CanucksJay Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Since your reading comprehension is so exceedingly weak, let me explain this with a very simple example for you so you might be able to grasp the point. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 5.7% chance of a wild card spot. On March 13, yes, merely 17 days ago, the Leafs chances of making the playoffs were 89.7%. "Amazingly (or maybe not so amazingly considering the team’s recent history of collapses), it was just over two weeks ago, after Toronto beat Los Angeles on Mar. 13, that the Leafs’ chances were at 89.7 percent." After 6 straight losses, it fell to 29.2%. That was two days ago, before the Philly game. And now it sits at 5.7%. That's what an 8 game losing streak will do for you - and that was the exceedingly simple point that you couldn't quite figure out. So what did their 89.7% chance of making the playoffs really mean? Well, not very much. Nice effort to combine some weak, out of context hindsighting with an impotent troll attempt though. So again... it seems like you don't believe in probabilities Going from 89.7 to 5.7 percent to making the playoffs is an 84% drop. Guess how that happened? Again, it comes down to probabilities. That is how UNLIKELY an 8 game losing streak is.(especially outright not even OT or SO) is. (Coupled with whatever the other teams were doing) Its kind of foolish to think that just because these things happen, probabilities are over rated. So the chances of winning 649 lotto are 1 in 14 mil but hey, someone has won it before so I guess that stat is overrated. hahaha By that logic, it means that for some reason, you think that teams have a better chance of beating probabilities when it comes down to sports. How about this, you give me better than odds on every sporting event and we bet on it all. I wonder who will come out on top most of the time? Those Vegas line makers sure are stupid... We should just listen to Old News because apparently he knows better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 So again... it seems like you don't believe in probabilities Going from 89.7 to 5.7 percent to making the playoffs is an 84% drop. Guess how that happened? Again, it comes down to probabilities. That is how UNLIKELY an 8 game losing streak is.(especially outright not even OT or SO) is. (Coupled with whatever the other teams were doing) Its kind of foolish to think that just because these things happen, probabilities are over rated. So the chances of winning 649 lotto are 1 in 14 mil but hey, someone has won it before so I guess that stat is overrated. hahaha By that logic, it means that for some reason, you think that teams have a better chance of beating probabilities when it comes down to sports. How about this, you give me better than odds on every sporting event and we bet on it all. I wonder who will come out on top most of the time? Those Vegas line makers sure are stupid... We should just listen to Old News because apparently he knows better So Detroit should have given up on catching the Leafs because of 'probabilities', right? That 84% drop - in 2 weeks - ought to give you a clearer idea of how 'solid' these odds are. No need to guess how it happpened. It's really evident how it happened, and that it in fact did happen. Thanks for re-raising the issue, actually. Some pretty dumb denial here CJ. The reality is that there are plenty of losing streaks in the NHL every single season. 3 or 4 game losing streaks exceedingly common. Longer losing streaks nowhere near as rare as you pretend. Using a 6-49 analogy, ironically, about sums up your own grasp of 'odds'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan kesler the beast Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 So Detroit should have given up on catching the Leafs because of 'probabilities', right? That 84% drop - in 2 weeks - ought to give you a clearer idea of how 'solid' these odds are. Thanks for re-raising the issue, actually. Some pretty dumb denial here CJ. The reality is that there are plenty of losing streaks in the NHL every single season. 3 or 4 game losing streaks exceedingly common. Longer losing streaks nowhere near as rare as you pretend. Using a 6-49 analogy, ironically, about sums up your own grasp of 'odds'. So minny and Dallas goes on losing streak and we go 6-0 and make the playoffs wohioooo I was worried there for a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neversummer Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 oldnews ... please stop with your defence. Time is running out, it ain't going to happen. Let it rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 So minny and Dallas goes on losing streak and we go 6-0 and make the playoffs wohioooo I was worried there for a second no. you can pretty much go ahead and give up now, like your namesake. There is a difference between a possibility of making the playoffs, and thinking/believing you are going to. giving up weeks ago, on the other hand, would have been stupid. oldnews ... please stop with your defence. Time is running out, it ain't going to happen. Let it rest. Neversummer, save your unsolicited advice, you missed the timeline/context. Necro-post. Which, ironically, even in hindsight, had an immediate counterpoint, something that happens pretty much every season in the NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
youngdad Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 So Detroit should have given up on catching the Leafs because of 'probabilities', right? That 84% drop - in 2 weeks - ought to give you a clearer idea of how 'solid' these odds are. Thanks for re-raising the issue, actually. Some pretty dumb denial here CJ. The reality is that there are plenty of losing streaks in the NHL every single season. 3 or 4 game losing streaks exceedingly common. Longer losing streaks nowhere near as rare as you pretend. Using a 6-49 analogy, ironically, about sums up your own grasp of 'odds'. Ok sure, 4 game skids are common. But we need two teams above us (teams that truly are better than us) to skid hard while we run the table. Minny might poop the bed. But not Minny AND one of Phoenix/Dallas. And sorry bud, but we ain't runnin' anything. Nope, time to start Markstrom and put as much rookie blood as we can out there. I don't agree with losing on purpose; I think that's culture cancer. Just put out the youngens and let em play their hearts out. We are playing now for some positive notes to enter the offseason and next year. Jensen and Kassian have been that these past couple of weeks. (Though if you ask me Torts will wreck Jensen and never give Kassian a chance). The fork was in us pre-Olympics. It's not like we were playing good hockey and just not getting puck luck (like we were in the fall). We have been pretty bad at the sport of hockey for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wulfgang Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 This is the Canucks forum:Save St. Louis,have not beaten one contending team since 2013.Have not won three games in a row in the last three months.27th pp in the league.28th in team shooting %.28th in goals per game.You want a cup and not a draft pick.Good luck with that.Yeah because a draft pick is what separates us from a cup... Sure...And I'm really Bill Hicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Ok sure, 4 game skids are common. But we need two teams above us (teams that truly are better than us) to skid hard while we run the table. Minny might poop the bed. But not Minny AND one of Phoenix/Dallas. And sorry bud, but we ain't runnin' anything. Nope, time to start Markstrom and put as much rookie blood as we can out there. I don't agree with losing on purpose; I think that's culture cancer. Just put out the youngens and let em play their hearts out. We are playing now for some positive notes to enter the offseason and next year. Jensen and Kassian have been that these past couple of weeks. (Though if you ask me Torts will wreck Jensen and never give Kassian a chance). The fork was in us pre-Olympics. It's not like we were playing good hockey and just not getting puck luck (like we were in the fall). We have been pretty bad at the sport of hockey for a while. No need to be sorry but. You're just a couple weeks late to the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5Fivehole0 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 And I'm really Bill Hicks. fo'real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan kesler the beast Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I'm Don Cherry. Had to come clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 So what is this thread about actually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuck nit Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Yeah because a draft pick is what separates us from a cup... Sure...And I'm really Bill Hicks.Bill,if you think the Canucks are even getting into the playoffs you can't entertain the thought of a good pick helping this team in the future.By the looks of things this team is going to need all the help it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan kesler the beast Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Guys. If we make the playoffs I'm deleting my account and never coming on this board again for the rest of my life. My promise. Quote me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van_City123 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Wouldn't it be something if the final nail in the coffin comes on Tuesday by Alain Vigneault's New York Rangers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honky Cat Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Wouldn't it be something if the final nail in the coffin comes on Tuesday by Alain Vigneault's New York Rangers. I have a vision of a guy furiously chewing his gum with a big smile on his face....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Lets all try to gather some perspective. This team won the Presidents trophy ..........and won a single playoff game. 1-0 . To add insult to injury, we draft 26th. We then win our division............and proceed to get blown off the playoff map. To add insult to injury, we have to draft 24th. Trying to gather heroics .............all to get blown out of the playoffs in 4 straight, will only serve to net us a lousy draft pick yet again. Lets not. We need to rebuild. Agreed, but no professional is going to lose on purpose. I like the way they are playing, Kassian and Booth have a nice chemistry, Matthias looks good, Jensen has shown flashes and Lack looks solid. Once ousted, bring up whatever young kids we can and let the youngsters play. That is kinda like tanking but not on purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absent Canuck Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Agreed, but no professional is going to lose on purpose. I like the way they are playing, Kassian and Booth have a nice chemistry, Matthias looks good, Jensen has shown flashes and Lack looks solid.Once ousted, bring up whatever young kids we can and let the youngsters play. That is kinda like tanking but not on purpose. Thats how its done. The players wont tank, so the GM gives the coach a bunch of kids . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenSurgeon Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 If the Canucks win every game they have left they would have 91 points. If Pheonix and Dallas play .500 for their last games they will have 91 points and both Pheonix and Dallas taking a slide is unlikely. I understand the odds for the Canucks to make the playoffs are now at .5%. If they lose tomorrow it is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswhere Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 So what is this thread about actually? math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THERETOOL Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 math math and hope ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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