Nikolaj Ehlers

[Smashian Kassian]

potentially massive reward, potential bust

excellent speed, offset with lack of size

and then people start digging and coming up with meaningless stats to justify their own view on him

and then there are some that completely ignore stats and make things up

and then those people get crucified

and then people come up with more stats to silence trolls

and then the trolls keep coming

and then the personal attacks come

and then it's not about Ehlers, but about how stupid a poster is

and that goes on, and on until we hit 40 pages

This. Its frustrating & annoying to hear the same garbage spewed in an attempt to chop down Ehlers to build up the guy they want.

Its fine to want whoever you want, I'd rather just have a discussion on each prospect, you can compare things in their games like skating or physicality or whatever, thats fine and natural, but leave this made up, incorrect, uninformed crap out of it.

[JeremyCuddles]

46 pages on a potential draft pick? really? why this pick and not another?

Most of this is the same 5-6 people either bashing or loving Ehlers. A lot of hostility and trolling to be had.

[BurgerKing]

Nathan Mackinnon had 75 points to Drouins 105. Mackinnon was in on 27 of Drouins 105 points and vice versa. So does this mean that Mackinnon really only had 50 points because Drouin carried him along? What a bust....Mackinnon shouldn't have even been drafted.

Oh and Ehlers sample size of 25 points in 17 games is a small sample size but it's not as if it's the only thing we have to work with. He scored 104 points over the entire season so reasonably without Drouin he would've had likely around 85-100 points. However, don't forget that if Drouin wasn't playing, Ehlers would get greater ice time and therefore more points.

On one side you agree with me that without Douin his points would decrease from 104 to 85-100, then you say Ehlers would get even more points because of the extra icetime he would get without Drouin....?

[BurgerKing]

yea Malkin's a 50 point player at best without crosby..

Extreme example, 2 players that are top 5 in the world in offensive talent and also have similar levels of talent.

Droiun and Ehlers don't have similar levels of talent according to most scouting reports.

Drouin is 2.35 ppg, Ehlers is 1.65 ppg, approx. 2 more points for every 3 games played. Ehlers' ppg goes down to 1.47 in the 17 games without Drouin, but to be fair I don't think its a large enough same size

[CanuckleHorse]

This guy is an inch shorter but if they were same size he could be top 10 what are your thoughts?

[CanuckleHorse]

Another of those small NA players that i really like very Patty Kane like some of these goals.

[Absent Canuck]

Nathan Mackinnon had 75 points to Drouins 105. Mackinnon was in on 27 of Drouins 105 points and vice versa. So does this mean that Mackinnon really only had 50 points because Drouin carried him along? What a bust....Mackinnon shouldn't have even been drafted.

Oh and Ehlers sample size of 25 points in 17 games is a small sample size but it's not as if it's the only thing we have to work with. He scored 104 points over the entire season so reasonably without Drouin he would've had likely around 85-100 points. However, don't forget that if Drouin wasn't playing, Ehlers would get greater ice time and therefore more points.

Here is some logic that proves that digging too far into stats pulls it in any direction you want.

When MacKinnon played with Drouin

Drouin 105 Mac Kinnon 75

Then when Mac Kinnon departed and Ehlers arrived

Drouin 108 Ehlers 104

So under the same circumstances in their draft years

Ehlers 104 Mac Kinnon 75

Therefore

Ehlers >>>>>>>>>>>> Mac Kinnon.

But on a serious note, all you are doing is arguing with a guy who simply wants to argue and will make up and spin any stats or facts or whatever he can to come up with the result he pre determined to find in the first place. You will never get the guy to admit he is mistaken. He will always spin to some new angle. You are wasting your time.

[Absent Canuck]

Another of those small NA players that i really like very Patty Kane like some of these goals.

Thanks for the highlights.

I like the guy. I expect him to go anywhere from 12 to 18th .

[S N Y P E R S 7]

I really like Milano.
I have hime ranked as being a surprise top ten pick - but I have Tuch ranked higher.

Tuch has more of the natural intangibles (like size, hands, speed, etc.)
Milano could end up being the next T.J. Oshie.

[BurgerKing]

Here is some logic that proves that digging too far into stats pulls it in any direction you want.

When MacKinnon played with Drouin

Drouin 105 Mac Kinnon 75

Then when Mac Kinnon departed and Ehlers arrived

Drouin 108 Ehlers 104

So under the same circumstances in their draft years

Ehlers 104 Mac Kinnon 75

Therefore

Ehlers >>>>>>>>>>>> Mac Kinnon.

But on a serious note, all you are doing is arguing with a guy who simply wants to argue and will make up and spin any stats or facts or whatever he can to come up with the result he pre determined to find in the first place. You will never get the guy to admit he is mistaken. He will always spin to some new angle. You are wasting your time.

MacKinnon only played 44 games, his ppg was 1.70, Ehlers had 1.65 ppg, I think you knew this too, yet you still posted the above, what's wrong with you?

Regardless, it's more than just stats, Look at multiple mock drafts from 2013, the experts had him ranked 1, 2 or 3. General consensus ehlers is lower than 6, there are a couple that have him higher. You cannot compare the two.

[Ghostsof1915]

The reality is, until he laces them up in the NHL and plays a few SEASONS, we don't really know where he's going to develop or how he's going to develop.

Folks seem to be a wee bit too emotionally invested in a guy. I'm not saying don't get excited. Maybe just don't jump too far ahead.

Give you an example. Greg Hawgood. 123 Points in 61 games for Kamloops. 5'10", 204 lbs.

And he was a DEFENSEMAN. Yet his best season in the NHL was 77 games, and 38 points.

Pavel Brendl had 134 points and 73 goals when he was drafted. And he was drafted 4th overall.

42 games and 12 points was his NHL career high.

[Absent Canuck]

I really like Milano.

I have hime ranked as being a surprise top ten pick - but I have Tuch ranked higher.

Tuch has more of the natural intangibles (like size, hands, speed, etc.)

Milano could end up being the next T.J. Oshie.

I was just thinking that. It is my belief that Tuch has a low bust probability but I like the higher upside Milano has.

[Absent Canuck]

The reality is, until he laces them up in the NHL and plays a few SEASONS, we don't really know where he's going to develop or how he's going to develop.

Folks seem to be a wee bit too emotionally invested in a guy. I'm not saying don't get excited. Maybe just don't jump too far ahead.

Give you an example. Greg Hawgood. 123 Points in 61 games for Kamloops. 5'10", 204 lbs.

And he was a DEFENSEMAN. Yet his best season in the NHL was 77 games, and 38 points.

Pavel Brendl had 134 points and 73 goals when he was drafted. And he was drafted 4th overall.

42 games and 12 points was his NHL career high.

Brendl completely flopped. Alexandre Daigle flopped even harder .

What was the deal with Hawgood ? I dont remember his junior career.

[asian player]

Extreme example, 2 players that are top 5 in the world in offensive talent and also have similar levels of talent.

Droiun and Ehlers don't have similar levels of talent according to most scouting reports.

Drouin is 2.35 ppg, Ehlers is 1.65 ppg, approx. 2 more points for every 3 games played. Ehlers' ppg goes down to 1.47 in the 17 games without Drouin, but to be fair I don't think its a large enough same size

Malkin and Crosby are 2 of the best in the NHL

Drouin and Ehlers are 2 of the best in the QMJHL

[TGokou]

MacKinnon only played 44 games, his ppg was 1.70, Ehlers had 1.65 ppg, I think you knew this too, yet you still posted the above, what's wrong with you?

Regardless, it's more than just stats, Look at multiple mock drafts from 2013, the experts had him ranked 1, 2 or 3. General consensus ehlers is lower than 6, there are a couple that have him higher. You cannot compare the two.

LOL, I think our sarcasm flew over your head because we really weren't trying to compare them just to show the fallacy of your argument that because Ehlers played with Drouin you think none of his points that he had with him are valid.

On one side you agree with me that without Douin his points would decrease from 104 to 85-100, then you say Ehlers would get even more points because of the extra icetime he would get without Drouin....?

I agree that it's likely that Ehlers points would most likely decrease without Drouin in the lineup and that he would most likely end up with 85-100 points with the current icetime he is getting. I then added in that Ehlers would likely get more points to make up for that shortfall because he would get extra icetime.

Remember, Ehlers got 104 points and Drouin had 108 points so if your unwilling to attribute Ehler's points because he got them from Drouin then you have to look at it in reverse and say that Drouin had less points because he played with Ehler.

[BanTSN]

The reality is, until he laces them up in the NHL and plays a few SEASONS, we don't really know where he's going to develop or how he's going to develop.

Folks seem to be a wee bit too emotionally invested in a guy. I'm not saying don't get excited. Maybe just don't jump too far ahead.

Give you an example. Greg Hawgood. 123 Points in 61 games for Kamloops. 5'10", 204 lbs.

And he was a DEFENSEMAN. Yet his best season in the NHL was 77 games, and 38 points.

Pavel Brendl had 134 points and 73 goals when he was drafted. And he was drafted 4th overall.

42 games and 12 points was his NHL career high.

There's been a lot of junior level scorers who never scored anything significant in the NHL.

Even some NHL goons, like Tom Sestito, were junior level scorers.

Junior level scoring is virtually meaningless. You have to look at whether he'll transfer that to the NHL. And you have to look at what else he brings to the table. If Ehlers isn't providing offense, what's he going to do?

[Absent Canuck]

No, I meant that for every time that Ehlers scored a goal, I'd keep a tally for every time that Drouin had an assist on it OR if Ehlers recorded an assist, I'd ALSO put a tally for every time Drouin also assisted on that point or scored that point.

I only did it because I wanted to see how much of Ehlers's points had anything to do with Drouin. Exactly 50% of his points had anything to do with Drouin. I just wanted to see how legit this 30% thing is, and turns out it's really 50%.

Anyway, I agree with all your points and etc... just wanted to point out that it's really 50% if we're going to talk about how much Drouin has contributed to Ehlers success or how much Ehlers has contributed to Drouin's success.

The guy on HF Boards put them up via SH, EV and PP and those totals came to 30% . Ergo 70% Drouin was not involved. If you go back a few pages on this thread someone quotes the link directly to the post so you can see the stats.

50% for for guys playing on separate lines doesnt seem realistic to me. Can you give me a link to those stats and the methodology used?

Can you show us where you got your stats ?

[Absent Canuck]

LOL, I think our sarcasm flew over your head because we really weren't trying to compare them just to show the fallacy of your argument that because Ehlers played with Drouin you think none of his points that he had with him are valid.

I agree that it's likely that Ehlers points would most likely decrease without Drouin in the lineup and that he would most likely end up with 85-100 points with the current icetime he is getting. I then added in that Ehlers would likely get more points to make up for that shortfall because he would get extra icetime.

Remember, Ehlers got 104 points and Drouin had 108 points so if your unwilling to attribute Ehler's points because he got them from Drouin then you have to look at it in reverse and say that Drouin had less points because he played with Ehler.

He would have got 93 points in 63 games. That is what the pace he had without Drouin in the line up at all. His haters dont want to accept it because to accept is to put a pretty large dent in any remaining critique of the guy.

Here is the thing though. It is irrelevant if his haters throw the stats out because it doesnt support their argument. We dont 'throw out' stats of other prospects because it doesnt fit with our agenda. That is belligerent.

Ehlers is by far the most talked about prospect anywhere in Hockey world. More than Ekblad. More than Reinhart. He has more hits to his thread than anyone else. Ekblad is second .

When the scouts saw him play, and saw his stats, they saw the 25 points in 17 games. its not a full season but its the best you got to see his true worth on his own.

If you were a scout , would you not take that into consideration? Of course you would and so will they. Just use your common sense and quit arguing with these guys. The arguing is completely irrelevant to Ehlers draft position.

[petrov]

Its was the same when Skinner was taken in 2010. Niedereitter and Connolly were taken before him because they were bigger. Skinner is , was and will always be a better player. Its a no brainer to take Ehlers!!

[saucypass]

The guy on HF Boards put them up via SH, EV and PP and those totals came to 30% . Ergo 70% Drouin was not involved. If you go back a few pages on this thread someone quotes the link directly to the post so you can see the stats.

50% for for guys playing on separate lines doesnt seem realistic to me. Can you give me a link to those stats and the methodology used?

Can you show us where you got your stats ?

No problem, here is the official QMJHL website: http://theqmjhl.ca/schedule/list/date/all/subseason/219/team/57/time_zone/0

This link provides all the boxscores for every single Halifax Moosehead game recorded this year.

If you click on the third icon from your left under "details" it should open up the boxscore to the Halifax Moosehead game.

In it, it should show all the goals and assists recorded in that ONE game. It also shows WHO scored the goal and WHO assisted on it.

What I did was open up EVERY SINGLE Halfiax Moosehead game and searched for Ehlers's name. For every time Ehlers recorded a goal or an assist, I'd check to see if Drouin also registered a goal or an assist on the SAME point.

Then for every time that happened I'd keep a tally for it. After going through EVERY SINGLE Halifax Moosehead game, Drouin was in on 52 of Ehlers's points.

I know it sounds time consuming but it only took me 20 minutes to search through all of them.

I'm not sure if I explained myself very well so just let me know so I can hopefully re-explain it better.