 

Teams will go crazy for the next shiny UFA object they always do. Teams that have cap space can get good players (or bad contracts plus high picks) those other GM’s have to jettison for peanuts to make room for their shiny new toy. 
 

The Canucks should have been doing this anytime during the last 8 years or so instead of giving out bloated contracts to UFA’s or trading picks for over the hill declining players.

 

Should have been able to get OEL for nothing with that contract and his declining play and considering he would only go to Boston or Vancouver. No chance Boston was very interested. 
 

Realistically, operating at the cap while being a bottom feeder for nearly a decade and trading away picks for sub par players is just not even arguable as a viable strategy or a winning one. History shows that in no uncertain terms. Yet here we are continuing to think it is. 

No thanks to other teams trash. We're not Arizona, we're actually building around our young talent. Anything that improves the team around Petey, Hughes, Miller, Demko etc, I'm all for. I'm a firm believer in icing the best team you can every year.

[wallstreetamigo]

Just now, Baggins said:

No thanks to other teams trash. We're not Arizona, we're actually building around our young talent. Anything that improves the team around Petey, Hughes, Miller, Demko etc, I'm all for. I'm a firm believer in icing the best team you can every year.

Every year teams get very good players for peanuts because they have the cap space to take them on without giving up much. That’s how the Canucks should be building. To get QUALITY players being dumped for garbage.

 

The bonus is not only do you get comparable or better players than the garbage typically signed or traded for by the Canucks, you also get to fill the prospect pool by keeping your picks and adding more. Then you have more assets to trade to continue to fill out the team. 

[Provost]

10 hours ago, Baggins said:

That happens every year and every year teams will overpay the top ufa's come July. The only real exception to that rule is those rare ufa's that really want to play for a specific team and are willing to leave money on the table to get that done. Myers, despite not living up to his contract, is actually an example. He took less than what analysts expected, and more surprisingly, a shorter term than expected. Because he really wanted to be here. I don't buy the plethora of good ufa's signing cheap this summer and any good ufa RHD will see multiple money trucks backing up to his door to choose from.

No it doesn't.  It is unique to the flat cap era that has been in place for the last couple years during Covid.

There simply isn't enough money in the entire system under the cap to pay all the players becoming UFAs and the RFAs who need to be qualified.  The top UFAs will absorb most of the money, leaving a bunch needing to find a home and no money for "middle class" type contracts.  More importantly is how RFAs will be handled.  There will be good RFAs that won't be qualified because there is no money for their raises, and more importantly... no money to be sitting locked up waiting for an arbitration award that the team isn't allowed to walk away from.

We have a perfect example in Bear.  If we choose to qualify him, he can take the team to arbitration.  He has a decent case of asking for $3.5 million based on his minutes played and comparables.  The Canucks can't afford that eventuality, and if he gets something along that number they aren't allowed to walk away from the award.  Even the threat of it means it is a hard decision to qualify him if he isn't signed before that has to happen.  We can't make any other moves in the offseason to pick up players or make trades with money coming back when we have to reserve that amount of cap for a possible bad arbitration outcome.

Multiply that scenario playing out on every team in the league with multiple players.  Good young players will shake loose not being qualified, or be available for basically free before the QO date just to mitigate that risk.  A team with cap space and opportunity (by virtue of having a terrible roster) like ours would be quite attractive to an unqualified RFA looking to rehab their value before money starts freeing up in a year or two as the cap goes up.

[dougieL]

7 minutes ago, Baggins said:

No thanks to other teams trash. We're not Arizona, we're actually building around our young talent. Anything that improves the team around Petey, Hughes, Miller, Demko etc, I'm all for. I'm a firm believer in icing the best team you can every year.

That kind of strategy typically leaves the team out of the top 5 draft spots (barring a lottery win). If that's the case, how do you envision the team acquiring really high end players?

[dougieL]

15 minutes ago, Baggins said:

No thanks to other teams trash. We're not Arizona, we're actually building around our young talent. Anything that improves the team around Petey, Hughes, Miller, Demko etc, I'm all for. I'm a firm believer in icing the best team you can every year.

This is just an ignorant belittling of his opinion. So many useful players have shaken loose for any number of reasons (cap crunch included) that I don't even need to list them out.

[Baggins]

 

4 hours ago, Provost said:

No it doesn't.  It is unique to the flat cap era that has been in place for the last couple years during Covid.

There simply isn't enough money in the entire system under the cap to pay all the players becoming UFAs and the RFAs who need to be qualified.  The top UFAs will absorb most of the money, leaving a bunch needing to find a home and no money for "middle class" type contracts.  More importantly is how RFAs will be handled.  There will be good RFAs that won't be qualified because there is no money for their raises, and more importantly... no money to be sitting locked up waiting for an arbitration award that the team isn't allowed to walk away from.

We have a perfect example in Bear.  If we choose to qualify him, he can take the team to arbitration.  He has a decent case of asking for $3.5 million based on his minutes played and comparables.  The Canucks can't afford that eventuality, and if he gets something along that number they aren't allowed to walk away from the award.  Even the threat of it means it is a hard decision to qualify him if he isn't signed before that has to happen.  We can't make any other moves in the offseason to pick up players or make trades with money coming back when we have to reserve that amount of cap for a possible bad arbitration outcome.

Multiply that scenario playing out on every team in the league with multiple players.  Good young players will shake loose not being qualified, or be available for basically free before the QO date just to mitigate that risk.  A team with cap space and opportunity (by virtue of having a terrible roster) like ours would be quite attractive to an unqualified RFA looking to rehab their value before money starts freeing up in a year or two as the cap goes up.

There have been some players sign for less because of the flat cap, but I wouldn't exactly call it bargains. Every team has contracts come off the books and there's still a bidding war for the good players. 

 

A team can decline the arbitration award and the player simply becomes a ufa at that point. 

 

When was the last time a good rfa wasn't qualified and allowed to walk for nothing into free agency?

[Baggins]

4 hours ago, dougieL said:

This is just an ignorant belittling of his opinion. So many useful players have shaken loose for any number of reasons (cap crunch included) that I don't even need to list them out.

[dougieL]

2 hours ago, Baggins said:

[wallstreetamigo]

2 hours ago, Baggins said:

 

There have been some players sign for less because of the flat cap, but I wouldn't exactly call it bargains. Every team has contracts come off the books and there's still a bidding war for the good players. 

 

A team can decline the arbitration award and the player simply becomes a ufa at that point. 

 

When was the last time a good rfa wasn't qualified and allowed to walk for nothing into free agency?

Last offseason there were several.

[MaxVerstappen33]

I think at this point , ownership wants wins now because it thinks it will help sell seats for the next 20 games. Which could be true to a point I guess. But it is still terrible long term thinking.

 

The building probably isn't selling tickets as much because of the economy as anything. Right now we have the worst of all worlds. High house prices , high interest rates and high inflation. It is amazing that attendance held as long as it did.  

[Junkyard Dog]

I could see us falling out of the top 10 with how easier the schedule is and given the way we’re playing. 
 

10th and 11th place teams, Detroit and Washington have folded their year and probably won’t win much more.  Could see a few teams hop over them. 

[RU SERIOUS]

On 3/6/2023 at 2:19 PM, DrJockitch said:

Even for the situation of madly burning assets to get into a playoff spot we would have been in a better situation. Only thing that is worse for is season ticket pushes. 

Bingo!    That is exactly why JR's "Major Surgery" plans got flushed down the toilet and turned into another annual minor rebuild - that has failed us for over a decade.     It's Aqua-Lini meddling again and forcing the Mgmt (Likely at gun point) to do something "quick" to get warm butts back in the seats to keep the cash flowing-in and the TDL just happened to coincide around STH's renewal period - when they try to sucker-in folks to lock-in & throw their money away based on false hope and empty fantasies of grandure - FOR NEXT SEASON !   

 

You have to remember that we're dealing with an owner who is born & raised in the Leaky Condo Era and Business and that is the way his mind works.  It's all bottom line Mgmt style from the 1980's  - NOT - any sign of forward thinking or emphasis on customer satisfaction or quality product.

[Baggins]

4 hours ago, wallstreetamigo said:

Last offseason there were several.

Names...

[Eddie]

6 hours ago, RU SERIOUS said:

Bingo!    That is exactly why JR's "Major Surgery" plans got flushed down the toilet and turned into another annual minor rebuild - that has failed us for over a decade.     It's Aqua-Lini meddling again and forcing the Mgmt (Likely at gun point) to do something "quick" to get warm butts back in the seats to keep the cash flowing-in and the TDL just happened to coincide around STH's renewal period - when they try to sucker-in folks to lock-in & throw their money away based on false hope and empty fantasies of grandure - FOR NEXT SEASON !   

 

You have to remember that we're dealing with an owner who is born & raised in the Leaky Condo Era and Business and that is the way his mind works.  It's all bottom line Mgmt style from the 1980's  - NOT - any sign of forward thinking or emphasis on customer satisfaction or quality product.

 

Yeah pretty much this - it's clear that Aquaman doesn't care about building a winning franchise for the city, as all his decision are short-term thinking. We could have got a major piece this year from a top 5 pick that could have been a franchise 1-2 center and made us a contender for the second half of EP / QH / TD era.  However, we chose short term in sacking Bruce and bringing in RT to go on a winning spree outta the top 10 et alone top 5.

I heard a lot of Rog sales are corporate from somewhere anywhere - so as long as clients can be entertained there, what does he care about the prospects of winning a cup.  I dunno if that is true or not tho, just hear say. 

Either way I worry we will never build a contender with FA at the wheel and if we do it will last a season and then plunge us into another 15 years of hell like the Sedin era. 

 

[MaxVerstappen33]

Tocc said he won't play Demko more than 4 games in a row. Could be worse I guess. Delia every 3rd game would be better though 

Edited March 10, 2023 by MaxVerstappen33