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Are WHL prospects a waste of a pick?


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Question: Are WHL players/prospect a waste of a draft pick?

The reason I ask is this... These are the top 10 scorers in the WHL 2003-2012 (9 years of Data seemed to be enough for this little experiment.

I have bolded any player that has truly "Made it" at the NHL level. Now, not many of these guys are what you'd call stars even if they have made the league.

2003/2004

1 Tyler Redenbach Swift Current 105 2 Jeremy Williams Swift Current 101 3 Kyle Brodziak Moose Jaw 93 4 Chris St. Jacques Medicine Hat 92 4 Brad Schell Spokane 92 6 Chad Klassen Spokane 91 7 Seth Leonard Prince Albert 90 8 Eric Fehr Brandon 84 9 Adam Courchaine Vancouver 82 10 Darren Reid Medicine Hat 81

2004/2005

1 Eric Fehr Brandon 111 2 Ryan Stone Brandon 99 3 Tim Konsorada Brandon 87 3 Gilbert Brule Vancouver 87 5 Colton Yellow Horn Lethbridge 86 6 Jonathan Filewich Lethbridge 80 7 Adam Courchaine Vancouver 78 8 Stefan Meyer Medicine Hat 77 9 Nigel Dawes Kootenay 76 10 Kenndal McArdle Moose Jaw 74 10 Clarke MacArthur Medicine Hat 74

2005/2006

1 Troy Brouwer Moose Jaw 102 2 Adam Cracknell Kootenay 93 3 Ian McDonald Tri-City 92 4 Dustin Boyd Moose Jaw 90 5 Justin Keller Kelowna 88 6 Blair Jones Moose Jaw 85 7 Devin Setoguchi Saskatoon 83 8 Darren Helm Medicine Hat 79 9 John Lammers Everett 75 9 Chad Klassen 2 teams 75 9 Colton Yellow Horn Lethbridge 75 9 Ryan Russell Kootenay 75

2006/2007

1 Zach Hamill Everett 93 2 Steven DaSilva Kootenay 91 2 Zach Boychuk Lethbridge 91 4 Ryan White Calgary 89 5 Martin Hanzal Red Deer 85 5 Codey Burki Brandon 85 7 Mitch Fadden Lethbridge 84 8 Riley Holzapfel Moose Jaw 82 8 Mark Santorelli Chilliwack 82 10 Mark Derlago Brandon 81

2007/2008

1 Mark Santorelli Chilliwack 101 2 Colin Long Kelowna 100 3 Colton Yellow Horn Tri-City 97 4 Tyler Ennis Medicine Hat 91 5 Steven DaSilva Kootenay 89 5 Mitch Fadden Lethbridge 89 7 Jordan Knackstedt Moose Jaw 85 8 Dan Gendur Everett 84 9 George "Bud" Holloway Seattle 83 9 Oscar Moller Chilliwack 83

2008/2009

1 Casey Pierro-Zabotel Vancouver 115 2 Brandon Kozun Calgary 108 3 Brett Sonne Calgary 100 4 Evander Kane Vancouver 96 5 Justin Bernhardt Prince Albert 92 6 Colin Long Kelowna 91 7 Brayden Schenn Brandon 88 8 Joel Broda 2 teams 87 9 C.J. Stretch Kamloops 86 10 Tyler Ennis Medicine Hat 85

2009/2010

1 Brandon Kozun Calgary 107 2 Jordan Eberle Regina 106 3 Jordan Weal Regina 102 4 Brayden Schenn Brandon 99 4 Matt Calvert Brandon 99 6 Craig Cunningham Vancouver 97 7 Mitch Wahl Spokane 96 8 Dustin Sylvester Kootenay 93 9 Cody Eakin Swift Current 91 10 Scott Glennie Brandon 89

2010/2011

1 Linden Vey Medicine Hat 116 2 Tyler Johnson Spokane 115 3 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Red Deer 106 3 Mark Stone Brandon 106 5 Brendan Shinnimin Tri-City 96 5 Jordan Weal Regina 96 7 Ryan Johansen Portland 92 8 Brendan Gallagher Vancouver 91 8 Scott Glennie Brandon 91 10 Marek Viedensky Saskatoon 88

2011/2012 1 Brendan Shinnimin Tri-City 134 2 Mark Stone Brandon 123 3 Ty Rattie Portland 121 4 Jordan Weal Regina 116 4 Adam Hughesman Tri-City 116 6 Patrick Holland Tri-City 109 7 Emerson Etem Medicine Hat 107 8 Michael St. Croix Edmonton 105 9 Michael Ferland Brandon 96 10 Sven Baertschi Portland 94

So, in short, out of 90 players who finished in the top 10 in scoring in the entire WHL - We've got 14 players who have made the NHL.

If you look at the same time period for the OHL, There's 32 out of the 90 top scorers

Everyone still stoked about Shinkaruk?

I merely pose the question based on the facts... are WHL players a waste of a pick?

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The WHL has always been a more tough, defensive league. So if you're looking for tough two way players the WHL is great for that.

Still though, there are exceptions to everything. If there's a good player, you take him, regardless of what league he came from.

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ummmm. no, its all based on talent of the player. not what league they came from. And also I would consider Clarke MacArthur to have "made it." As well correct me if im wrong but isn't Sven Baertshi the future of the Flames, and Ryan Johanson and Matt Calvert very good prospects that just havn't been promoted up yet?

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Not sure why you would include players drafted in the last 3 years. Alot of those guys still have a good shot of being good NHL players.

If anything that list shows that the WHL has produced alot more high end talent in the last 4 years than it ever has.

Another thing to take into consideration is where those players were drafted. A player can be a top scorer in the WHL and still get drafted in the 4th or 5th round because they have obvious flaws to their game that will likely keep them from being regular NHLers.

Almost all of the guys that have been drafted in the first round in the last 4 years have made the NHL. You missed Ryan Johansen and Scott Glennie who were also first rounders and have played in the NHL. Sven Baerstchi is also going to be a solid NHLer.

This list really doesn't prove a whole lot.

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Not sure why you would include players drafted in the last 3 years. Alot of those guys still have a good shot of being good NHL players.

If anything that list shows that the WHL has produced alot more high end talent in the last 4 years than it ever has.

Another thing to take into consideration is where those players were drafted. A player can be a top scorer in the WHL and still get drafted in the 4th or 5th round because they have obvious flaws to their game that will likely keep them from being regular NHLers.

Almost all of the guys that have been drafted in the first round in the last 4 years have made the NHL. You missed Ryan Johansen and Scott Glennie who were also first rounders and have played in the NHL. Sven Baerstchi is also going to be a solid NHLer.

This list really doesn't prove a whole lot.

my point was merely to compare the exact same information from the two leagues... OHL players who finished top 10 in scoring have a 300% higher chance of making the NHL... that's a fact.

I didn't count prospects, simply because I didn't in both leagues.

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ummmm. no, its all based on talent of the player. not what league they came from. And also I would consider Clarke MacArthur to have "made it." As well correct me if im wrong but isn't Sven Baertshi the future of the Flames, and Ryan Johanson and Matt Calvert very good prospects that just havn't been promoted up yet?

I didn't count prospects that haven't made it in the NHL yet from either league... so it's same vs. same.

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It's just interesting that in a league like the WHL that is supposed to be where you get all your good 2 way prospects from... for some reason the top 10 Scorers in the league (who had to compete against all those amazing 2 way players) are a bunch of busts for the most part.

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my point was merely to compare the exact same information from the two leagues... OHL players who finished top 10 in scoring have a 300% higher chance of making the NHL... that's a fact.

I didn't count prospects, simply because I didn't in both leagues.

Well the OHL is a better league for developing NHLers. It always has been. A large part of it is due to the fact that they just have a bigger population of young players to select from as oppose to smaller towns in the West.

Kane, Schenn, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Gallagher, and Etem is a pretty impressive batch to come out of the WHL in the last 4 years. Some of these guys are the best young players in the game.

I think if you expanded the list to the 2nd and 3rd rounds you'd see that some of the best players in the game have come out of the WHL in the last 5 or 6 years. Especially D-men.

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Another thing that you seem to be implying is that a player has to be a top scorer to make the NHL. That completely eliminates most defenseman from the conversation.

If anything, the WHL has arguably been the best producer of top defenseman over the last 4 years.

L.Schenn, Meyers, Sbisa, Boychuk, Cowen, Murray, Reinhart, Rielly, Mueller, Pulock, and Jones.

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If anything, the WHL has arguably been the best producer of top defenseman over the last 4 years.

L.Schenn, Meyers, Sbisa, Boychuk, Cowen, Murray, Reinhart, Rielly, Mueller, Pulock, and Jones.

Jamie Benn, Edler, Weber, Keith, and to lesser extents (though they're not slouches by any means) Mikael Backlund, Sheldon Souray, Josh Gorges, Kyle McLaren and even Scott Hannan also came from the Kelowna Rockets alone. Also, give this list a read and let me know what you think.

http://www.whl.ca/page/prospects-central-whl-graduates-in-the-nhl

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I'm a little surprised but I would guess that the WHL produces more later picks than any other league due to it's hard nosed NHL style play, so you're not going to find those players in the top 10 in scoring. There are a lot more Ontario players in the NHL than from anywhere else so ... I would also guess that the Quebec league is probably similar to the WHL. You should also do the stats for the other 3 draft avenues to get a real idea of whether you are on to something or not. Do college and misc last.

If you look where players come from you have

OHL

WHL

QJMHL

Europe

College/University/ECHL(etc)

an even split would be 20% each, just for fun let's guess at a sample data set

OHL 35% 32 players

WHL 18% 14 players

QJHML 20% 17 players

Europe 20% 17 players

College/University/ECHL(etc) 7% 7 players.

= 87 players

These numbers aren't exact as I had to massage them a bit to but they're close enough to get an idea. A little variance either way an it's pretty close across the board.

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