Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[I.Am.Ironman]

And she continues to climb... crazy. I got some serious fomo over here. It is taking everything I have to stay calm and ride it out for the dip that doesn't seem to be coming. Really hoping earnings bump it back for a bit. The world isn't moving, the value of companies aren't rising

 

[inane]

Made 30% on SHOP in like a week or something. Nuts.

[I.Am.Ironman]

I'm surprised that oil is still going down following the big oil cut

[HI5]

1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

And she continues to climb... crazy. I got some serious fomo over here. It is taking everything I have to stay calm and ride it out for the dip that doesn't seem to be coming. Really hoping earnings bump it back for a bit. The world isn't moving, the value of companies aren't rising

 

Seems like a lot of people are well positioned to be buying right now, and government throwing money at these corporations. 

 

1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

I'm surprised that oil is still going down following the big oil cut

Demand is still low and we still have a glut of oil so ideally it should go lower; expected it to be slightly bullish for a bit considering how the markets been going lately. 

[Boudrias]

1 hour ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

And she continues to climb... crazy. I got some serious fomo over here. It is taking everything I have to stay calm and ride it out for the dip that doesn't seem to be coming. Really hoping earnings bump it back for a bit. The world isn't moving, the value of companies aren't rising

 

I'm 6.5% away from being even on the year. I have my allocations set and still have 16% cash waiting to go back in. My target buying point will be when the market drifts down to the YoY lows. 

 

Huge amount of liquidity in markets. I am assuming that eventually investors will continue to move assets into equities rather than bonds. Also have a allocation of 12% gold. 

I guess we will see where this shakes out by June/July. If a vaccine comes along it will be positive for markets. 

[I.Am.Ironman]

46 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I'm 6.5% away from being even on the year. I have my allocations set and still have 16% cash waiting to go back in. My target buying point will be when the market drifts down to the YoY lows. 

 

Huge amount of liquidity in markets. I am assuming that eventually investors will continue to move assets into equities rather than bonds. Also have a allocation of 12% gold. 

I guess we will see where this shakes out by June/July. If a vaccine comes along it will be positive for markets. 

So if you had mostly cash waiting on the sidelines would you wait it out?

 

My approach right now, because I am 90% cash (bought some XEG the other day) I am waiting for another dip which I expect to come when companies start posting earnings over the next 2 weeks. But this market doesn't seem to be following logic so who knows.

 

Patience is hard.

Edited April 14, 2020 by I.Am.Ironman

[Boudrias]

I don't expect much predictability until Q3 or even Q4. Like I said I won't move more money in until we hit the March lows again. That might not happen . As you said patience is hard so I will stick to my criteria. 

[Warhippy]

And there's the plunge again.

 

I still think it will look more like a W with added peaks and valleys.  IMF and major bankers predicting the worst global economic year since the 1930s.  Home sales for March are in and it's abysmal, a record drop.  20% less year over year in the GTA alone, with a 14% drop nationally.  Regardless of where prices sit that's a massive drop in sales.  The BoC opting at this point to keep rates unchanged but banks doing whatever they will with theirs.  

 

This is going to be a very strange year.

 

https://liveindex.org/americas/

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Warhippy

[I.Am.Ironman]

Energy and Financials are getting hammered so far today

[Warhippy]

13 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

Energy and Financials are getting hammered so far today

A lot of worry about upcoming reports.  Financial is expected to show massive loans backed by essentially nothing

[Boudrias]

11 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

A lot of worry about upcoming reports.  Financial is expected to show massive loans backed by essentially nothing

Where are you getting your info? Anytime I dealt with a bank they wanted guarantees up the ying yang. The MIC's I own have halted redemptions for the foreseeable future. 

[Warhippy]

21 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Where are you getting your info? Anytime I dealt with a bank they wanted guarantees up the ying yang. The MIC's I own have halted redemptions for the foreseeable future. 

Great read up about how banks have fueled massive credit debt by forcing loans/credit out the door to people and companies that were at largest risk of default

 

As evidenced by the last few days of reporting about a massive wave of defaults about to hit banks globally

 

https://cbs2iowa.com/news/coronavirus/banks-brace-for-big-loan-defaults-by-us-global-customers

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-results/jpmorgan-profit-plunges-as-banks-brace-for-coronavirus-hit-idUSKCN21W1BW

 

Oil companies in the shale basins defaulting as was spoken about a month ago

 

https://www.ft.com/content/15687d3c-6248-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

 

Finally, businesses at risk of default now are unable to secure more credit/loans at this time from numerous banks leading to worries about further defaults, insolvencies.

 

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/banks-shutting-the-door-on-borrowers-in-virus-hit-industries-20200414-p54jol

 

Financial markets are just starting to see the bigger scope of things from what I am reading which is scaring people away in droves.  The house of cards hasn't tumbled yet, but it looks like it very well could.

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Warhippy

[CBH1926]

Bought Abbott labs on March 23rd, up 43% so far, great company been in business for 132 years.

[CBH1926]

20 hours ago, Boudrias said:

I'm 6.5% away from being even on the year. I have my allocations set and still have 16% cash waiting to go back in. My target buying point will be when the market drifts down to the YoY lows. 

 

Huge amount of liquidity in markets. I am assuming that eventually investors will continue to move assets into equities rather than bonds. Also have a allocation of 12% gold. 

I guess we will see where this shakes out by June/July. If a vaccine comes along it will be positive for markets. 

I am up for the year and I am beating djia by a very healthy margin.

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

And there's the plunge again.

 

I still think it will look more like a W with added peaks and valleys.  IMF and major bankers predicting the worst global economic year since the 1930s.  Home sales for March are in and it's abysmal, a record drop.  20% less year over year in the GTA alone, with a 14% drop nationally.  Regardless of where prices sit that's a massive drop in sales.  The BoC opting at this point to keep rates unchanged but banks doing whatever they will with theirs.  

 

This is going to be a very strange year.

 

https://liveindex.org/americas/

 

 

It's hard but sitting here, waiting patiently for house prices to follow suit...

[Warhippy]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

It's hard but sitting here, waiting patiently for house prices to follow suit...

The next 6 weeks is going to start looking very very bad for prices I think.  Locally a ton of homes are actually being pulled OFF the market.  These are homes that needed to sell for some.  I am thinking that will be repeated nationally in short order

 

[aGENT]

13 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

The next 6 weeks is going to start looking very very bad for prices I think.  Locally a ton of homes are actually being pulled OFF the market.  These are homes that needed to sell for some.  I am thinking that will be repeated nationally in short order

 

Yup... Just hard waiting when you also need a house lol. But I expect the next 6-8 weeks to start seeing prices drop.

 

The few new listings there are all still seem to be going up at last month's prices. Unfortunately some we were interested in even sold at/near asking in the last few weeks. 

[Warhippy]

5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yup... Just hard waiting when you also need a house lol. But I expect the next 6-8 weeks to start seeing prices drop.

 

The few new listings there are all still seem to be going up at last month's prices. Unfortunately some we were interested in even sold at/near asking in the last few weeks. 

The issue is if prices don't drop.  You'll see more homes/condos hitting the market as people look to cash in.  Which will lead to a further glut of home sales on the market that are not moving.  This will push inventory way up and as prices don't move and neither do houses it will just snowball until it finally starts to come down explosively.  

 

Prices should have been coming down in conjunction with the lower sales numbers.  But they haven't.  This will be like oil, more supply more production, less purchase less need.  Prices tanked.

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

The issue is if prices don't drop.  You'll see more homes/condos hitting the market as people look to cash in.  Which will lead to a further glut of home sales on the market that are not moving.  This will push inventory way up and as prices don't move and neither do houses it will just snowball until it finally starts to come down explosively.  

 

Prices should have been coming down in conjunction with the lower sales numbers.  But they haven't.  This will be like oil, more supply more production, less purchase less need.  Prices tanked.

Fingers crossed.

[Warhippy]

4 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Fingers crossed.

I'm not sure I am crossing my fingers now looking at this.  A measured reduction is preferred.  But this looks like a precipitous drop.  20% or more in one shot before people can register what's going on if these doom and gloom projections are to be taken seriously.  That's on the rosier side of things as well.  If the government wasn't coughing up $2k a month we'd already be seeing the start of that.